Russia's Ultimatum: Armenia Must Choose EAEU or Lose Everything
Russia just gave Armenia an ultimatum: hold a referendum by December or face economic collapse.
Russia has escalated pressure on Armenia by delivering an ultimatum at the Eurasian Economic Union meeting in Cholpon-Ata: Armenia must hold a referendum on leaving the EAEU by December 2026, or face legal suspension or termination of agreements. This is not a request. The CSTO is also moving independently, planning to restrict Armenia’s voting rights and quota appointments on November 11, 2026, due to Yerevan’s refusal to pay membership fees since May 2024.
The economic consequences of breaking with the EAEU would be catastrophic. Armenia currently pays just 165 to 177 dollars per thousand cubic meters for Russian gas, while Europe pays approximately six hundred dollars. That preferential rate vanishes if Armenia is sanctioned. Beyond energy, there are grain embargoes to consider, trade tariffs that are now zero but could be reinstated, and most critically, remittances from migrant laborers working in Russia. Nearly four billion dollars annually flows from Armenian workers in Russia back to their families. Russia could stop that overnight through banking restrictions, effectively crippling Armenia’s economy before any Western bailout could materialize.
The bind is real: Pashinyan’s government wants to pivot toward Europe and the European Union, but the cost of severing ties with Russia would be economically ruinous unless Armenia had secured massive alternative funding and energy infrastructure. Europe is not offering that. Instead, Europe’s preference is to cut Russia out entirely and route Central Asian and Azerbaijani energy through Armenia to Turkey, making Armenia dependent on Azerbaijan for power while feeding Turkish and European interests. This is not Armenia’s national interest. A wise leader would maintain relations with both Russia and the West, but Pashinyan is being pushed to choose, and the consequences of that choice will fall on ordinary Armenians in the form of higher energy bills, reduced remittances, and economic instability.
Transcript
Asbed Bedrossian: if you don't mind.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: If you recall, Pashinyan was at the Eurasian Economic Union meeting at Cholpon-Ata, and following his refusal to hold a referendum for Armenians to choose to leave the Eurasian Economic Union and instead join the EU, now Russia has basically given Armenia an ultimatum to hold a referendum by December 2026. Or the Eurasian Economic Union leaders are going to take joint action including legal suspension or termination of agreements with Armenia. Additionally, I read that the CSTO is going to consider measures on November 11, 2026 to restrict Armenia's voting rights and quota appointments due to Yerevan's refusal to pay its membership fees ever since May 2024. So do you think that Armenia cares if it is frozen out of the CSTO? I mean, should it care? It's basically the relationship is at zero right now. What do you make of these, I'll call them, threats?
Hovik Manucharyan: Armenia, under a wise leadership, should care about its membership in the CSTO, as despite not being another NATO, let me just put it this way. The CSTO essentially is a club for purchasing Russian weapons at cost. And if only for that, I think Armenia should care.