Groong Links:
Guest(s):
Topics:
- Ukraine’s long war and endgame
- Novorossiya and a landlocked Ukraine?
- Europe rearms against Russia
- NATO 3.0 and containment
- Armenia’s post-election Western pivot
- EU promises versus EAEU dependence
- TRIPP, Syunik, and Russian red lines
Episode 566 | Recorded: July 9, 2026
#Russia #UkraineWar #NATO #Europe #Armenia #SouthCaucasus #TRIPP #Syunik #EAEU
Show Notes
Summary
In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Dr. Dmitry Suslov about Russia’s strategic position across multiple fronts: the Ukraine War, Armenia’s post-election Western pivot, TRIPP and Syunik, and Europe’s rearmament against Russia. We discuss the long-term confrontation between Russia and NATO, Pashinyan’s Western alignment after the June 2026 Armenian Parliamentary Election, and how transport corridors in the South Caucasus may reshape regional containment lines.Main Topics Addressed
- Russia’s slow advance in Donbas and the role of drone warfare
- Ukraine’s deep strikes and Western military involvement
- Russia’s possible endgame in Ukraine and Novorossiya
- Europe’s rearmament and the “NATO 3.0” model
- Turkey’s role in Ukraine and the South Caucasus
- Armenia’s post-election Western pivot
- Civil Contract’s retained power after the 2026 election
- Russia’s view of Pashinyan and Armenian sovereignty
- The Armenian opposition, Samvel Karapetyan , and Strong Armenia
- EU promises versus Armenia’s EAEU dependence
- TRIPP, Syunik , and Russia’s loss of leverage
- Russia’s future role in Armenia and the South Caucasus
Key Questions Discussed
- Is Russia making real operational progress in Donbas, or is the war still a slow attritional grind?
- How have drones changed the nature of the Ukraine war?
- Can Ukraine’s long-range strikes against Russian energy and civilian infrastructure force Moscow to make concessions?
- Does Russia see Western support for Ukraine as crossing into direct Western participation in the war?
- Could Russia escalate against Europe if deep strikes inside Russia intensify?
- Has Moscow’s endgame expanded beyond Donbas to include Odessa, Kharkov, and the broader Novorossiya concept?
- Is a landlocked Ukraine now part of Russian strategic thinking, or only a maximalist view among hawks?
- Is Europe using Ukraine to buy time for its own rearmament?
- How does Russia view “NATO 3.0” and the outsourcing of conventional deterrence to Europe?
- Does Moscow see Turkey as a partner, competitor, or regional adversary?
- Does Russia view Armenia’s Western pivot as Pashinyan’s choice, or as a Western operation against Russia?
- Can Armenia remain economically tied to Russia and the EAEU while moving politically toward the EU and US?
- Does Moscow see Armenia as becoming a disruption inside Russian-led frameworks?
- Why does Russia not work more actively with Armenia’s Russia-compatible opposition?
- Does Moscow see Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia as a more serious long-term partner than the older Karabakh-war political class?
- Can EU tariff relief, grants, and credit lines replace Russian markets, gas, remittances, labor access, and EAEU integration?
- Does Russia see TRIPP as ordinary infrastructure, or as a strategic corridor that weakens Russian influence?
- Is Russian participation in TRIPP a red line, a bargaining chip, or a possible modus vivendi?
- What can Russia still offer Armenia to make Eurasian integration attractive again?
- If Russia wins in Ukraine but loses influence in Armenia, Moldova, and parts of the South Caucasus, is that still a strategic victory?
Wrap-up
Links and Resources
That’s our show , we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.
Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.
Guests
Dmitry Suslov
Dr. Dmitry Suslov is a Russian political scientist, foreign policy analyst, and commentator specializing in great power politics, especially Russia-US relations, European security, and the evolving international order. He serves as Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Higher School of Economics in Moscow and is also affiliated with the Valdai Discussion Club. Trained in international relations and political science, Suslov began his career as a foreign affairs journalist before moving into academia and policy research. His work focuses on multipolarity, Russian grand strategy, arms control, and relations between Russia, the West, and emerging powers. He is widely published, teaches at HSE, and is a frequent participant in international policy forums.
Hosts
Hovik Manucharyan
Hovik Manucharyan is an information security engineer who moved from Seattle to Armenia in 2022. He co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020 and has been a contributor to Groong News since the late 1990s.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by Hovik Manucharyan on the ANN/Groong podcast are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of his employer or any other organization.
Asbed Bedrossian
Asbed Bedrossian is an IT professional, and for years oversaw the central IT enterprise infrastructure and services at USC. His decades of experience spanned across IT strategy, enterprise architecture, infrastructure, cybersecurity, enterprise applications, data center operations, high performance computing, ITSM, ITPM, and more.
Asbed founded the Armenian News Network Groong circa 1989/1990, and co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020.
Related Episodes
Clips from this episode
The Deep Strike Escalation: When Ukraine Strikes Russia, Does Russia Escalate Against the West?
Pashinyan's Western Pivot: Maidanization of Armenia or Armenian Choice?
Drones Dominate: Why the Ukraine War is Stuck in Attrition
Russia's South Caucasus Dilemma: TRIPP as Strategic Containment or Negotiable Asset?
Armenia's Impossible Balancing Act: Can the EU Really Replace Russia?
NATO 3.0: Europe Rearming While Russia Stays Preoccupied in Ukraine
Russia's Ultimatum to Armenia: Referendum or Pivot Away
If Russia Wins Ukraine But Loses Armenia: Is That a Strategic Victory?
Turkey as Both Partner and Rival: Russia's No-Illusions Approach