Ukraine War

Last updated: June 11, 2026

The Russian Invasion and Its Timing

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a strategic turning point whose consequences continue to reshape the South Caucasus. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it unleashed a war that would absorb Russian military capacity, provoke Western sanctions, and fundamentally alter Moscow’s ability to function as a regional hegemon. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, rather than remaining a European problem, became the primary lens through which Armenia had to recalculate its own security and geopolitical position. The Russian invasion of Ukraine came at the worst possible moment for Armenia—just as Yerevan was still reeling from the 2020 44-Day War , while Russian peacekeepers were deployed in Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh ), and while Armenia remained dependent on Moscow for security guarantees that were about to become far less credible.

Russia’s Constrained Capacity and the Credibility Crisis

The Ukraine war stretched Russian military capacity to near-breaking point, diminished Moscow’s leverage as a security guarantor in the South Caucasus, and accelerated the credibility crisis of the CSTO — the collective security alliance that Armenia had relied on since 1992. Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine meant that Russia could not effectively deter Azerbaijan, could not rapidly resupply Armenian forces, and could not credibly threaten to intervene on Armenia’s behalf. The Russia-Ukraine conflict became a test of whether Russia’s security commitments to smaller states meant anything at all. The answers that emerged were sobering for states depending on Russian protection.

Beyond military constraints, the Ukraine war fundamentally altered Russia’s relationship with Azerbaijan . As Western sanctions isolated Russia from global energy markets, Azerbaijan became strategically indispensable: the country re-packaged Russian energy and resold it to Europeans who were formally sanctioning Russia, providing Moscow with a crucial workaround to maintain revenue flows. Additionally, Azerbaijan emerged as a vital land communication corridor between Russia and Iran and the broader Middle East—a route of growing importance as Russia faced isolation from Europe. These economic and logistical dependencies meant that Russia could not afford to pressure or punish Azerbaijan, even as Azerbaijan threatened Armenia. The Russia-Ukraine conflict thus inverted Russia’s incentives in the South Caucasus: rather than deterring Azerbaijani aggression, Russia had reasons to accommodate Azerbaijani interests.

Direct Impact on Armenia’s Security

For Armenia, the Ukraine War’s most direct and catastrophic consequence was the removal of Russia as an available security backstop at the moment Armenia needed one most. The September 2023 Azerbaijani offensive—which resulted in the ethnic cleansing of the entire Armenian population of Artsakh—occurred against a backdrop of Russian military preoccupation with Ukraine and diplomatic isolation from the West. The Russian peacekeeping force deployed in Artsakh under the November 2020 ceasefire could not prevent the 2023 operation. Russia’s attention was elsewhere; the Armenian population of Artsakh—120,000 people who had expected protection from the ceasefire agreement—were ultimately on their own. The war also disrupted Russian arms supplies to Armenia, cut off technology transfers, and made Moscow an unreliable partner for defense procurement. The Russia-Ukraine conflict thus forced Armenia to rapidly diversify its security partnerships and pursue weapons from France, India, and other sources—a process that would have taken far longer without the urgency imposed by Russian unavailability.

The Western Pivot

The Ukraine war shifted the strategic calculations for Armenia’s Western alignment. As Pashinyan and Civil Contract reassessed Armenia’s position in a world where Russia could not be trusted, the pivot toward France, the EU, India, and the United States became not just geopolitically logical but strategically imperative. The war in Ukraine provided political cover to justify Armenia’s reorientation—it was not ideological choice but strategic necessity. Western governments, for their part, saw in Armenia an opportunity to build leverage in the South Caucasus and to bind a historically Russian-aligned state closer to the Euro-Atlantic orbit. The Ukraine war thus became the catalyst for Armenia’s geopolitical realignment, though the realignment would remain incomplete and contested, particularly as Armenia continued to depend on Russian energy, trade, and historical ties.

Groong’s Coverage and Analysis

Groong covers the Ukraine War not as a standalone topic but as a variable that shapes every calculation in Armenian foreign policy. Episodes in this category examine how Russia’s military capacity, diplomatic constraints, and weakened regional position affect Russian behavior in the South Caucasus, whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict has fundamentally altered Armenia’s security environment, the viability of different negotiating formats for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process , and the broader restructuring of European and Eurasian security that the war has accelerated. The conflict illuminates the reality that regional powers face new constraints in projecting influence, and that smaller states must continuously adapt their security strategies to changing circumstances beyond their control.

Groong episodes that include this tag

Below are all Groong episodes tagged with Ukraine War.

Guest:

Topics:

  • Supreme Judicial Council Head, MPs resign at Pashinyan’s “Ask”
  • Another Pashinyan Interview, More Scandalous Statements
    • Speed Cameras, Government Officials Cars
    • “Western Azerbaijan” ≠ “Western Armenia”
    • EU Mission in Armenia
  • New Escalation in Ukraine

Episode 387 | Recorded: November 25, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenia Azerbaijan Talks
  • Draft 2025 State Budget
  • Armenian Internal Politics

Episode 385 | Recorded: November 13, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenia Azerbaijan Talks
  • Draft 2025 State Budget
  • Armenian Internal Politics

Episode 385 | Recorded: November 13, 2024

Guest:

Topic:

  • Armenia, Armenian Americans, Artsakh
  • Ukraine War, NATO, China
  • Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran

Episode 384 | Recorded: April 3, 2023

Guest:

Topic:

  • Armenia, Armenian Americans, Artsakh
  • Ukraine War, NATO, China
  • Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran

Episode 384 | Recorded: April 3, 2023

Guest:

Topics:

  • China, and the New World Order
  • BRICS Summit and Multipolarity
    • Armenia at BRICS
  • Georgian Elections in 2024

Episode 382 | Recorded: October 29, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • China, and the New World Order
  • BRICS Summit and Multipolarity
    • Armenia at BRICS
  • Georgian Elections in 2024

Episode 382 | Recorded: October 29, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

On the Major US Presidential Candidates Do Minor Candidates Matter for us? Are We Organized Enough to Influence US Elections? How would Harris or Trump Affect Armenia & Region?

Episode 380 | Recorded: November 1, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

On the Major US Presidential Candidates Do Minor Candidates Matter for us? Are We Organized Enough to Influence US Elections? How would Harris or Trump Affect Armenia & Region?

Episode 380 | Recorded: November 1, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgian Elections in 2024
  • Election Landscape
  • Themes of the Campaigns
  • Comparison with Moldova 2024
  • Outcomes and Expectations

Episode 377 | Recorded: October 23, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgian Elections in 2024
  • Election Landscape
  • Themes of the Campaigns
  • Comparison with Moldova 2024
  • Outcomes and Expectations

Episode 377 | Recorded: October 23, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenia Azerbaijan Talks
  • Elections in Moldova and Georgia
  • Iran Russia Relations
  • BRICS Summit in Kaza, Russia

Episode 376 | Recorded: October 20, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenia Azerbaijan Talks
  • Elections in Moldova and Georgia
  • Iran Russia Relations
  • BRICS Summit in Kaza, Russia

Episode 376 | Recorded: October 20, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian Identity and Integration in the South Caucasus
  • On the Nature and Thinking of the Armenian Constitution
  • Relations with Russia Through Time
  • The Geopolitics Around the South Caucasus

Episode 372 | Recorded: October 2, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenian Identity and Integration in the South Caucasus
  • On the Nature and Thinking of the Armenian Constitution
  • Relations with Russia Through Time
  • The Geopolitics Around the South Caucasus

Episode 372 | Recorded: October 2, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Tavush Protests Gain Momentum
  • Pashinyan Pressing Ahead with Land Concessions
  • Poll Results on Tavush Protests

Episode 371 | Recorded: September 30, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Tavush Protests Gain Momentum
  • Pashinyan Pressing Ahead with Land Concessions
  • Poll Results on Tavush Protests

Episode 371 | Recorded: September 30, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Election, Politics, and The Geopolitical Context
  • Who are the Major External Influencers in Georgia’s Politics?
  • Is Talk of Civilizational Catastrophe, or Rapprochement with Abkhazia/South Ossetia Election-time Populism?
  • Neutrality and Georgian-Armenian Relations

Episode 370 | Recorded: September 21, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Election, Politics, and The Geopolitical Context
  • Who are the Major External Influencers in Georgia’s Politics?
  • Is Talk of Civilizational Catastrophe, or Rapprochement with Abkhazia/South Ossetia Election-time Populism?
  • Neutrality and Georgian-Armenian Relations

Episode 370 | Recorded: September 21, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • What is Neutrality Studies?
  • Rise of the Multi-Polar World

Episode 367 | Recorded: September 18, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • What is Neutrality Studies?
  • Rise of the Multi-Polar World

Episode 367 | Recorded: September 18, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • September 12-13 Anniversary
  • Between Blinken and a Hard Place
  • More USAID for Armenia
  • Georgian Parliamentary Elections

Episode 365 | Recorded: Sep. 17, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • September 12-13 Anniversary
  • Between Blinken and a Hard Place
  • More USAID for Armenia
  • Georgian Parliamentary Elections

Episode 365 | Recorded: Sep. 17, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Election and Politics, and The Geopolitical Context
  • Who are the Major External Influencers in Georgia’s Politics?
  • Why is the EU hell bent against the Law on “Foreign Agents”?
  • Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia Relations

Episode 363 | Recorded: September 11, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Election and Politics, and The Geopolitical Context
  • Who are the Major External Influencers in Georgia’s Politics?
  • Why is the EU hell bent against the Law on “Foreign Agents”?
  • Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia Relations

Episode 363 | Recorded: September 11, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Iran Shuts Down Talk of “Zangezur Corridor”
  • Armenia Azerbaijan Talks
  • Iran Armenia Trade / BRICS
  • Foreign Intelligence Service
  • Georgian and Azerbaijani Elections

Episode 361 | Recorded: September 11, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Iran Shuts Down Talk of “Zangezur Corridor”
  • Armenia Azerbaijan Talks
  • Iran Armenia Trade / BRICS
  • Foreign Intelligence Service
  • Georgian and Azerbaijani Elections

Episode 361 | Recorded: September 11, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Norwegian & NATO Support for Ukraine
  • “The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order”
  • Small States and Multipolarity
  • Armenia’s Position in a Multipolar World

Episode 359 | Recorded: August 30, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Norwegian & NATO Support for Ukraine
  • “The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order”
  • Small States and Multipolarity
  • Armenia’s Position in a Multipolar World

Episode 359 | Recorded: August 30, 2024

Norwegian & NATO Support for Ukraine. “The Ukraine War & the Eurasian World Order”. Small States and Multipolarity. Armenia’s Position in a Multipolar World.

Guest:

Topics:

  • Russian-Iranian Relations
  • Russian-Armenian Relations
  • Ukraine’s Kursk Gambit
  • Pavel Durov Arrested in France
  • Observations from Armenia and Russia

Episode 357 | Recorded: August 28, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Russian-Iranian Relations
  • Russian-Armenian Relations
  • Ukraine’s Kursk Gambit
  • Pavel Durov Arrested in France
  • Observations from Armenia and Russia

Episode 357 | Recorded: August 28, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgian Politics, Amidst Global Currents
  • Attacks Against the Georgian Church
  • Thoughts on Russian and Georgian Relations

Episode 356 | Recorded: Aug 21, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgian Politics, Amidst Global Currents
  • Attacks Against the Georgian Church
  • Thoughts on Russian and Georgian Relations

Episode 356 | Recorded: Aug 21, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

Episode 354 | Recorded: August 17, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

Episode 354 | Recorded: August 17, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Revolutionary Mistakes
  • Nov. 9 Statement, Corridors, Communications
  • Misguided Pivot
  • Turkish Involvement in the 44-Day War

Episode 349 | Recorded: July 31, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Revolutionary Mistakes
  • Nov. 9 Statement, Corridors, Communications
  • Misguided Pivot
  • Turkish Involvement in the 44-Day War

Episode 349 | Recorded: July 31, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • New Leadership Coming to Many Countries
  • Aliyev Continues to Thumb the Nose of The West
  • Permanent US Defense Attaché to Armenia
  • Mid-year Review of our 2024 Predictions

Episode 347 | Recorded: July 22, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • New Leadership Coming to Many Countries
  • Aliyev Continues to Thumb the Nose of The West
  • Permanent US Defense Attaché to Armenia
  • Mid-year Review of our 2024 Predictions

Episode 347 | Recorded: July 22, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Prospect of a Trump Presidency on the Caucasus
  • Update on political prisoners
  • PACE report
  • Referendum on joining EU
  • Bagrat Srbazan Tavush movement

Episode 346 | Recorded: July 18, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Prospect of a Trump Presidency on the Caucasus
  • Update on political prisoners
  • PACE report
  • Referendum on joining EU
  • Bagrat Srbazan Tavush movement

Episode 346 | Recorded: July 18, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Prospect of Trump Presidency on the Caucasus
  • Mirzoyan at NATO Summit in DC
  • Parade of US Officials in Armenia
  • MPG Poll

Episode 345 | Recorded: July 16, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Prospect of Trump Presidency on the Caucasus
  • Mirzoyan at NATO Summit in DC
  • Parade of US Officials in Armenia
  • MPG Poll

Episode 345 | Recorded: July 16, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenia, Azerbaijan, at NATO Summit
  • Border Talks Still in Chaos
    • Srbazan in Syunik
    • Pashinyan in Syunik
  • Srbazan Movement
  • Arms, or Alms for Armenia?
    • Orban, Aliyev’s Man inside the EU
    • Eagle Partner 2024 in Armenia

Episode 342 | Recorded: July 8, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Armenia, Azerbaijan, at NATO Summit
  • Border Talks Still in Chaos
    • Srbazan in Syunik
    • Pashinyan in Syunik
  • Srbazan Movement
  • Arms, or Alms for Armenia?
    • Orban, Aliyev’s Man inside the EU
    • Eagle Partner 2024 in Armenia

Episode 342 | Recorded: July 8, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgian Law on Foreign Agents
  • Politics and Diplomacy of Armenia
  • Parallels and Lessons from Georgia

Episode 332 | Recorded: May 25, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgian Law on Foreign Agents
  • Politics and Diplomacy of Armenia
  • Parallels and Lessons from Georgia

Episode 332 | Recorded: May 25, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • USSR: A common Home & History
  • Georgia’s Foreign Agent Bill
  • Armenia-Georgian Relations

Episode 330 | Recorded: May 17, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • USSR: A common Home & History
  • Georgia’s Foreign Agent Bill
  • Armenia-Georgian Relations

Episode 330 | Recorded: May 17, 2024

Guests:

Topics:

  • Impressions: Raisina 2024 Dialogue
  • Indian Community
  • Trade Opportunities
  • Defense & Security

Episode 327 | Recorded: April 26, 2024

Guests:

Topics:

  • Impressions: Raisina 2024 Dialogue
  • Indian Community
  • Trade Opportunities
  • Defense & Security

Episode 327 | Recorded: April 26, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • 109th Commemorations of the Armenian Genocide
  • Pashinyan Concedes Tavush Territories
  • Russia Withdrawing Peacekeepers from Artsakh

Episode 326 | Recorded: April 24, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • 109th Commemorations of the Armenian Genocide
  • Pashinyan Concedes Tavush Territories
  • Russia Withdrawing Peacekeepers from Artsakh

Episode 326 | Recorded: April 24, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Reactions to Interview with Canadian Ambassador
  • More Concessions Signaled by Pashinyan
  • EU Parliament Resolution on Armenia
  • Fish Rots from the Head

Episode 318 | Recorded: March 18, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Reactions to Interview with Canadian Ambassador
  • More Concessions Signaled by Pashinyan
  • EU Parliament Resolution on Armenia
  • Fish Rots from the Head

Episode 318 | Recorded: March 18, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Establishment of Canadian Embassy in Armenia
  • EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA)
  • Political Prisoners
  • Canadian Military Supplies to Turkey

Episode 316 | Recorded: March 15, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Establishment of Canadian Embassy in Armenia
  • EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA)
  • Political Prisoners
  • Canadian Military Supplies to Turkey

Episode 316 | Recorded: March 15, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgian Nationalism and Identity
  • Georgia, Armenia, post 2018
  • Accession to the EU
  • Strategic Partnership

Episode 315 | Recorded: March 12, 2024

Guest:

Topics:

  • Georgian Nationalism and Identity
  • Georgia, Armenia, post 2018
  • Accession to the EU
  • Strategic Partnership

Episode 315 | Recorded: March 12, 2024