Iran Could Hit Europe Before It Hits Azerbaijan
In the next war, Iran says there will be no geographic limits.
Responding to Hovik’s questions about the northern front of the Iran war and the risks for Armenia, Trita Parsi offers a surprising geographic forecast. He opens with a candid caveat that his expertise on the Caucasus, Azerbaijan, and Armenia is limited, then makes two pointed observations that reframe how a wider war might spread.
First, Parsi says to take Tehran seriously when it warns that a next war, if it comes, will have no geographic limits. He notes that Iran successfully fought the United States by escalating horizontally, striking the GCC countries right away and quickly putting itself in a position to determine the geography of the war, something the US side did not expect. That record, he argues, means Iran’s threats about geographic expansion should not be dismissed.
The counterintuitive payoff follows. Despite Armenian fears about escalation in the South Caucasus, Parsi assesses that Iran kept that part of the border passive by strategy last time, and that in a next round there is a higher likelihood Iran would strike bases in Europe and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean than target Azerbaijan, unless very clear evidence emerges that Baku is actively participating in the war. For Armenian audiences worried about the Iran War reaching the region, this is a reassuring but conditional read: the danger to the South Caucasus is real but not the most probable vector, and it hinges on whether Azerbaijani territory becomes a documented launchpad. The hosts had framed the question against CNN’s reporting on alleged Israeli operations from Azerbaijani soil, giving Parsi’s assessment direct bearing on how Armenia should weigh the risks on its own doorstep.
Transcript
Trita Parsi: First of all, I would take very seriously when the Iranians say that in the next war, if there is a next war, there will be no geographic limits. They successfully fought the U.S. side by escalating horizontally last time. The U.S. side did not expect that the Iranians would strike all of the GCC countries right away. The Iranians quickly managed to put themselves in a position in which they were determining the geography of the war. That does not mean that in the next round they necessarily will escalate vis-a-vis Azerbaijan. I think there was also a strategy on the Iranian side to keep that part of the border passive rather than necessarily allowing the war to go there. If I were to guess, I would say that there's a higher likelihood, and this may sound strange, but there's a higher likelihood that the Iranians would shoot at bases in Europe and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean than necessarily target Azerbaijan, unless there's some very, very clear evidence that emerges that they are actively participating in the war. The second point, though is that in regards to TRIPP I would suspect I mean that