Why Armenia and Georgia Must Stay United or Face Azerbaijan Hegemony

The European Union is promoting the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) project, which frames Armenia as the shortest transit corridor between Central Asia and Europe through the Middle Corridor. This positioning has created competition between Armenia and Georgia, which currently hosts the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, the established regional transport link. EU leadership under Ursula von der Leyen has explicitly endorsed Armenia’s role in this corridor project, seemingly to pressure Georgia away from Russian influence and back into the European orbit.

Host Hovik Manucharyan argues this competition is precisely what external powers want. If Armenia and Georgia compete for corridor traffic and Western investment, they divide their strategic leverage. Analyst Hakob Badalyan has identified a real danger: Azerbaijan can exploit this competition by positioning itself as the regional intermediary and power broker. Whether the West’s TRIPP project succeeds or Russia reasserts hegemony in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan emerges stronger. In either scenario, both Turkey and Azerbaijan benefit because they have positioned themselves to profit from any geopolitical outcome.

The solution, Manucharyan argues, is for Armenia and Georgia to maintain a unified strategic partnership regardless of who leads either government. If they remain cohesive, they can resist external manipulation and prevent any single power from dominating the South Caucasus. If they fracture over corridor competition or Western enticements, Azerbaijan will consolidate regional hegemony, backed by Turkey, and the balance of power will shift decisively against both neighbors. The stakes extend beyond Armenia and Georgia: Iranian and Russian interests are also threatened by a Turkish-Azerbaijani hegemon.