Category: Geopolitics

Campbell proposes that Armenia’s landlocked position and fiber connectivity could make it a regional data hub, turning potential vulnerability into strategic advantage through trade and interconnection.

Campbell explains why Armenia’s data center need not violate export controls to gain strategic value, focusing on building institutional knowledge and sovereignty over the long term.

Richard Campbell argues that the comparison of AI development to the Manhattan Project is flawed, and that AGI promises are largely driven by investment incentives rather than scientific reality.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Richard Campbell about artificial intelligence infrastructure and Armenia’s Firebird project. We discuss the global AI race, the economics and energy demands of data centers, whether current AI valuations align with physical and economic realities, and what sovereign AI capacity means for Armenia’s strategic positioning.

Hovik profiles Aryeh Lightstone, the Orthodox rabbi and Abraham Accords architect now advising on TRIPP implementation in Armenia.

Asbed and Hovik discuss Armenia’s impossible balancing act between EAEU membership and EU integration, and the economic and political consequences of Pashinyan’s refusal to choose.

Hovik and Asbed discuss the Mecca Joint Deterrence Agreement between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia-a major geopolitical realignment with serious implications for Armenia and the region.

Hrant Mikaelian argues that appeasement of aggressors, citing the pre-WWII Chamberlain-Daladier example, historically fails to prevent war and invites further aggression.

Hrant Mikaelian holds Pashinyan responsible for the 2020 war loss, alleging he dismantled the military rearmament plans developed by the previous government and failed negotiations.

Hrant Mikaelian explains that Russia’s demand for an Armenian referendum on EU/EAEU membership is designed to create a pretext for legally expelling Armenia from the Eurasian Economic Union.

Hovik Manucharyan argues that Pashinyan has already agreed to hand over Tigranashen and is executing a piecemeal territorial surrender strategy, bypassing Soviet-era border protocols.

Asbed explains how Pashinyan has committed Syunik’s transit corridor simultaneously to Russia via the 2020 ceasefire and to the US-backed TRIPP framework, creating an irresolvable conflict.

Hovik reveals that Pashinyan’s sudden claims of Russian railway mismanagement appeared only after unnamed Western countries pressured him to remove Russian control, signaling geopolitical rather than operational motives.

New parliament speaker Ruben Rubinyan evades direct questions about whether Tigranashen, a strategically critical Armenian territory, falls within the government’s stated 29,743 square kilometers.

Hovik explains why Pashinyan’s proposed Gyumri-Kars railway through Nakhijevan is a fiction: Turkey already has a multi-billion-dollar direct line, and Aliyev has made clear no northern Armenian route exists.

In this week’s Groong Week in Review, Hovik and Asbed discuss Armenia’s new parliament sworn in on August 2, 2026, and the Armenia Alliance’s direct challenge to Civil Contract over Tigranashen. We examine the government’s evasive responses on territorial red lines, Armenia’s challenge to Russia’s railway concession, and how TRIPP reshapes regional power dynamics in the South Caucasus.

Christine Arakelian explains how the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran wars have permanently fractured Trump’s coalition among Muslim Americans, Orthodox Christians, and diaspora populations who now see themselves as used.

Christine Arakelian argues Israel’s strategy is not peace but dominance through maintaining weak neighbors: Syria destabilized, Gaza in chaos, West Bank under settler pressure.

Christine Arakelian explains how NATO 3.0 represents a fundamental power shift: Europe’s increased defense spending will give it greater strategic independence, reducing US influence over European decision-making.

Arakelian argues that Pashinyan’s Western pivot lacks congressional support because it ignores the Armenian-American diaspora, capping Armenia’s influence in Washington and making the strategy vulnerable to changes in administration.

Christine Arakelian argues that the $400 million allocated to TRIPP is grossly insufficient compared to similar corridor projects, casting doubt on US commitment to Armenia’s western pivot.

Arakelian argues that Turkey was the real winner of the NATO summit, exploiting US strategic distraction to build parallel alliances with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt while maintaining NATO membership.

Christine Arakelian argues the US has fundamentally broken alignment with its closest historical allies, citing tariffs on Canada, deprioritized UK trade deals, and divergence on Middle East policy.

Christine Arakelian explains why the US consistently enters wars easily but struggles to end them, citing institutional inertia, echo chambers, and human psychology rather than strategic necessity.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Christine Arakelian about American foreign policy fractures, Iran war risks, and Armenia’s pivot to the West. We discuss whether the United States has coherent foreign policy, the collapse of the MAGA coalition over Forever Wars, NATO 3.0 and Europe’s militarization, and how Pashinyan’s post-2026 Armenian Parliamentary Election government is navigating TRIPP amid global instability.

Hovik explains the strategic pressure Russia is placing on Armenia through trade restrictions, including a dairy embargo, as Pashinyan is forced to call Putin to negotiate while Armenia seeks alternative energy sources from Iran.

Asbed describes how Aliyev publicly contradicted Merz’s denial of secret German-Russian talks in Baku, exposing the backchannels and leverage plays reshaping Ukraine peace negotiations.

Asbed and Hovik dissect how Ukrainian drones reached the Caspian Sea undetected, exploring launch routes, NATO intelligence support, and the strategic implications for the region.

Archil Sikharulidze alleges that Brussels is waging a ‘full-scale Cold War’ against Georgia because Georgian Dream refused to align with EU pressure to confront Russia.

Archil Sikharulidze explains how Georgia evolved from radical anti-Russian stance to pragmatic balanced policy without abandoning European aspirations.

Archil Sikharulidze analyzes why Kyiv suddenly reversed course and engaged Georgian Dream after attempting to isolate it, revealing Kyiv’s shrinking alliance options.

Archil Sikharulidze argues that civil society organizations in Georgia, Armenia, and Russia are not independent movements but foreign-funded instruments operating under Western control.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Dr. Archil Sikharulidze about Russia’s shifting strategy in the South Caucasus and Armenia and Georgia’s diverging paths. We discuss Moscow’s assessment of Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process developments, Georgia’s widening dispute with Europe, Armenia’s shift away from Russia, and how regional transit corridors reshape geopolitical competition between Moscow, Brussels, and Washington.

Barsamian weighs Armenia’s foreign policy pivot to the West against the persistent threat from unrepentant neighbors: can true security come without Turkey’s acknowledgment and commitment?

Hovik explains Iran’s economic coercive leverage: by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf desalination plants, Tehran can pressure Washington into negotiations more effectively than military tactics alone.

Konstantin Sokolov, a Trump megadonor, was appointed to lead TRIPP+, a U.S. fund managing $200 million in South Caucasus investments, the same week he acquired Armenia’s second-largest copper mine. The hosts examine the conflict of interest.

Hovik argues the U.S. lacks a coherent strategy in the escalating Iran conflict, citing John Mearsheimer’s assessment that Washington is flailing without a clear path to victory.

Hovik details Iran’s formal request for TRIPP safeguards and Pashinyan’s dismissal, illustrating Armenia’s strategic pivot away from its longtime partner toward NATO.

Hovik explains Turkey’s expanded strategic importance in NATO, positioning TRIPP as a European long-term project to exclude Russia and Iran, not merely a transit corridor.

Suslov argues the EU cannot replace Russia as Armenia’s economic partner due to protectionism, geography, and the failure of similar EU integration models in Georgia and Ukraine.

Dr. Suslov explains how drone dominance on the battlefield has transformed the Ukraine war into grinding attrition, making traditional maneuver warfare impossible.

Suslov argues that Russian military victory in Ukraine could be hollow if coupled with loss of influence in Armenia, Moldova, and the South Caucasus-but emphasizes that nothing is permanent.

Suslov warns that Europe is deliberately prolonging the Ukraine conflict to buy time for rearmament under NATO 3.0, potentially creating a more dangerous confrontation.

Suslov compares Pashinyan’s regime to Georgia’s Saakashvili, arguing Armenia is being systematically repurposed as a Western pawn against Russia.

Suslov explains Russia’s conflicted view of TRIPP: a strategic threat violating the 2020 agreement, but potentially negotiable as a way to preserve Russian influence.

Suslov explains Russia’s demand that Armenia hold a referendum to legitimize its choice between Eurasian integration and Western alignment, rejecting Pashinyan’s pivot as undemocratic.

Suslov warns that if Western-directed deep strikes into Russia intensify, Moscow may escalate not against Ukraine but directly against the West, crossing a dangerous threshold.

Suslov explains the paradox of Russian-Turkish relations: Moscow views Ankara as a regional rival across multiple fronts, yet maintains an official partnership framework.

Markedonov analyzes Israel’s Armenian Genocide recognition as geopolitical calculation rather than moral awakening, explaining why Pashinyan rejected it as weaponization.

Markedonov critiques the scale and sincerity of EU support for Pashinyan’s Western pivot, arguing that symbolic backing cannot replace Armenia’s deep economic ties to Russia.

Markedonov reveals Russia’s actual red lines in the South Caucasus, explaining why TRIPP matters beyond transportation logistics and what military escalation would mean for the region.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Baku and praised Aliyev for peace and cooperation, while remaining silent on Armenian POWs still held, ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, and destruction of Armenian heritage sites.