Nakhichevan Militarization: Target is Iran, Not Just Armenia
Why is Aliyev massively militarizing Nakhichevan if he's already subdued Armenia? The real target is Iran.
Aliyev’s dramatic increase in military infrastructure, personnel, and equipment in Nakhichevan raises an important strategic question: if Armenia is already subjugated and the TRIPP corridor is being built with Armenian acquiescence, why the continued militarization of Azerbaijan’s exclave? The answer points to Iran.
Nakhichevan, historically Armenian, is now one of the most militarized territories in the South Caucasus. It hosts Turkish forces, massive accumulations of military hardware, and serves as a staging ground for ongoing buildup. The proximity to Iran’s border and the recent pattern of Iranian military readiness suggest that Azerbaijan and Turkey are preparing for potential conflict with Iran, not Armenia. Armenia rolled over, as one analyst noted, like a poodle. There is nothing there to resist.
Iran’s response has been proportional: military forces are massed along the border in a state of readiness that mirrors the Azerbaijani-Turkish preparations. Both sides understand what is being constructed: not a infrastructure corridor, but a potential staging ground for military action against Iran’s territorial integrity or regional interests. The TRIPP project, from Iran’s perspective, is an American encroachment into its strategic backyard, and Nakhichevan’s militarization is the sword that could make that encroachment kinetic.
Historically, Nakhichevan was majority Armenian at the turn of the 20th century. Over decades, Azerbaijan degraded the Armenian population. In 2006, Azerbaijan destroyed thousands of Armenian khachkars in Julfa’s cemeteries. The region’s Armenian heritage has been systematically erased. Now, as Armenia’s government pursues the TRIPP project that Iran opposes, Armenian territory becomes the highway for a geopolitical project that could draw the entire region into a larger conflict. Armenia’s leaders have not explained this risk to the Armenian population or articulated a strategy to minimize it.
Transcript
Hovik Manucharyan: Now, another interesting point we just glossed over is the It's Nakhichevan, essentially. You know, the significance of Nakhichevan, the significance of his visit, the fact that Nakhichevan is one of the most militarized points in the South Caucasus right now. And who do you think is the target of that? I mean, I think Aliyev thinks he's probably done with Armenia, right, for 50 years or 30 years or whatever. So why is he increasing the militarization of the region, bringing more troops, bringing more equipment Is Armenia the target or is some other country involved or potentially targeted here?
Asbed Bedrossian: The answer is yes and yes, I think. I mean, there was a little-heard story about how the Russians from the 102nd military base were the ones who actually stopped Azerbaijan from taking over Jermuk. And nobody really hears that story. And what they were going to do is they were basically going to attack through Yeraskh and they were going to attack through Jermuk and basically squeeze and cut off the south of Armenia from the north of Armenia. That hasn't happened yet. And I don't think that they've given up on that project. So I really believe that the militarization of Nakhichevan is a state of readiness