Armenia Must Avoid Zero-Sum Geopolitics and Preserve Regional Relations

In his closing remarks on Armenia’s geopolitical future, Ambassador Matlock offers counsel grounded in his decades of experience navigating Cold War tensions and post-Cold War regional conflicts. He emphasizes that Armenia, like Georgia and Azerbaijan, must resist the pressure to align definitively with either the West or Russia in what many characterize as a broader civilizational or ideological struggle. Matlock views this framing as dangerous and counterproductive, especially for smaller states caught between larger powers.

Matlock’s core recommendation is that Armenia prioritize peaceful relations with all its neighbors, even if those relations cannot always be intimate or friendly. He acknowledges the historical grievances and cultural divisions that make cooperation difficult, but he argues that modern challenges-environmental degradation, climate change, mass migration-require cooperation that transcends old conflicts. The alternative, Matlock warns, is to be drawn into a zero-sum geopolitical competition that can only be destructive to smaller nations.

Matlock specifically cautions against the aspiration for NATO membership, which he views as neither necessary nor wise for Armenia, and he opposes the idea that Armenia should reduce or boycott relations with Russia as part of alignment with the West. He notes that Armenia’s strength lies not in choosing a superpower patron but in maintaining diplomatic flexibility and preserving its unique civilizational values while avoiding broader ideological struggles.

This advice directly mirrors the warnings Matlock issued about NATO expansion and the dangers of viewing geopolitics as a zero-sum civilizational contest. For Armenia, the implication is clear: the path to security and prosperity lies not in replicating Ukraine’s experience of military alliance and confrontation with Russia, but in a balanced, pragmatic approach that respects Armenia’s relationships with Iran, maintains productive ties with Russia, and pursues economic and cultural integration with the West without embracing military encirclement. Matlock’s testimony suggests that Armenia’s future depends on learning from Cold War history and avoiding the trap of being instrumentalized in great-power competition.