AI Data Centers Will Need Solar, Gas, and Maybe Nuclear-But Not in 2027
Building out 300 megawatts of solar is completely feasible. And to also have 300 megawatts of CCGT, well, that's one turbine.
Campbell provides a detailed technical and economic analysis of how data center operators globally solve the power problem when building frontier-scale facilities. He emphasizes that solar and combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) form the most cost-effective and operationally flexible pairing for a modern data center, particularly when the operator takes responsibility for generation (a “behind-the-meter” approach).
The numbers are instructive: solar power can be deployed incrementally at extraordinarily low cost (Campbell cites $20-30 per megawatt of levelized cost of energy), meaning a data center can begin generating power immediately with the first solar panels and scale over time. Natural gas turbines, by contrast, require full upfront construction before any electricity flows, but a single CCGT unit can supply 300+ megawatts of baseload power. Campbell’s insight that running such a turbine at high utilization (80+ percent) is far cheaper than intermittent “peaker” operation reframes the economics: data centers actually benefit from continuous load to justify the generator investment.
Campbell also addresses the nuclear question, which looms large in Armenia’s energy debate given Metsamor’s aging condition and geopolitical constraints around reactor upgrades. He notes that proven reactor designs (Westinghouse AP1000, European Pressurized Reactor) take 10-15 years to build and operate, placing them off-table for near-term demand. Small modular reactors, while promising, have not yet been deployed commercially, making Armenia an unwilling guinea pig if it chooses that path. For Armenia’s stated 300 MW expansion by 2027, nuclear is simply not on the timeline.
This analysis matters because it grounds Armenia’s infrastructure planning in physical and economic reality. Solar and natural gas offer rapid deployment, cost control, and operational flexibility. Armenia’s existing gas pipelines from Russia and Iran, combined with abundant sunlight in the region, position it well for this strategy.
Transcript
Richard Campbell: It'll take so long. By the time you have our new reactor up and running and people using it, it's 10 to 15 years.
Hovik Manucharyan: Meanwhile, as I said, we have like potentially 300 megawatt consumption in 2027. Next couple of years. How do they plan? And I think that's one of the answers that we haven't gotten. And we've actually tried to reach out to the Firebird people, but we hope if you're listening, please accept our request to come on our show and talk to us on how you're going to do power for it.
Richard Campbell: When I'm talking to other data center builders, what do they talk about building for power? They talk about solar, wind, and natural gas. And again, it's all environmental. What can the region support and what's cost-effective? And wind and solar are very inexpensive, right? $20 to $30 per megawatt LCOE is incredibly inexpensive and operable in stages. You know, you have to build a whole gas power plant before you make any electricity where you can put up 10 wind turbines and have them running immediately or the first hectare of solar panels and have them running immediately and then add to them over time. The combination of solar and natural gas is very compelling. Daytime power, non-emitting and inexpensive, cheaper than gas by a lot. And then when the solar can't keep up, the power plant gets lit and run. A natural gas power plant running full load all of the time, 80 plus percent utilization,