The Opposition Hopes the Court Will Act Fairly. Hovik Thinks That's Unfounded Optimism.

The opposition coalition challenging the 2026 election results has publicly stated it is giving the Constitutional Court an opportunity to demonstrate its independence. Their logic is straightforward: the election falsifications are so widespread and illegal that even Pashinyan appointees, as lawyers with reputations to protect, will struggle to find legal justification for upholding the results. Some analysts argue that judges, once separated from party politics and ensconced on the bench, develop an interest in legal consistency and professional legitimacy that transcends partisan loyalty. Hovik is deeply skeptical of this reasoning. He acknowledges the opposition’s argument but labels it unfounded optimism. The structural reality remains: every judge on the Constitutional Court was appointed by Pashinyan, and no independent voice exists to challenge a ruling favoring the ruling party. The court’s historical function under previous administrations, when it contained judges from earlier eras, was to provide some measure of institutional constraint. Now, that constraint is gone entirely. However, Hovik raises one scenario that complicates the picture: Pashinyan himself may want the court to annul the election. If the ruling party intends to hold new elections with opposition parties banned, an annulment by the Constitutional Court provides legal cover for new balloting. In this scenario, the court serves Pashinyan’s interests by invalidating the current results, then standing aside while the government designs new election laws excluding major opposition forces. The atmosphere in Armenia remains one of uneasy calm. The opposition has not been told to hit the streets. Conversations about strategy continue behind closed doors. But Hovik senses the tension is building toward conflict depending on how the June 26 hearing unfolds. Both Samvel Karapetyan and Kocharyan, major opposition figures, are unlikely to accept a minority parliament position under Pashinyan for another five years.