Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hello, everyone. Today on this Conversations on Groong episode, we are discussing a number of the topics salient on the Armenian political scene with our guest, Arthur G. Martirosyan, a specialist in international conflict management with CM Partners. Hello, Arthur.
Welcome back to the Groong podcast.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Hi. Thank you for having me. Good to see you.
Asbed Bedrossian: Great to have you here.
Hovik Manucharyan: Welcome back, Arthur. Welcome back.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Thank you.
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, let’s get to it.
Hovik Manucharyan: Armenians have been exposed for the last two weeks to this horrendous news about an Azerbaijani soldier who suddenly appeared in the home of a Shaki resident. Shaki is in the south of Armenia.
Apparently holding the children there hostage, mother came in, tried to defend her family, was shot and the whole hoopla around it, questions around whether this soldier was an escaped conscript who just didn’t want to serve his term or whether Pashinyan team is saying that this was just like maybe poor guy, he just needed some rest and he found a home so they were doing all they can to defend the intentions of the Azeri soldier, meanwhile casting doubt on the version of the story presented by this mother, heroic mother, who was defending her home and defending her children. But there is a lot that has happened over the last few weeks.
Tell us about your impressions about this incident. You can cover any aspect you want, whether it’s how the government handled it, what you think the real narrative is. What do you think happened?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, I think the penetration or crossing into the Armenian side is nothing unusual. These things happen. If we take, for instance, the China-India border, there are about 1,500 crossings like that in the last decade. India and China having a very difficult relationship, particularly about the delimitation of certain segments of border, which is around 500 miles, they have come to an agreement on how they’re going to be handling these issues.
The Armenian side, although it claims it’s reached a hundred year peace with Azerbaijan, doesn’t have the border delimited and doesn’t have any kind of an agreement, except for an oral agreement, as Pashinyan is stating. Except that the oral agreement, again, per Pashinyan, is differently interpreted by the sides. So what kind of an agreement do you have if it’s interpreted very differently? An oral agreement, why not on paper?
You’re talking about peace. Peace doesn’t come just by signatures on paper. Peace comes really on not only agreeing on what to do in such situations, but really implementing something. My perception is that the government, Armenian government, tried to find the guy and quietly give him back to Azerbaijan.
That didn’t work because they were not able to identify the guy, find him. Although the Azeri side claims that he went missing from the 26th, September 26th, and on September 29th they informed the Armenian counterparts, intelligence and security, that their soldier had crossed into the Armenian territory, so what’s the shortcoming here of the government? no matter what they say. What do you do if that happens?
You mobilize your search groups, you inform the population, because, you know, if he is a deserter, we do not know what were the circumstances that pushed him to desert, but psychologically he might be in a very unpredictable state, right? So he’s armed, and the best thing you need to do is Isolate and detain the guy, whether to return him or to keep him, that’s a different matter. The Armenian government fails to do that. They fail to inform the local population that that’s happening.
They fail in their search operation. And the guy ends up in a house. Apparently, there are different stories on what he was doing there. and nobody was in the house, cooked some macaroni, ate, and fell asleep. That’s one way of looking at it.
And then the family comes back and finds out someone sleeping in the bed. But another part of the story is that he did manage to aim his gun at the kids, and that’s where the mother intervened. What is Pashinyan saying? He’s saying that it was motherly instinct that had she controlled that instinct, the police would have come and nothing would have happened.
This is nonsense because we don’t know what could have happened, right? He is armed. He feels threatened. He is in an unknown territory.
And there are so many questions around his behavior. If he crossed into the Armenian territory just to surrender, he could have done that way back, not reaching Shaki.
Asbed Bedrossian: He had five days to do that.
Hovik Manucharyan: And 20 kilometers.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Yes. Yes, so we do not know what his motives were. We do not know what happened, but we definitely know that the government failed. The government failed this woman, this family, to protect them. and they didn’t take any measures that would be common sense.
I mean, you don’t need to, there’s no rocket science. I mean, if there is an armed soldier of the opposing army in your territory, you find him and then you decide what to do. Now the situation has gone out of control, Pashinyan’s control somewhat, And if it’s a sovereign country, he has to be investigated. And if it’s a sovereign country, he has to be investigated.
He needs to be taken through the trial, the verdict. That will take another three to four months. And then even if Armenia ratified the convention, European convention on such situations, and Azerbaijan did so, I think it’s 1983. I may be wrong. 1982. 1983 convention, I think.
I think both countries joined that convention. Then, six months later, you can transfer him to the other side so that the rest of whatever the verdict was, the sentence, he is taken to the Azerbaijani custody. long for Pashinyan. He would have wanted to give him as soon as possible to Azerbaijan. But now it’s not happening.
And for the Armenian side, peace, the way Pashinyan understands it, it’s unilateral concessions just to make the other side happy with whatever you’re doing. And if they have demands, you have to implement, you have to do everything that that way you confirm the peace, 100-year peace, as Pashinyan calls it. And I think this is almost a ridiculous failure on the Armenian side, because there is no peace without justice. If any settlement is based on flawed, or let me put it even bluntly, on the wrongdoings of one side, it’s not going to hold for too long.
That’s understandable. The Azerbaijani side essentially wants to close this page to make sure that Armenians forget about Artsakh . And Pashinyan is trying to play into whatever tune they are playing. I mean, therefore, for him, this incident, that the opposition in the parliament was pushing for him to make a commitment that he’s not going to be giving that soldier back to Azeri for nothing.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Something that really made him lose his temper. He was very angry with the opposition, and he was saying things like that happened before and are likely to happen in future. And if the Azeri side then would not give our soldiers back, that would be because of you pointing at the opposition. This is nonsense because…
Now we’ve seen some of these cases in recent years. I’m not going to go over all of them. But there is one remarkable case, which was, I think, in 2022, when Armenian soldier, I remember his name because it’s almost like my last name, except that it was an off, Martirosyan, I think, Edward Martirosyan, a soldier who crossed into Kovsakan, the Azeris call it Zangilan, into that area, and was taken by Azeris. I think it was April 2022.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Pashinyan then decided that he’s going to drop the Russian mediation and go for the European mediation. And he was getting into his meetings with Charles Michel in Brussels and with Aliyev . And in those meetings, it’s obvious that they were driving towards some kind of agreement, which later became known as the recognition of the borders, according to the Alma-Ata Declaration. It materialized in the same year in October 6, 2022.
Hovik Manucharyan: The Brussels process, I guess.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: But as soon as Aliyev sensed that he is in control of the game, taken the Russians out, he has taken him to the European mediation, and he has sold him this idea that if he recognizes Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan and forgets about Artsakh, the problem is going to be solved between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And that’s exactly what he sensed that it’s happening. And to please Charles Michel, he released the Armenian soldier. That’s in May 2022.
But later on, he initiated a major offensive against Armenian lines. And that was his way of preparing for October 6 negotiations in Prague.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: If you do what I’m asking you to do, what I demand that you do, I will be lenient. I will give you your soldier. But if you try to step out of the line that I have drawn for you, then I’m going to come with force and I’m going to get what I want by force. That’s what he did.
And in Prague, Pashinyan agreed to recognize Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan. is singing the song of the Alma-Ata Declaration, a sancta sanctorum,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: that it’s one way to secure peace with Azerbaijan. And no matter what statements Pashinyan is making about the need to exchange the enclaves, rescind every demand, territorial demands on each other, and forget about Western Azerbaijan, But Artsakh, he’s not getting anything. It’s not reciprocated by the Azeri side.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: It’s only him, almost like publicly daydreaming about what he wants to get out of this.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: So the story of the soldier falls into this whole narrative with its patterns, where the Armenian side, that is Pashinyan, again, is ready to make any concessions to please Baku. because he thinks that’s the way to peace. It is not the way to peace. It’s the way to become essentially another vilayet in the
Asbed Bedrossian: Subservient
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Turan that Aliyev and Turkey are going to build.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, speaking of public daydreaming, Pashinyan went on social media again. First of all, he said separately that he is going to set the goal of 2031 for arriving at the peace deal with Azerbaijan. But also on the contentious issue of territories, he basically said that his formula will include that all of the enclaves essentially will be reunited with their home country.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: All right.
Hovik Manucharyan: So if there is any sliver of Armenian territory or Azerbaijan territory in between So if there is any sliver of Armenian territory or Azerbaijan territory in between
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Hmm.
Hovik Manucharyan: be connected to Armenia proper and so will the other so-called enclaves
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: what do you think about his vision of this peace that he’s building and the 2031 deadline and the territorial exchange as well
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, it takes two to tango, right? I mean, he’s coming up with all these proposals, making them public, thinking that the other side is going to reciprocate and come up with a quick response, positive response to whatever he’s saying. But the other side, as I already mentioned, is in no hurry to respond to that, and in fact has no intention to respond to that. They have their demands.
The list is much longer than what has been publicized, obviously, because they are positive. There must be some oral agreements that Pashinyan has to deliver. At this point, he hasn’t delivered any of his promises to Aliyev. Changing the constitution hasn’t happened yet.
So the delimitation, the way Aliyev understands it, hasn’t happened yet. There are so many other things that Aliyev, I’m sure, is demanding from the Armenian side that hasn’t happened. The only real thing that has happened is Armenia has made an international public statement that it doesn’t have any legal claims to Azerbaijan. That’s the only thing that we know, and the OSCE Minsk Group has been closed.
These demands have been satisfied, but I think Azerbaijan is expecting more for him to deliver. whatever Azerbaijan is demanding. All this is going to be, I think, to the delight of Aliyev. Because Aliyev knows this is the time for him to either really close the Artsakh issue, one, and he needs that for the domestic reasons, His clan and the continuation of the Aliyev-Pashayev clan’s rule of Azerbaijan depends on how they manipulate the local populace, right? Yes, Artsakh, Karabakh, they got back.
And that’s huge for Aliyev. But he needs something else. And that something else is a new kind of mission, and that is Western Azerbaijan. Is he going to drop that just because Pashinyan is so generous in his offers?
No, of course not. He’s going to continue to pressure Armenia, waiting for the moment when, if Pashinyan is not going to deliver what he promised, then he might even look into opportunities to get what he wants by force. So far, he doesn’t need to apply force because Pashinyan is willing to give it to him. It’s that the post-electoral situation in Armenia is not so favorable for him to deliver everything immediately because he doesn’t have the constitutional majority in the parliament.
But that is not something that is going to stop Pashinyan. He’s going to go after the church. He’s going to go after some of the leaders who are on the wanted list by Azerbaijan. He’s going to deliver everything, including conditions provided by the Armenian constitution for the minorities.
It’s not about the Russian minority or Yezidi minority. It is really going to be about the Azerbaijani minority that will have to return, according to Aliyev, to their motherland. And Aliyev is repeating all these things publicly. I mean, I think he went on public again a couple of days ago.
Asbed Bedrossian: Even in the United Nations.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, everywhere. And I don’t understand. I mean, if you are a politician in Armenia and you are making some kind of statements about the other side, you have to at least try to back it by real quotes or real statements of the other side. But you don’t have any.
You have statements contrary to what you are saying, but you continue to sell that to your own population, that this is really the peace and the solutions that you propose are going to be accepted by the other side. But in negotiations, it doesn’t work that way. In negotiations, you need to understand what the other side wants. And often what the other side wants requires that you take a very strong and very firm stance and say no to what they want.
Asbed Bedrossian: Arthur, so far the story has been that the change of the constitution, well the constitution, the new draft is going to be ready let’s say by the end of 2026, referendum planned for 2027, etc, etc.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Thank you.
Asbed Bedrossian: But now in the past week, Pashinyan has been floating this 2031 date. Is this a balloon that he’s floating to Aliyev that he needs more time or has Aliyev agreed with this?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: All
Asbed Bedrossian: from a negotiation and demagoguery perspective, how do you put this together?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: right. Well, I don’t think Pashinyan can be confident that if he runs a referendum, he’s going to get the results that he wants. Obviously, the referendum legislation in Armenia has lowered the bar to the lowest possible point, which is 25%. It’s very low.
So, can he get 25%? recent elections results, it looks like he can get more than 25% if he keeps the participation low, even at 58%, as was during the elections. He gets roughly 49% of it, which is about 29% of the overall electorate, right? That’s more than the 25% minimum that he needs. He cannot be confident that he can get that when the issue is going to be about the Constitution.
So if he’s not confident about it, as he’s not confident in running a referendum on whether Armenia wants to go to Europe or continue to stay in the Eurasian Economic Union , he tries to avoid that kind of an issue, right? that’s towards the end of his term and he’s hoping to make such changes that would enable him to get the vote that he wants. So and in his understanding it’s all about
Asbed Bedrossian: But do you think that Aliyev is just going to sit tight and not do anything for five years while Pashinyan goes back and piles up a whole bunch of mileage points between here and Europe?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Yeah, that’s a good question about Aliyev. It’s not like, I mean, his own population is ready for another war or something. But he certainly understands. I mean, I don’t know if he has read Clausewitz, but definitely understands some of the things that Pashinyan seemingly doesn’t.
And that is, you can push the other side into concessions just by threatening the war. not necessarily need to go to the war, especially given that the other side already is playing that game and is telling its own population that, oh, if you don’t want another war, we need to do this. If you don’t want a war, we need to make another concession. So that’s a perfect setup for Aliyev. Now, Aliyev himself is, I think, interested in a longer game around this, right?
He doesn’t want to get everything right now because then the population in Azerbaijan is going to be asking even for more. So if it drags for another couple of years, he will be feeding his own population by the stories that we’re working on it, but just as in Karabakh, be patient, and we’re going to get what we promised you. We’re going to get you the Western Azerbaijan, but it’s going to take some time, right? You see how things are.
But in reality, Aliyev and maybe in cooperation with Turkey again, they’re going to be looking into any opening, any opportunity internationally where they can use force and solve it by force. I don’t think they will shy of using force if they can see that they can do it and
Asbed Bedrossian: Right.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: get away with it.
Asbed Bedrossian: I agree with that.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Right. But right now they do not need that. they have a player in Armenia who is willing to do everything they want. Armenia wants the border with Turkey open. It’s not going to be open because Erdogan , being kind of the, you know, street smart guy of Istanbul, and we understand the type of person we’re dealing with, he once said, you have to do everything that Aliyev wants and then come to us for the border.
Until you have implemented every point on Aliyev’s list, don’t come to us. And that’s what is happening.
Asbed Bedrossian: Right.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: That’s exactly what is happening.
Asbed Bedrossian: Arthur, you mentioned a little earlier that there are unwritten demands, and
Asbed Bedrossian: we don’t really, really know these, but do we actually have a hint at them? For example, when Aliyev says that Kocharyan and Sargsyan and maybe even LTP were war criminals and need to be brought to justice, has that basically been conveyed to Pashinyan as a demand that needs to be satisfied at some point? This was certain Azerbaijan bullshit that he is promoting even from podiums in the UN. Are those demands?
Or the church, is this a demand from Azerbaijan?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: No, I think we can infer…
Asbed Bedrossian: Or are these just basically fuzz-busting topics like red herrings?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: No, no, I think we can infer some of the things that the Azerbaijani side wants. I don’t know about Kocharyan and especially Serzh Sargsyan and LTP to be convicted as war criminals in Armenia will be delivered to Azerbaijan for another trial.
Asbed Bedrossian: No.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: I’m not sure if that’s in the making I think Pashinyan understands I mean he’s an opportunist and a populist who really has a good sense of what’s going to help him stay in power some of the things that are going to go against that agenda he has I don’t think he’s going to do but your question is I think well put infer what else Azerbaijan wants from the statements that Aliyev is making. What does he want?
He says that Azerbaijanis have to return to their homeland, that the territory that is the current Armenia was really carved by the Russians from the Islamic world, as if he So we understand that it’s impossible that he only talks about it to his own population and doesn’t change. He keeps talking about the same things. And that these issues have not been raised a single time with Pashinyan. I cannot imagine as a negotiator that is happening.
Most likely he has said that to Pashinyan, that this is going to happen. You have to provide first in your constitution, then legally, if you are a European country, a democratic country aspiring European Union accession, you have to respect this right of the Azerbaijanis to return. Pashinyan is countering that, and that’s his latest escapade. that let’s stop where we are. Okay, we are not saying about the return to Artsakh.
You are not talking about Western Azerbaijan. But again, I mean, that’s him talking. It doesn’t mean that the other side doesn’t have that agenda. They have that agenda.
They have that program. And they’re going to go about implementing it, no matter where you stand and no matter what you say. So Pashinyan is right now maybe sensing that there are some complications and issues in Azerbaijan with the hijab wearing by schoolgirl and so
Asbed Bedrossian: Right.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: on, so that this is the right time to come up with a proposal that should be appreciated by all.
Asbed Bedrossian: Right.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: We kind of develop this peace agenda. Maybe that’s coming also on advice from some people in his entourage. I do not know, but I think it’s, again, a very moot point because the other side has to agree to it publicly, come with you on this mutual understanding of where we’re going. So far, he has his own peace
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: plan or peace agenda, and it’s not going anywhere.
Asbed Bedrossian: I want to move to our next topic, which has to do with the whole nuclear power plant and Russian railway concession issue. Those are very interesting to me because you, as an international negotiations, conflict management expert, we wanted to hear your input on this. Earlier in the summer, and for a long time actually, Pashinyan took a fairly hard stance with Russia, actually towards Russian Railways, which holds a concession on Armenia’s entire rail network until 2038.
So he threatened international arbitration, criticized Russian Railways’ lack of competitiveness, as he called it, and proposed transferring the management to a neutral third party.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: All right.
Asbed Bedrossian: And Russia fired back with financial leverage points, demanding $400 million in investment that would be blown up the concession were altered or terminated early. Now, on a separate track, Arthur, Pashinyan has also been going around for at least a year saying that Armenia’s next nuclear power plant is going to be a Western SMR, a small modular reactor, basically, regardless of the fact that Hovik and I don’t agree with the megawatt math that he was doing. Now, suddenly in the past week, he has wised up, it seems.
He’s met with the CEO of Russian Railways, Oleg Belozyorov, and instead of what we thought he might be invoking arbitration contract ultimatums, he suddenly initiated a three-month joint working group. And the result in three months will be to let Moscow propose to make the railway more competitive. He talked about a potential $3 billion investment on the part of Russia. And this whole thing comes on the heels of Pashinyan signaling that Armenia will likely opt for Rosatom’s 1,000 megawatt nuclear reactor instead of some American
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Right.
Asbed Bedrossian: SMR.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Right.
Asbed Bedrossian: I think the gigawatt math actually adds up a little bit better. But we want to ask you, how is this working? Because if you take these issues one at a time, it seems like we’re at a dead end. We’re deadlocked.
But Russia has suddenly started cross-linking these issues and created some possibilities here.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, this is probably a story of incompetence in some ways, because it’s axiomatic for any negotiator. If you have poor alternatives, if your alternatives are non-existent, and if you are threatening the other side, bluffing that you’re going to go with this alternative or that alternative, and the other side knows that you don’t have them, right? The United States doesn’t have a single operational SMR, period. The only countries that do have it, Russia and China.
I mean, are you saying that the Americans are going to come and experiment in Armenia first? Yes, there are some licensing issues, I think, in Tennessee and Wyoming for two modular nuclear plants, but that hasn’t really turned into making yet even, right? And you have the time ticking away. You need some decisions to be made because you have tied almost your entire development to this data center that you are putting in Armenia,
Asbed Bedrossian: Mm-hmm.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: which is going to require a lot of energy. In my…
Asbed Bedrossian: Arthur, can I just interrupt for one second?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Oh, yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: We’re not against SMRs to speak. I mean, the technology, I’m sure, is going to be sound and everything. I just don’t want the first one in Armenia.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: No. No, no, no.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s all.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, I mean, the issue, they do not exist yet.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, I don’t want the first one to be in Armenia.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: I mean, the ones that exist, I mean, in Russia and China. Okay, so, and the real issue is, yes, he says now, we’re going to need a lot more energy for the data center. In my home state, Massachusetts, in western Massachusetts, I think there were proposals for two data centers, and both have been rejected by the local population. For a reason, right?
Well, okay, I mean, I’m not against the data center in Armenia, although it comes with lots of problems, both Russians and Iranians opposed to it. but you must have had some experts who could have calculated how much energy is going to be required do you have that you don’t but you are playing you’re bluffing that you have the alternative and if Russians know that you don’t have that alternative what it takes is uh at the table a negotiator pushes you almost to the corner show me your alternative and you don’t have it and if you don’t have it then you have to take at even higher price what the other side is telling you to take this is it and I think Pashinyan whether that’s his background in yellow journalism where he thinks that he can bluff use compromise or whatever to force his clients to agree to pay That article will appear in his newspaper about them.
That kind of mentality is not working in international negotiations. Maybe they are learning lessons right now. But when you have so many vulnerabilities and sensitivities in your dependence on one player, I’m talking now about this as a realist. I’m not saying whether that’s good or bad.
I’m just saying it’s a fact. It’s a fact. vulnerabilities, sensitivities and you should come to terms with that reality. But you start playing alternatives game, you know, telling them oh, we’ll sell our flowers to Europe, we’ll do this, we’ll do that and they know that you don’t have it yet. Maybe one day you’ll develop it, but at this point you don’t have it and therefore you are vulnerable and they can call your bluff any moment and that’s what is happening.
Asbed Bedrossian: So what should we expect from this 90-day working group? Is this a real thing? Will there be a real outcome as the common folks think about it? Or is this some bureaucratic boondoggle to let Pashinyan buy some time, kick the
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, I think…
Asbed Bedrossian: can down the alley and find a better time to continue his Western pivot?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Yeah. Yeah, I cannot say, obviously, for sure. There are different scenarios of what might happen, depending on what Russians decide, what the Armenian side agrees to do. But I do not rule out that Russians will throw in something small in.
They would say, oh, we’re developing one more railroad line for you guys. We’re investing another couple of hundred.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, he’s expecting $3 billion in investments.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: We’re investing a lot more money now into making a state-of-the-art railroad, and it will end at that. I mean, will that happen over years or will not that happen? This, again, goes back to Pashinyan as a political animal. this is not a pejorative kind of use, right? He has a sense of what he can get for the moment to survive politically.
What’s going to happen several years from now, several months from now, that’s not essential. When the day comes, we’ll find a way to find a new arrangement. But for now, if I’m going to stay and survive because of what has been agreed, I’m fine. I will be asking not to raise any tariffs, not to raise the price on energy, and that will be great for Armenia.
Asbed Bedrossian: Do you think maybe he’s also raised the issue of not blocking the TRIPP project maybe?
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, TRIPP, I don’t know. I mean, there is a lot of talk about TRIPP moving along, developing, but we haven’t seen any real progress yet. There’s a lot of talk about it. But what’s the real progress on the ground?
Yes, the Azerbaijani side has built, everything has brought to the border, and they’re ready to move on. but there is no real movement. I’m not saying that it’s not going to happen. I’m just saying that the whole construct is around one man wanting a Nobel Prize and another peace agreement, and Azeris and Turks wanted to own that whole thing.
Asbed Bedrossian: Mm-hmm.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: And the Armenian side playing this Crossroads of Peace, everybody is going to gain from this. That’s all, you know, Pollyanna. I mean, it’s not real. It’s not real.
Asbed Bedrossian: Part of Pashinyan’s problem is that the Iranians have opposed it,
Arthur G. Martirosyan: I mean…
Asbed Bedrossian: Russians have opposed it, but if Pashinyan can suddenly get the Russians to, I’m not sure the right word is, to greenlight the U.S.-Armenia TRIPP project in exchange for whatever it is that the Russians will want, because, you know, the Russian concession actually includes explicit guarantees that Russia will control the border points between Armenia and Azerbaijan. and Turkey. So that’s a lot of control they will get with the Russian concession until 2038.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: So I’m just wondering exactly where the negotiations are at a very fine point.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, I think a lot depends here on the so-called spoilers, and you name them, Iran and Russia, suddenly see this as a threat to their interests, for many different reasons. And no matter how much Pashinyan is trying to sell them, this idea that everybody is going to gain from it, it’s all going to be towards the original peace, blah, blah, blah, I don’t think they are really buying into all that. For Russians, I think ultimately this may mean that they are no longer going to be needed in the region. So, militarily, the border with Turkey, all of it is going to be gone.
And this is the, just to remind you, this is the only place where the Russian soldier is still based,
Asbed Bedrossian: Mm-hmm.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: in the South Caucasus .
Asbed Bedrossian: Mm-hmm.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: So no matter how much kind of commercial interests are driving Kremlin, I think they understand that this is a long term, this is going to be a huge problem for them. And similarly, Iran would not want to have, they’ve gone public saying that, they would not want an American presence on their border. and they see now not only as American, but also Israeli presence on their border. And they are, well, I mean, you can say that it’s not a real war right now between Israel, United States, and Iran, but modern wars are fought that way, right? There can be a lull, there can be a renewal.
We’ve seen that happen all the time. So I don’t know. I don’t see Iranians warming up to these ideas at any point. So the two players, and one behind the scenes, that’s Israel, are going to be pushing for the implementation.
It’s Turkey and Azerbaijan. The United States, and that’s Trump, really. I mean, I do not need to say the United States. It’s really Trump.
Well, I mean, Trump has shown how much his transactional approach to foreign policy is materializing into deals even with Russia on Ukraine, with the diesel deal, recent diesel deal and whatnot. So he’s very transactional. a price, and although the Armenian government says that they cannot sell their shares to anyone without our consent, although Armenian side has only 26 percent. I think if Trump gets a sweet deal with Azerbaijan and Turkey, he would not hesitate to sell
Asbed Bedrossian: Absolutely.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: it to them.
Asbed Bedrossian: Absolutely.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: So where are the negotiations right now? What is happening right now? told almost daily that there is progress, things are happening, and if you listen to Ararat Mirzoyan , trains and transport will start moving anytime soon. But you know, he’s been feeding us with the same stories on the Armenia-Turkey border, and nothing has happened. So we need to look into the real life.
Asbed Bedrossian: Honestly, Arthur, at this point, as of yesterday, I’ve been given a date of 2031 for a potential so-called formal peace.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, and I was given a date of 100 years peace.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s how I’m taking it.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Right?
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, great.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: So, yes, he can give you any date.
Hovik Manucharyan: I wonder if he has read Marquez at all. There are some very interesting ironies between his peace and the world that Márquez depicted.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Yes, he might look like, I forgot which number that was, but José Arcadio,
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: who was kind of wearing Napoleonic kind of pose and dictator of Macondo.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: But that aside, I mean,
Arthur G. Martirosyan: I really think that he has the ambition to become sort of father of the nation, that he’s creating this new nation, the real Armenia,
Asbed Bedrossian: The Fourth Republic.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: and a nation that is, well, you may call it, I mean, whatever. is he believes that he’s doing that and his recent kind of exercise in philosophy of history is remarkable in many ways because he said that history is not about the past history is about the present and the future the past is giving us just some lessons of what to do and what not to do but the history is present and you are creating it. It’s about happy and free Armenia. That’s the future.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: I mean, this is, I mean, I don’t know if people are really trying to understand what the meaning behind all of this is. First of all, it’s very eclectic. I mean, I don’t know if it’s him or his advisors, poorly digested German philosophers from Spengler and Heidegger. But the idea that the past is just something that is back somewhere, it should not really be a concern to us, really resonates with the positions of many diplomats traveling to Armenia in the last three decades and telling Armenian powers that be that, yes, forget about your history. is creating problems for you.
Right? It’s problems with Turkey, problems with Azerbaijan, and even problems with Georgians. So forget about that past.
Asbed Bedrossian: Arthur, you have to look at history to understand why he wants to dismiss the past.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Past is… Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s the only way to forget about his horrible mistakes and the catastrophic wars that he’s lost. That’s why he wants to look forward and not learn the lessons from our history.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, that’s one reason. You’re absolutely right. And that’s why it’s not happening. You know, if you were talking about history of medieval Armenia or whatever, the historians know that some of the stuff, even from primary sources, you know, how you corroborate, how you create that stuff, are difficult.
But the recent history, when the people who experienced that are still alive, you cannot deny them what has happened to them.
Asbed Bedrossian: Exactly.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Right? And that’s his problem. That’s his problem. The other problem is that we Armenians, unlike many other nations, yes, history and memory is part of any identity.
But for us, it plays almost kind of the dominant role, unlike with many others. Why? Because it’s our history, right? I mean, yes, diasporas existed even before the genocide, but the genocide kind of spread the entire nation all over, I mean, from Australia to the U.S., and we all know what happened. active memory that keeps us all Armenian.
And that’s exactly what he wants to get rid of. And I think that’s also part of their conversation with Turks and Azeris. Because Azeris and Turks would want diaspora to be, or its role, to be minimized to some financial solutions with Armenia, but not really the politicized diaspora that has been an issue, a problem get rid of that component. And that’s exactly what he’s doing.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: He also has his own grudge against the church, right, with the Srbazan movement and whatnot, but he also follows what the Azeri and the Turkish side want. Church remains the only institution that has a lot of strong connections with connecting the entire nation, and the nation for me is not just those who hold the Armenian passports, but the nation is everybody who considers him or herself to be Armenian. And that’s what they want to remove. And all of that is also coming, again, from the demands of Azeris and Turks as part of a peace that you want in the region.
So if you want to live in peace with Iran and become part run if possible, then you have to do these things that are obstacle on your way to be that. So that’s exactly what he’s doing. I mean, it’s obvious for me that no matter what he says about the church, the problems within the church, he is in no position to make such judgments about the church. The church has its own charter, its own canons, its own processes to deal with any issue inside the church.
And if he wants to be the reformer of the church, kind of a Martin Luther who wants to reform the Armenian church , I mean, he doesn’t understand the Armenian Apostolic Church. I mean, you cannot do that. If he wants to be a Protestant, he can join the, there is Armenian Protestant Church. join them and be there.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. Arthur, so the COP17 convention,
Hovik Manucharyan: I guess the UN convention for biodiversity is scheduled to start in Armenia, I think in a few days. Of course, there’s already a lot of activities.
Yerevan is overfilled with tourists. the Armenian government has canceled all schools for two weeks because our children are so smart that we don’t need that schooling and well I mean Armenia has a lot of environmental issues and I sort of add from one perspective I mean from a naive perspective you would say that it’s good that there is a focus on environmental issues and Armenia is at the center of it, but I wonder exactly how much Armenian leadership cares about its environment and what or whether this is all a show.
And just to give you one example, but one of the issues that Armenia has is Azerbaijan occupying and reportedly like burning down large portions of Armenia’s reserve. And when asked, they said it would be against the principles of the presidency to bring this up. Meanwhile, his counterpart last year at COP29 in Baku, Aliyev trashed Armenia, trashed all of our prisoners who are there. May they be free soon.
But he called them baby killers, war criminals, fascists. that name and he repeated the same just I think this week in the
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Yes.
Hovik Manucharyan: Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. So what are your thoughts about Armenia raising these issues in such conferences? Is it really against the principles of presidency? And what do you expect Armenia to gain in terms of environmental protections by hosting these events here this week and in the next few weeks.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Well, it’s PR, and I think they’re good at selling to their own constituencies that Armenia is on the map of the world. The media, international media, is going to be covering that this is happening in Armenia. All of this is a great development for Armenia and its recognition. well obviously the Armenian hoteliers and restaurateurs are going to gain from this because we get about 15 to 20 thousand bureaucrats from all over the world that are going to be dining, wining in Armenia for two weeks that’s pretty much it I mean expectations. Is the UN really functioning so that we could put any hopes on a conference run by the UN?
We can pretend that it does, but it does not. It does not. Had it really been operational and functioning, we would have seen very different moves at the UN. Yes, UN Secretary General is going to be in town.
It’s again going to be, you know, this information to create some information bubble around what’s happening. And that’s what they’re going to be doing. I don’t think there’s going to be much that Armenia is going to gain otherwise from this whole thing. Pashinyan’s constituency is going to be fed by this, you know, notion.
You talk to some of the support him, and they’d say, oh, see, this is great foreign policy. Never before such a big conference had been held in Armenia. This was unprecedented, the word that he really likes, unprecedented. Yes, in some ways, yes, but what do you gain from it?
What are the real gains for your national interests? Are you gaining something from it? or it’s just a place where they come and talk and then they leave and nothing really happens biodiversity, really? and as to real ecological issues we could see what happened with Amulsar I mean, the most vocal opponent of reopening Amulsar the mining at Amulsar of the team members of Pashinyan. Where is Lena Nazaryan now?
Hovik Manucharyan: Deputy Director of Civil Contract faction in the Armenian Parliament.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Exactly. So no longer she’s interested in that issue. She is no longer vocal about all hazards that are coming with that kind of mining. So my very short kind of conclusion about this conference is there’s nothing that the country, for its national interest, is going to gain.
Pashinyan is going to gain some PR locally people are going to be saying that his voters primarily are going to be saying that that’s a great achievement by him although I don’t see where the achievement really is
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: hosting a conference like that yes, countries have gone at significant expenditures to host these things maybe they have gained also as I said, from the presence of 20,000 people from abroad for two weeks. But what does it do to our national interest? Does it help us in our negotiations with Azerbaijan over environmental issues or even the issues related to the rivers in the region? Anything?
No, nothing. I mean, I haven’t heard these things even on the agenda of that conference. So it’s typical for this government to go after cheap PR and use it to its maximum, to its limit, so that it reaffirms the quasi-legitimacy as in power in Armenia.
Asbed Bedrossian: Okay. Arthur, I guess we can leave those topics there. We really appreciate your time and insight on our show. Thank you for hanging out with us.
Arthur G. Martirosyan: Yes, thank you for having me. I often think about the developments in Armenia at a kind of historical bifurcation point, right? I mean, so from here, we can go either into one direction which leads us to loss of our real sovereignty and nation state, and one that would allow us to stick to it. I don’t think we have crossed that point of no return, right?
So I’m hoping that things can still be managed if the power in Yerevan is going to be changed. Thank you for having me. Take care. Good night.
Asbed Bedrossian: Take care.
Hovik Manucharyan: Thank you.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s our show. The episode was recorded on October 16, 2026. Folks, we love it that you listen to our shows and you participate. We’ve seen a lot more conversations underneath our YouTube videos, so we encourage that.
We encourage you to like them, to share them with your circles, to hype them. but also don’t forget that you can support us financially go to podcasts.groong.org slash donate and become a sustaining member or give once twice three times whatever you like we can really use your help because we are building the next level of groong so on that let me tell you who we were talking with a little earlier Arthur G.
Asbed Bedrossian: Martirosyan is a senior consultant with CM Partners. In 1994, after graduating from Yale University, he joined Conflict Management Group and Harvard Negotiation Project and has since worked on conflicts in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, the Balkans, Africa, and Latin America. Pretty much everywhere in the world, he’s a very experienced conflict management and negotiations expert. Glad to have him. for more information, you can certainly go to our show notes, podcasts.groong.org slash episode number.
I’m Asbed Bedrossian.
Hovik Manucharyan: And I’m Hovik Manucharyan. Talk to you soon.
Asbed Bedrossian: We will talk to you soon.