The Five Ways Pashinyan Could Lose Power

Drawing on a short video by veteran journalist Aram Abrahamyan of Aravot, Hovik walks through five scenarios for how power could change in what he describes as an authoritarian Armenia under Pashinyan. Number one is natural death, Pashinyan holding power until his last breath. Number two is massive riots and revolutions, which Hovik argues have not materialized despite many people taking to the streets, because in his view any such movement requires external sponsors. Number three is a palace revolution, which he dismisses with a vivid jab at defense minister Suren Papikyan, the idea of a military coup drawing laughter from both hosts.

The moment works as a clip because it is tightly structured and quotable, a numbered list delivered with sharp, sometimes darkly funny commentary. Hovik is careful to say he is not wishing death on anyone, though he does wish, in his words, bitter punishment to the maximum extent of the law. The framing of Armenia as an authoritarian system where elections cannot engineer a change of power anchors the episode’s central thesis.

This ties into the wider conversation about whether snap elections could realistically unseat Pashinyan, the jailing of opposition figures like Robert Kocharyan and the house arrest of Samvel Karapetyan, and the role of external powers. The hosts argue that only the West has regime change in its toolbox and that Russia under Putin has been hesitant to engineer such shifts. For viewers following the 2026 Armenian parliamentary election and the balance of power in the South Caucasus, this five-point breakdown is an accessible map of the limited paths through which Armenia’s leadership might actually change, and why the hosts see most of them as closed.