TRIPP Is Starved of Real Money-$400M Won't Cut It
You're going to get much of anything done for 400 million? Look at the Lobito Corridor. It's getting 700 to 800 million.
One of the most damaging critiques of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) comes not from Russia or Iran, but from a US lawyer and international finance expert who has advised Armenia itself. Christine Arakelian’s assessment is blunt: the funding committed to TRIPP is inadequate by an order of magnitude, suggesting the project may be more optics than genuine strategic commitment.
The numbers tell the story. The State Department has allocated roughly $200-400 million for South Caucasus development, with no guaranteed minimum specifically for Armenia or TRIPP. Compare this to the Lobito Corridor in West Africa, a transport project with similar conceptual architecture but serving a geographically rougher region. Lobito is receiving $700-800 million in funding from Western governments, including the US. The gap is not marginal; it is 2:1 or more.
Arakelian’s point extends beyond raw comparison. A state-of-the-art logistics corridor capable of functioning as a “land-based Suez Canal”-as some analysts have framed TRIPP’s potential-requires substantial capital. Private investment will not materialize if the corridor appears underfunded or if Armenia’s political environment remains hostile to business (a reference to Pashinyan’s seizure of private companies). The cascade of disincentives creates a self-fulfilling prophecy: under-fund the project, fail to attract private capital, declare the project unsuccessful, blame external factors.
For Armenian policymakers and civil society, this raises a crucial strategic question: is the US genuinely committed to TRIPP as a transformative infrastructure project, or is it a modest diplomatic gesture intended to appear supportive while keeping actual resource commitment low? The funding gap suggests the latter. Without congressional authorization and sustained bipartisan support, TRIPP remains dependent on executive-branch goodwill-a vulnerability Arakelian emphasizes throughout her analysis.
The broader implication is that Armenia’s Western pivot, if it truly depends on TRIPP, rests on a financially fragile foundation.
Transcript
Christine Arakelian: That's a drop in the bucket. Anybody who thinks you're going to have state-of-the-art logistics for $400 million even, why don't you take a look at the Lobito Corridor in West Africa? That corridor, similar concept, so to speak. Similar concept. Lobito funded by the Western governments, including the United States. That thing's getting $700-800 million. That's twice as much in a rougher part of the world than Armenia that's ostensibly in Europe. So you explain to me how you're going to get much of anything done for 400 million, plus the fact that if you're going to attract private investment, seizing private companies maybe is not the thing that you want to do. Because if I'm an investor sitting in the West saying, do I want to invest, and I see people's companies being seized, I don't really feel like cutting a check. And I don't think any of this should be like rocket science to people.