Israel's Veto Power Over US-Iran Talks
Israel is the most important veto player in this process, and Israel has been vehemently opposed to any agreement.
In this moment, Dr. Arman Grigoryan identifies the central obstacle to a lasting US-Iran agreement: Israel’s ability and willingness to derail talks. While the Trump administration is negotiating seriously in Geneva, Israel remains adamantly opposed to any resolution short of regime change or full-scale war with Iran. This is not merely rhetorical opposition, Grigoryan argues, but backed by concrete means to sabotage the process.
Grigoryan emphasizes that Israel has every incentive to torpedo negotiations. An agreement would inevitably weaken Israel’s regional position and create a political catastrophe for the Netanyahu government. More troubling, Israel isn’t even at the negotiating table but has near-veto power because Lebanon is part of the agreement framework. By violating ceasefire terms or refusing to participate, Israel can unilaterally collapse the talks.
The deeper problem is that Trump cannot openly admit his weakness over Israel without damaging his credibility. Instead, Grigoryan predicts Trump will blame Iran for refusing US terms, allowing the administration to appear strong while masking the fact that Israel’s intransigence makes compromise impossible. This dynamic is driving broader shifts in US domestic politics and public attitudes toward Israel, with even senior officials like J.D. Vance signaling a willingness to challenge Israeli policy.