Episode 376 | Recorded: October 20, 2024
After Moscow and Tehran, this year it was Istanbul’s turn to hold the third meeting of the so-called “3+3” platform, which took place this past week. During the summit, Mirzoyan met with Bayramov, as part of the current bilateral format of meetings.
We’re not aware of any results, at least none were reported, but the “Big 3”, Russia, Turkey and Iran proposed to Armenia and Azerbaijan to move their “peace process” negotiations to the 3+3, in order to achieve a regional solution. At this time neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan have responded to the offer.
We’re not sure what else was discussed, but the Armenia-Azerbaijan process seems to have been the most dominant topic for this year’s 3+3 summit.
Questions:
This past week Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian MFA, stated that there was, and still is an open opportunity for Artsakh’s Armenians to repatriate to their homes. She went on to praise Azerbaijan’s “constructive approach” to allow Armenians to move back to their homes.
Needless to say, absolutely nobody expects Artsakh Armenians to move their families back into killing fields, and risk genocide. Not the Russians, not the Azeris, not the Armenians, or Artsakhtsis, nor anyone in the west.
Questions:
Moldova was holding parliamentary elections yesterday, October 20, 2024. Georgia will hold them over this coming weekend, on October 26.
Questions:
The presidents of Iran and Russia met in Turkmenistan 10 days ago. It appears to have been scheduled as a quick touch base ahead of the BRICS summit in Kazan where it is anticipated that a new strategic partnership agreement may be signed. Putin said: “our assessments of current events in the world are often very close”.
This is happening in the backdrop of a major potential regional escalation. We know that currently Iran is bracing for a “lethal” and “surprising” attack promised by Israel. Depending on how big the attack is, there are predictions of a major regional war looming. Which makes the dynamics of the Russia-Iran relations all the more interesting.
On the ground, in the Caucasus, it seems that Russia and Iran have publicly disagreed at least on one aspect, which is the communications between Azerbaijan and Nakhijevan via Armenia, the infamous point #9 of the November 9-10 statement.
Questions:
After significant blows to Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, the pager attacks, the Haniyeh assassination in Tehran, etc. Israel has been bombing South Lebanon and Beirut. Some analysts say that the assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders have left Iran weakened and exposed, and Israel has basically dared them into a direct confrontation.
Questions:
Azerbaijan provides Israel with 40% of its oil. Despite the ongoing war, Israel continues to heavily arm Azerbaijan. So this is a symbiotic relationship between two rabidly aggressive states.
Questions:
This week the 16th annual BRICS summit is due to take place in Kazan, Russia. (Starts tomorrow.) There are some new membership applications, among them Azerbaijan’s. Armenia will attend as an observer; Pashinyan and Putin are expected to meet on the sidelines of the summit.
BRICS is not a military alliance, it’s more of a loosely coupled grouping of countries that are concerned about the economic hegemony of the west, the dollar, the weaponization of sanctions, etc.
Questions:
That’s our Week in Review, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions under our Youtube videos, and you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms. Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.
Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.
Dr. Sergei Melkonian is an Academic Director at the Armenian Research Foundation. He served as assistant to President of Armenia, Armen Sarkissian, on Russia and Middle East politics. Sergei is currently a Research Fellow at APRI Armenia and the Institute of Oriental Studies, and also Assistant Professor at Yerevan State University and the Russian-Armenian University. He is a co-founder of the Armenian Project NGO.
Hovik Manucharyan is an information security engineer who moved from Seattle to Armenia in 2022. He co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020 and has been a contributor to Groong News since the late 1990s.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by Hovik Manucharyan on the ANN/Groong podcast are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of his employer or any other organization.
Asbed is founder of the Armenian News Network Groong and co-founder of the ANN/Groong podcast.