Category: Geopolitics

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Hrant Mikaelian about chip diplomacy, the TRIPP framework, and Armenia’s structural economic vulnerabilities. We discuss how the U.S. fast-tracked advanced AI exports to secure the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process agreement, the massive energy demands of the planned Firebird data center, Armenia’s deepening education crisis, and the risks of energy dependence as the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant approaches shutdown.

In this Groong Week in Review episode, Hovik and Asbed examine the fourth anniversary of the September 2022 border war, Azerbaijan’s ongoing occupation of Armenian territory, and Pashinyan’s political trajectory toward recognizing Artsakh’s loss. We discuss Hajiyev’s inflammatory rhetoric, Armenia’s muted diplomatic response, TRIPP and semiconductor sovereignty, Pashinyan’s attendance at a Paris space summit, Russian financial flows through Armenia, and Russia-Iran coordination in the South Caucasus.

Suren Sargsyan warns that Pashinyan’s government has developed no contingency plans if the U.S.-backed TRIPP project fails, leaving the country dangerously exposed.

Suren Sargsyan argues that Armenia’s best survival strategy is to avoid picking sides in the Russia-West rivalry, despite mounting pressure from both sides.

Suren Sargsyan traces the origins of TRIPP back decades and identifies Steve Witkoff as the key architect of the current U.S. initiative.

Suren Sargsyan argues the Trump administration lacks a clear exit strategy in its escalating war with Iran, creating deeper policy problems.

Suren Sargsyan analyzes why both Putin and Pashinyan publicly defer the decision on the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri, avoiding responsibility while maintaining the status quo.

Suren Sargsyan explores whether Russia might cede South Caucasus dominance to Iran as a strategic partner, given Moscow’s focus on Ukraine.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Suren Sargsyan about the Iran War and great power competition for Armenia’s strategic position. We discuss Washington’s unclear endgame in the conflict with Iran, the future of Russia’s military presence in Armenia and CSTO membership, and competing U.S. and European interests in new east-west transit routes through Armenia and Central Asia amid broader geopolitical rivalries.

Putin congratulates imprisoned Robert Kocharyan on his birthday while ignoring Pashinyan’s reelection. The hosts decode the geopolitical message behind this selective honor.

Asbed asks why the Kremlin misjudged a war everyone knew would pit Russia against NATO, notes that China’s backing keeps Russia in the fight, and relays that many analysts now see the early days of World War III.

Tigranashen, a small village controlling roads between North and South Armenia, is the next territorial concession demanded by Azerbaijan as the price of ‘peace.’ Its strategic value exposes the coercive nature of the settlement.

Pashinyan explicitly stated Armenia comprises 29,743 sq km, excluding Tigranashen. Expert analyzes this strategic territory’s importance and why Azerbaijan uses Jermuk occupation as leverage.

Pashinyan offers TRIPP stakes to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to isolate Russia while EU seeks Central Asian access. Expert analyzes broader European strategy in Central Asia and China’s role.

Matlock advises Armenia to avoid choosing sides in great-power competition and instead prioritize peaceful relations with neighbors and preservation of cultural identity.

Matlock contrasts Reagan’s respectful Cold War diplomacy with contemporary Western leaders’ public insults toward foreign counterparts, arguing the shift undermines conflict resolution.

Matlock, present at the negotiations, provides firsthand testimony that James Baker did assure the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand eastward, and explains how this pledge was later circumvented.

Matlock argues the U.S. and NATO applied double standards in military intervention, citing the Iraq invasion and Libya campaign while accusing Russia of violating international law.

Ambassador Matlock argues that internal Soviet weaknesses, not Western military or economic pressure, caused the USSR’s collapse, and that the Cold War had already ended before the Union broke apart.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Ambassador Jack Matlock, the last US Ambassador to the Soviet Union, about whether the West missed a historic opportunity to integrate Russia into Western security architecture after the Cold War. We discuss the internal collapse of the Soviet Union, Reagan-Gorbachev diplomacy, NATO expansion and Russian backlash, and how Cold War-era decisions shape Armenia’s geopolitical choices today, including Matlock’s firsthand observations of Soviet Armenia during glasnost and the Nagorno Karabakh movement.

Russia ultimatum: Armenia must decide by December 2026 whether to hold EU membership referendum or face EAEU suspension. Ambassador explains why both paths lead to economic devastation.

Ambassador Aghajanian breaks down the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement as a U.S.-orchestrated strategy to isolate Iran and position Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia for potential ground operations against Iranian interests.

Former Ambassador Aghajanian argues TRIPP is designed as part of a U.S.-led ground operation strategy against Iran, putting Armenia in an extremely vulnerable position.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Dziunik Aghajanian about Armenia’s precarious position between Iran, Russia, and emerging Middle East power shifts. We discuss the Mecca joint defense pact signed by Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s warnings over TRIPP, Ilham Aliyev’s militarization plans in Nakhijevan, Armenia’s growing energy dependence, Russian deadlines for Yerevan, and how the Established Opposition is testing its parliamentary strategy ahead of the 2026 Armenian Parliamentary Election.

Aliyev revealed that Azerbaijani technical teams have surveyed transmission line routes through Syunik for TRIPP, and he is now signaling that Armenia’s nuclear power plant could become a future demand.

A senior Iranian military advisor warns that Armenia will face the same treatment as US bases in the Middle East if TRIPP becomes a problem for Iran.

Experts argue Nakhichevan’s extreme militarization under Aliyev is primarily aimed at Iran, not Armenia, and reflects preparations for potential future conflict.

Russia has given Armenia until December 2026 to hold a referendum on EU membership or face suspension from the Eurasian Economic Union and potential sanctions.

Campbell proposes that Armenia’s landlocked position and fiber connectivity could make it a regional data hub, turning potential vulnerability into strategic advantage through trade and interconnection.

Campbell explains why Armenia’s data center need not violate export controls to gain strategic value, focusing on building institutional knowledge and sovereignty over the long term.

Richard Campbell argues that the comparison of AI development to the Manhattan Project is flawed, and that AGI promises are largely driven by investment incentives rather than scientific reality.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Richard Campbell about artificial intelligence infrastructure and Armenia’s Firebird project. We discuss the global AI race, the economics and energy demands of data centers, whether current AI valuations align with physical and economic realities, and what sovereign AI capacity means for Armenia’s strategic positioning.

Hovik profiles Aryeh Lightstone, the Orthodox rabbi and Abraham Accords architect now advising on TRIPP implementation in Armenia.

Asbed and Hovik discuss Armenia’s impossible balancing act between EAEU membership and EU integration, and the economic and political consequences of Pashinyan’s refusal to choose.

Hovik and Asbed discuss the Mecca Joint Deterrence Agreement between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia-a major geopolitical realignment with serious implications for Armenia and the region.

Hrant Mikaelian argues that appeasement of aggressors, citing the pre-WWII Chamberlain-Daladier example, historically fails to prevent war and invites further aggression.

Hrant Mikaelian holds Pashinyan responsible for the 2020 war loss, alleging he dismantled the military rearmament plans developed by the previous government and failed negotiations.

Hrant Mikaelian explains that Russia’s demand for an Armenian referendum on EU/EAEU membership is designed to create a pretext for legally expelling Armenia from the Eurasian Economic Union.

Hovik Manucharyan argues that Pashinyan has already agreed to hand over Tigranashen and is executing a piecemeal territorial surrender strategy, bypassing Soviet-era border protocols.

Asbed explains how Pashinyan has committed Syunik’s transit corridor simultaneously to Russia via the 2020 ceasefire and to the US-backed TRIPP framework, creating an irresolvable conflict.

Hovik reveals that Pashinyan’s sudden claims of Russian railway mismanagement appeared only after unnamed Western countries pressured him to remove Russian control, signaling geopolitical rather than operational motives.

New parliament speaker Ruben Rubinyan evades direct questions about whether Tigranashen, a strategically critical Armenian territory, falls within the government’s stated 29,743 square kilometers.

Hovik explains why Pashinyan’s proposed Gyumri-Kars railway through Nakhijevan is a fiction: Turkey already has a multi-billion-dollar direct line, and Aliyev has made clear no northern Armenian route exists.

In this week’s Groong Week in Review, Hovik and Asbed discuss Armenia’s new parliament sworn in on August 2, 2026, and the Armenia Alliance’s direct challenge to Civil Contract over Tigranashen. We examine the government’s evasive responses on territorial red lines, Armenia’s challenge to Russia’s railway concession, and how TRIPP reshapes regional power dynamics in the South Caucasus.