Last updated: June 11, 2026
The Russian Invasion and Its Timing
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a strategic turning point whose consequences continue to reshape the South Caucasus. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it unleashed a war that would absorb Russian military capacity, provoke Western sanctions, and fundamentally alter Moscow’s ability to function as a regional hegemon. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, rather than remaining a European problem, became the primary lens through which Armenia had to recalculate its own security and geopolitical position. The Russian invasion of Ukraine came at the worst possible moment for Armenia—just as Yerevan was still reeling from the 2020 44-Day War , while Russian peacekeepers were deployed in Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh ), and while Armenia remained dependent on Moscow for security guarantees that were about to become far less credible.
Russia’s Constrained Capacity and the Credibility Crisis
The Ukraine war stretched Russian military capacity to near-breaking point, diminished Moscow’s leverage as a security guarantor in the South Caucasus, and accelerated the credibility crisis of the CSTO — the collective security alliance that Armenia had relied on since 1992. Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine meant that Russia could not effectively deter Azerbaijan, could not rapidly resupply Armenian forces, and could not credibly threaten to intervene on Armenia’s behalf. The Russia-Ukraine conflict became a test of whether Russia’s security commitments to smaller states meant anything at all. The answers that emerged were sobering for states depending on Russian protection.
Beyond military constraints, the Ukraine war fundamentally altered Russia’s relationship with Azerbaijan . As Western sanctions isolated Russia from global energy markets, Azerbaijan became strategically indispensable: the country re-packaged Russian energy and resold it to Europeans who were formally sanctioning Russia, providing Moscow with a crucial workaround to maintain revenue flows. Additionally, Azerbaijan emerged as a vital land communication corridor between Russia and Iran and the broader Middle East—a route of growing importance as Russia faced isolation from Europe. These economic and logistical dependencies meant that Russia could not afford to pressure or punish Azerbaijan, even as Azerbaijan threatened Armenia. The Russia-Ukraine conflict thus inverted Russia’s incentives in the South Caucasus: rather than deterring Azerbaijani aggression, Russia had reasons to accommodate Azerbaijani interests.
Direct Impact on Armenia’s Security
For Armenia, the Ukraine War’s most direct and catastrophic consequence was the removal of Russia as an available security backstop at the moment Armenia needed one most. The September 2023 Azerbaijani offensive—which resulted in the ethnic cleansing of the entire Armenian population of Artsakh—occurred against a backdrop of Russian military preoccupation with Ukraine and diplomatic isolation from the West. The Russian peacekeeping force deployed in Artsakh under the November 2020 ceasefire could not prevent the 2023 operation. Russia’s attention was elsewhere; the Armenian population of Artsakh—120,000 people who had expected protection from the ceasefire agreement—were ultimately on their own. The war also disrupted Russian arms supplies to Armenia, cut off technology transfers, and made Moscow an unreliable partner for defense procurement. The Russia-Ukraine conflict thus forced Armenia to rapidly diversify its security partnerships and pursue weapons from France, India, and other sources—a process that would have taken far longer without the urgency imposed by Russian unavailability.
The Western Pivot
The Ukraine war shifted the strategic calculations for Armenia’s Western alignment. As Pashinyan and Civil Contract reassessed Armenia’s position in a world where Russia could not be trusted, the pivot toward France, the EU, India, and the United States became not just geopolitically logical but strategically imperative. The war in Ukraine provided political cover to justify Armenia’s reorientation—it was not ideological choice but strategic necessity. Western governments, for their part, saw in Armenia an opportunity to build leverage in the South Caucasus and to bind a historically Russian-aligned state closer to the Euro-Atlantic orbit. The Ukraine war thus became the catalyst for Armenia’s geopolitical realignment, though the realignment would remain incomplete and contested, particularly as Armenia continued to depend on Russian energy, trade, and historical ties.
Groong’s Coverage and Analysis
Groong covers the Ukraine War not as a standalone topic but as a variable that shapes every calculation in Armenian foreign policy. Episodes in this category examine how Russia’s military capacity, diplomatic constraints, and weakened regional position affect Russian behavior in the South Caucasus, whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict has fundamentally altered Armenia’s security environment, the viability of different negotiating formats for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process , and the broader restructuring of European and Eurasian security that the war has accelerated. The conflict illuminates the reality that regional powers face new constraints in projecting influence, and that smaller states must continuously adapt their security strategies to changing circumstances beyond their control.
Below are all Groong episodes tagged with Ukraine War.
Episode 219 | Recorded: January 29, 2023
Episode 219 | Recorded: January 29, 2023
Conversations on Groong - Jan 18, 2023
Episode 209 | Recorded: January 18, 2023
Conversations on Groong - Jan 18, 2023
Episode 209 | Recorded: January 18, 2023
Episode 206 | Recorded: January 15, 2023
Episode 206 | Recorded: January 15, 2023
Episode 197 | Recorded: January 3, 2023
Episode 197 | Recorded: January 3, 2023
“Aliyev’s strategy is ’no Armenians, no problems’. What is our strategy?” -Benyamin Poghosyan
More than 120,000 people remain trapped in the Republic of Artsakh (or Nagorno-Karabakh) due to Azerbaijan’s blockade of the Lachin corridor, as this crisis enters its 16th day.
This interview is a continuation of the collaboration between Groong and 168 Hours aiming to bring you more English-language coverage on the developments of this
Read More“Aliyev’s strategy is ’no Armenians, no problems’. What is our strategy?” -Benyamin Poghosyan
More than 120,000 people remain trapped in the Republic of Artsakh (or Nagorno-Karabakh) due to Azerbaijan’s blockade of the Lachin corridor, as this crisis enters its 16th day.
This interview is a continuation of the collaboration between Groong and 168 Hours aiming to bring you more English-language coverage on the developments of this
Read MoreEpisode 194 | Recorded: December 26, 2022
Episode 194 | Recorded: December 26, 2022
“The problem is not resources or power, the problem is how you put forward your goals”
The blockade of Artsakh is now 13 days old. More than 120,000 people remain trapped in the Republic of Artsakh (or Nagorno-Karabakh). Supermarket shelves are empty. Essential medicine is running out.
On Friday, December 23, thatâs yesterday, a meeting between
Read More“The problem is not resources or power, the problem is how you put forward your goals”
The blockade of Artsakh is now 13 days old. More than 120,000 people remain trapped in the Republic of Artsakh (or Nagorno-Karabakh). Supermarket shelves are empty. Essential medicine is running out.
On Friday, December 23, thatâs yesterday, a meeting between
Read More“Turkish threats are going to disappear only when there is no Armenia” - Varuzhan Geghamyan
“Turkish threats are going to disappear only when there is no Armenia” - Varuzhan Geghamyan
âPashinyan, why don’t you go and shake Artak Beglaryanâs hand, like you did in Shushi in 2019â - Tevan Poghosyan
This is Day 9 of the blockade of Artsakh by Azerbaijan. This interview is a continuation of the collaboration between Groong and 168 Hours aiming to bring you more
Read MoreâPashinyan, why don’t you go and shake Artak Beglaryanâs hand, like you did in Shushi in 2019â - Tevan Poghosyan
This is Day 9 of the blockade of Artsakh by Azerbaijan. This interview is a continuation of the collaboration between Groong and 168 Hours aiming to bring you more
Read MoreWeâre going on to Day 6 of the Artsakh Blockade by Azerbaijan, and Groong and 168 Hours are teaming up to bring you more English-language coverage on the developments of this very serious issue, a major humanitarian crisis in Artsakh in progress.
“We somehow have this complex. We think weâre the sleeping beauty and the west is going to come and save us. And every time that it
Read MoreWeâre going on to Day 6 of the Artsakh Blockade by Azerbaijan, and Groong and 168 Hours are teaming up to bring you more English-language coverage on the developments of this very serious issue, a major humanitarian crisis in Artsakh in progress.
“We somehow have this complex. We think weâre the sleeping beauty and the west is going to come and save us. And every time that it
Read MoreEpisode 182 | Recorded: December 13, 2022
Episode 182 | Recorded: December 13, 2022
Episode 179 | Recorded: November 21, 2022
Episode 179 | Recorded: November 21, 2022
Episode 173 | Recorded: November 1, 2022
Episode 173 | Recorded: November 1, 2022
Episode 167 | Recorded: October 10, 2022
Episode 167 | Recorded: October 10, 2022
Episode 165 | Recorded: Sunday, September 18, 2022
Episode 165 | Recorded: Sunday, September 18, 2022
Armenian News Network - Groong Week in Review - Sep 11, 2022
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Index: 00:00:00 Intro 00:00:52 Guests 00:01:18 Topics 00:02:20 Greetings 00:02:24 MPG and IRI Poll Results 00:21:54 Armenian Economy Dynamics 00:37:13 US-Armenia Relations 00:48:06 Geopolitics, the War in Ukraine 00:55:14 Rants, Personal Statements 00:56:17 Good byes 00:56:27 Closing comments
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Armenian News Network - Groong Week in Review - Sep 11, 2022
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Index: 00:00:00 Intro 00:00:52 Guests 00:01:18 Topics 00:02:20 Greetings 00:02:24 MPG and IRI Poll Results 00:21:54 Armenian Economy Dynamics 00:37:13 US-Armenia Relations 00:48:06 Geopolitics, the War in Ukraine 00:55:14 Rants, Personal Statements 00:56:17 Good byes 00:56:27 Closing comments
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Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - August 21, 2022
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Guest: Dr. Arthur Khachikyan
Hosts:
Hovik Manucharyan TW/@HovikYerevan Asbed Bedrossian TW/@qubriq
Episode 160 | Recorded: Sunday, August 28, 2022
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - August 21, 2022
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Guest: Dr. Arthur Khachikyan
Hosts:
Hovik Manucharyan TW/@HovikYerevan Asbed Bedrossian TW/@qubriq
Episode 160 | Recorded: Sunday, August 28, 2022
Armeniaâs Economy in 2022 - PART 1 Conversation with Vardan Aramyan
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Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/CoG-20220812.html Episode 154 | Recorded on Friday, August 5, 2022
Armeniaâs Economy in 2022 - PART 1 Conversation with Vardan Aramyan
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Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/CoG-20220812.html Episode 154 | Recorded on Friday, August 5, 2022
ANN/Groong Week in Review - August 7, 2022
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Episode 152 | Recorded: Monday, August 8, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220807.html
ANN/Groong Week in Review - August 7, 2022
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Episode 152 | Recorded: Monday, August 8, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220807.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - July 10, 2022
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Episode 146 | Recorded: Monday, July 11, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220710.html
#armenian #news
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - July 10, 2022
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Episode 146 | Recorded: Monday, July 11, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220710.html
#armenian #news
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - June 26, 2022
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Episode 144 | Recorded: Monday, June 27, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220626.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - June 26, 2022
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Episode 144 | Recorded: Monday, June 27, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220626.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - June 12, 2022
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Episode 142 | Recorded: Monday, June 13, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220612.html
#lavrov #armeniannews
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - June 12, 2022
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Episode 142 | Recorded: Monday, June 13, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220612.html
#lavrov #armeniannews
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - June 5, 2022
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Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan / TW/@Benyamin_Poghos
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Hovik Manucharyan TW/@HovikYerevan Asbed Bedrossian TW/@qubriq Episode 141 | Recorded: Monday, June 6, 2022
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - June 5, 2022
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Guests:
Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan / TW/@Benyamin_Poghos
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Hovik Manucharyan TW/@HovikYerevan Asbed Bedrossian TW/@qubriq Episode 141 | Recorded: Monday, June 6, 2022
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 29, 2022
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00:00 Introduction
02:27 Russiaâs Geopolitics: Weâll get an update on the war as well as trying to understand what Russiaâs endgame is in Ukraine and how it may affect our region.
23:10 Armenia-Russia Relations: Next, we try to understand the dynamics of Armenia-Russian relations as well as the outlook for the future.
42:38 Israeli Interests and Armenia: Lastly, taking advantage of our guestâs area of expertise, we look at Israeli-Armenian relations, the history of failures in this
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 29, 2022
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00:00 Introduction
02:27 Russiaâs Geopolitics: Weâll get an update on the war as well as trying to understand what Russiaâs endgame is in Ukraine and how it may affect our region.
23:10 Armenia-Russia Relations: Next, we try to understand the dynamics of Armenia-Russian relations as well as the outlook for the future.
42:38 Israeli Interests and Armenia: Lastly, taking advantage of our guestâs area of expertise, we look at Israeli-Armenian relations, the history of failures in this
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 22, 2022
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Episode 139 | Recorded: Monday, May 23, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220522.html #zartnirlao
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 22, 2022
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Episode 139 | Recorded: Monday, May 23, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220522.html #zartnirlao
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 15, 2022
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Episode 137 | Recorded: Tuesday, May 16, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220515.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 15, 2022
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Episode 137 | Recorded: Tuesday, May 16, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220515.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 8, 2022
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Episode 135 | Recorded: Tuesday, May 10, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220508.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 8, 2022
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Episode 135 | Recorded: Tuesday, May 10, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220508.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 1, 2022
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Episode 134 | Recorded: Monday, May 2, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220501.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - May 1, 2022
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Episode 134 | Recorded: Monday, May 2, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220501.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - April 24, 2022
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Episode 133 | Recorded: Monday, April 25, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220424.html
Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - April 24, 2022
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Episode 133 | Recorded: Monday, April 25, 2022 Website: https://groong.org/podcasts/WiR-20220424.html