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Hrair Balian - From Karabakh to TRIPP: Armenia’s Security Dilemma | Ep 538, May 3, 2026

Sun, 03 May 2026 14:30:00 -0700

Summary

Hrair Balian joins us to discuss his book Anatomy of Peacemaking: Nagorno Karabakh Conflict & Missed Opportunities, the failure of diplomacy around Artsakh, and what Armenia should learn from the long collapse of the peace process. The conversation also looks at the Iran war, US and Israeli goals in the region, the TRIPP/Zangezur Corridor and its security impact on Armenia, and the role of outside powers in shaping outcomes in the South Caucasus. The episode closes with a discussion of Armenia’s June parliamentary elections, opposition repression, election monitoring, and whether international observers will judge the vote by facts on the ground or political convenience.

Main Topics Addressed

US-Iran relations and failed diplomacy
Israeli and US interests in the Iran war
Prospects for a negotiated end to the current conflict
TRIPP, also known as the Zangezur Corridor
Armenia’s sovereignty and security risks
Iran’s red lines in the South Caucasus
Hrair Balian’s book on Karabakh negotiations
Missed opportunities in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process
Secret or unreleased negotiation documents
Russia, the West, and the South Caucasus after 2014
Pashinyan’s shift on Artsakh
The future of Artsakh and the right of return
Armenia’s June parliamentary elections
OSCE/ODIHR election monitoring and political bias concerns

Key Questions Discussed

Did modern US-Iran tensions begin in 1979, 1953, or earlier?
Was there ever a serious diplomatic effort between the US and Iran?
Do US and Israeli interests align in the war on Iran?
What is the end goal of the US-Israeli war on Iran?
Is a negotiated solution still possible?
Does TRIPP provide any security guarantee for Armenia?
Can a future Armenian government renegotiate TRIPP with stronger safeguards?
How does TRIPP relate to the November 2020 ceasefire statement and Russia’s assigned role?
What lessons should Armenia draw from regional war and failed diplomacy?
Why have parts of the Karabakh negotiation record remained secret?
What were the main reasons the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks failed?
After 2014 or 2018, did the US prioritize conflict resolution or pressure on Russia?
Was Armenia’s post-2018 course toward the West a sound strategy or a dangerous misread?
Was the loss of Artsakh unavoidable?
What should be made of the 2019 proposal to Armenia?
Why did Pashinyan’s position on Artsakh shift so sharply after 2021?
Is the Artsakh chapter closed, and what would it mean if it is not?
Can Armenia’s June elections be judged free and fair under current conditions?
Will international monitors assess the election based on facts or politics?
How should Armenia’s opposition work with election monitoring organizations?

Referenced Articles & Sources

(Anatomy of Peacemaking: Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict & Missed Opportunities (Rethinking Peace and Conflict Studies)

Hrair Balian - From Karabakh to TRIPP: Armenia’s Security Dilemma | Ep 538, May 3, 2026

Sun, 03 May 2026 14:30:00 -0700

Episode Summary

Transcript: Hrair Balian - From Karabakh to TRIPP: Armenia’s Security Dilemma | Ep 538, May 3, 2026

Sun, 03 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

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Hrant Mikaelian - Abkhazia Polls, Armenian Hostages in Baku, Yerevan Protests | Ep 421, Mar 2, 2025

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 08:00:00 +0400

In this episode, we discuss the latest developments in Abkhazia’s presidential elections, the ongoing plight of Armenian hostages in Baku, and the protests in Yerevan calling for stronger government action. We also cover the stalled Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations and deepening divisions within Armenia’s opposition.

Topics Covered

Abkhaz Elections & Regional Implications – The impact of mass protests, Badra Gunba’s victory, and its geopolitical consequences.
Armenian Hostages in Baku – Reports of torture, Ruben Vardanyan’s hunger strike, and shifting Armenian government rhetoric.
Protests in Yerevan Over POWs – Civil society-led demonstrations demanding stronger action and international intervention.
Azerbaijan Rejects Armenia’s Proposals – The stalled peace negotiations and whether Ukraine-Russia diplomacy plays a role.
Opposition Infighting – Escalating tensions among Armenian opposition factions following Robert Kocharyan’s latest remarks.

Key Questions Discussed

What were the key issues at stake in the Abkhaz elections, and what do the results mean for Russia’s influence?
How significant are the protests in Yerevan? Do they reflect a shift in public sentiment or political calculations?
Why is the Armenian government changing its approach on Armenian hostages in Azerbaijan?
What is the right strategy for securing the release of Armenian POWs?
Why did Azerbaijan reject Armenia’s latest railway corridor proposal? Is the broader geopolitical context playing a role?
What is fueling the growing divisions in the Armenian opposition, and what does it mean for 2026 elections?

Links Referenced During The Show

Abkhaz Elections

VOA: Abkhazia’s Acting Leader Wins Presidential Election

Armenian Hostages & Yerevan Protests

Azerbaijan Rejects Armenia’s Proposal

Opposition Infighting

Sumgait Pogroms Anniversary

Wrap-up

That’s our show! We hope you found it useful. Please find us on Social Media and follow us everywhere you get your Armenian news.

Hrant Mikaelian - Abkhazia Polls, Armenian Hostages in Baku, Yerevan Protests | Ep 421, Mar 2, 2025

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 08:00:00 +0400

Episode Summary

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