South Caucasus

Trita Parsi warns a next Iran war would have no geographic limits, but says Iran is likelier to hit bases in Europe than Azerbaijan absent clear evidence.

Trita Parsi predicts a stronger Iran would move to revisit the TRIPP arrangement once the war ends, calling it highly problematic for Tehran.

The EAEU’s own report projects Armenia’s GDP falling 16%, exports dropping 66% and gas prices rising 69% if its membership is suspended.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Trita Parsi about the Iran War and its implications for Armenia and the South Caucasus. We discuss Trump’s shifting approach to Iran, the prospects for diplomatic settlement, Israel’s influence on U.S. war policy, and how the conflict threatens Armenia’s security amid broader regional instability.

In this week’s Groong episode, the hosts review major developments reshaping Armenia’s political landscape and regional standing. We discuss the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the 2026 US midterm elections and what it means for American foreign policy toward Azerbaijan, the Established Opposition’s unified response to Pashinyan’s crackdown, the Constitutional Court leadership controversy, the fate of political prisoners including Aslanyan’s acquittal, and Armenia’s precarious balancing act between the EU, CSTO, and Eurasian Economic Union as the Civil Contract regime tightens its grip.

Aghajanian says Armenia is handing over 42 kilometers of territory for TRIPP with unknown width, route, and control, and the ruling party ratified it anyway.

Aghajanian lays out who she expects in a future ground operation against Iran: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kurds, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and internal unrest.

Aghajanian notes nobody has seen Armenia’s proposed new constitution, yet Pashinyan is pushing for support on a text kept secret.

Aghajanian argues TRIPP was designed to supply weapons and manpower from Turkey to Azerbaijan, and that Artsakh was handed over as a bonus.

The hosts explain why Tigranashen, Armenia’s road artery to Iran, is not an equal trade for the Artsvashen enclave.

Martirosyan calls Armenia’s COP17 hosting mostly PR, benefiting hoteliers and Pashinyan’s image more than national interests.

Martirosyan points out the US has no operational small modular reactor, undercutting a key piece of Armenia’s nuclear bluff with Russia.

Martirosyan explains how Aliyev extracts concessions by threatening war, especially when Armenia’s leadership primes its own public to concede.

Armenia says raising Azerbaijani forest destruction at the COP17 biodiversity summit it hosts would violate the presidency’s principles.

An armed Azerbaijani soldier traveled 20 km into Armenia and shot a mother in her own home as she tried to defend her children in Shaki.

Asbed argues Armenia has more leverage over Russia than over the US or France, and that nuclear dependency on Moscow may be the least-bad option.

In this week’s episode of Groong Week in Review, Hovik and Asbed examine Pashinyan’s abrupt reversal on nuclear energy policy, shifting from Western small modular reactors to consideration of a Russian gigawatt-scale plant amid surging data center demands. We discuss the security implications of long-term energy dependency, the geopolitics behind Armenia’s power infrastructure choices, and ongoing concerns about Azerbaijani infiltration, opposition unity under Samvel Karapetyan, and corruption at COP17.

Steve Witkoff names his go-to advisors on Armenia: Turkey’s foreign minister and its intelligence chief, both spymasters.

In this week’s Groong Week in Review, Hovik and Asbed mark the sixth anniversary of the 44-Day War and examine Armenia’s deepening crisis over historical memory and national identity. We discuss the Armenian government’s controversial response to September 27 commemorations, escalating tension between the state and the Armenian Church, international concern over election integrity, and Armenia’s isolated position as Azerbaijan demolishes Artsakh’s Armenian cultural heritage while Turkey advances regional integration plans.

Aghajanian says Russia’s 102nd base in Gyumri still matters to Armenia, keeping Turkey at bay, and warns removing it would leave the country totally alone.

Aghajanian argues the September 2022 Jermuk fighting was orchestrated by Western actors, Azerbaijan, and Pashinyan to draw Russia into a second front.

Aghajanian says Armenian soldiers fought back at Jermuk against government commands, pushing Azerbaijan back from a strategic corridor toward Nakhijevan.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Dziunik Aghajanian about shifting geopolitical pressures on Armenia following Russia’s September 2026 parliamentary elections. We discuss Putin’s strengthened domestic position, the Armenia-Russia confrontation over the 102nd base, asset confiscation and anti-corruption efforts targeting Russian interests, and how Middle East escalation and the Iran War reshape Armenia’s strategic environment amid ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process tensions.

Khachatryan flips the question on Western journalists: if the Russian base leaves and Armenia is attacked, will NATO react?

Asbed lays out how Artsakh legally became a republic, following all Soviet and international laws, before Azerbaijan declared its own independence.

Hovik argues the Turkey-Azerbaijan bond is uniquely strong and that Armenia kept Turkey out of the conflict for 26 years until Pashinyan.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Arthur Khachatryan, MP from Armenia Alliance, about opposition strategy following the June 2026 Armenian Parliamentary Election. We discuss the Established Opposition’s plans to counter Pashinyan’s agenda, territorial concessions including Tigranashen, Azerbaijani attacks on Armenian heritage, the role of TRIPP and Azerbaijan’s control over transit corridors, the future of Russia’s 102nd military base, and escalating threats against opposition parties.

Warwick Powell on why Beijing stays relaxed about TRIPP and the Middle Corridor, and how the risk of any route becoming a chokepoint is managed by keeping alternatives.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Professor Warwick Powell about multipolarity, infrastructure, and the strategic implications of emerging power blocs. We discuss tangible outcomes from the SCO and BRICS summits, the shift toward local-currency settlement and financial alternatives to Western institutions, China’s role as an enabling power, and how countries like Armenia navigate the infrastructure competition between TRIPP and competing regional corridors. We also examine AI safety and digital sovereignty in a multipolar world, where both Washington and Beijing view artificial intelligence as a decisive strategic contest.

A Wall Street Journal report says the U.S. dangled NVIDIA AI chips to get Armenia to sign the TRIPP corridor. The hosts weigh revocable chips against a 99-year deal.

At Gandzasar, an Azerbaijani official held up a blank-paged replica of an Armenian manuscript and called it empty, as European diplomats smiled.

As Pashinyan attends a Paris space summit, Hovik notes France helped build and launch Azerbaijan’s satellites, later used against Armenia in war.

EU Special Representative Magdalena Grono called the Gandzasar dispute a matter of “deeply diverging views and narratives.” The hosts call it false equivalence.

In this Groong Week in Review episode, Hovik and Asbed examine the fourth anniversary of the September 2022 border war, Azerbaijan’s ongoing occupation of Armenian territory, and Pashinyan’s political trajectory toward recognizing Artsakh’s loss. We discuss Hajiyev’s inflammatory rhetoric, Armenia’s muted diplomatic response, TRIPP and semiconductor sovereignty, Pashinyan’s attendance at a Paris space summit, Russian financial flows through Armenia, and Russia-Iran coordination in the South Caucasus.

In this week’s Groong episode, Hovik and Asbed review September 2026 developments across Armenia and the South Caucasus. We examine Artsakh’s remembered independence declaration on September 2, 1991, and its unresolved cause following the 2023 ethnic cleansing; Putin’s signaling on Russia’s military base presence; ongoing Armenian Church prosecutions; EU trade negotiations; mounting non-combat military deaths; and political pressures ahead of local elections. We also analyze U.S. envoy Witkoff and Kushner’s diplomatic shuttle through Moscow and Kyiv.

Suren Sargsyan warns that Pashinyan’s government has developed no contingency plans if the U.S.-backed TRIPP project fails, leaving the country dangerously exposed.

Suren Sargsyan argues that Armenia’s best survival strategy is to avoid picking sides in the Russia-West rivalry, despite mounting pressure from both sides.

Suren Sargsyan explores whether Russia might cede South Caucasus dominance to Iran as a strategic partner, given Moscow’s focus on Ukraine.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Suren Sargsyan about the Iran War and great power competition for Armenia’s strategic position. We discuss Washington’s unclear endgame in the conflict with Iran, the future of Russia’s military presence in Armenia and CSTO membership, and competing U.S. and European interests in new east-west transit routes through Armenia and Central Asia amid broader geopolitical rivalries.