Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin has been the central figure in Russia’s management of the South Caucasus for over two decades. His administration brokered the November 9, 2020 ceasefire that ended the 44-Day War, deployed Russian peacekeepers to Nagorno Karabakh (Artsakh), and positioned Russia as the indispensable mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan. That architecture has since collapsed: Russia failed to prevent the Lachin Corridor blockade , took no action during Azerbaijan’s September 2023 offensive that resulted in the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh’s entire Armenian population, and watched as Armenia systematically withdrew from Russian-led security and economic structures.

The Ukraine War , which Putin launched in February 2022, fundamentally altered Russia’s capacity and willingness to act in the South Caucasus. With military resources committed to Ukraine and diplomatic isolation from the West deepening, Moscow’s ability to enforce its South Caucasus commitments diminished sharply. Putin’s personal relationships with Aliyev and Pashinyan — and his apparent willingness to tolerate Azerbaijan’s territorial advances — have become a template for how great-power guarantees can unravel when the guarantor’s interests diverge from the guaranteed party’s needs.

Groong covers Putin’s role in South Caucasus affairs through direct analysis of Russian policy, tracking of the peace process mediation formats, and assessment of what Russian withdrawal from its traditional mediating role means for the durability of any future Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement.

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