Category: Geopolitics

Christine Arakelian explains how the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran wars have permanently fractured Trump’s coalition among Muslim Americans, Orthodox Christians, and diaspora populations who now see themselves as used.

Christine Arakelian argues Israel’s strategy is not peace but dominance through maintaining weak neighbors: Syria destabilized, Gaza in chaos, West Bank under settler pressure.

Christine Arakelian explains how NATO 3.0 represents a fundamental power shift: Europe’s increased defense spending will give it greater strategic independence, reducing US influence over European decision-making.

Arakelian argues that Pashinyan’s Western pivot lacks congressional support because it ignores the Armenian-American diaspora, capping Armenia’s influence in Washington and making the strategy vulnerable to changes in administration.

Christine Arakelian argues that the $400 million allocated to TRIPP is grossly insufficient compared to similar corridor projects, casting doubt on US commitment to Armenia’s western pivot.

Arakelian argues that Turkey was the real winner of the NATO summit, exploiting US strategic distraction to build parallel alliances with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt while maintaining NATO membership.

Christine Arakelian argues the US has fundamentally broken alignment with its closest historical allies, citing tariffs on Canada, deprioritized UK trade deals, and divergence on Middle East policy.

Christine Arakelian explains why the US consistently enters wars easily but struggles to end them, citing institutional inertia, echo chambers, and human psychology rather than strategic necessity.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Christine Arakelian about American foreign policy fractures, Iran war risks, and Armenia’s pivot to the West. We discuss whether the United States has coherent foreign policy, the collapse of the MAGA coalition over Forever Wars, NATO 3.0 and Europe’s militarization, and how Pashinyan’s post-2026 Armenian Parliamentary Election government is navigating TRIPP amid global instability.

Hovik explains the strategic pressure Russia is placing on Armenia through trade restrictions, including a dairy embargo, as Pashinyan is forced to call Putin to negotiate while Armenia seeks alternative energy sources from Iran.

Asbed describes how Aliyev publicly contradicted Merz’s denial of secret German-Russian talks in Baku, exposing the backchannels and leverage plays reshaping Ukraine peace negotiations.

Asbed and Hovik dissect how Ukrainian drones reached the Caspian Sea undetected, exploring launch routes, NATO intelligence support, and the strategic implications for the region.

Archil Sikharulidze alleges that Brussels is waging a ‘full-scale Cold War’ against Georgia because Georgian Dream refused to align with EU pressure to confront Russia.

Archil Sikharulidze explains how Georgia evolved from radical anti-Russian stance to pragmatic balanced policy without abandoning European aspirations.

Archil Sikharulidze analyzes why Kyiv suddenly reversed course and engaged Georgian Dream after attempting to isolate it, revealing Kyiv’s shrinking alliance options.

Archil Sikharulidze argues that civil society organizations in Georgia, Armenia, and Russia are not independent movements but foreign-funded instruments operating under Western control.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Dr. Archil Sikharulidze about Russia’s shifting strategy in the South Caucasus and Armenia and Georgia’s diverging paths. We discuss Moscow’s assessment of Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process developments, Georgia’s widening dispute with Europe, Armenia’s shift away from Russia, and how regional transit corridors reshape geopolitical competition between Moscow, Brussels, and Washington.

Barsamian weighs Armenia’s foreign policy pivot to the West against the persistent threat from unrepentant neighbors: can true security come without Turkey’s acknowledgment and commitment?

Hovik explains Iran’s economic coercive leverage: by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf desalination plants, Tehran can pressure Washington into negotiations more effectively than military tactics alone.

Konstantin Sokolov, a Trump megadonor, was appointed to lead TRIPP+, a U.S. fund managing $200 million in South Caucasus investments, the same week he acquired Armenia’s second-largest copper mine. The hosts examine the conflict of interest.

Hovik argues the U.S. lacks a coherent strategy in the escalating Iran conflict, citing John Mearsheimer’s assessment that Washington is flailing without a clear path to victory.

Hovik details Iran’s formal request for TRIPP safeguards and Pashinyan’s dismissal, illustrating Armenia’s strategic pivot away from its longtime partner toward NATO.

Hovik explains Turkey’s expanded strategic importance in NATO, positioning TRIPP as a European long-term project to exclude Russia and Iran, not merely a transit corridor.

Suslov argues the EU cannot replace Russia as Armenia’s economic partner due to protectionism, geography, and the failure of similar EU integration models in Georgia and Ukraine.

Dr. Suslov explains how drone dominance on the battlefield has transformed the Ukraine war into grinding attrition, making traditional maneuver warfare impossible.

Suslov argues that Russian military victory in Ukraine could be hollow if coupled with loss of influence in Armenia, Moldova, and the South Caucasus-but emphasizes that nothing is permanent.

Suslov warns that Europe is deliberately prolonging the Ukraine conflict to buy time for rearmament under NATO 3.0, potentially creating a more dangerous confrontation.

Suslov compares Pashinyan’s regime to Georgia’s Saakashvili, arguing Armenia is being systematically repurposed as a Western pawn against Russia.

Suslov explains Russia’s conflicted view of TRIPP: a strategic threat violating the 2020 agreement, but potentially negotiable as a way to preserve Russian influence.

Suslov explains Russia’s demand that Armenia hold a referendum to legitimize its choice between Eurasian integration and Western alignment, rejecting Pashinyan’s pivot as undemocratic.

Suslov warns that if Western-directed deep strikes into Russia intensify, Moscow may escalate not against Ukraine but directly against the West, crossing a dangerous threshold.

Suslov explains the paradox of Russian-Turkish relations: Moscow views Ankara as a regional rival across multiple fronts, yet maintains an official partnership framework.

Markedonov analyzes Israel’s Armenian Genocide recognition as geopolitical calculation rather than moral awakening, explaining why Pashinyan rejected it as weaponization.

Markedonov critiques the scale and sincerity of EU support for Pashinyan’s Western pivot, arguing that symbolic backing cannot replace Armenia’s deep economic ties to Russia.

Markedonov reveals Russia’s actual red lines in the South Caucasus, explaining why TRIPP matters beyond transportation logistics and what military escalation would mean for the region.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Baku and praised Aliyev for peace and cooperation, while remaining silent on Armenian POWs still held, ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, and destruction of Armenian heritage sites.

Hovik’s stark warning that EU priorities have shifted so radically toward Azerbaijan that even large-scale ethnic cleansing would likely be reframed as regional stability and economic progress.

Ambassador Aghajanian explains why Russia has escalated restrictions on Armenian exports and issued warnings to Pashinyan, arguing Pashinyan has crossed Moscow’s red lines by pursuing a Western pivot while maintaining EAEU membership.

Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian explains how Iran is militarily, politically, and economically preparing for an anticipated third phase of conflict with Israel and the US, including reconstruction efforts and logistics planning.

Ambassador Aghajanian argues that Israel’s cabinet vote to recognize the Armenian Genocide is not a moral act but a geopolitical pressure tool against Turkey regarding participation in planned military operations against Iran.

Armen Grigoryan’s participation in a Ukraine reconstruction conference in Gdańsk signals to Russia that Armenia may be considering freezing Russian assets, escalating tensions.

Hovik argues Israel’s Armenian Genocide recognition is a geopolitical move against Turkey, not a moral awakening, rooted in the Iran-US Memorandum and Trump’s regional realignment.

Armenia agreed to route internet traffic through Azerbaijan, creating cybersecurity vulnerabilities and strategic dependency on a hostile neighbor with territorial ambitions.

Hovik warns that the US-Iran ceasefire could mirror the failed Minsk agreements, where the West negotiated peace while secretly rearming for a stronger offensive.

Dr. Grigoryan explains how Israel’s veto power threatens the US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, and why Netanyahu has incentives to sabotage any agreement.

Grigoryan argues that US-Israel tensions are becoming public and dangerous, with officials like J.D. Vance openly questioning Israeli policy in unprecedented ways.

Hrant Mikaelian analyzes why the EU’s 50 million euro credit line cannot realistically replace the Russian market for Armenian agricultural exports, and how logistics costs make European market access illusory.

Hrant Mikaelian details how U.S. and European intelligence agencies, along with a Brussels-Berlin technical coordination group, directly shaped Armenia’s June 2026 elections to advance anti-Russian and TRIPP corridor objectives.

Hovik explains why Israel’s refusal to commit to the U.S.-Iran interim agreement creates a fatal flaw: Iran insisted fighting stop on all fronts including Lebanon, but Israel has no intention of withdrawing.

Hovik warns that Armenia and Georgia must maintain strong partnership to resist external pressures. Without unity, Azerbaijan will emerge as the regional hegemon, benefiting from competition between its neighbors.

Arthur Martirosyan argues that Western powers used a pro-Russian versus pro-Western frame to shield Pashinyan from scrutiny over election violations and democratic backsliding.

Dr. Arman Grigoryan joins Groong to discuss Armenia’s post-2020 foreign policy and his argument that Pashinyan’s government has replaced one failed project, maximalist claims over Artsakh, with another: a risky strategic pivot away from Russia and toward the West. The conversation examines “revolutionary recklessness,” the roots of the 2020 war, Armenia’s worsening ties with Russia, the surrender of Artsakh, TRIPP and Syunik, Western encouragement, and the absence of firm security guarantees. Grigoryan also considers whether Armenia is gaining real sovereignty or exposing itself to greater pressure from Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Russia.

This Conversations on Groong episode with Mikael Darbinian examines Armenia’s security crisis through the lens of the Strong Armenia doctrine. The discussion focuses on deterrence, diplomacy from a position of strength, Azerbaijani positions inside Armenia’s sovereign territory, the risks around TRIPP and the Zangezur Corridor, the rights of Artsakh Armenians, regional war scenarios involving Iran, and the gap between international political theater and Armenia’s unresolved national security threats.