Hrant Mikaelian - War on Iran, Russia on TRIPP, New MPG Poll in Armenia, Economy | Ep 471, Sep 7, 2025 [EP471]

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Guest:

• Hrant Mikaelian

Topics:

• War in Iran, Chapter 2?
• Russia’s Stance on TRIPP
• New MPG Poll in Armenia
• Armenian Economy in H1/2025

Episode 471 | Recorded: September 8, 2025

Show Notes

Summary

Main Topics Addressed

• War in Iran: The E3 snapback sanctions, Iran’s possible NPT withdrawal, and risks of a U.S.-Israeli escalation.
• TRIPP Corridor: U.S. and Israeli leverage, Paul Goble’s views, Russia’s puzzling response, Iran’s split stance.
• MPG Poll Findings:
  • Attitudes toward the Aug 8 White House TRIPP agreement.
  • Views on opening a road through Syunik.
  • Whether Washington agreements will bring peace.
  • Constitutional change as a precondition from Azerbaijan.
  • Political prisoners, including Samvel Karapetyan and Bagrat Srbazan.
  • Party standings if elections were held today.
• Armenian Economy H1/2025: Decline in re-exports, slowdown in industry, underperformance of key ministries, rising debt, and growth trends in construction and agriculture.

Key Questions Discussed

• Is the West pushing Iran into a corner, and could this lead to renewed war?
• Could TRIPP serve as a launchpad for U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran?
• Why is Russia muted while Paul Goble and U.S. analysts are exuberant?
• What do the MPG poll results reveal about Armenian public opinion on TRIPP, peace prospects, constitutional change, and political prisoners?
• Does Samvel Karapetyan’s rise in polling numbers suggest a viable opposition force in 2026?
• How sustainable is Armenia’s economy given re-export decline, underperforming ministries, and rising debt?

Referenced Articles & Sources

• Al Jazeera – Russia, China slam European nations over Iran snapback sanctions move
• Mehr News – Iran parliament may discuss exit from NPT
• Foreign Policy – Israel-Iran war could come before December
• ReliefWeb – How the Goble Plan was born
• RIA – Overchuk on TRIPP
• Reuters – U.S. secures strategic transit corridor Armenia-Azerbaijan
• Luys Foundation – H1/2025 Armenian Economy report
• 168.am – Digest of Luys report
• Caucasus Watch – Armenia’s mixed economy

Thoughts from the Participants

• Hrant Mikaelian: On Netanyahu’s recognition of the Armenian Genocide and the controversial renovations at Tsitsernakaberd.
• Asbed: Questioned why Pashinyan refused to request the return of POWs or territory during the August 8 White House meeting.
• Hovik: No additional statement this week.

MPG Poll

Slide 2: Methodology

• Research method: Telephone surveys
• Sample Size: 1101
• Error Margin: ±3%
• Implementation period: August 25, 2025 - August 30, 2025
• Research location: Republic of Armenia

Slide 3: How Do You View the August 8 Meeting in DC?

On August 8, 2025, an agreement was signed in Washington between Azerbaijan, Armenia’s government, and the United States regarding the TRIPP corridor. This agreement provides for certain communications and infrastructure to pass through Armenia and Azerbaijan. What is your attitude towards this agreement, according to the following options?

Results:

• Fully positive – 22.8%
• Somewhat positive – 19.3%
• Somewhat negative – 13.6%
• Fully negative – 34.0%
• Difficult to answer – 7.0%
• Not familiar with the agreement – 3.3%

Overall:

• Positive: 42.1%
• Negative: 47.6%
• Other (DK + not familiar): 10.3%

Slide 4: How Do You View Giving a Road Through Syunik to Azerbaijan

The declaration reaffirmed that Azerbaijan and Armenia are committed to opening communications. These efforts also include ensuring communications between the main part of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic of Armenia through the Syunik region, with mutual communication opportunities for Armenia. Do you support the opening of such a road through Syunik?

Results:

• Fully support – 17.4%
• Somewhat support – 18.1%
• Somewhat oppose – 11.3%
• Fully oppose – 47.6%
• Difficult to answer – 5.6%

Overall:

• Positive: 35.5%
• Negative: 58.9%
• Other (DK): 5.6%

Slide 5: Will The Agreements In Washington Bring Lasting Peace

Do you agree that the Washington agreements will contribute to long-lasting peace in the region?

Results:

• Fully agree – 15.8%
• Somewhat agree – 22.8%
• Somewhat disagree – 13.5%
• Fully disagree – 41.6%
• Difficult to answer – 6.3%

Overall:

• Positive (agree + somewhat agree) – 38.6%
• Negative (disagree + fully disagree) – 55.1%
• Other (DK): 6.3%

Slide 6: On Changing The Constitution as a Precondition for Signing Peace

According to published information, Azerbaijan has emphasized constitutional changes in Armenia as a condition for signing a peace agreement. Which statement do you support the most?

Results:

• The Constitution of Armenia belongs to the people of Armenia, and no country, including Azerbaijan, has the right to interfere – 58.0%
• This is Azerbaijan’s internal political move and has no importance for Armenia – 25.1%
• I would support changes to Armenia’s Constitution if it helps establish lasting peace and good-neighborly relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan – 12.2%
• Difficult to answer – 4.7%

Slide 7: Political Prisoners in Armenia

Question 1 (left side)

Do you think there are political prisoners in Armenia today?

Results:

• Yes – 62%
• No – 18%
• Difficult to answer – 20%

Question 2 (right side)

If yes, who do you consider to be a political prisoner? (multiple answers possible)

Results:

• Samvel Karapetyan – 71.5%
• Bagrat Srbazan (Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan) – 38.5%
• Mikayel Ajapahyan – 37.8%
• Armen Ashotyan – 9.6%
• Varuzhan Avetisyan – 4.1%
• Artur Sargsyan – 3.3%
• Other – 13.0%

Slide 8: On Arrest of Samvel Karapetyan

Samvel Karapetyan, the founder of the Tashir Group, businessman and philanthropist, spoke out in defense of the Armenian Apostolic Church, after which he was arrested shortly after. By court decision, he was detained for 2 months, and on August 15, 2025, the detention was extended for another 2 months. What do you think of this approach by the government?

Results:

• Fully positive – June: 11.7% | August: 12.6%
• Somewhat positive – June: 4.8% | August: 5.9%
• Somewhat negative – June: 19.2% | August: 16.4%
• Fully negative – June: 57.9% | August: 48.0%
• Difficult to answer – June: 6.4% | August: 17.0%

Overall:

• Positive (fully + somewhat) – June: 16.5% | August: 18.5%
• Negative (somewhat + fully) – June: 77.1% | August: 64.4%

Slide 9: On Arrest of Archbishops

Archbishop Michael Ajapahian and Bagrat Srbazan were arrested and detained at the end of June 2025. Then, in August, the court decided to extend their detention. How do you evaluate this decision?

Results:

• Fully positive – 17.3%
• Somewhat positive – 7.7%
• Somewhat negative – 12.6%
• Fully negative – 44.2%
• Difficult to answer – 18.1%

Overall:

• Positive (fully + somewhat) – 25.0%
• Negative (somewhat + fully) – 56.8%

Slide 10: How Would You Vote if Elections Were Held This Coming Sunday

If snap parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, which party or bloc would you vote for?

Results:

• “Civil Contract” Party – 17.3% (+4.2%)
• Samvel Karapetyan’s bloc/new party – 13.4% (+10.6%)
• Armenia Alliance – 6.4%
• “Prosperous Armenia” party – 3.8%
• “I have honor” alliance – 3.4%
• DOK Party – 2.5%
• “Republic” Party – 1.1%
• Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) – 1.1%
• “Bright Armenia” Party – 1.0%
• Meritocratic Party of Armenia – 0.9%
• Armenian National Congress – 0.8%
• “A Country to Live” Party – 0.8%
• National Democratic Alliance (Bever) – 0.8%
• Social Democratic Party – 0.5%
• Other – 1.1%

Non-voters / undecided:

• Will not participate – 23.9%
• Refuse to answer – 16.3%
• Difficult to answer – 5.0%

Armenian Economy H1/2025

The Luys Foundation released its report on the Armenian economy in the first half of 2025. As expected there is some slowdown which may have bottomed out in March or April and since then it has been rebounding. The slowdown is attributed to a 12.1% decrease in the industrial sector, which itself is being blamed on the very significant decrease in the re-export sector, which last year had reached (I think) the $12.4B mark, and as Russian deputy PM Alexei Overchuk has been citing, it’s barely over $6.1B in 2025.

Of significant concern is that many areas of the government’s programs have been underperforming, under-executing their planned projects in 2025.

• Ministry of High-Tech Industry, the underperformance of expenditures is 72.8%
  • This means that they’ve basically done 27% of their projects.
  • They have a mandate for developing the Armenian military-industrial complex
• Urban Development Committee - 58.7%
• Ministry of Environment - 34.3%
• Foreign Intelligence Service - 32.4%
• Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure - 22.8%
• Ministry of Economy - 22.3%
• Ministry of Higher Education and Science - 20.9%.

We can see that a significant number of these areas haven’t even achieved half of what they were supposed to do. The Luys report highlights important programs:

• The Ministry of High-Tech Industry’s “Development Program for the Military-Industrial Complex” has been implemented only 4.7%.
• The Ministry of High-Tech Industry’s “Digital Transformation” program is implemented only 7.4%;
• The Ministry of Economy’s “Agricultural Modernization Program” is implemented only 12.6%.

One odd aspect of this underperformance is that the government has not been spending at the level that it thought it would, so it has a lot of cash lying around, sitting in banks and earning some interest. So now all that money looks like an over-fulfillment of revenues in the state budget, or maybe a lower budget deficit. Exactly the opposite of what the government predicted would happen.

Despite all of these issues, the economy seems to be on the rebound. If we start including July numbers, we see that

• The industrial production slow down goes from 12.1 to 9.8%
• Electricity generation is up 2.1% (a good indicator of economic activity)
• Construction up 20%
• Services up 10.6%
• CPI has ticked up but still is a reasonable 3.2%, PPI is 2.5%
• Foreign trade is still down 41%: Exports down 48%, imports down 36%

Wrap-up

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