Why Pashinyan is terrified even after winning the election
Pashinyan is doubling down on divisive tone and setting the agenda of capturing the state. He did not get very good results from this election, even though it was fabricated. He is discontent with its results.
In the aftermath of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections, one might expect a victorious leader to consolidate power and seek reconciliation. Instead, Pashinyan has intensified his threats against the opposition, arrested more activists, and pushed an anti-corruption committee to draft laws banning political parties. Political scientist Hrant Mikaelian offers a counterintuitive explanation: Pashinyan’s escalation reveals not strength but profound weakness.
Despite the government’s use of extensive administrative pressure, foreign interference, and even the jailing of opposition figures during the campaign, Civil Contract failed to achieve a two-thirds majority. The party secured roughly 49.8% of the reported vote, falling short of the constitutional supermajority needed to unilaterally pursue its agenda, particularly a constitutional referendum that Azerbaijan has demanded as a condition for further peace talks.
This shortfall explains Pashinyan’s desperation. He cannot achieve his geopolitical objectives without either dismantling the opposition entirely or finding a coalition partner. The threat to ban opposition parties, especially Strong Armenia under Samvel Karapetyan, reflects a strategy to reshape the political landscape so thoroughly that even a new election would yield better results for the ruling party. In Mikaelian’s assessment, Pashinyan’s post-election hysteria stems from a fundamental political problem: Armenia lacks the resource base (oil wealth, for instance) needed to sustain a fully consolidated autocracy. Citizens still have leverage through taxation and civic participation, limiting how far even a determined authoritarian can push without facing backlash.