Russia-NATO Proxy War or the Early Days of World War III?

The Ukraine war has now stretched beyond four and a half years, far exceeding what was supposed to be a three-week special military operation. As Russia intensifies strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure heading into winter, Hovik and Asbed step back to ask what kind of war this actually is.

Asbed opens by clarifying that his earlier question to Hovik was rhetorical. He knew Hovik understood in 2022, and before, that this was flat out going to be a Russia versus NATO proxy war, if not a direct war. His real follow-up is aimed at Moscow: if it was that obvious, how come the Kremlin did not know? Asbed is sure they did know what was coming, but things have not turned out the way they expected, and he is not sure how it continues from here. One thing he is confident about is that as long as China backs Russia, nobody should expect Russia to go bankrupt or go away. It is powerful enough to keep going.

Hovik then asks directly whether we are in a world war. Asbed answers that many of the analysts both hosts follow have already said we are in the early days of World War III. He hopes they are wrong, and says so twice, but he sees an escalation pattern in which each action triggers a counteraction, and he finds it scary. He closes with the hope that wiser leaders will prevail. For smaller states like Armenia, caught in the fallout of Russian overstretch and Western expansion, the direction of this war shapes everything that follows in the South Caucasus.