Israel's Veto Power Over US-Iran Talks
Israel is the most important veto player in this process, and Israel has been vehemently opposed to any agreement.
In this moment, Dr. Arman Grigoryan identifies the central obstacle to a lasting US-Iran agreement: Israel’s ability and willingness to derail talks. While the Trump administration is negotiating seriously in Geneva, Israel remains adamantly opposed to any resolution short of regime change or full-scale war with Iran. This is not merely rhetorical opposition, Grigoryan argues, but backed by concrete means to sabotage the process.
Grigoryan emphasizes that Israel has every incentive to torpedo negotiations. An agreement would inevitably weaken Israel’s regional position and create a political catastrophe for the Netanyahu government. More troubling, Israel isn’t even at the negotiating table but has near-veto power because Lebanon is part of the agreement framework. By violating ceasefire terms or refusing to participate, Israel can unilaterally collapse the talks.
The deeper problem is that Trump cannot openly admit his weakness over Israel without damaging his credibility. Instead, Grigoryan predicts Trump will blame Iran for refusing US terms, allowing the administration to appear strong while masking the fact that Israel’s intransigence makes compromise impossible. This dynamic is driving broader shifts in US domestic politics and public attitudes toward Israel, with even senior officials like J.D. Vance signaling a willingness to challenge Israeli policy.
Transcript
Arman: as you pointed out, Arman: there is an important veto player there, Arman: which is Israel. Arman: I think to some extent perhaps Hezbollah is also such an actor, Arman: but I think Israel is the more important veto player in this process. Arman: And Israel has been vehemently opposed to any agreement. Arman: I think short of regime change, Arman: short of full-scale war with Iran, Arman: Israelis don't think anything is acceptable. Arman: Although it is not quite clear what Israelis have in mind in terms of escalation, Arman: what they think will happen if such escalation takes place, Arman: their theory of victory is not entirely clear, Arman: but it is clear also that if Arman: An agreement is reached, Arman: it will weaken Israel, Arman: it will make Israel more vulnerable, Arman: and it will certainly be a political catastrophe for Netanyahu and his government, Arman: which is why they have all the incentives to sabotage it, Arman: and also they have the means to sabotage it, Arman: as it has been demonstrated several times.