What Armenia Loses If It Exits the EAEU

Here the hosts put hard numbers on the economic stakes of Armenia drifting out of the Eurasian Economic Union. Citing a report produced by the Eurasian Economic Union itself, Hovik lays out the projections: Armenia’s GDP falling by about 16 percent, its export markets dropping by nearly 66 percent, and household gas prices rising by roughly 69 percent, with costs for business likely higher still. He adds the hit to remittances from the hundreds of thousands of Armenian workers who travel to Russia each year to earn and send money home.

Hovik notes that Pashinyan publicly dismissed those warning of apocalyptic scenarios, even though the warning came from his own central bank chief, and the hosts recall how a deputy who initially called the fallout catastrophic appeared to soften his assessment under pressure. The exchange captures a government talking down risks that its own institutions and the bloc itself have flagged.

We connect the wider thread of Armenia’s relations with Russia, the CSTO and the EAEU, to Pashinyan’s stated ambition to apply for EU membership in 2027 or 2028. Because membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and the EU are treated as incompatible by both Moscow and Brussels, the choice carries real economic weight: cheap gas and open export markets on one side, an uncertain and slow EU path on the other. For viewers following the Armenian economy and the South Caucasus, it is a clear, numbers-driven look at what is actually at stake.