Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hello, everyone. This is Groong’s Week in Review for October 18, 2026. Hi, Hovik. How are you doing?
Hovik Manucharyan: Doing good. Trying to survive under various different types of pressure from work to family. Yeah. And how are you?
Asbed Bedrossian: I’m doing fine. I took a long walk, but it’s very humid here, almost like a pre-rain and pre-possibly stormy kind of a situation. And, you know, my body feels all that humidity. But everything’s fine.
Hovik Manucharyan: I see your room has changed.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yes, I decided a background for this time. Why not?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, no worries.
Asbed Bedrossian: A little bit of change.
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s very roomy and it looks like it’s daytime outside.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: But you know, it’s not. If you know me and Hovik, you know what time we’re working.
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, I mean, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Okay, well, take us to the first topic, Hovik.
Hovik Manucharyan: One of the major topics in the Armenian news is this idea that Pashinyan has put forth that, hey, suddenly I have a solution to Armenia’s territorial issues. 29,743 is the magic number, baby. And you better not forget that.
Asbed Bedrossian: Mh, mh, mh.
Hovik Manucharyan: All the enclave issues, all of the territorial issues need to be solved around that number. He essentially wants contiguity of land. Of course, that could be interpreted multiple different ways. But when asked whether this is a new topic that is agreed upon Just for our listeners, Mher Grigoryan said that there is no such agreement and there have been and there have been
Asbed Bedrossian: Just for our listeners, Mher Grigoryan is the chair of the commission of the border delimitation and demarcation process with Azerbaijan.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. And any such exchange also would require a referendum. that was what foreign minister or de facto foreign minister Mirzoyan said. That was probably the top issue in terms of geopolitics in the Armenian media this week. He actually, Pashinyan, said that, yeah, after recent exchanges, but, you know, we’ve come to this conclusion, or we have reason to believe that this is a good, this is an agreeable position.
But what were those recent exchanges? the only exchange that they had was in Turkmenistan where they had, like, maybe they
Asbed Bedrossian: Hovik, let me correct that it was in Kyrgyzstan, it was in Bishkek.
Hovik Manucharyan: passed each other in the lobby, you know. Adieu.
Asbed Bedrossian: We don’t want to fire the chief of protocol here in Groong.
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, if Pashinyan’s chief of protocol still is working, because I think in one of his speeches during COP17, I think he also used the word Kyrgyzstan.
Asbed Bedrossian: Actually, it was a state visit by the president of Kyrgyzstan,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: Japarov, and he’s blindly reading his papers, and he says that he’s the president of Kyrgyzstan. Of course, that was either a typo or a slip or something like that. The fact that Pashinyan himself, who meets these guys multiple times a year at these various summits and doesn’t know who’s who, is just astounding to me.
Hovik Manucharyan: I mean
Asbed Bedrossian: So he goes back to his office and fires the guy in the middle of the event who was responsible for writing that piece of paper.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: But this is an aside.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, yeah. Anyway, so going back to this territorial issue, why offer it now? What has changed, in your opinion, Asbed?
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, I don’t know exactly what has changed, because we certainly haven’t heard from Baku whether
Hovik Manucharyan: Hmm.
Asbed Bedrossian: they endorse this. This is a vetted idea. I haven’t heard a peep from Aliyev himself. But my question, Hovik, what does Armenia gain?
If Artsvashen is exchanged, for example, with Tigranashen, both territories are Armenian. Tigranashen is an Armenian territory. And so are we going to be, you know, is this some kind of proposal to obfuscate the fact that we are giving land for our own land for the sake of some kind of peace or whatever? I just do not understand it.
The other thing I don’t understand is Grigoryan saying that there is no agreement. They haven’t even discussed this thing in the Border Commission or anything like that. But okay, so if there is no predetermination or discussion, then why is Pashinyan calling Tigranashen and Kyarki?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, exactly.
Asbed Bedrossian: I don’t get it.
Hovik Manucharyan: Look, just if you take Pashinyan at face value, why would Aliyev agree to come up with some kind of equitable arrangement? And, you know, it is Azerbaijan’s strategic position to keep tensions going. So I don’t believe Azerbaijan ever wants to settle with Armenia, regardless of all the sweet words that Pashinyan is saying. you know, this idea that, you know, a peace deal was imminent. He campaigned on that, you know, we’ll all bring you peace.
And now we hear this, this 2031 date conveniently, you know, just, I guess, you know, on the,
Asbed Bedrossian: I think he’s buying himself time.
Hovik Manucharyan: yeah, yeah, just for the next elections.
Asbed Bedrossian: He has no idea how he’s going to meet these demands to change the constitution, a referendum, even if ultimately he’s able to hold a referendum, he doesn’t have the votes to pass the referendum. It’ll just be a no. But, Hovik, let me ask you a question. Is all territory, is every square inch equal to every other square inch?
Let’s say there’s no evidence that they’re talking about Artsvashen versus Tigranashen. I don’t know anything about that. But let’s say that they start talking about those two specific locations. Is Tigranashen more important or less important than Artsvashen?
I mean, what about the border communities? What about the strategic value that a location presents to the country? These are not just, I don’t know if there’s been enough study done as to which territory is how important to the sovereignty and security of Armenia.
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, I mean, you have to look at the map. Tigranashen provides important communication between Armenia’s, I guess, middle and south of Armenia and with Iran.
Asbed Bedrossian: Call it the North and the South, absolutely.
Hovik Manucharyan: So essentially Tigranashen is the artery of Armenia’s communication with Iran.
Asbed Bedrossian: Mm-hmm.
Hovik Manucharyan: And on the eastern side, the so-called enclaves are on Armenia’s artery that connects Armenia with Georgia to the north.
So Azerbaijan wants a dominant position on both so that you know it is able to challenge Armenia’s territorial integrity in those areas and that’s the whole game I believe if there is any exchange of territories being discussed I think what Aliyev wants is he wants Kyarki and he also wants a way to communicate with Kyarki so Pashinyan will give some border lands that are outside Tigranashen to Aliyev or that’s what he will agree upon so that Aliyev has a so-called contiguous connection with Kyarki from Nakhichevan and that’s the worst
Asbed Bedrossian: Hrg,
Hovik Manucharyan: case and I believe that is actually You know, usually in the last five years, the worst case is what Armenians get under Pashinyan.
Asbed Bedrossian: Okay, so this would be in exchange for what, Hovik?
Hovik Manucharyan: He might, well, Armenians might get Artsvashen, with some land in addition that will connect Armenians to Artsvashen, but Artsvashen is basically like an appendix, a non-functioning organ inside Azerbaijan, no strategic value at all, and very difficult to defend militarily anyway, even if we get that land.
Asbed Bedrossian: And it’s just, I don’t know what kind of value it really presents.
Hovik Manucharyan: But, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s just, it’s some arable land. It’s a significant amount of land, but it’s
Hovik Manucharyan: Ben.
Asbed Bedrossian: just an enclave inside Azerbaijan.
Hovik Manucharyan: So, friends, we have well wishes, we have dreams, and then we have hardcore geopolitics. We’ve been talking about hardcore geopolitics, realpolitik on this podcast for the last five years.
If Azerbaijan has more military strength, and if Azerbaijan has a stronger negotiating position, why is it going to give away any of those positions the only way it would do it if it saw that there’s balance of forces between Armenia and Azerbaijan and that balance of forces doesn’t exist and our allies you know our relationship with our allies is in the gutter so we don’t even have a chance to rely on our allies thanks to Pashinyan so with those two things gone why would anyone And I mean, if you think this is going to be the formula for peace, then I don’t know what you’re smoking, but let us know in the comments
Asbed Bedrossian: One more question, Hovik, before we move on. Should we be having this conversation at all before Azerbaijan withdraws from the territories that it occupies in sovereign Armenia? It occupies over 200 square kilometers or 240-ish square kilometers.
Hovik Manucharyan: Exactly.
Asbed Bedrossian: I mean, at some point, what’s going to happen is that Pashinyan is going to try to convince everybody that peace means that we give, let’s say, peace means that we give, let’s say, Tigranashen and Azerbaijan goes a couple of kilometers back from all the territories that it has occupied.
Hovik Manucharyan: You know what’s even worse?
Asbed Bedrossian: That is not…
Hovik Manucharyan: What’s even worse, Asbed, is there’s no indication that Azerbaijan ever wants to relinquish those lands that Pashinyan says are internationally recognized Armenian lands, which is true, of course.
Asbed Bedrossian: But they’ve been reinforcing their positions.
Hovik Manucharyan: they’ve been reinforcing and every year, even including after 2025 when so-called you know, when they went to Washington, D.C. and pre-signed or initialed this peace deal you know Azerbaijan has been continuously reinforcing and fortifying their positions. They have no intention of giving this away, folks. Forget about it. They are never going to relinquish those lands.
Mark my words, folks.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, if you all believe that those lands are going to be relinquished without trouble, if you believe that there is peace in Armenia, Groong has a bridge to sell you.
Hovik Manucharyan: Artsvashen. In Artsvashen.
Asbed Bedrossian: In Artsvashen, there is a bridge to nowhere.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s right. Okay, well, these are all unanswered questions. Pashinyan is raising even more questions than answers with his ridiculous idea that everything is going to be okay as long as the number remains 29,743. I sure hope he has counted them one by one.
I don’t know where that number exactly comes from. Well, I do, but it’s just kind of an imaginary number.
Hovik Manucharyan: Look, I mean, we can, Aliyev might say, you know, your 28,000 of your 29,000 square kilometers is on the moon, you know, go get it.
Asbed Bedrossian: Iyh!
Hovik Manucharyan: Or, so, I mean, it sounds like a joke, but that is essentially what Pashinyan is talking about. He goes, we don’t have our recognized borders, we’re in a very weak position, so we’re going to keep conceding away land. We might get our 29,743. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is staking its ground, it’s saying, okay, these are ours, and Pashinyan is recognizing, at least in the case of Tigranashen, you know, that’s essentially one, like, it’s like cutting away one of your, you know, arteries.
Asbed Bedrossian: And I sure as hell don’t see an army that can stand up for Armenia.
Hovik Manucharyan: And… Yeah, yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hovik, I want to move on to COP17,
Asbed Bedrossian: this convention on biodiversity that’s been going on in Yerevan. It’s a gigantic PR stunt that is being hosted by the government. Now, listeners, if you want to follow COP17, please go to government media. There’s 1,000 articles and a gazillion pictures that they are posting every 15 minutes or every 20 minutes.
They just love this stuff. But I want to touch on just two or three topics from COP17. One of the themes of COP17 is the preservation of the link between indigenous people
Asbed Bedrossian: and their lands. Hovik, what topic is taboo and disallowed in Armenia at COP17?
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, indigenous Armenian land, of course.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s right. We have 150,000 dispossessed Armenians from Artsakh, and they are not allowed to talk about this topic at COP17. They are not allowed to have a pavilion at the Green Zone, which is for this kind of stuff. And the protests for Artsakh’s human rights are being kept away from all COP17 convention areas.
Asbed Bedrossian: The other one doesn’t even have to do with Artsakh. It has to do with Armenia proper. It’s the Shikahogh State Reserve, which is a lush forest area that is in Syunik province, adjacent to the border with Azerbaijan, basically that Kovsakan and Zangelan region. territory actually falls within the 200 square kilometers that we were talking about earlier that Azerbaijan has invaded and taken over. Well, reports are that they have destroyed and burned over 60 hectares of lush forestry.
And, Hovik, guess what we’re not allowed to talk about at COP17? Biodiversity.
Hovik Manucharyan: Armenian biodiversity.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, that’s right. We’re not allowed to talk about that because it explicitly, I believe that, I can’t remember exactly who said it. Maybe it was Pashinyan, maybe one of the representatives from Civil Contract that said that it goes against the presidency of COP17 to talk about this, because obviously Pashinyan made some kind of a deal last year so that Aliyev and Azerbaijan would sign off on COP17 being hosted in Armenia. They were not allowed, supposedly, they’re not allowed to talk about Armenian POWs.
They’re not about to talk about preserving any of the territory that has been invaded by Azerbaijan. One of the UN executive secretaries was asked, Astrid Schomaker, I think. She was asked about the Armenian POWs, and she declined to talk about it. She said, well, I’m a biodiversity person and I don’t want to talk about politics.
What do you make of this?
Hovik Manucharyan: I mean, we knew that this COP17 was basically going to be an for Armenia, for Pashinyan to PR himself and PR his agenda. And this was essentially achieved at a great concession where Armenia allowed Azerbaijan to host COP29 last year and whitewash its image of genocide. So it’s a win-win for Aliyev, the two genocidal monsters, Aliyev and Pashinyan,
Asbed Bedrossian: There were certainly no limits on what Aliyev could say from the podium at COP29 last
Hovik Manucharyan: and we’re not even counting Erdogan . Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: year. And he absolutely trashed, and I can’t remember the exact words that he said at the moment, but he basically called all of the leaders separatists and fascists and criminals and blah, blah, blah.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: But we are not allowed to talk about our own forests being destroyed. We’re not allowed to talk about Armenian POWs after years in Baku jails. And this is the truth.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. And what was more striking, I mean, the only, I think, foreign leader that I was sort of glad to see in Armenia during this conference was Masoud Pezeshkian and the Iranian delegation. And we can talk even a little bit more about that. So they managed to schedule a visit and it was, you know, Abbas Araghchi was in Armenia and so was Masoud Pezeshkian.
Asbed Bedrossian: Mm-hmm.
Hovik Manucharyan: but all the other visitors it was very surreal, right? For someone like Armenia who claims to be steadfastly marching towards Europe, this seemed like most of
Asbed Bedrossian: Almost a member of the EU.
Hovik Manucharyan: a Central Asian conference, like all the Central Asian leaders were there, no European leader, no Western leader was present at a high level So, yeah, that was very surreal.
Asbed Bedrossian: Let’s be clear about that. Not a single European country leader is attending COP17. Not the US. Not Russia.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: There’s nobody. I mean, Iran is here with president and foreign minister, and God
Hovik Manucharyan: And that…
Asbed Bedrossian: bless Iran, really. Those people are steadfast friends.
Hovik Manucharyan: But I think Iran was also here to deliver a message.
Asbed Bedrossian: But nobody else.
Hovik Manucharyan: think it was Pezeshkian’s office that said, you know, we believe that Armenia will not do anything to jeopardize our relations with, you know, in our interests.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s a very sweet way
Hovik Manucharyan: But, okay, the ink,
Asbed Bedrossian: of saying you better not do anything. Well, I mean, there’s a lot of interaction right now.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: There have been at least three meetings of the leadership in Bishkek. I think they met and then Pashinyan was in Tehran for the supreme leader’s And then I think this visit, they really didn’t have to come to COP17, but I think that they want to come and discuss these issues further about the United
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, I don’t think with Iran, with all the oil fields in Iran burning,
Asbed Bedrossian: States as a presence. so
Hovik Manucharyan: with all of the destruction that the U.S. is imposing on Iran, coming to a climate conference in Armenia, I don’t think that that was their number one motivation, right, to come and talk about the environment. especially when the entire sort of international rule of law is broken down. COP17 means nothing now. It’s under the auspices of the UN. You can even see it in terms of the attendance.
No Western country found it important to attend this. And given how the U.S. and the West have worked to disempower the United Nations, none of the decisions, none of the agenda on COP17 has any meaning the West, just like Artur Martirosyan said last week.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, it’s just a feel-good assembly.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: When we were talking about this with Artur Martirosyan last week, he said, this is just a feel-good assembly where diplomats come to wine and dine for a few days, they feel good that they have goodwill towards the environment, and then they go home and they forget about it. And this is well known by international NGOs. I mean, Greenpeace put out a press release demanding that these people who are here move from all these statements to real actions. We’ll see if anything like that happens.
Hovik Manucharyan: So, I guess the UN secretary was also in Armenia.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, Guterres, Antonio Guterres was here also.
Hovik Manucharyan: He, yeah. So when he was asked about Armenian POWs in Baku, what was his reply? Peace is important to us, blah, blah, blah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Ha ha
Hovik Manucharyan: We call on all parties, both sides, blah, blah, blah. God bless, you know. And it was the most disgusting instance of patronization and mockery of the pain felt by Armenians right now, by true Armenians, by most of Armenians, I would say. And yeah, you know, it’s.
It was just a confirmation for me that international order doesn’t exist. All of these are just ghosts. All these people are ghosts, walking around without any impactful abilities. All right.
Asbed Bedrossian: Did you actually expect him to say more than that?
Hovik Manucharyan: Of course not.
Asbed Bedrossian: I mean, we’ve said on this show multiple times, some of these people can’t
Hovik Manucharyan: know.
Asbed Bedrossian: be more Armenian than Armenians. And as far as these POWs go, the real problem, us Armenians or the Armenian government, look in the mirror, right?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, exactly.
Asbed Bedrossian: This government, Pashinyan’s government, is the one that does not want the POWs back. And that’s why those people have not come back. After multiple offers, Trump offering to get those Christian POWs back. and Pashinyan basically turning it down.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Just imagine one morning Pashinyan wakes up and finds out that Aliyev had a change of heart and sent the POWs back, and Ruben Vardanyan is in Yerevan.
Hovik Manucharyan: he will have a lot of doo-doo to deal with. But I think way before that, Pashinyan will be gone because I don’t see our prisoners of war, unfortunately, returning without the primary reason why they’re in Baku, whose name is Nikol and whose last name is Pashinyan, without a primary reason being removed from Armenia. And so, yeah, the day that our prisoners are back will probably be a day when Pashinyan won’t be in power in Armenia.
Hovik Manucharyan: since COP17 is not talking about indigenous rights or the rights of indigenous Armenians, let us talk also a little bit about the rights of the more than 100,000 or 150,000 Armenians who have been forcefully displaced from Artsakh, from their millennial-old homeland. so while the Armenian government has allocated more than 30 million to host this clown show under the name of COP17, most Artsakhtsis in Armenia still don’t have enough money, enough state support to secure a roof over their heads. They are forced to either get by on the well wishes wishes donations from regular Armenians.
I know many Armenians who still allow Artsakhtsis to live and if they have an extra apartment or extra place, they lend it to Artsakhtsis. Or they’re renting and they’re forced to seek out a job that is paying below what they would normally get in order just to sort of pay rent. So a five-year government program launched in 2024 made each Artsakh refugee eligible to get aid in the range of 5,000 to 14,000 which they must use for housing. $5,000 would buy you a chicken coop in Syunik.
Asbed Bedrossian: You can put a down payment on the bathroom.
Hovik Manucharyan: In Syunik! I mean, even in Syunik. You can’t even afford a bathroom with that money. And according to Torosyan, who is now Minister of Labor, confidants of Pashinyan, only 5,000 people have applied.
Surprise, surprise.
Asbed Bedrossian: Iy.
Hovik Manucharyan: You know, it’s in the worst village in Armenia, I think that 5,000 is like,
Asbed Bedrossian: Hovik, let me ask you a couple of questions.
Hovik Manucharyan: you know.
Asbed Bedrossian: A while back, we were hearing that in order to get aid, these people had to accept Armenian citizenship, which was laden with a lot of other international consequences, for example, meaning to say that they are Armenian citizens, therefore, they’re not citizens of Artsakh. Is that still going on?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, but I think I want to rephrase that because Artsakhtsis, even though they were citizens of Artsakh, were also citizens of Armenia. What they are forcing people to do is to give up their old passports, which had Armenian passports and they had the 071 prefix, 07 yeah maybe 070 I think I forget accept your passports. invalidating their old passport, which was recognized by many governments around the world. If you had a 071 passport during the times of Robert Kocharyan or Serzh, you could travel around the world and you were recognized as an Armenian citizen. now
Asbed Bedrossian: I think most importantly, Hovik, giving up that status, that 070 status, they were essentially relinquishing their claims for their right of return and everything, before there was any kind of a decision on what would happen to all
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: these refugees.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: So he was trying to predetermine their status and forcing them to give up their claims to their homeland.
Hovik Manucharyan: think I would still say more than 50% have not accepted that trade, no matter how, wouldn’t even say that Pashinyan is really trying, right? You know, if he raised this aid, the level of this aid to 100,000 or 50,000, maybe more Artsakhtsis would consider, okay, this is worthwhile for me. But I think, you know, if you look at many Artsakhtsis, they have their father, their brother killed, their sons killed. And to me, it seems like accepting blood money, you know, the act of relinquishing your passport.
Now, some people may be forced to do that, and many were forced to do that in order to vote in the elections. And we saw what happened in these elections anyway. Anyway, you know, The Armenian government is really not making it even worthwhile to do that. So a lot of families, I think, are faced with the dire choice of leaving Armenia completely and forgetting about Artsakh and just finding better pastures or greener pastures somewhere
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, and that’s happening, actually.
Hovik Manucharyan: else, mostly Russia. Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: I don’t remember the exact numbers, current numbers, but thousands have already left, primarily for Russia, I think, and that’s a sad thing. $5,000 to $14,000 is not going to do anything, especially not in the Yerevan area. And apparently they’re saying that even in the regions, they’re unable to find anything for those prices. And the funny thing is, Hovik, there is a crazy construction boom, something on the order of 24% increase over previous year, that’s fueling this 6% growth that we’re seeing in the Armenian economy. So there’s this crazy construction boom, mostly around Yerevan.
Who is this housing for if these people cannot even get any kind of housing?
Hovik Manucharyan: Definitely not for Artsakhtsis and definitely not even for regular Armenians, right? Pashinyan has passed specifically, they have passed regulation that will allow foreigners to purchase this property in Armenia without even being present in Armenia, without even having power of attorney in Armenia. So they’re just trying to make money from this, but it’s also another question of which foreigners will be interested in property in Armenia. You know, I’m sure a lot of foreigners who want to expropriate Armenian land, but I’m not sure if Americans or Europeans will be jumping at opportunities to get prime Yerevan real estate.
So, anyway.
Asbed Bedrossian: There are so many topics we can touch on.
Asbed Bedrossian: Let’s talk a little bit about municipal elections before we run out of time. Hovik, across Armenia, local municipal elections are going to be happening in 21 communities, and they’re becoming fairly intense political showdowns. They start next weekend, I think around October 25th, and behind the local debates over, you know, trash collection and roads and potholes and stuff like that, themes that are emerging amidst heavy political polarization, administrative resource pressure, and the ruling party pushing hard to secure municipal control. And when I say pushing hard, that’s a very nice and civilized term.
They’re actually doing a lot of coercion, and they’re doing some very heavy arm twisting behind the scenes, some of which is actually in the news already. Are you seeing any patterns that are emerging from these municipal elections? They are being considered important.
Hovik Manucharyan: I think the biggest importance to these elections is given by a Civil Contract itself. It wants to consolidate its base. The municipal elections are a way of extending and increasing your efficiency of administrative resources. You have village mayors who will be able to dictate how some villagers vote or, you know, through funneling state money to these villagers through favoritism.
So this is a way for Civil Contract to reinforce its administrative power and administrative resources in these elections. Secondarily, I think it serves as a PR tactic for Pashinyan to say, see, you know, we’re going to win in these elections and But these are inconsequential to the national issues. So at the same time, Pashinyan is taking a no-holds-barred approach, right? They are heavily relying on existing incumbents.
So people who already have 20 years, for instance, in the case of, let’s say, the community in Gavar, of already ruling this region. So they go and establish partnerships with these existing leaders. And these, I would say that…
Asbed Bedrossian: In many cases, Hovik, the reports are that they have kompromat on these people, and they basically say that if they don’t collaborate with Civil Contract, they will be imprisoned, they’ll be in pretrial detention,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, they will have a lot to lose.
Asbed Bedrossian: there will be corruption charges against them.
Hovik Manucharyan: And even if there is no compromise, we’ve seen what happens in Vayots Dzor and Gyumri, where the government will withhold
Asbed Bedrossian: And Goris, the Arushanyan case is very famous.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, the case of Arush Arushanyan. But even if you have a saint, the government will withhold money from the community. They will try to cause a hung quorum or, you know, lack of quorum, and they will try to disrupt the administrative capacity of that municipality. So there is really, unless you have your very principled, unfortunately there is not a lot of upside for these existing leaders to go against Pashinyan, even in the face of a treasonous central government.
But I’m not saying this to exonerate any leaders, I think they’re as treasonous as Pashinyan, whether it’s Arush Arushanyan and Jemma Harutyunyan in Amasia who have actually converted to Civil Contract officially.
Asbed Bedrossian: They have seen the light, O Lord.
Hovik Manucharyan: but there will be a reckoning day for all these folks, but I’m just trying to explain why it’s so easy for a Civil Contract to get these people on their side. And unfortunately, that’s the strength of the central government. All this talk about municipal independence has been, over the last seven years, in the previous regimes, they’re even more inept right now by law because Pashinyan If municipalities were in the previous regimes, they’re even more inept right now by law because Pashinyan can do everything to make life very bad for these municipalities who declare some kind of a streak of independence.
Asbed Bedrossian: You know, with Civil Contract absorbing all of these formerly opposition mayors, essentially, it’s kind of funny to see how they have become now the formers that
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: they so hate.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, exactly. In fact, I’m in Gavar right now. Just to give one example, I’m recording this from Gavar, Armenia. And in Gavar, just like in Goris, they have this solidarity alliance.
They have Arush Arushanyan. The mayor of Gavar has been mayor here for 20 years. essentially signed the solidarity alliance with the party of the mayor, but they’re backing, Civil Contract is backing the mayor, knowing full well that this mayor will do everything they are told by the central government, by the Pashinyan government, and by the security
Asbed Bedrossian: Even though he’s not a Civil Contract member himself.
Hovik Manucharyan: No. Yes, exactly.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, what’s going on in Gyumri, Hovik?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, the only exception to, we’ll see a few, you know, exceptions to the rule, right? One of them is Gyumri. Gyumri is Armenia’s second largest city, and it’s a uniquely defiant hub. Ghukasyan is the mayor, and he’s under arrest.
That’s all you need to know. He was legally elected. His house arrest has been extended over and over. Criminal charges have been filed against his son, members of his family.
In fact, if you can contrast that with Goris, Arush Arushanyan, there were criminal charges filed against him too, they’ve been forgotten, you know, they’ve been torn up because
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah. Arushanyan was let go almost within a day of becoming a Civil Contract crony.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Meanwhile, I believe that pretrial detention was extended by three months only this past week.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: So way past the elections. me, let me, you mentioned Vayots Dzor and I just want to take a moment about that. But there were news articles that I think it was eight or was it nine people who are in office right now in Vayots Dzor had been threatened. Their family members were threatened and they were asked to drop out of the race so that they would not run against Civil Contract people. And apparently all but one said they are going to continue running and they are going to be in the opposition.
One person actually decided they could not deal with that and they dropped out of the situation. Coming back to Gyumri, why is it so important? Why is Gyumri such a big deal? We know that it’s the second largest city, but why is it such a big deal that Pashinyan is just aching for it?
Hovik Manucharyan: Look, I think he needs to show that there is complete subservience to him in all major communities. And Gyumri is one of those communities that he’s targeting. Abovyan, historically a strong ground for Gagik Tsarukyan , is another one. But in Gyumri, I mean, you have to understand that a lot of politics, you know, most of these mayors, most of these community leaders have a long tenure.
And they have a pretty strong following just based on their own family name. Maybe you can say it’s like clan membership. You can say it’s family ties. But most of these towns are controlled by families and their relatives.
And unfortunately, that’s how things are still done in some parts of the Caucasus,
Asbed Bedrossian: I remember that before Vardan Ghukasyan there was Balasanyan
Hovik Manucharyan: including some parts of Armenia. Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: and his party was called the Balasanyan Group.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: So it’s very feudal everywhere.
Hovik Manucharyan: It is. So that has the bad effects when just by taking control of one feudal group, Pashinyan is able to capture the, I guess, favors of the entire municipality because that mayor or that leader will then tell all his family, all his relatives to campaign for Pashinyan. In the case of Gyumri, I have to say, okay, maybe it is a clan as well. But in this case, the clan has some sense of patriotism.
That’s all I can say because, you know, I’m pretty sure that Vardan Ghukasyan was given a sum, but he failed to take it. He found that his patriotism, that his national values mean something to him more than just money. And unfortunately, that can’t be said about a lot of other clans and leaders in Armenia. It is based around a single personality, but in this case, a personality has also some national values.
And you know what? I’m going to say something else that maybe a lot of people will disagree with. I mean, corruption is bad, but many would argue that corruption has become worse under Pashinyan. But even then, all these former corrupt people who are now in jail, let’s assume that they were corrupt, whether it’s Gagik Khachatryan, whether it’s Gagik Tsarukyan, every one of them.
You know what these people at least did? At least, even if they acquired money illegally, they invested it back in Armenia. All of these traders today running Armenia are investing in Bitcoin and outside
Asbed Bedrossian: Mm-hmm.
Hovik Manucharyan: Armenia.
Asbed Bedrossian: Because that’s the way they’re going to take their money out when they’re done.
Hovik Manucharyan: Exactly. You look at Gagik Khachatryan, I don’t know what he did and I hope that he deserves, you know, he gets justice but true justice, not selective justice He has one of the biggest telecommunications companies in Armenia, Ucom, and as a result of that it has brought competition into the Armenian market when, let’s say back in the day It was just ArmenTel, and it was charging very high rates for internet and telecommunications. You know, and there was, you know, the quality was very bad. these people invested in jobs in Armenia.
Gagik Tsarukyan employs tens of thousands of people, I mean, it’s easy for us to forget that tens of thousands of people are unemployed just because Gagik Tsarukyan failed to obey Nikol Pashinyan. And he dared.
Asbed Bedrossian: Don’t forget to mention that there is a cement shortage in Armenia.
Hovik Manucharyan: There is a cement shortage. There is a… The Electric Networks is in shambles. Samvel Karapetyan, a billionaire, one of the richest people in the world, invested, bought this dilapidated electric networks in Armenia 10 years, almost 10 years ago, brought it up on its feet, and the state just sort of, you know, nationalized it.
Basically, Pashinyan took it away illegally. And now we’re seeing a lot of power outages. We’re seeing sub-quality service. Meanwhile, all the Pashinyan cronies are now getting these enormous salaries as the heads of these departments within the electric networks.
Asbed Bedrossian: 70% bonuses, etc.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. And the people aren’t seeing any of the benefits of these so-called nationalizations. So Poverty rates, unfortunately, despite all the polished PR that Pashinyan is getting now in international media, Armenia’s poverty rates have essentially stood around 22%. In the Shirak region, and he has not been able to make a dent at all in this.
In the Shirak region, it’s 43%. In some other border regions, it’s even worse, maybe like 60%. And I’m not even saying dire poverty, which is also significant. But even basic poverty, not being able to live within your means.
Somehow this is all being so far plastered over with like this propaganda that somehow EU is going to come and save us. Anyway, that was a big tangent.
Asbed Bedrossian: That was not a tangent. I asked you about Gyumri. One other thing that I want to add is that Gyumri has always been the poor child of all the cities in Armenia. Yerevan gets all the attention, all of the development, all of the money that comes outside, the millions and millions and millions that are invested, all in the center of Yerevan.
And Gyumri, I mean Gyumri, suffered horribly in the 1988 earthquake and there are people who are still living in metal shanties over there what 30 that was 1988 right how many years has it been almost 40 years 38 years after and there are people who do not have real homes so this has given I think a little bit of an opportunity well first of all it has created this environment for them where they feel embattled. They have grown their own character, their own center of gravity. They don’t think that any help is coming from Yerevan.
And when these people from Yerevan come and they say, well, you belong to us and we are going to rule this place, well, that’s not going to happen. These are not people who are going to give up easily.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: And what the situation has led is that it has given Strong Armenia a little bit of an on the whole situation. Samvel Karapetyan, like you said, is a very rich man. He made his fortune in Russia legally.
Hovik Manucharyan: Or, and outside of Russia as well.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, well, and outside, internationally,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: but primarily Russia, as we know. He came back and invested heavily in Armenia. Like you said, he bought the electric network and he’s made good on a lot of promises. But he’s also come down to Gyumri, And he’s basically saying that he’s going to invest very heavily in this city.
He’s had, I think he’s taken a little bit from the book of Civil Contract. He had a Gyumri day. He had a public concert. He has made significant promises and started investing in the renovation of the Kerkorian Street to bring it up to international standards and make it into a tourist zone.
So all of these things, people are seeing that Strong Armenia is actually coming in and investing and has started becoming a little bit of a base for Strong Armenia out there.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. And I hope that the Armenian opposition can build up more soft power in these communities. But it’s going to be difficult. In the context of the municipal elections, for instance, going back to the topic, Strong Armenia is running only in one community, Stepanavan, where, you know, it’s a stronghold for Samvel Karapetyan.
And I don’t blame them for it because I don’t think that you will be able to win these municipal elections because we’re seeing, you know, you either get arrested or you vote or you support Pashinyan. but I think there’s a lot that can be done by building up a soft power force in these regions and building up a base for the upcoming whatever elections they have I hope they’ll be like not regular ones but in this case, but I also want to criticize Strong Armenia because I think they could have fielded candidates in more than one location. So from the perspective of municipal elections, I don’t think they’re going all in.
And I guess, yeah, it’s expected, but also a little bit disappointing.
Asbed Bedrossian: I think there is a Civil Contract MP who just stepped down. I saw an article, Lilit Stepanyan is stepping down and she’s going to go and take over in Stepanavan or somewhere around there. Maybe I’m mistaking it. Anyway, yeah, there were some, I think Civil Contract is also positioning itself to make sure that Strong Armenia does not win in those communities.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, I mean, yeah, you can’t even allow minor victories for the opposition, but at least that’s the Civil Contract has a motive or has a reason for going all in. It needs to ensure there’s zero corners of opposition anywhere in Armenia. And through administrative resources, they’re able to do that. But I think the ARF is running in a few communities.
But even the ARF, they’re not fully all in. And they’re not running as high as on Dashnaktsutyun. So there will be a few towns that the Armenians, the opposition will have a strong presence in. And maybe Gyumri is still part of that.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hovik, I think…
Hovik Manucharyan: But for all intents and purposes, this is like, you know, Civil Contract is trying to sweep the board, basically.
Asbed Bedrossian: I think Gyumri is very important. I see that Strong Armenia is starting to use Gyumri as a platform to project a firm national and spiritual kind of a stance. It’s advocating its dignified peace over there, you know, the peace without unilateral concessions.
And basically I think that if Gyumri can go through this and stay whole it’s going to show Civil Contract that its power has limits and it’s going to show all these other mayors some of whom like the Arushanyan and stuff have given in and have joined the Borg in the center It’s going to show them that there are a lot of these opposition enclaves inside Armenia, and all they need to do is stick together, not sell out, and eventually it will take over the center itself. That’s my feel, but we have to go through this.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Seriously, I seriously think that Gyumri could be a center of revival for Armenian
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, definitely Gyumri is a stronghold, and as also
Asbed Bedrossian: patriotism, patriotism and
Hovik Manucharyan: exemplified by Archbishop Mikael Ajapahyan, who is the head of the Shirak Diocese.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: So it is also an important center of the Armenian Church. And for all those reasons, yes, I think that it is an important battleground between the opposition and the traitorous regime in Armenia today.
Asbed Bedrossian: Okay, Hovik, let’s leave it there for today and see how this goes. We are, okay, so today is October 21, a little after midnight from October 20th, even though you can see in my background it’s broad daylight. So these elections will happen during the course of next week. They’re not all happening at the same time, but, you know, over the next week, two weeks, we will see some results.
Hovik Manucharyan: Stay strong, folks.
Asbed Bedrossian: folks.
Hovik Manucharyan: I wouldn’t say we’re the bearer of bad news, but we’re the bearer of real news in Armenia. We’re fully independent. We’re obligated to bring you the truth so that you’re able to orient yourself in this of treason and misinformation. And, you know, we’re free of foreign funding.
So if you support that, if you like that, then consider going to podcasts.groong.org/donate and liking and commenting and sharing this so that we get more eyes and ears.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, we’re not sorry for looking under the rug from 29,743. We’ll keep doing it.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: I’m Asbed Bedrossian.
Hovik Manucharyan: And I’m Hovik Manucharyan.
Asbed Bedrossian: We’ll talk to you next week. Bye-bye.
Hovik Manucharyan: Bye-bye.