Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hello everyone and welcome to Groong’s Week in Review for November 1, 2026. We have a lot of topics to talk about. Hovik, how are you?
Hovik Manucharyan: Doing fine and dandy given the regional situation and that was all obviously yeah I
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, yeah, definitely.
Hovik Manucharyan: mean it’s all relative yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: A lot to talk about, but I just want to remind our listeners that we are always thankful for your support
Asbed Bedrossian: and your engagement on our channels. But don’t forget that we also appreciate your financial support. So please go to podcasts.groong.org and participate. Give once, twice, three times, ten times.
But even better than that, we prefer if you become a sustaining member of Groong, because we do have certain things planned. So for example, I’m hoping that in the coming month or so, I’ll be able to announce some dates about how our news feed, which is actually extensively used, it’s groong.org slash news. That’s going to change. It’s a website currently that I set up in 1997.
But Hovik has spearheaded a lot of development to make that thing a modern and much more extensive coverage of Armenian news . And that development has been fully supported through your donations. So we hope that you can continue your donations on that. Anyway, Hovik, let’s hit our topics. with all the constant war rhetoric coming from Washington and Tel Aviv, many governments are now preparing, of course, for the next potential round of hostilities against Iran.
The Northern Front is also a concern for me, and we’re going to talk a little bit about that. And you would think that Armenia is, of course, readying for a renewed war on its borders, right?
Hovik Manucharyan: Haha.
Asbed Bedrossian: that’s
Hovik Manucharyan: Funny.
Asbed Bedrossian: right that’s right it’s a it’s a real laugh it’s a real laugh no Pashinyan’s government has been busy for the last 12 days with COP17 the biodiversity conference and Hovik i’ve already heard that they’re preparing for the next conference that’s going to i forgot what it is but probably in the coming month it’s one international conference after international conference to keep everybody’s focus somewhere else than priorities one two and three in this country meanwhile Pashinyan himself has endorsed his party’s violence in the parliament into church affairs and other random things instead of the top priorities what do you want to talk about today
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, there are a lot of things to cover. So let’s just begin with the war clouds that have been gathering or have never even dissipated over Iran and our region. It seems like Iran and the United States are both negotiating at the same time while preparing for new fighting. MS NOW, for instance, had a report citing anonymous Arab officials who essentially are predicting a possible U.S. strike against Iran after November 3 elections.
So we’re recording this depending on where you are in the world.
Asbed Bedrossian: I’m in November 1 and you are in November 2.
Hovik Manucharyan: So yeah, you’re still in November 1.
Asbed Bedrossian: Barely.
Hovik Manucharyan: the elections are in a few days. By the way, we had an interesting, or I would say important episode about the Armenian community’s involvement in the U .S. elections and the priorities for the Armenian communities. If you’re an Armenian voter in the U.S., feel free to check out episode 598 with Aram Suren Hamparian. But going back to this dystopian world where, you know, that there’s definitely going to be a war.
At the same time, there is no clear formula of how this war would end because this war has been attempted times already. And of course, as Asbed said, back in Armenia, it’s all PR, propaganda, and preparations for anything. The government is endorsing violence against the opposition and the church. Of course, they’re trying to take over the church and the international community is busy or couldn’t care less about what’s going on.
So we’ll come to Armenia later, but let’s talk a little bit more about Iran and what it could mean for the wider region. so the threats against Iran are obvious I mean the Trump regime has used very apocalyptic terminology in terms of potentially taking action against Iran but there are some signs that other members of the Trump government have been more conciliatory and against a heavy handed military response There have been provocations against Iran over the last few weeks. I think several sites within Iran were attacked over the last few weeks by Israel, and Iran has so far shown restraint in terms of responding to that.
But it has also warned that, you know, its response would have no geographic limit. You know, I think that was a warning sign to Europe if Europeans support the United States in this coming feared attack against Iran. And add to all of this.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hovik, do you believe that’s going to be an effective strategy? I mean, they did talk. So the Americans started talking about the MOAB, the mother of all bombs, and the Iranians started talking about the father of all missiles, essentially.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: But if they start striking European countries, is that not going to draw all of NATO into this conflict? Right now, it’s theoretically not NATO. It’s mostly the US, but…
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, the U.S. is effectively all of NATO. It contains NATO’s most advanced weaponry. So if the U.S. and Israel can’t do anything, I don’t know what NATO can add. not a military expert, but I don’t see what an Article 4 declaration in NATO would give this time around that it hasn’t before. all of this complexity, to Also, there’s this, you know, Saudi-Yemeni fight that’s going on.
Hovik Manucharyan: And the Yemenis have, the Houthis have effectively, been targeting Saudi Arabia’s excess oil capacity, attacking the east-west pipeline, attacking port cities on the Red Sea. So that is huge. the success that they’ve been having is remarkable. So this is where the, I think, complexities and the unknowns essentially multiply because now Saudi Arabia is a member of this Mecca pact between Pakistan, Turkey, and, you know, itself. At the same time, there are reports that the Houthis or the Ansarallah are getting support from the UAE,
Asbed Bedrossian: Mmh.
Hovik Manucharyan: which is not thrilled about Saudi Arabia’s dominance in the region. There was this interesting Drop Site report on it, and I don’t know how, if that report is true, then it poses a challenge to idea that the US wants to all of the Middle East is united against Iran. And even though UAE has been on the receiving end of Iranian attacks also, about that? Do you think that into making?
Asbed Bedrossian: by that complication when you mentioned the Mecca agreement, you know, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, and the UAE is actually theoretically hitting targets in Saudi Arabia, but they had to issue press releases and retractions that they were actually hitting targets in northern Yemen and not in Saudi Arabia.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: they do against Saudi Arabia could theoretically start something with Pakistan,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: right? For example, if they have like the Islamic NATO concept of Article 5. But to me, this whole thing just basically tells me how fractured the Arab states are, you know, with their feudal tribal sheikhdoms. The UAE interests are with southern Yemen, and Saudi Arabia is backing northern Yemen, And everybody’s pulling in their direction and their interests.
And I just don’t see how this hoped for Western coalition against Iran is going to come together when they all have all these interests that are pulling in different directions.
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, I think, yeah, and I think part of that is because Iran has shown that no one is safe if they attack Iran. So the last two attempts at war against Iran and these, you know, attacks against Saudi Arabia have led everyone to recalculate their security. Where previously, I think the United States could guarantee that if they’re on the U .S. side, then they get some protections. I mean, I think that Emiratis are the writing on the wall that actually no one is safe.
So they are trying to figure out their security, solving their security problems on their own. And they see Saudi Arabia as a dominant potential enemy. So, you know, they’re trying to figure out how to counteract Saudi Arabia.
Asbed Bedrossian: But can I add one thing, Hovik? I think what you’re saying, though, is also one reason why Iran is very circumspect in hitting these guys. They can’t just go completely without restraint and hit everybody because it could push all of these emirates more towards Israel. And suddenly, you know, the Abraham Accords expand because they fear Iran, whatever.
So Iran has, it can go this far. It has a range of actions that it can take, not less, not more. And that’s a very fine line to draw for them.
Asbed Bedrossian: Let’s talk a little bit more about the Northern Front. Of course, all these developments are very important. We’re talking about the Iran War . There’s the West, that’s the U.S. and Israel, who are trying to surround Iran from all sides.
And one of those sides is, of course, the Northern Front. And I want to talk a little bit about the CNN report that actually came out back in June, which reported that Israel is operating elite secret military intelligence units right on the border of Iran inside Azerbaijan. In many places, it’s going to be on the territory of the Republic of Artsakh, actually, the occupied lands. And essentially, these units of Israel are preparing for electronic warfare, intelligence gathering, cross-border rescue, reconnaissance, and things like that.
So it’s total evidence of what Aliyev basically told us, that Israel-Azerbaijan relations are like an iceberg. The world only sees about 10% of it, and 90% of these relations are actually submerged. Well, we are seeing a little bit of that underwater element, that 90% of the mass.
Hovik Manucharyan: This is, yeah, this is completely serious and, you know, given some of the other things that have happened this week, not just this week, but over the last few years, including, I would say, TRIPP, are an indication that this, you know, Israeli-Azerbaijani partnership something that is not fake and it’s endorsed also at the highest levels by the United States. And that could be the only explanation to the chagrin of Turkey, actually.
So Turkey is trying to present itself as the dominant power in the region, but I think we have to explore the idea that maybe the United States wants to hedge its bets and not towards Azerbaijan as well and if Azerbaijan participates in its war against Iran, maybe it will get the spoils of victory but at the same time it will be left as a bastard on the field if they you know, if Iran attacks of course the United States is not going to
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, exactly.
Hovik Manucharyan: Azerbaijan.
Asbed Bedrossian: Azerbaijan has the same problem as Armenia does. The United States can’t get there except through Turkey.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: So Azerbaijan, whether it likes, whether it thinks, Aliyev thinks that he is a middle power or a middle small power or a middle big power, it doesn’t matter. It is what it is. And nobody can get to him Turkey were to stop that, right? So he has to play a very fine line himself.
In fact, they’ve denied everything from that CNN report. Aliyev has even sued CNN, but we know it’s just bluster. It’s nothing.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Nothing is going to come out of that. But we’ll provide a link to that article. Actually, CNN has retracted that and has removed it. But there is, I found a copy of that on the Kyiv Post.
So we’ll link to that one.
Hovik Manucharyan: So, yeah, just a reminder, folks, do not believe in any news until CNN retracts it. So, there you go.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s absolutely right.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes. Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Anyway, the point that I want to make here is that that report has actually damaged Aliyev’s plausible deniability claim that none of these things are really going on, because it’s now become essentially an open secret that Azerbaijan is an Israeli outpost on Iran’s northern border. And, you know, let me just give credit. I didn’t invent that concept that plausible deniability has been blown. I got that from Eldar Mamedov’s excellent analysis on the responsible statecraft, and we’ll put the link to that one.
But the point is that this northern front flare-up could cause Iran to retaliate
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: extensively and deeply inside Azeri territory, which could create, as Aliyev himself likes to say, a new regional status. Is Armenia ready to take advantage of a new regional status, Hovik?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, I mean, I think the other thing that might likely happen is Azerbaijan could also do a preemptive attack and take parts of Armenia because if this fighting is essentially guaranteed and if an Iranian attack is going to be guaranteed. So I think Armenia is in no position to take advantage of anything. The best we could hope for is Armenia to be prepared a potential preemptive attack by Azerbaijan, but we see no evidence of that. In fact, we see Armenian authorities lying on their back with their legs spread
Asbed Bedrossian: Ha ha.
Hovik Manucharyan: open. Excuse me for the metaphor, but that’s exactly what Pashinyan is doing.
Asbed Bedrossian: Come on, Hovik, this is a family show.
Hovik Manucharyan: they’re not uh yeah well um so
Asbed Bedrossian: Mothers and fathers and their children are listening as a family here.
Hovik Manucharyan: so so there’s this very interesting relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan that is currently tense we’ll talk more about that uh and of course Turkey and Azerbaijan have this Shusha Declaration. So if one of them is attacked, then the other is sort of, you know, obligated to defend it. So a potential flare-up in the South Caucasus , you know, what are your thoughts about it? You know, even can it be contained regionally?
Or do you think that this would,
Asbed Bedrossian: There.
Hovik Manucharyan: you know, then the chain reaction, you know, it involves Turkey, then it involves Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and so on and so forth.
Asbed Bedrossian: So that Shusha Declaration comment that you made is a very interesting topic. It pulls in a bunch of these latest tensions that we have between Azerbaijan on one side and Turkey and even Iran on the other side. And, you know, for just one comment that I want to make, and this is my take, just as Russia decided to teach Pashinyan a lesson by doing nothing to help him after the 44-day war , and we can talk more about that too if you want. could see a situation here where Turkey could find some excuse to stay inactive until Aliyev is fully damaged because Aliyev has been really pissing at Erdogan for
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: some time at this point. Again, the question for me, Hovik, is there are all these geopolitical winds that are swirling around Armenia. things change all the time, and you have to be ready for things changing. And Armenia is just not ready for it.
Hovik Manucharyan: Armenia is being led by an occupational regime,
Asbed Bedrossian: Now,
Hovik Manucharyan: Asbed. So we should be clear. And, you know, I mean, I think there’s, we can’t say it often enough. Armenia is directly controlled by an occupational regime led from Baku.
So, yes, unfortunately, and unfortunately, the Armenian opposition so far hasn’t been able to, you know, make inroads into removing Pashinyan from power, which is adding a good pivot for us to talk about the recent municipal elections
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, I was going to say basically that all these geopolitical winds make what’s
Hovik Manucharyan: that happened.
Asbed Bedrossian: going on inside Armenia extremely consequential.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: So let’s talk about some of those. You start.
Hovik Manucharyan: So last week we talked about the municipal elections that happened last Sunday. And just as we sort of predicted, essentially, you know, Pashinyan previously had set up the elections in such a way that either, you know, in all these towns where these elections were happening, either there was no legitimate challenger to Pashinyan because anyone who would dare to challenge Pashinyan would be immediately arrested. Or they formed an alliance with longstanding chiefs in that region or longstanding politicians who enjoy familial control of the region. So through the alliance, essentially, they won power in the municipal elections.
Asbed Bedrossian: I want to add something. They didn’t just win power. You know, in a democracy, you are struggling to get 60 or 65 percent of the vote or 70 percent if you’re wildly popular.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: But as I mentioned in our previous week in review, there was one case, it was early initially, there were 302 votes out of 304 that had gone to them. And now we have further reports, and there are some places where the Civil Contract Party has gotten 100% of the vote, which is absolutely ridiculous.
Hovik Manucharyan: Kim Jong Un is blushing right now. Kim Jong Un is blushing right now.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hovik, I just want to say, I’m laughing not because I think it’s funny. I’m laughing in sadness, maybe. It’s just terrible to have these things.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: And so we have one-party rule democracy that’s going on in Armenia.
Hovik Manucharyan: It’s not a democracy,
Asbed Bedrossian: And what is Pashinyan’s conclusion?
Hovik Manucharyan: Asbed. Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, well, I should have air-quoted that. What’s Pashinyan’s conclusion from all this?
Hovik Manucharyan: He says, well, you know, of course, the voters supported him overwhelmingly, but I think he says something like, you know, it gives me no pleasure that we won 100%,
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, and just as importantly, Hovik, he just, he went on his press conference and said that Armenia needs a statewide opposition. Like, they need to set up an opposition because there isn’t a viable opposition,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, he said…
Asbed Bedrossian: so people don’t have a choice because there’s no opposition. Well, frankly, if didn’t say that you’re going to crush them with a hammer, if you didn’t call them Russian spies all the time, you didn’t jail them,
Hovik Manucharyan: Or arrested them, yeah, jailed them.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, there would be an opposition that could compete.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, and frankly, I think that the importance of these municipal elections for the opposition and the Pashinyan regime are lopsided. For Pashinyan, it was very important to show that he’s in full control because these municipal elections will be a way to extend administrative resources when upcoming elections come. for the opposition, there is no upside. Because if the opposition wins in these communities, then the central government will just basically withhold all money, it will withhold all support, and it will start attacking and jailing the winners, the opposition winners.
So I think in terms of the risk versus reward, the equation is lopsided. And that’s why the opposition chose to only challenge Pashinyan in a number of communities. And even there, it wasn’t successful. So in Stepanavan, I think the Business Party, which is the pro-Pashinyan, I guess, alliance member, together they formed the Solidarity alliance.
So in Stepanavan, I think the Business Party, which is the pro-Pashinyan, alliance but we know they’re essentially pro-Pashinyan. Meanwhile in Goris and Gavar they officially participated in the elections through this alliance between Civil Contract and the Business Party called solidarity or something. But in any case, I guess either Pashinyan or pro-Pashinyan alliances or parties fully so-called won these elections, which were not free and not fair, in my opinion. But I think it’s an important aspect to remember the promises of the Pashinyan regime when they came to power in 2018.
One was about protecting Artsakh. They said Artsakh is Armenia and that’s it. Artsakh is gone. The other promise by Pashinyan was We’re going to recover all the money stolen by the formers By many accounts, the Pashinyan regime is more kleptocratic than the formers And none of the former so -called accused have been put to justice yet I mean, yes, there are some criminal cases Especially if those formers get involved in politics But no verdict yet And the last promise by Pashinyan in 2018 when he accomplished his coup was about free and fair elections.
And we’re now seeing the fruits of those promises, the so-called free and fair elections. So I call this the Pashinyan trifecta. But more seriously, I think Movses Khorenatsi had a famous lament. which is, I mourn for you, land of the Armenians, I mourn for you.
Hovik Manucharyan: I think that is more fortunate.
Asbed Bedrossian: But now that he’s got the parliament that he fought for,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: how’s it going in the parliament?
Hovik Manucharyan: Ah, the key word is fighting for it, right?
Asbed Bedrossian: Thank you.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, so the parliament this week was a mess, a humiliation, essentially. On October 28th, we saw the Civil Contract regime railroad through their ratification of the TRIPP agreement, an agreement that only one side, I guess, has to ratify and treat as an international agreement because the U.S. is not doing it.
Asbed Bedrossian: Though the parliament in the US doesn’t even know about it a whole lot.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, exactly. And the following day, there was a huge brawl. I think maybe this was the biggest brawl in the Armenian parliament, at least, in the last 30 years. And, you know, it was deliberately escalated, I would say, by the Civil Contract regime.
And we can talk about why, but for a good 30 minutes, the fighting continued. beating people, throwing chairs, throwing punches besides chairs. And the head of the parliament just allowed it to continue without calling in the security forces. In fact, he said, I’m not going to call the security. I’m just going to enjoy this fighting.
Meanwhile, all of the substantive concerns about TRIPP, about all the concessions that Armenia is giving to Azerbaijan evaporated the following day. So, That’s a clue as to why this was, I think, instigated in the first place. Did you follow these activities in the parliament? What are your thoughts, Asbed?
Asbed Bedrossian: So, Hovik, I didn’t bother watching 30 minutes of video about this incident. I just feel, you know, the first few minutes, I feel like it was 100% instigated. What was his name? Taron Chakhoyan.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: He goes and talks about Narek Karapetyan’s cousin still owing him some money or whatever. It’s like, why are you bringing this garbage and personal stuff to the podium in the National Assembly? If you have an issue, just take it up with Narek Karapetyan, or actually that guy, whoever, and deal with it. And so he just brought it on and was trolling Karapetyan.
Unfortunately, I think Karapetyan just took the bait.
Hovik Manucharyan: But Karapetyan, no, Karapetyan didn’t respond.
Asbed Bedrossian: And then from there on, it just went on.
Hovik Manucharyan: So Karapetyan didn’t respond.
Asbed Bedrossian: I mean to say Strong Armenia.
Hovik Manucharyan: It was one of the Strong Armenia members responded and Chakhoyan approached him in a very aggressive manner.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: So it was a mutual, I think, and the, you know, it’s important to realize like whenever, I mean, just a few days before, right, it’s important to realize like whenever, I mean, just a few days before, right, and because Ruben Rubinyan didn’t feel that Ghazaryan’s statement was on the topic he called security to stop Edgar Ghazaryan
Asbed Bedrossian: Immediately, in the middle.
Hovik Manucharyan: immediately in the middle of his speech two minute speech at the one-minute mark to stop Edgar Ghazaryan from talking one more minute and in this case Ruben Rubinyan waited 30 minutes for this fighting to escalate before he calls. So it’s entirely the responsibility of the Civil Contract regime, even if we say it’s not deliberately escalating.
Asbed Bedrossian: Do you think it was pre-planned?
Hovik Manucharyan: I think it was pre-planned because Taron Chakhoyan is, Nikol Pashinyan is basically a master of propaganda. He owns, he knows how to create propaganda, how to create public sentiment, and I think this was deliberately planned.
I think there was a wider reason why it was planned I think that among this wider discussion about new elections and getting rid of this opposition I think it was an attempt by Civil Contract to show that the Armenian opposition is just as bad as they are they’re hoodlums if Civil Contract members are hoodlums and criminals and so is the opposition because they are engaged in fighting. don’t know how much that argument can be, was bought by the, you know, regular, like, people who would maybe be in the middle of the not opposition supporters, but also not Civil Contract supporters. But I think that was the intention.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, the other intention, in my opinion, was to obfuscate a number of more significant topics that are going on, because they can keep the population busy with this stuff on Armenian TV, on Armenian radio, etc., etc. So let’s talk about the TRIPP and the church and the POWs and things like that that
Asbed Bedrossian: are just not getting talked about. But it is important that we bring to the listener what was actually ratified, because the TRIPP ratification did happen, what date was that, on October 28th or 27th?
Hovik Manucharyan: 28th, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, 28th, that’s right, the day after October 27th. And I want to, at a high level, I think we’ll put a lot of stuff in the show notes, but I want to just mention a few things. First of all, they authorized the creation of a TRIPP Development Company. And we’ll call that the TDC because it’ll come up constantly.
And this is going to be a state-owned entity. We’ve talked about this. It’s going to be 74% owned by the U.S. and 26% owned by Armenia. It’s going to be a 49-year exclusive concession.
So this grants basically the TDC exclusive rights to use, build, and develop land within designated TRIPP implementation areas. And they’re calling these things special purpose vehicles. And that means basically companies that are going to take care of the railway part of the concession, the fiber optic part of the concession, the road part, the motorway part, the highway part of the concession, et cetera, et cetera. And then there’s this deal about a management model for the border, and they’re calling it front office, back office.
But that is just, I hate that buzzy term, because it’s just basically Pashinyan trying to concede to Aliyev when Aliyev said he wants to go through Armenia never seeing an Armenian, basically. And Pashinyan has invented this front office, back office thing as if, you know, it’s a thing. Basically setting up a customer-facing border processing model, which is supposedly low friction and it’s going to be taken care of by a company that’s going to be set up by the TDC. of course, you know, there’s the back office thing, which in reality, it’s all about the preservation of Armenian sovereignty.
The framework explicitly states that infrastructure is going to remain under Armenian sovereignty. Armenia retains legislative, regulatory or judicial authority and tax and stuff
Hovik Manucharyan: But that’s just bullshit, right, Asbed? I mean, preservation of sovereignty?
Asbed Bedrossian: like that. And they’re calling this the back office. I think it’s important to know
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, I mean, how can… yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: what this front office, back office is because this is all like terminology that
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. But it’s not about preservation of Armenian sovereignty.
Asbed Bedrossian: they’re throwing at us.
Hovik Manucharyan: It’s about obfuscation of the ceding of
Asbed Bedrossian: But that’s how it’s being presented to us.
Hovik Manucharyan: sovereignty. Yeah. Yes. I agree.
So I think it’s important to highlight that.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah. So we’ll put some of these things in the show notes because I can’t speak all these things very clearly sometimes. But then there are also incentives. So they exempt the TDC from paying taxes on any kind of a capital gain, any kind of a dividend.
And for example, if the TDC sets up some kind of a special purpose vehicle to take care of the fiber optics, and they make some capital gains from it, from selling, let’s say, the next 10 years of concession to somebody, tax-free. Armenia doesn’t see any benefit from that. So, if you want to ask, What is Armenia really getting out of this?
Hovik Manucharyan: first of all, I would say there are still a lot of unknowns, right? When the opposition asked the government or the regime currently in power in Armenia, the de facto government, you know, even things like, okay, where are, we know, like, okay, where the railroad is going to go through, where are the automobiles roads are going to go through?
I think it was Ararat Mirzoyan who said that he has no idea, but that didn’t stop them from rubber stamping this proposal without having an idea and I think that we have a valid reason now to speculate that essentially all of Armenia’s south is going to be these special regime roads and everywhere where these cars, and that road, for instance right after the 2020 war, Azerbaijan started building roads inside of Artsakh, the occupied territories that it held at the time, that went all the way to the Hakari Bridge.
And Edgar Ghazaryan believes that actually one of the roads that will go through Armenia will connect the Hakari Bridge to Nakhichevan . And Pashinyan has talked about multiple roads. So it’s not like people often envision TRIPP to be a narrow strip of land that is going to be like this special regime. I think there is a reason to believe that it will be multiple intersecting strips of land and essentially the Palestinianization of or the Gaza-ification of Armenia’s south and Armenia in general
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, so essentially like, you know, the West Bank, where
Hovik Manucharyan: where or Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: settlers are starting to creep in and making it an unviable territory to claim any kind of sovereignty or anything like that.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. There’s no answer. Like, as an Armenian, what do you do? Like, if you’re in the, if you’re in Syunik, can you just hike and maybe, like, you know, cross one of these roads?
If you can’t, then that means these are, like, you have no sovereignty. And none of the questions about access to Iran have been answered, but that didn’t stop the Armenian government from signing.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, this is exactly why both Iran and Russia are alarmed by these things. This whole, you know, I’m sorry to say, bullshit about front office and back office terminology that they’re throwing just to make it seem like there’s real forethought and some serious thinking going on. There isn’t. have a real problem that is threatening our sovereignty. And from Yerevan’s perspective, no formal calculations or economic feasibility studies have been presented, demonstrating that Armenia is expected to really have some kind of a windfall profit, some kind of financial returns for this.
Hovik Manucharyan: Asbed, with all due respect, I think that any talk about economic profits is a red herring. And even if we had received billions of dollars in economic profits every year, even if, let’s say, we doubled the tax rate in TRIPP, this is a clear giveaway of Armenia’s sovereignty. I think we should be clear to our listeners and to our viewers that we are now witnessing this and we’re chronicling the giveaway of Armenia’s sovereignty in Syunik to Azerbaijan. But I think that this, you know, managed by the United States and Israel.
Asbed Bedrossian: Managed by the United States.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes. And like, you know, Witkoff and Jared Kushner and so forth. unfortunate that this is what we have to hope for, but I think the only thing that would change the situation is a geopolitical conflict, Iran finally setting its foot down, and Russia has talked about the Treaty of Turkmenchay, for instance, and we hope that will become what the Treaty of Sèvres became one day. And that happened in World War I when within a few years it became obsolete. So in the meantime, we’re doing our best to inform our viewers and listeners about what’s going on.
So one thing beyond question, Asbed, as we said, is that TRIPP is a project that’s entirely dominated by primarily the interests of Baku and Ankara. and of course Israel. Even the U.S. participation, I think, is sugarcoating all of this. so it’s amazing how the interests of Israel Turkey and Baku so far have been able to be unified and presented in this TRIPP but
Hovik Manucharyan: also we’re seeing some signs that not everything is as rosy as they painted, right? We have seen some conflicts between Baku and Ankara over the previous few weeks.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: Why don’t you tell us about that?
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, so we’re talking about this recent dispute over Baku’s school dress code regulations, and they have triggered kind of a surprising high friction diplomatic spat between Erdogan’s administration and Aliyev’s government. But if you look beyond the immediate religious rights rhetoric coming out of Ankara and Baku’s pushback against external interference, the headscarf issue is actually widely seen as a tactical proxy deeper geopolitical friction between Ankara and Baku.
We’re talking about Baku’s ties with Israel that have really started rattling some of the opposition in Turkey. from their Islamist circles, that they’re very unhappy with this new rule, this headscarf rule, the hijab rule that Aliyev enacted. And then also, ever since the war, the 44-day war, Baku has started feeling very self-confident that they really don’t need Turkey that much. They really just need Israel. So they feel like they’re more independent and they’re more assertive in their foreign policy.
And when this issue came to a head about a week ago, think it was one of the members of the Turkey-Azerbaijan friendship parliamentary group or somebody from Azerbaijan who said, hey, we are one nation, two states, but that means two sovereign nations. And it doesn’t mean that Azerbaijan is subordinate to Turkey or anything like that. So there has been a real fallout between the two. Now, I’m not going to take that extremely seriously.
It’s not going to be a complete realignment. But this is a moment where we are seeing the two allies spar over something. And interestingly enough, in this sparring, Turkey and Iran are more aligned than Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, I mean, over the, I think the Islamic dress code, yes, but I think we shouldn’t put too much weight on that. But I think what the real cracks are showing is that, I mean, and just for the record, folks, both Israel and Turkey had a big impact in how the war in Artsakh went and the subsequent ethnic cleansing of Artsakh. Aliyev.
Asbed Bedrossian: Look, a lot of weaponry was provided by Israel, but
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah And
Asbed Bedrossian: the war was essentially managed by the Turkish.
Hovik Manucharyan: Turkish generals, especially the drone war,
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, that’s right. Turkey essentially managed the war.
Hovik Manucharyan: and Turkey as a NATO member has access to NATO intelligence, and Turkey provided a lot of ISR to Azerbaijan as well.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s right.
Hovik Manucharyan: So yes, Turkey has a right to say that unfortunately they had a huge role. But it’s interesting that Azerbaijan is now trying to push Turkey aside. And what was even more amazing is that Erdogan basically sacked one of his advisors for criticizing Azerbaijan. Because this week, I think on October 30th, there was this Turkic states meeting in Turkey.
And Aliyev basically withdrew his participation. because of this spat. And even Erdogan’s sacking of his advisor did not bring Aliyev back to Turkey. Aliyev sent his foreign minister to Turkey to attend this conference. So it was a very visible, I think, slap in the face.
And to me, this shows at least what Aliyev is able to get away with. to slap Erdogan in the face. He’s able to publicly talk shit about Erdogan in Turkey, including through media. And this invisible pyramid, this invisible iceberg, which is Israel, which in fact is also in the United States, is allowing Aliyev to talk like that to Turkey. And I think that’s one more piece of evidence.
Asbed Bedrossian: I’m a little more reserved about this, what you just said, because I think that Erdogan on the whole issue and everything, he’s taken a real political hit. A lot of his opposition has gotten a huge amount of fuel out of this topic, right? They have criticized Erdogan for bowing before Aliyev, sacrificing Islamic values. It’s become a mess for him politically.
He’s taking a hit, and there will be a price to pay for Aliyev for this. Erdogan’s not going to let go of this.
Hovik Manucharyan: But the fact that even he can take a hit, the fact that Aliyev is able to get so much out of it so far proves my point, which is I think that the U.S. is, here’s what I think. I think this Organization of Turkic States, the U.S., you know, everyone thinks that Turkey is one of the leading powers. And Turkey is. But I think what the U.S. and Israel are trying to do is realign some of the power balance and give Azerbaijan more power within the Organization of Turkic States.
I mean, maybe not dominant power, but I think Aliyev likes to see himself as a huge contributor to this organization. and I think the US would be okay with that. I think the Russians would be okay with the organization of Turkic states not being entirely dominated by Turkey but with Azerbaijan having more of a say so. And it’s unfortunate for Armenia. It again brings us back to this hardcore geopolitics and Realpolitik.
I think Iran would also be okay with the organization of Turkic states not being dominated by Ankara. what was demonstrated right now. And this you think that Aliyev is a junior partner that must abide by any dictate by Ankara, this was an example, primary example, of the fact that Aliyev actually has some clout.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, Aliyev does have a little bit of autonomy,
Hovik Manucharyan: I don’t know. That’s what I think.
Asbed Bedrossian: but I don’t ascribe him as much credit as you. I think Erdogan has been super nice, I think that there will be a price to pay. While Aliyev was not there at the Organization of Turkic States, I think Erdogan invited Russia to become a member of the OTS, didn’t he?
Hovik Manucharyan: been following that, so yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: that is an interesting idea. I mean, there are more Turkish ethnics in Russia than probably there are in Azerbaijan. For that matter, actually, there are more Turkish ethnic people in Iran than Azerbaijan.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, yeah, it’d be interesting to see how that pans out. I think that some circles in Russia who want to flirt with, you know, this Turkey partnership with Turkey and everything would be elated to do that. But I don’t think that civilizationally that would be what, you know, that is a dominant trend in Russia. But I think that Russia would probably maybe take an observer status. this all speaks about, like, removing the dominance of Turkey in the region.
So I think, unfortunately, Armenians are not doing enough to monitor the geopolitical developments within this Organization of Turkic States.
Asbed Bedrossian: And they’re not doing anything to monitor a lot of things.
Hovik Manucharyan: And it is, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Among them are Armenian POWs. What about that?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: So the ANC International, you know, So the ANC International, you know, arm, essentially the international part of that organization, released a report, a dossier of 20 Armenians held in Azerbaijan by the regime in Baku. it’s a damning report talking about all the fake sentences that were meted out on all these mostly heroes, I would say mostly Armenians who simply wanted to live on their own land. Some got like 15 years others got life imprisonment. The trials were largely closed. Armenian hostages couldn’t even have legal representation.
So it was completely one-sided, and I think that the report was
Asbed Bedrossian: They were not one-sided.
Hovik Manucharyan: well-written.
Asbed Bedrossian: They were sham trials.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, exactly.
Asbed Bedrossian: They were just a PR stunt for Aliyev.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. And this, I guess, raises the question what could Armenia do about this? Because we’ve seen evidence that Trump had offered to intervene on behalf of these prisoners and Pashinyan responded negatively to that. We’ve seen Armenia withdraw its legal requests internationally.
And here we have Ararat Mirzoyan saying something to the opposite of that. What did he say?
Asbed Bedrossian: He said, I think he said basically that all mediation through third-party countries
Hovik Manucharyan: He said that… Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: had failed, that apparently Azerbaijan basically says that they’re not going to talk that issue with, let’s pick a country, let’s say the Netherlands or whoever, that they are going to deal bilaterally with Armenia. So basically excluding all third parties from the conversation.
Hovik Manucharyan: I mean, I guess if failure means that Pashinyan telling Trump not to intervene, I guess that would be, you know, third-party mediation failure, right?
Asbed Bedrossian: I think that if you tell Trump to go away,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: you’re going to have a lot bigger problems on your hands. But I don’t know if your question was rhetorical because when you said, what can Armenia do about this?
Hovik Manucharyan: No, I mean, obviously, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Because we’ve answered this question time and time again on our shows. Armenia will not do anything about this as long as this Pashinyan government is in place because they are complicit in the issue. They want those guys imprisoned in Baku because just imagine Ruben Vardanyan riding on a horse in Yerevan. on a horse in Yerevan. Who has a big problem?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. It’s ridiculous. I mean, it’s the…
Asbed Bedrossian: My mouth is getting tired of talking about this. It’s not like Armenia can’t do anything.
Hovik Manucharyan: The Pashinyan, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: All they have to do is basically say, you know what, I’m not going to sign anything anymore. You’re not going to cross Armenia to go to Nakhichevan. No, I’m not going to do this.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, I mean, so, Armenia
Asbed Bedrossian: Until you let those guys go. The initial agreement was all prisoners get exchanged.
Hovik Manucharyan: ratified TRIPP. Yeah. I mean, you could have withheld ratification of TRIPP
Asbed Bedrossian: Everything.
Hovik Manucharyan: for the prisoners.
Asbed Bedrossian: Everything.
Hovik Manucharyan: You could have withheld ratification of TRIPP to get more clarity on what TRIPP actually means and what Azerbaijan’s intentions and interpretations of that are. You could have stopped the ratification of a TRIPP in order to actually have a final peace deal. At the worst, if that’s a concession of Armenian sovereignty, then at least you could have tied it to the return of prisoners, to the signing of the so-called peace deal. None of that has been done, and Armenia continues to concede.
And the regime is pretending.
Asbed Bedrossian: And Mirzoyan has explicitly said that Armenia, by policy, has separated these issues from signing the peace treaty. So signing a peace treaty is separate from POWs, is separate from TRIPP. None of them are hanging on to each other. Well, all you have to do is say, we’re not doing TRIPP, you’re not getting TRIPP, the benefits of TRIPP, until you let these guys go.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: But instead of doing that, we have 63 Civil Contract numbskulls in parliament who rubber stamp an agreement about which they don’t even have all the information. We have an agreement that says it’s highly likely that Armenia is going to make the following benefits. Instead of saying, these are the things that you are going to get out of it. And if you don’t, then you have a legal right.
No, nothing like that. They’re just rubber stamping stuff. This is not a government. Thank you.
Hovik Manucharyan: You know, folks, I just want to say something real quick before we transition to our next topic. You see how we talk about TRIPP. I think if you follow any Western-funded media, you will see them giving more credence to the Pashinyan regime’s words, words, even though this is absolutely baseless. So we feel that we are actually one of the few that is actually doing true, like, independent and balanced coverage, And if you support that, I would just like to make a call to continue supporting us financially, podcasts.groong.org/donate, because that allows us to do it.
Asbed Bedrossian: And it…
Hovik Manucharyan: And you All these Western-funded think tanks, all these Western-funded media, just shilling for Pashinyan and the Turkish-Azerbaijani-Israeli alliance supported by the US. And if you’re against that, then support us.
Asbed Bedrossian: I just want to add to that, Hovik, you always talk about those NGOs, and they are basically giving you a scripted line. If you listen to some of their so-called analysts, they’re giving you an absolutely scripted line all the way from the deep state in the United States or somebody.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: We’re not that. We are not that. And the reason why sometimes we get very animated and our own friends have said, don’t use certain words in the show. But every now and then it happens because as much as we try to engage our brains before we engage our mouths, sometimes it gets very emotional when we are talking about so much wrong being done
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: to Armenia. So anyway, we try to be very rational about these things and give you exactly what the facts are.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: So just to close off today, today’s topics, what’s going on with the church, Asbed? It seems like, you know, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, you know what’s going on. Civil Contract’s parliamentary commission on the Church held its first meeting on October 26, extending the government’s campaign against the Church. And, you know, they’re starting a parliamentary inquiry about the whole thing.
The Mother See and opposition factions have rejected these initiatives as unconstitutional. and we’ve seen some of I mean some of the court results are backing the fact that this is unconstitutional because there have been various cases that have slowly eventually made their way to court and they’ve been met with defeat and I just want to mention a couple of things recall that three judges recused themselves or they threw the case over the wall saying that it doesn’t belong in Vagharshapat, it needs to go to Yerevan and then goes to Yerevan no, no, no, that really does belong But it’s all these people, all these judges who are playing hot potato with this because they don’t want to do anything with something that is clearly unconstitutional.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah,
Asbed Bedrossian: So now Armenia’s justice ministry has initiated disciplinary proceedings against
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: that first judge in Vagharshapat who recused himself. His name was Hakob Manukyan.
Hovik Manucharyan: I predicted that. Do you remember? I said, you know, I think he recused himself because the lawyer representing the Mother See signed his lawyer’s license or certificate, which is basically the administration of Armenian Bar Association, or whatever, the equivalent of the Bar Association. So simply because the lawyer who represents the Catholicos was the head of the Bar Association and signed his certificate, which he does for all the jurists who get a degree in Armenia,
Asbed Bedrossian: Hmm.
Hovik Manucharyan: then that’s a reason to recuse himself. And I said, be on the lookout for disciplinary action because you’re not going to get it off so easily. And now that’s happening.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s right. And that’s basically what’s going on right now. They’re trying to get the Supreme Judicial Council to discipline this guy, possibly even evicting him. So new judge, his name is Serzh Rushanyan.
He’s resumed the case. this case actually is the case that was started by a former bishop, now defrocked bishop, Gevorg Saroyan. And, of course, what happened, Hovik, to that case against the Catholicos by Saroyan?
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, the judge, Edgar Hovhannisian, dismissed an appeal by Gevorg Saroyan. I mean, it’s very clear that all of these cases are based on very shoddy, they’re not even law.
Asbed Bedrossian: There’s
Hovik Manucharyan: So these judges have
Asbed Bedrossian: no case. There’s no case.
Hovik Manucharyan: they consider themselves valid lawyers, valid jurists, they have no other recourse. makeup stuff. people are serving jail time because of this. So even though these cases get dismissed, it is affecting the livelihood of people who worked in the church. I think the accountant was jailed for multiple months until the judge released her, for instance. and it’s affecting the activities of the Armenian church. So this is a blatant interference in the activities of the Armenian church.
But one example of that, one case study I would say, was the Armenian government is essentially using its power to protect elements within the Armenian church who are going against the Catholicos. decided to hold a service, an illegal service, decided to hold a service, an illegal service, a service that is not sanctioned by Etchmiadzin on Etchmiadzin property, on Etchmiadzin church property. and either the government would fail to stop this, to uphold, or even if let’s say the people from Etchmiadzin went and tried to say that, hey, this is our church, you’re not a legitimate clergy in our church and you’re performing a service, the state protects the illegitimate clergy from Etchmiadzin.
Asbed Bedrossian: Right.
Hovik Manucharyan: So they’re using their power, they’re putting their power
Asbed Bedrossian: They’re using the police to protect these illegitimate guys.
Hovik Manucharyan: yeah yeah I mean
Asbed Bedrossian: but you can see, Hovik, that these cases are basically a house of cards, right? They’re built by these frivolous charges that, let’s say, a bishop or a defrocked bishop or somebody has filed against the Catholicos. But as it goes to court, any judge, I was going to say any reasonable judge, will basically throw this out as a frivolous case. it was. So, as these cases are built on top of each other, I think the whole thing will crumble.
But in the meantime, they’re causing havoc in both the government, the rule of law, and the church.
Hovik Manucharyan: All right, Asbed, I think that I concur with your hopes that this house of cards will crumble sooner rather than later. And we express our full solidarity with the Armenian Holy Apostolic Church. And we hope that these events are temporary in nature.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah. Hovik, you’ve said this before on previous shows.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: These are externally driven situations.
Hovik Manucharyan: Exactly.
Asbed Bedrossian: They’re geopolitical. They’re not like there’s a real case against the church or anything. They’re geopolitically driven by the enemies of Armenia. Simple enough.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, so the only way it will go away is when the illegal regime in Armenia goes away.
Hovik Manucharyan: All right, folks, thank you for listening and watching to us. This was a very busy week. We hope you found these updates from us interesting. If you did, like, comment, share, subscribe.
Make sure that you at least subscribe so that you get notifications in the future.
Asbed Bedrossian: And don’t forget the financial element.
Hovik Manucharyan: And…
Hovik Manucharyan: podcasts.groong.org. Yeah,
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s right.
Hovik Manucharyan: just even at five bucks a month, it means a lot to us. So we appreciate everything that you can do. Thank you, folks. And until next week, this is Hovik Manucharyan.
Asbed Bedrossian: And I’m Asbed Bedrossian. We’ll talk to you next week.