Armenia's Nuclear Power Plant: Turkey & Azerbaijan's Prize, Security Guarantee Lost
Neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan would think about attacking Armenia if we have the nuclear power plant, because the radiation will kill people not only in Armenia but also in Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The Armenian Nuclear Power Plant at Metsamor serves dual purposes: energy generation and deterrence. Ambassador Aghajanian highlights a dimension often absent from Armenia’s public debate about energy independence. A nuclear facility creates a red line that Turkey and Azerbaijan cannot cross without risking catastrophic radiation exposure affecting their own populations. This mutual vulnerability creates stability, even in a hostile environment.
Currently, Pashinyan’s government pursues ’energy independence’ rhetoric while simultaneously alienating Russia (which supplies natural gas and has offered to build a new nuclear plant), rejecting Russian nuclear replacement proposals, and dilly-dallying with U.S. ‘small modular reactors’ that do not yet exist at commercial scale. The strategy appears designed to create a gap: the existing plant will eventually close (likely within a decade), no replacement will be ready, and Armenia will become dependent on electricity from Azerbaijan, Turkey, or Central Asian countries routed through Turkish or Azerbaijani territory.
Aghajanian argues this dependency is the actual goal. By making Armenia reliant on enemies for energy, Turkey and Azerbaijan gain permanent political leverage. They can cut electricity to punish Armenia economically without firing a shot. More dangerously, without its own nuclear plant, Armenia loses the strategic deterrent that currently prevents either neighbor from initiating large-scale military operations. Turkey and Azerbaijan have made closing the Metsamor plant a stated objective-a goal aligned with Western and U.S. energy policy that prefers Armenia dependent on regional corridors (TRIPP) rather than independent infrastructure.
The irony is acute: Armenia sold electricity to Turkey for decades. Now the debate is whether Armenia will become a buyer dependent on Turkish or Azerbaijani sources. This represents a 180-degree reversal of energy sovereignty and removes a key security guarantee that has protected the country from military aggression.
Transcript
Hovik Manucharyan: when the dictator of Baku was talking about sending electricity through Armenia, he was so magnanimous that he said that some of that electricity could be also provided to Armenia instead of passing through Armenia. Of course, the fine print was that, you know, that would come after Armenia closes down the Armenian nuclear power plant. Pashinyan immediately denied, you know, after confirming that, hey, actually, Azerbaijani experts were in Armenia. Old news, he denied that Armenia is planning on discontinuing the reliance on the nuclear power plant and he said that Armenia is planning on achieving 100% energy independence. So I wanted to ask you how exactly is Armenia achieving 100% energy independence by alienating Russia geopolitically? Who provides gas and nuclear energy and refusing Russian offers to rebuild or construct a completely new nuclear power plant and dilly-dallying with this vaporware idea of small modular reactors from the US. How is Armenia exactly achieving energy independence?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, as I said, the main way that this government is acting is lying to people about their intentions and their plans and presenting it in very nice terms.