Varuzhan Geghamyan on Syria, Armenia, and Turkey-Iran-Russia Tensions | Ep 396 - Dec 16, 2024 [EP396]

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Guest:

• Prof. Varuzhan Geghamyan

Topics:

• Syria and the Middle East
• The South Caucasus
• Turkey, Iran, Russia

Episode 396 | Recorded: December 13, 2024

Show Notes

1. Syria and the Middle East

• Syria’s Post-Conflict Path: Insights into shifting power structures and international negotiations shaping Syria’s trajectory.
• Turkey’s Expanding Role: From Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib to the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), how Ankara asserts its influence.
• Proxy Wars in Action: Examining the clash between U.S.-backed Kurdish forces and Turkey-supported factions, and its impact on regional stability.
• Strategic Realignments: How Turkey’s involvement affects its relationships with Russia and Iran, signaling broader regional shifts.

2. The South Caucasus

• Syria’s Ripple Effects: How developments in the Middle East intersect with Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.
• Turkey’s Pan-Turanic Ambitions: Regional ramifications of Ankara’s goals, alongside Azerbaijan’s aggressive approach in negotiations.
• Iran’s Strategic Calculations: Evaluating Tehran’s “red lines” in Armenia and its stance on the so-called “Zangezur corridor.”
• Security and Diplomacy: Assessing how Middle Eastern conflicts influence Armenia’s regional standing.

3. Turkey, Russia, Iran

• Tensions in Focus: How divergent interests over Syria strain Turkey, Russia, and Iran’s cooperation.
• The 3+3 Platform: Evaluating the survival of this initiative amid growing discord.
• Turkey’s Leverage: Moscow’s vulnerabilities in Syria and Ukraine provide Ankara with new bargaining power.
• Implications for Stability: Broader lessons for peace and conflict resolution across these intertwined regions.

Key Questions Discussed

• What does the current balance of power in the Middle East reveal about shifting alliances?
• Can Kurdish groups maintain U.S. support amid changing priorities?
• How do the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and Syria’s developments interconnect?
• What strategies will Russia adopt in response to challenges in Ukraine and the Middle East?
• Will Turkey-Iran-Russia tensions undermine broader cooperation?

Timestamps

• 00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview
• 03:00 Syria’s Post-War Landscape: Challenges and Opportunities
• 15:30 Proxy Wars and Kurdish Autonomy: A Geopolitical Tug-of-War
• 28:00 The South Caucasus and Its Strategic Significance
• 40:00 Regional Power Dynamics: The Turkey-Iran-Russia Nexus
• 50:00 Key Takeaways and Reflections
• 55:00 Closing Remarks and Future Outlook

Wrap-up

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