Category: Geopolitics

Pashinyan explicitly stated Armenia comprises 29,743 sq km, excluding Tigranashen. Expert analyzes this strategic territory’s importance and why Azerbaijan uses Jermuk occupation as leverage.

Pashinyan offers TRIPP stakes to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to isolate Russia while EU seeks Central Asian access. Expert analyzes broader European strategy in Central Asia and China’s role.

Matlock advises Armenia to avoid choosing sides in great-power competition and instead prioritize peaceful relations with neighbors and preservation of cultural identity.

Matlock contrasts Reagan’s respectful Cold War diplomacy with contemporary Western leaders’ public insults toward foreign counterparts, arguing the shift undermines conflict resolution.

Matlock, present at the negotiations, provides firsthand testimony that James Baker did assure the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand eastward, and explains how this pledge was later circumvented.

Matlock argues the U.S. and NATO applied double standards in military intervention, citing the Iraq invasion and Libya campaign while accusing Russia of violating international law.

Ambassador Matlock argues that internal Soviet weaknesses, not Western military or economic pressure, caused the USSR’s collapse, and that the Cold War had already ended before the Union broke apart.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Ambassador Jack Matlock, the last US Ambassador to the Soviet Union, about whether the West missed a historic opportunity to integrate Russia into Western security architecture after the Cold War. We discuss the internal collapse of the Soviet Union, Reagan-Gorbachev diplomacy, NATO expansion and Russian backlash, and how Cold War-era decisions shape Armenia’s geopolitical choices today, including Matlock’s firsthand observations of Soviet Armenia during glasnost and the Nagorno Karabakh movement.

Russia ultimatum: Armenia must decide by December 2026 whether to hold EU membership referendum or face EAEU suspension. Ambassador explains why both paths lead to economic devastation.

Ambassador Aghajanian breaks down the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement as a U.S.-orchestrated strategy to isolate Iran and position Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia for potential ground operations against Iranian interests.

Former Ambassador Aghajanian argues TRIPP is designed as part of a U.S.-led ground operation strategy against Iran, putting Armenia in an extremely vulnerable position.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Dziunik Aghajanian about Armenia’s precarious position between Iran, Russia, and emerging Middle East power shifts. We discuss the Mecca joint defense pact signed by Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s warnings over TRIPP, Ilham Aliyev’s militarization plans in Nakhijevan, Armenia’s growing energy dependence, Russian deadlines for Yerevan, and how the Established Opposition is testing its parliamentary strategy ahead of the 2026 Armenian Parliamentary Election.

Aliyev revealed that Azerbaijani technical teams have surveyed transmission line routes through Syunik for TRIPP, and he is now signaling that Armenia’s nuclear power plant could become a future demand.

A senior Iranian military advisor warns that Armenia will face the same treatment as US bases in the Middle East if TRIPP becomes a problem for Iran.

Experts argue Nakhichevan’s extreme militarization under Aliyev is primarily aimed at Iran, not Armenia, and reflects preparations for potential future conflict.

Russia has given Armenia until December 2026 to hold a referendum on EU membership or face suspension from the Eurasian Economic Union and potential sanctions.

Campbell proposes that Armenia’s landlocked position and fiber connectivity could make it a regional data hub, turning potential vulnerability into strategic advantage through trade and interconnection.

Campbell explains why Armenia’s data center need not violate export controls to gain strategic value, focusing on building institutional knowledge and sovereignty over the long term.

Richard Campbell argues that the comparison of AI development to the Manhattan Project is flawed, and that AGI promises are largely driven by investment incentives rather than scientific reality.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Richard Campbell about artificial intelligence infrastructure and Armenia’s Firebird project. We discuss the global AI race, the economics and energy demands of data centers, whether current AI valuations align with physical and economic realities, and what sovereign AI capacity means for Armenia’s strategic positioning.

Hovik profiles Aryeh Lightstone, the Orthodox rabbi and Abraham Accords architect now advising on TRIPP implementation in Armenia.

Asbed and Hovik discuss Armenia’s impossible balancing act between EAEU membership and EU integration, and the economic and political consequences of Pashinyan’s refusal to choose.

Hovik and Asbed discuss the Mecca Joint Deterrence Agreement between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia-a major geopolitical realignment with serious implications for Armenia and the region.

Hrant Mikaelian argues that appeasement of aggressors, citing the pre-WWII Chamberlain-Daladier example, historically fails to prevent war and invites further aggression.

Hrant Mikaelian holds Pashinyan responsible for the 2020 war loss, alleging he dismantled the military rearmament plans developed by the previous government and failed negotiations.

Hrant Mikaelian explains that Russia’s demand for an Armenian referendum on EU/EAEU membership is designed to create a pretext for legally expelling Armenia from the Eurasian Economic Union.

Hovik Manucharyan argues that Pashinyan has already agreed to hand over Tigranashen and is executing a piecemeal territorial surrender strategy, bypassing Soviet-era border protocols.

Asbed explains how Pashinyan has committed Syunik’s transit corridor simultaneously to Russia via the 2020 ceasefire and to the US-backed TRIPP framework, creating an irresolvable conflict.

Hovik reveals that Pashinyan’s sudden claims of Russian railway mismanagement appeared only after unnamed Western countries pressured him to remove Russian control, signaling geopolitical rather than operational motives.

New parliament speaker Ruben Rubinyan evades direct questions about whether Tigranashen, a strategically critical Armenian territory, falls within the government’s stated 29,743 square kilometers.

Hovik explains why Pashinyan’s proposed Gyumri-Kars railway through Nakhijevan is a fiction: Turkey already has a multi-billion-dollar direct line, and Aliyev has made clear no northern Armenian route exists.

In this week’s Groong Week in Review, Hovik and Asbed discuss Armenia’s new parliament sworn in on August 2, 2026, and the Armenia Alliance’s direct challenge to Civil Contract over Tigranashen. We examine the government’s evasive responses on territorial red lines, Armenia’s challenge to Russia’s railway concession, and how TRIPP reshapes regional power dynamics in the South Caucasus.

Christine Arakelian explains how the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran wars have permanently fractured Trump’s coalition among Muslim Americans, Orthodox Christians, and diaspora populations who now see themselves as used.

Christine Arakelian argues Israel’s strategy is not peace but dominance through maintaining weak neighbors: Syria destabilized, Gaza in chaos, West Bank under settler pressure.

Christine Arakelian explains how NATO 3.0 represents a fundamental power shift: Europe’s increased defense spending will give it greater strategic independence, reducing US influence over European decision-making.

Arakelian argues that Pashinyan’s Western pivot lacks congressional support because it ignores the Armenian-American diaspora, capping Armenia’s influence in Washington and making the strategy vulnerable to changes in administration.

Christine Arakelian argues that the $400 million allocated to TRIPP is grossly insufficient compared to similar corridor projects, casting doubt on US commitment to Armenia’s western pivot.

Arakelian argues that Turkey was the real winner of the NATO summit, exploiting US strategic distraction to build parallel alliances with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt while maintaining NATO membership.

Christine Arakelian argues the US has fundamentally broken alignment with its closest historical allies, citing tariffs on Canada, deprioritized UK trade deals, and divergence on Middle East policy.

Christine Arakelian explains why the US consistently enters wars easily but struggles to end them, citing institutional inertia, echo chambers, and human psychology rather than strategic necessity.

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Christine Arakelian about American foreign policy fractures, Iran war risks, and Armenia’s pivot to the West. We discuss whether the United States has coherent foreign policy, the collapse of the MAGA coalition over Forever Wars, NATO 3.0 and Europe’s militarization, and how Pashinyan’s post-2026 Armenian Parliamentary Election government is navigating TRIPP amid global instability.

Hovik explains the strategic pressure Russia is placing on Armenia through trade restrictions, including a dairy embargo, as Pashinyan is forced to call Putin to negotiate while Armenia seeks alternative energy sources from Iran.

Asbed describes how Aliyev publicly contradicted Merz’s denial of secret German-Russian talks in Baku, exposing the backchannels and leverage plays reshaping Ukraine peace negotiations.

Asbed and Hovik dissect how Ukrainian drones reached the Caspian Sea undetected, exploring launch routes, NATO intelligence support, and the strategic implications for the region.

Archil Sikharulidze alleges that Brussels is waging a ‘full-scale Cold War’ against Georgia because Georgian Dream refused to align with EU pressure to confront Russia.

Archil Sikharulidze explains how Georgia evolved from radical anti-Russian stance to pragmatic balanced policy without abandoning European aspirations.

Archil Sikharulidze analyzes why Kyiv suddenly reversed course and engaged Georgian Dream after attempting to isolate it, revealing Kyiv’s shrinking alliance options.

Archil Sikharulidze argues that civil society organizations in Georgia, Armenia, and Russia are not independent movements but foreign-funded instruments operating under Western control.