Turkey as Both Partner and Rival: Russia's No-Illusions Approach
We perceive Turkey as a regional adversary and competitor, but the whole paradigm is still partnership. That's the paradox of Russia-Turkish relations.
One of the most distinctive and often misunderstood features of contemporary great-power politics is the Russia-Turkey relationship, which Dr. Suslov characterizes as simultaneously adversarial and cooperative. From the Russian perspective, Turkey is a regional competitor in the South Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean, Central Asia, and potentially Africa-contested spheres where Russian and Turkish interests directly clash. Yet despite this structural antagonism, Moscow and Ankara maintain what Suslov calls a “partnership,” a relationship that seems to defy conventional alliance logic.
This paradox is not unique to Russia-Turkey relations-the United States and China exhibit similar patterns of competing while cooperating in selective domains. However, the Russia-Turkey case is particularly acute because it involves geographic proximity, overlapping spheres of influence, and repeated military clashes (2008 Georgia, 2015 Syria, 2020 South Caucasus). The framework Suslov employs suggests that Russia does not harbor illusions about Turkish intentions. Ankara is actively supporting Ukraine with drone technology and other military assistance. Turkey is strengthening ties to NATO, positioning itself as a key eastern anchor of the alliance. Turkey’s strategic trajectory is westward and away from Russia’s sphere.
Yet Russia and Turkey need each other. Turkey requires energy supplies from Russia and Chinese investment. Russia requires Turkish mediation, Turkish geopolitical leverage in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey’s role as a buffer between Russia and NATO. Moreover, Turkey’s independence from unilateral American control offers Moscow opportunities for tactical cooperation. The paradox persists because both states rationally prefer managed competition and selective partnership to open conflict. Suslov’s point is that from Moscow’s perspective, the Turkey relationship is transactional and carefully bounded. Russia does not expect Turkish loyalty and is unsurprised by Turkish support for Ukraine. What Russia calculates is how to maintain sufficient cooperation to serve mutual interests while constraining Turkish regional expansion, particularly in the South Caucasus and vis-à-vis Armenia.
Transcript
Dmitry: as well Russian-Turkish relations are partnership Dmitry: But we perceive Turkey as a regional adversary, Dmitry: as a regional competitor in the South Caucasus, Dmitry: in the Eastern Mediterranean, and in Central Asia Probably Africa too Dmitry: absolutely absolutely that's a paradox of Russia-Turkish relations so Dmitry: that you spot any place we are clashing with Turkey but Dmitry: the whole paradigm is partnership still right and we need each other by the way Dmitry: I think President Erdogan did not conceal that Turkey helps Ukraine. Dmitry: Turkey provides certain assistance to Ukraine. Dmitry: Turkey wants Ukraine also not to be defeated, at least. Dmitry: in this Dmitry: conflict Turkey did play a role in providing Ukraine with drones Dmitry: with some other weapons before and probably continues to do that also Dmitry: Turkey, of course, Dmitry: wants a lot from the United States, Dmitry: like F-35s, for instance, from the United States. Dmitry: Turkey remains a country of NATO, Dmitry: a member of NATO, so we have no illusions, of course, about the Turkish role.