Hrant Mikaelian - State of the Armenian Economy in the First Half of 2024 | Ep 350, Aug 3, 2024

Chapters

1. 00:00 Intro to show with economist Hrant Mikaelian
2. 00:21 Reminder: GIVE to Groong, become a SUSTAINING member!
3. 00:39 Listeners: comment and discuss on our youtube video pages
4. 00:59 What do the numbers say about the Armenian economy in H1/2024?
5. 01:42 Slightly cooling economy, but...
6. 02:00 How were Q1 high growth rate stats manipulated?
7. 02:46 What's behind continuing skyrocketing Armenian re-exports to Russia in 2024?
8. 03:31 The distortion in Export and Import statistics
9. 04:46 Significance of the metals, precious stones, jewelry, in export/re-export stats
10. 05:31 What's the nature of these re-exports?
11. 06:16 State revenue picture
12. 06:56 Projections were too rosy
13. 07:08 Estimated inflation was too high, inflation is down
14. 07:58 Government spending through H1/2024
15. 09:05 Salary spend is up: significantly: police salaries
16. 09:38 National debt stands at $12.2B as of now
17. 10:16 Increase of internal debt vs. external debt
18. 10:43 The appreciated Dram's effect on Dollar denominated debt
19. 11:32 Increase in social expenditures
20. 11:52 Worry less about size of the debt, discuss more type of spending
21. 12:11 Finance picture: was interest rate cut in response to a slowing economy?
22. 12:42 Is the interest rate right for this economy? How is it affecting it?
23. 13:05 Incentives for equipment & capital investments were good, but being phased down
24. 13:26 Re-exports covering up a lot of issues
25. 14:17 How is the strength of the Dram affecting the economy?
26. 15:27 Why is tourism down?
27. 17:08 Consumer & mortgage loans: what's drivign this activity?
28. 18:21 What resources and indicators of the Armenian economy are available to people?
29. 18:47 Labor & real estate indicators
30. 19:02 Diverging signals from property markets and labor markets
31. 19:48 How reliable are Armenian economy indicators vs Western/US indicators?
32. 21:05 5-7% growth is ok!
33. 21:47 About Hrant Mikaeliian