Ukraine War

Last updated: June 11, 2026

The Russian Invasion and Its Timing

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a strategic turning point whose consequences continue to reshape the South Caucasus. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it unleashed a war that would absorb Russian military capacity, provoke Western sanctions, and fundamentally alter Moscow’s ability to function as a regional hegemon. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, rather than remaining a European problem, became the primary lens through which Armenia had to recalculate its own security and geopolitical position. The Russian invasion of Ukraine came at the worst possible moment for Armenia—just as Yerevan was still reeling from the 2020 44-Day War , while Russian peacekeepers were deployed in Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh ), and while Armenia remained dependent on Moscow for security guarantees that were about to become far less credible.

Russia’s Constrained Capacity and the Credibility Crisis

The Ukraine war stretched Russian military capacity to near-breaking point, diminished Moscow’s leverage as a security guarantor in the South Caucasus, and accelerated the credibility crisis of the CSTO — the collective security alliance that Armenia had relied on since 1992. Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine meant that Russia could not effectively deter Azerbaijan, could not rapidly resupply Armenian forces, and could not credibly threaten to intervene on Armenia’s behalf. The Russia-Ukraine conflict became a test of whether Russia’s security commitments to smaller states meant anything at all. The answers that emerged were sobering for states depending on Russian protection.

Beyond military constraints, the Ukraine war fundamentally altered Russia’s relationship with Azerbaijan . As Western sanctions isolated Russia from global energy markets, Azerbaijan became strategically indispensable: the country re-packaged Russian energy and resold it to Europeans who were formally sanctioning Russia, providing Moscow with a crucial workaround to maintain revenue flows. Additionally, Azerbaijan emerged as a vital land communication corridor between Russia and Iran and the broader Middle East—a route of growing importance as Russia faced isolation from Europe. These economic and logistical dependencies meant that Russia could not afford to pressure or punish Azerbaijan, even as Azerbaijan threatened Armenia. The Russia-Ukraine conflict thus inverted Russia’s incentives in the South Caucasus: rather than deterring Azerbaijani aggression, Russia had reasons to accommodate Azerbaijani interests.

Direct Impact on Armenia’s Security

For Armenia, the Ukraine War’s most direct and catastrophic consequence was the removal of Russia as an available security backstop at the moment Armenia needed one most. The September 2023 Azerbaijani offensive—which resulted in the ethnic cleansing of the entire Armenian population of Artsakh—occurred against a backdrop of Russian military preoccupation with Ukraine and diplomatic isolation from the West. The Russian peacekeeping force deployed in Artsakh under the November 2020 ceasefire could not prevent the 2023 operation. Russia’s attention was elsewhere; the Armenian population of Artsakh—120,000 people who had expected protection from the ceasefire agreement—were ultimately on their own. The war also disrupted Russian arms supplies to Armenia, cut off technology transfers, and made Moscow an unreliable partner for defense procurement. The Russia-Ukraine conflict thus forced Armenia to rapidly diversify its security partnerships and pursue weapons from France, India, and other sources—a process that would have taken far longer without the urgency imposed by Russian unavailability.

The Western Pivot

The Ukraine war shifted the strategic calculations for Armenia’s Western alignment. As Pashinyan and Civil Contract reassessed Armenia’s position in a world where Russia could not be trusted, the pivot toward France, the EU, India, and the United States became not just geopolitically logical but strategically imperative. The war in Ukraine provided political cover to justify Armenia’s reorientation—it was not ideological choice but strategic necessity. Western governments, for their part, saw in Armenia an opportunity to build leverage in the South Caucasus and to bind a historically Russian-aligned state closer to the Euro-Atlantic orbit. The Ukraine war thus became the catalyst for Armenia’s geopolitical realignment, though the realignment would remain incomplete and contested, particularly as Armenia continued to depend on Russian energy, trade, and historical ties.

Groong’s Coverage and Analysis

Groong covers the Ukraine War not as a standalone topic but as a variable that shapes every calculation in Armenian foreign policy. Episodes in this category examine how Russia’s military capacity, diplomatic constraints, and weakened regional position affect Russian behavior in the South Caucasus, whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict has fundamentally altered Armenia’s security environment, the viability of different negotiating formats for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process , and the broader restructuring of European and Eurasian security that the war has accelerated. The conflict illuminates the reality that regional powers face new constraints in projecting influence, and that smaller states must continuously adapt their security strategies to changing circumstances beyond their control.

Groong episodes that include this tag

Below are all Groong episodes tagged with Ukraine War.

Guest:

Topics:

  • Iran Parliamentary Elections
  • Geopolitical U-turn in Armenia?
  • Iran Armenia Relations
  • Anti-Iranian Propaganda from NGOs

Episode 314 | Recorded: March 11, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Iran Parliamentary Elections
  • Geopolitical U-turn in Armenia?
  • Iran Armenia Relations
  • Anti-Iranian Propaganda from NGOs

Episode 314 | Recorded: March 11, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • French Connection
  • Russian-Armenian Dialog
  • Negotiations and Risk of War

Episode 311 | Recorded: February 27, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • French Connection
  • Russian-Armenian Dialog
  • Negotiations and Risk of War

Episode 311 | Recorded: February 27, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgia’s search for a modern national identity
  • Politics in Context
  • EU accession process and outlook
  • Armenia-Georgia Strategic Partnership

Episode 308 | Recorded: February 7, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgia’s search for a modern national identity
  • Politics in Context
  • EU accession process and outlook
  • Armenia-Georgia Strategic Partnership

Episode 308 | Recorded: February 7, 2024

Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - Feb 4, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Diplomatic Flurry
    • Raisi in Ankara
    • Raisi in Moscow
    • Putin in Ankara
  • Aliyev’s Constitution for Armenia
  • How can the Opposition become a consequential force?

Episode 306 | Recorded: February 3, 2024

Armenian News Network/Groong Week in Review - Feb 4, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Diplomatic Flurry
    • Raisi in Ankara
    • Raisi in Moscow
    • Putin in Ankara
  • Aliyev’s Constitution for Armenia
  • How can the Opposition become a consequential force?

Episode 306 | Recorded: February 3, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • World in Conflict
    • Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, Middle East
  • Armenia Azerbaijan Negotiations
  • Prognosis for 2024
  • Thoughts from the Participants

Episode 304 | Recorded: January 22, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • World in Conflict
    • Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, Middle East
  • Armenia Azerbaijan Negotiations
  • Prognosis for 2024
  • Thoughts from the Participants

Episode 304 | Recorded: January 22, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • An Armenian in St. Petersburg, Russia
  • Russian Perceptions and Outlook on the War in Ukraine
  • Perceptions of Armenia and Artsakh in Russia
  • World Events that might Affect Outcome of the War in Ukraine
  • Where do Armenia and Artsakh Figure in a New World Order?

Episode 303 | Recorded: January 22, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • An Armenian in St. Petersburg, Russia
  • Russian Perceptions and Outlook on the War in Ukraine
  • Perceptions of Armenia and Artsakh in Russia
  • World Events that might Affect Outcome of the War in Ukraine
  • Where do Armenia and Artsakh Figure in a New World Order?

Episode 303 | Recorded: January 22, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Artsakh President Annuls Dissolution of Republic
  • Insecurity without Borders
  • Pashinyan in St. Petersburg
  • Year-end 2023 Predictions Review
  • Predictions for 2024

Episode 300 | Recorded: December 31, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Artsakh President Annuls Dissolution of Republic
  • Insecurity without Borders
  • Pashinyan in St. Petersburg
  • Year-end 2023 Predictions Review
  • Predictions for 2024

Episode 300 | Recorded: December 31, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Negotiations
    • Strategy, Prisoner Exchange, “Point Zero”
  • The West’s Interests
  • Israel-Gaza Conflict

Episode 299 | Recorded: December 18, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Negotiations
    • Strategy, Prisoner Exchange, “Point Zero”
  • The West’s Interests
  • Israel-Gaza Conflict

Episode 299 | Recorded: December 18, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • “No Peace” Treaty Negotiations
    • Turkish-Azeri goal: Demilitarized Armenia (aka Batumi Treaty 2.0)
    • Humiliating Swap of Azeri Criminals for Armenian Hostages
  • Aliyev Calls for Snap Elections
  • Russia-Armenian Relations
  • Russia-Ukraine War

Episode 297 | Recorded: December 10, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • “No Peace” Treaty Negotiations
    • Turkish-Azeri goal: Demilitarized Armenia (aka Batumi Treaty 2.0)
    • Humiliating Swap of Azeri Criminals for Armenian Hostages
  • Aliyev Calls for Snap Elections
  • Russia-Armenian Relations
  • Russia-Ukraine War

Episode 297 | Recorded: December 10, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian-Azerbaijani Negotiations
  • Armenian Diplomacy in the West
  • Relations with Russia

Episode 296 | Recorded: December 3, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian-Azerbaijani Negotiations
  • Armenian Diplomacy in the West
  • Relations with Russia

Episode 296 | Recorded: December 3, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian Foreign Policy Vectors
  • Latest MPG Poll Result Analysis
  • Armenian Economy and 2024 Budget

Episode 295 | Recorded: Nov 15, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian Foreign Policy Vectors
  • Latest MPG Poll Result Analysis
  • Armenian Economy and 2024 Budget

Episode 295 | Recorded: Nov 15, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Crossroads of Peace
  • 3+3=5 in Tehran
  • Relations with Russia
  • Defense Deal with France
  • Artsakh Status

Episode 291 | Recorded: October 31, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Crossroads of Peace
  • 3+3=5 in Tehran
  • Relations with Russia
  • Defense Deal with France
  • Artsakh Status

Episode 291 | Recorded: October 31, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian National Congress (ANC)
  • Democracy and Armenia
  • Azerbaijan-Armenia Negotiations
  • Artsakh
  • Global Conflicts - Israel, Ukraine

Episode 290 | Recorded: October 27, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian National Congress (ANC)
  • Democracy and Armenia
  • Azerbaijan-Armenia Negotiations
  • Artsakh
  • Global Conflicts - Israel, Ukraine

Episode 290 | Recorded: October 27, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian News & Media Space
    • RFE/RL Azatutyun in the Armenian Media Space
    • Fake News
    • Freedom of Press
  • Politics and Geopolitics of Armenia
  • Artsakh
  • Global Conflicts - Israel, Ukraine

Episode 289 | Recorded: October 26, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian News & Media Space
    • RFE/RL Azatutyun in the Armenian Media Space
    • Fake News
    • Freedom of Press
  • Politics and Geopolitics of Armenia
  • Artsakh
  • Global Conflicts - Israel, Ukraine

Episode 289 | Recorded: October 26, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Outstanding Causes of the Conflict
  • Why did Aliyev Bail out of Granada?
  • Could Azerbaijan Attack Armenia?
  • How Might Events Unfold?

Episode 283 | Recorded: October 5, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Outstanding Causes of the Conflict
  • Why did Aliyev Bail out of Granada?
  • Could Azerbaijan Attack Armenia?
  • How Might Events Unfold?

Episode 283 | Recorded: October 5, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Artsakh Surrenders, Armenia Watches
  • What “Peace Treaty” in Granada?
  • Arrested Artsakh Leaders Held Hostage

Episode 281 | Recorded: October 1, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Artsakh Surrenders, Armenia Watches
  • What “Peace Treaty” in Granada?
  • Arrested Artsakh Leaders Held Hostage

Episode 281 | Recorded: October 1, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Yerevan Mayoral Elections
  • Artsakh Domestic Developments
  • Developments in Geopolitics and Negotiations

Episode 277 | Recorded: Sep 3, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Yerevan Mayoral Elections
  • Artsakh Domestic Developments
  • Developments in Geopolitics and Negotiations

Episode 277 | Recorded: Sep 3, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • War of Words with Russia
  • Iran’s Diplomatic Perspective
  • Armenian-Azerbaijani Negotiations
  • Artsakh: New Parliament Speaker

Episode 272 | Recorded: August 7, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • War of Words with Russia
  • Iran’s Diplomatic Perspective
  • Armenian-Azerbaijani Negotiations
  • Artsakh: New Parliament Speaker

Episode 272 | Recorded: August 7, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian Azerbaijani Negotiations
  • Azerbaijani Propaganda in Shushi
  • Situation in Artsakh

Episode 271 | Recorded: July 31, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian Azerbaijani Negotiations
  • Azerbaijani Propaganda in Shushi
  • Situation in Artsakh

Episode 271 | Recorded: July 31, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • The Wagner Group
  • Special Ops in Russia
  • Over at The Ministry of Defense
  • A White Russian
  • On The Western Front
  • Are We Done Yet?
  • Parallels with 2016 in Armenia?
  • PMCs in Armenia?

Episode 265 | Recorded: June 30, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • The Wagner Group
  • Special Ops in Russia
  • Over at The Ministry of Defense
  • A White Russian
  • On The Western Front
  • Are We Done Yet?
  • Parallels with 2016 in Armenia?
  • PMCs in Armenia?

Episode 265 | Recorded: June 30, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Erdogan Reshuffles Cabinet, First Visit to Baku
  • Latest Developments in Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations, Baku Postpones
  • Economic Developments, More Subsidies to IT Sector
  • MPG Poll: Pashinyan’s Rating is Falling

Episode 252 | Recorded: June 12, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Erdogan Reshuffles Cabinet, First Visit to Baku
  • Latest Developments in Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations, Baku Postpones
  • Economic Developments, More Subsidies to IT Sector
  • MPG Poll: Pashinyan’s Rating is Falling

Episode 252 | Recorded: June 12, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Accelerated Negotiations
    • Negotiations Carousel
    • Meghri Railway
    • Russia Finances Rasht-Astara
    • Rallies in Artsakh and Kornidzor
  • Artsakh Domestic Politics

Episode 256 | Recorded: May 22, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Accelerated Negotiations
    • Negotiations Carousel
    • Meghri Railway
    • Russia Finances Rasht-Astara
    • Rallies in Artsakh and Kornidzor
  • Artsakh Domestic Politics

Episode 256 | Recorded: May 22, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian Genocide: 108 Anniversary
  • Azerbaijan Strangles Artsakh
    • Artsakh Strangled
    • International Community
    • Pashinyan’s Parliament Speech
    • Madrid Principles
    • Aliyev Continues Threats, Ultimatum to Artsakh Armenians
    • What Can Diaspora Do?
  • Israel - Azerbaijan cooperation against Iran?
  • Rants

Episode 249 | Recorded: April 25, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian Genocide: 108 Anniversary
  • Azerbaijan Strangles Artsakh
    • Artsakh Strangled
    • International Community
    • Pashinyan’s Parliament Speech
    • Madrid Principles
    • Aliyev Continues Threats, Ultimatum to Artsakh Armenians
    • What Can Diaspora Do?
  • Israel - Azerbaijan cooperation against Iran?
  • Rants

Episode 249 | Recorded: April 25, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • What agreements were reached between China and Russia?
  • What is the role of India in the new world order?
  • Consequence of moving away from a dollar-denominated global economic order?
  • China as peacemaker in Ukraine
  • China as peacemaker in the Middle East
  • China’s role in Iran and South Caucasus
  • How should Armenia navigate world order changes?

Episode 244 | Recorded: April 5, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • What agreements were reached between China and Russia?
  • What is the role of India in the new world order?
  • Consequence of moving away from a dollar-denominated global economic order?
  • China as peacemaker in Ukraine
  • China as peacemaker in the Middle East
  • China’s role in Iran and South Caucasus
  • How should Armenia navigate world order changes?

Episode 244 | Recorded: April 5, 2023

Guest:

Topic:

  • Azerbaijan Invades, Pashinyan “Explains”
  • Armenia at the Democracy Summit
  • Armenia and the Rome Statute
  • Iran FM in Moscow, Azeri FM in Israel

Episode 242 | Recorded: April 3, 2023

Guest:

Topic:

  • Azerbaijan Invades, Pashinyan “Explains”
  • Armenia at the Democracy Summit
  • Armenia and the Rome Statute
  • Iran FM in Moscow, Azeri FM in Israel

Episode 242 | Recorded: April 3, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Turkish Politics after the Earthquake
  • Artsakh Blockade and Developments
  • Armenian Diplomatic Developments
  • Egyptian President’s Visit to Armenia

Episode 234 | Recorded: March 5, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • Turkish Politics after the Earthquake
  • Artsakh Blockade and Developments
  • Armenian Diplomatic Developments
  • Egyptian President’s Visit to Armenia

Episode 234 | Recorded: March 5, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • 35th Anniversary of the Sumgait Pogroms
  • Turkey after the Earthquake
  • One Year Anniversary of the War in Ukraine
  • Azerbaijan-Armenian Negotiations Continue
  • Personal topics

Episode 232 | Recorded: February 28, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • 35th Anniversary of the Sumgait Pogroms
  • Turkey after the Earthquake
  • One Year Anniversary of the War in Ukraine
  • Azerbaijan-Armenian Negotiations Continue
  • Personal topics

Episode 232 | Recorded: February 28, 2023

Today we’re going to talk with Anna Abrahamian about two or three topics.

  • The Munich Security Conference 2023.
  • We’ll touch on Russian president Putin’s state of the federation address.
  • The latest political developments in Artsakh.

Guest:

  • Anna Abrahamian , a geopolitical analyst who splits her time between Moscow and Athens. Having obtained training in international law, Anna has worked in such noteworthy institutions as the Defense Analyses Institute in Athens as well as the Crisis Group in Brussels. Today, Anna provides her analysis on geopolitics and Armenian politics to her
 Read More

Today we’re going to talk with Anna Abrahamian about two or three topics.

  • The Munich Security Conference 2023.
  • We’ll touch on Russian president Putin’s state of the federation address.
  • The latest political developments in Artsakh.

Guest:

  • Anna Abrahamian , a geopolitical analyst who splits her time between Moscow and Athens. Having obtained training in international law, Anna has worked in such noteworthy institutions as the Defense Analyses Institute in Athens as well as the Crisis Group in Brussels. Today, Anna provides her analysis on geopolitics and Armenian politics to her
 Read More

Guest:

Topics:

  • 35th Anniversary of the Karabakh Movement
  • Russia Warns the EU and Armenia
  • Armenian Azerbaijani Negotiations Continue
  • Personal topics

Episode 226 | Recorded: February 19, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • 35th Anniversary of the Karabakh Movement
  • Russia Warns the EU and Armenia
  • Armenian Azerbaijani Negotiations Continue
  • Personal topics

Episode 226 | Recorded: February 19, 2023

Guest:

Topic:

  • Earthquake in Turkey and Syria
  • Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
    • FM Lavrov’s Interview to Russian Media
    • EU vs CSTO Missions
    • Shifting Public Perceptions
  • Political Shuffles in Yerevan

Episode 224 | Recorded: February 12, 2023

Guest:

Topic:

  • Earthquake in Turkey and Syria
  • Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
    • FM Lavrov’s Interview to Russian Media
    • EU vs CSTO Missions
    • Shifting Public Perceptions
  • Political Shuffles in Yerevan

Episode 224 | Recorded: February 12, 2023