Opposition Must Take Parliamentary Mandates AND Protest in the Streets
The opposition should take this to the Constitutional Court, but they will get rejected. They should start a street movement in parallel. The question is, when?
With Civil Contract holding a three-fifths majority and the opposition facing a choice between accepting or rejecting parliamentary mandates, Hovik Manucharyan proposes a dual strategy that acknowledges both the constraints and the realities of Armenian politics. If opposition parties reject mandates outright, Pashinyan can claim they are delegitimizing democracy and install more compliant opposition figures in their place, effectively neutering any checks on his power. Accepting mandates alone, however, would replicate the weak opposition model of the 2021 parliament, where Civil Contract could pass major legislation and judicial appointments without meaningful veto power.
The solution, according to Manucharyan, is to pursue all available avenues simultaneously. Opposition parties should take their parliamentary mandates and use them to present legislative alternatives and build parliamentary records. Simultaneously, they should file challenges with the Constitutional Court, knowing in advance that the court will reject them because it is packed with Civil Contract appointees, many of whom were party members until their recent appointments. This appeal serves as a legal record and delegitimizes the court’s decisions in the eyes of the public and international observers.
Critically, the opposition must launch street protests in parallel with these formal channels. Manucharyan acknowledges that institutional mechanisms alone will not dislodge Pashinyan’s government. The only effective path to change will come through sustained mass mobilization, similar to the so-called Velvet Revolution of 2018, but facing a much harder regime than the one that fell then. The timing of these street movements remains unclear, and opposition leaders must make difficult strategic decisions about whether to escalate immediately or wait months before building pressure. Without street action, Manucharyan concludes, the opposition has no viable path to power or to challenging Pashinyan’s consolidation of control.
Transcript
Hovik: take this to the Constitutional Court. Hovik: They will get rejected by the Constitutional Court, Hovik: but they should start a street movement in parallel. Hovik: And the street movement, I think, is going to happen no matter what. Hovik: The question is, Hovik: like Arthur Martirosyan said during the last podcast, Hovik: how successful, Hovik: how many people can the opposition bring? Hovik: How long can they sustain? Hovik: And what is going to be the timing of the opposition? Hovik: Because some in the opposition may have differing views in terms of, Hovik: okay, Hovik: do we start massive protests until there is a regime change à la 2018 now, Hovik: or do we wait a few months and do it later? Hovik: There are going to be a lot of tough questions that the opposition leaders have to answer. Hovik: None of them are very satisfying right now in terms of the choices, Hovik: but the opposition essentially is the only legitimate, Hovik: the only real way to change this government is going to be through the streets. Hovik: So the street pressure should start. Hovik: The question is when?