How Long Can Armenia Sit on Two Chairs? EAEU vs. EU Balancing Act Collapsing
Pashinyan says it's mutually exclusive, but we're not leaving at this moment in time. Russia and the other EAEU members are saying they're not ready to do preferential business with Armenia while it prepares its exit.
Armenia’s attempt to maintain simultaneous membership in both the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union has reached a critical juncture. At the May EAEU summit, the heads of state explicitly demanded that Armenia either hold a referendum on leaving the EAEU or cease its EU integration efforts, framing the two paths as mutually exclusive. Putin reiterated this demand during a phone call with Pashinyan, who responded that Armenia would continue deriving EAEU benefits while charting a course toward the EU-a position increasingly untenable to Moscow and its allies.
Asbed identifies the most critical economic pressure point: remittances from Russia to Armenia, which total 2-4 billion dollars annually and have been the primary stabilizer of the Armenian dram through war, pandemic, and economic crisis. If Russia were to restrict or halt these flows, Armenia’s economy would enter freefall, especially given Pashinyan’s record of 8 billion dollars in government borrowing over the past eight years. Beyond remittances, Armenia depends on Russian gas at discounted prices (worth roughly 1 billion annually) and Russian energy to power its nuclear reactor and emerging AI data center infrastructure.
Hovik adds another dimension: the nuclear power plant decision. The current reactor’s operational life extends to 2031 unless Armenia contracts Russian Rosatom for an extension to 2036. If Armenia instead sources a replacement from France, America, or another non-Russian entity, Asbed argues Russia will view the choice as a definitive pivot and may withdraw all economic support. This decision will occur within the next few years, creating a hard deadline. Pashinyan’s other EU-aligned moves-joining the Rome Statute (which obligates arrest of Putin if he enters Armenia) and pursuing constitutional changes tied to TRIPP-compound the strategic incoherence. The hosts conclude that Pashinyan’s policies amount to self-sabotage: attempting to maintain Russian economic dependence while systematically antagonizing Russia diplomatically and institutionally. This unsustainable position cannot hold much longer.
Transcript
Hovik Manucharyan: we are. Let's move from Pashinyan's dilly-dallying with the Armenian court system to Pashinyan dilly-dallying in Kyrgyzstan. Last week, there was a Eurasian Economic Union meeting, a prime ministerial meeting in Cholpon-Ata in Kyrgyzstan. And what's notable about this meeting is that it is a mundane working meeting, not attended by any other state. Normally, Armenia would send Mher Grigoryan, but Pashinyan, as Armenia's head of state, decided to attend. Of course, all the other states were represented by number twos in the government. And we know that Pashinyan has been trying to get any opportunity to meet with Putin, and the best he got was a phone call. So I think this was an opportunity also to secure some meetings with Mishustin, maybe. But so far, I think no luck. And the background to this is that on May 29th, it was the official summit of the Eurasian Economic Union, which Pashinyan boycotted essentially. The heads of the EAEU made a statement demanding that Armenia promptly hold a referendum on leaving the Eurasian Economic Union and joining the European Union because those two are quite naturally mutually exclusive. This call was also repeated, I would say,