Anatol Lieven - Russia, Iran, Europe, and the Remaking of World Order | Ep 541, May 8, 2026 [EP541]

Posted on Friday, May 8, 2026 | Series: cog

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Guest(s):

Anatol Lieven

Topics:

Russia, Iran, Europe, multipolar order
Ukraine war and Russia-West tensions
Iran war and diplomatic offramps
Armenia, TRIPP, South Caucasus

Episode 541 | Recorded: May 5, 2026

#AnatolLieven #Russia #Iran #Europe #UkraineWar #SouthCaucasus

Show Notes

Summary

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, Dr. Anatol Lieven joins us to examine Russia’s place in a rapidly shifting global order. The discussion looks at the war in Ukraine, the state of Russia-EU relations after Viktor Orbán’s political defeat, and the uncertain trajectory of the war on Iran, including whether any real diplomatic offramp still exists. They also explore whether Russia’s relationship with Iran is truly strategic or mainly transactional, how China fits into the wider balance of power, and what all of this means for the South Caucasus, Armenia’s current path under Pashinyan, and Azerbaijan’s ambitions to turn wartime leverage into lasting regional influence.

Main Topics Addressed

The current military and diplomatic deadlock in the Ukraine war
Russia’s limited options, domestic pressures, and the question of what kind of settlement remains possible
Europe’s strategy in continuing to support Ukraine and what it hopes to achieve politically
The effect of Viktor Orbán’s defeat on EU policy toward Russia and Ukraine
Whether the war on Iran is moving toward a real diplomatic offramp or only a fragile pause
Trump’s handling of Iran, including the contradictions inside his own administration
Whether Iran is likely to pursue a nuclear deterrent over the long term
Russia’s relationship with Iran, and whether it is better understood as transactional than strategic
China’s cautious approach to the Iran crisis and the wider risks of escalation with the United States
The role of Taiwan in shaping Chinese caution in the Middle East
Azerbaijan’s alignment with Israel, and the limits imposed by Turkey and Iran
TRIPP and the Zangezur Corridor as part of a wider east-west corridor project
Armenia’s geopolitical weakening after the 2020 war and the consequences of its current foreign policy direction
The sustainability of Pashinyan’s peace model and the tension between military reality and symbolic concessions
The role, and limits, of Western support for Armenia compared with Russia’s enduring structural interest in the region

Key Questions Discussed

Who ultimately decides how the Ukraine war ends, Russia, Ukraine, or Washington?
Is Europe trying to hold the line in Ukraine until American politics shift again?
Could Europe eventually normalize relations with Russia as part of a broader settlement?
How much did Orbán really matter in slowing EU policy toward Russia?
Is there a viable diplomatic settlement available in the Iran war?
Why did Trump seem uninterested in Russia helping manage Iran’s nuclear stockpile?
Is a nuclear Iran becoming more likely over time?
Is the Russia-Iran relationship strategic, or mainly transactional?
How long can China stay out of a direct confrontation over Iran if pressure in the Strait of Hormuz continues?
Can Tehran tolerate Azerbaijan’s close alignment with Israel and projects like TRIPP?
Is Azerbaijan overplaying its hand by balancing among Israel, Turkey, Iran, Russia, and the West?
Does TRIPP offer Armenia opportunity, or does it risk cutting Armenia off from Iran and deepening dependence?
Is Pashinyan securing peace, or managing Armenia into a weaker and more vulnerable position?
Can Armenian identity absorb ongoing political concessions on Artsakh, genocide memory, and national symbols?

Referenced Articles & Sources

Wrap-up

Links and Resources

That’s our show, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

Guests

Anatol Lieven

Dr. Anatol Lieven is the director of the Eurasia Program and the Andrew Bacevich chair in American Diplomatic History at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was formerly a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and in the War Studies Department of King’s College London. He also served as a member of the advisory committee of the South Asia Department of the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, and his book Pakistan: A Hard Country (Penguin UK, 2011) is on the official reading lists for US and British diplomats serving in that country. Prof. Lieven is also on the academic board of the Valdai discussion club in Russia. He holds a B.A. and Ph.D. in history and political science from Cambridge University in England.

Prof.Lieven’s latest book, Climate Change and the Nation State (Oxford University Press, 2020), was published in March 2020 and in an updated paperback edition in Fall 2021.

Hosts

Hovik Manucharyan

Hovik Manucharyan is an information security engineer who moved from Seattle to Armenia in 2022. He co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020 and has been a contributor to Groong News since the late 1990s.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by Hovik Manucharyan on the ANN/Groong podcast are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of his employer or any other organization.

Asbed Bedrossian

Asbed Bedrossian is an IT professional, and for years oversaw the central IT enterprise infrastructure and services at USC. His decades of experience spanned across IT strategy, enterprise architecture, infrastructure, cybersecurity, enterprise applications, data center operations, high performance computing, ITSM, ITPM, and more.

Asbed founded the Armenian News Network Groong circa 1989/1990, and co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020.