Russia Wants Armenia Out of the Eurasian Economic Union, Mikaelian Says

Political scientist Hrant Mikaelian lays out a strategic interpretation of Russia’s insistence that Armenia hold a referendum on joining the European Union or remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union. According to his analysis, Russia does not genuinely want such a referendum held because polls suggest a majority of Armenians would vote in favor of EU membership. Instead, Mikaelian contends, Russia seeks to engineer Armenia’s formal exit from the EAEU through what would appear to be Armenia’s own democratic choice. The reason, Mikaelian argues, is that the Eurasian Economic Union has no legal mechanism for removing a member state, which means that if Russia were to simply expel Armenia, it would lack international legitimacy. A referendum result in favor of EU membership, however, would provide Russia with the veneer of legality and democratic consensus needed to justify Armenia’s removal. This interpretation reframes the current standoff not as a genuine negotiation over Armenia’s geopolitical alignment, but as a tactical maneuver by Russia to formalize what it views as Armenia’s strategic defection. The stakes extend beyond economics: Armenia’s membership in the EAEU has provided certain security guarantees (however contested their current value) and access to Russian markets. Severing these ties would represent a major geopolitical realignment with profound implications for Armenia’s regional standing and economic stability. Mikaelian’s analysis speaks to broader questions about how great powers manipulate democratic processes and referendums to serve their strategic interests, particularly when direct coercion or formal mechanisms are unavailable.