Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hello, everyone.
Asbed Bedrossian: In this Conversations on Groong episode, we’re catching up with former Ambassador of Armenia and diplomat Dziunik Aghajanian to review the latest political developments in and around Armenia. Ambassador Aghajanian, so good to have you on the show again.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Me too. Thank you.
Hovik Manucharyan: Thank you, Dziunik.
Hovik Manucharyan: the Duma, the State Duma elections happened over the past three days. I guess September 21st was the conclusion where the CEC released the results. and five parties cleared the threshold with United Russia obtaining a wider majority in seats than in the previous time. Now, Western institutions have slammed the elections, that is to be expected. But in terms of formation of power and being able to organize power in Russia, what is your reaction to the Russian elections and what it means for the next, I guess, term for the State Duma and for Putin ’s leadership.
Dziunik Aghajanian: The result was expectable for people who do look at the situation without any rosy glasses and with their wishes being put as the desired outcome, and I’m referring to the West that was doing its ultimate to ruin the possibility of calm, transparent fair election process to take place and that is one of the reasons why we saw within the past two months extensive attacks on different parts of Russia and different civilian facilities which was aiming at increasing the discontent among the people and also increasing fear among those who would like to go and vote, participate in the election so that they would stay at home and this way they would kind of ruin the actual outcome of the elections, especially when for the first time the newly joined areas also participated in the election.
The fact that the ruling party of which President Putin is the representative gained the, I don’t know, overwhelming majority of the votes was also expected because it resembles the unified attitude. towards the situation in the country and its future. The expectations for the way the country should develop, its position in the world, its demands over its partners.
So everything in one package was represented by the vote that was given to the ruling party and actually also showing their support for President Putin’s policies and politics that he has been carrying on at least for the last five years during these very difficult times in the country. This is exactly what the West didn’t want to see, but it was expected outcome, as I said, for those who are looking at the situation with sober attitude and trying to analyze it with respect to the future architecture of the world that is being shaped and reshaped right now.
Hovik Manucharyan: And what does it mean for the conflict in Ukraine? Some say that Putin will have more of a mandate to make tough decisions, but I guess it could cut both ways. Putin could make more unilateral decisions in terms of furthering the war or accelerating the war. or I guess he may have more leverage now to also negotiate with Zelensky. What do you think would be the outcome in the Ukraine war ?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, he never lacked legitimacy to negotiate any peace deal if the deal resembled the expectations and the demand that the Russian side has put forward well before even the war started. Let’s remember December 2021 when the Russian government explained its position and requested that world leaders sit down and talk about their security issues and try to find out ways that will circumvent the possibility of any military action.
But let’s remember that the West was so, I would say, in bravado mode that they were thinking that by forcing Russia to get into military actions, they will be in a position simply to win the military situation and get into the deconstruction of this federation into different small pieces of which they could get control of very easily. That didn’t work out, but the demands of the Russian side never went anyway, because they are part of their security architecture and understanding.
No one said that NATO should stay where they are now and even try to expand, which we are seeing right now, even with regards to the development in the South Caucasus as well. No one said that Ukraine could become part of a military structure that is dreaming of dissolution of the Russian Federation. No one said that there will be any possibility of getting bases and even nuclear weapons very close to the Russian borders . And the Russian people will just sit there and say, okay, nothing will happen. just be in some kind of a very dreamy position and rely on the word of the Western countries that changes with every storm coming and going.
So I think the demands were articulated very clearly in December of 2021. Those who have forgotten could go back and see what was there. If the proposal on any peace agreement is structured in a way that takes care of those concerns, of course, Russia would be very willing to negotiate a peace deal. If not, the war will go on until they get to the position when there will be no Western party in a strong position to even push forward any deal.
So they will be forced into accepting the outcome of the military actions. As for these elections, there’s one more aspect that I would like to draw attention to. This brings new blood into the Duma, and these people are those that have gone through the military actions. So they will bring more nation-oriented positions and interests being the forefront for their future policies to be developed.
So this is kind of a generation change that we will see in the next five years. But this is the basis for that generation change. And this generation will simply base its feet in the country, in country’s interests, and its future place in the world. So anybody that is thinking that with the change of people in the governing positions, they will be in a better place for forcing them to accept something that otherwise would have been unacceptable, they are wrong. rethink their position.
Hovik Manucharyan: I do have actually a quick follow-up. There is a lot of talk about a succession plan for Putin and everyone was waiting for these elections. It seemed like analysts were saying that now that the elections are over, some of this will happen. But do you see a path where Putin can hand over power to someone else while this Ukrainian war is still ongoing, while there is still, I guess, in a large frame, there is still confrontation or potential future confrontation with the EU?
Dziunik Aghajanian: No, no, until 2028 will be in the position of the president of the country.
Hovik Manucharyan: Until 28, 2028.
Dziunik Aghajanian: 2028 is his term, yeah? 2028 is the next election, if I’m not mistaken. Up until then, we’ll see. If there is somebody who would, he would think that he’s safe enough to hand over the power, I mean, as you mentioned, the coming plans of the Western countries. And I’m saying Western, I’m not saying European, because the U.S. is also part of this plan.
Though Trump tries to play his part as a separate actor, but it’s the same global plan still in place. So the Western countries are planning for a bigger war to take place. he cannot leave his position until he’s safe enough to think that whoever takes the presidential seat will keep the country intact, that will not allow any harm to come to the country and Russia’s interests.
I cannot say right now what will happen because I know he was working, at least that was visible, he was working to find his right successor even during the last five years so people were coming and going we could see that there is some kind of a testing ground how they would behave how they would act what is their mindset what is their tolerance what is their endurance for different kind of pressures that are on an everyday basis coming to him and the country but I think we will be seeing more of the possible change closer to the election period and also if there is any peace deal with overall world architecture visible then he will be in a position to hand over the presidency to somebody else.
But otherwise, I think we will see him again putting his candidacy for the election.
Asbed Bedrossian: Ambassador, what are the names in the hat?
Dziunik Aghajanian: It’s still too early to say, but I think that’s what we are seeing now. That’s what will be coming. Sorry.
Asbed Bedrossian: What are the names in the hat these days for succession? For example, Dmitry Medvedev became president for about four years, but who?
Dziunik Aghajanian: I don’t think there are enough. No, I don’t think Medvedev is a candidate. I think there are people that are being tested. They are not very visible in the public because they could be easily harmed.
I think there is some kind of a process going internally. they are being tasked with certain responsibilities and I think we will see that more first with the composition of this Duma because there are people who I don’t know we will see who is taking up the seat and secondly with the possible changes in the government especially in the military field that’s something that is lot of changes and I think there is something that is well the ranks are being cleared of those that are weakening the system so we will see how it goes, it’s too early to say but within the next several months we will see the signs of those that could be considered as potential candidates but I don’t think we will hear the name anytime close to the period he will be ready to hand over.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s very interesting because it seems like 2028 is shaping up to be a fairly big year. I mean, we have elections in the United States as well.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Trump is going to be probably leaving the scene. So we’re thinking about we, the United States, are also thinking about succession,
Dziunik Aghajanian: I think you’re already preparing for that.
Asbed Bedrossian: both on the Democratic and Republican side. Yeah, absolutely.
Dziunik Aghajanian: I think you’re already also mentally you’re already preparing for that.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah. So, Ambassador, of course, we have a lot of questions about Russia and Armenia following this election in Russia. But let’s leave that for just a moment. Let’s finish up our Middle East section also, because we have more than just Ukraine and Gaza going on.
A lot of people are not particularly tuned into another significant conflict, which is going on in Yemen, where the Houthis have struck Riyadh. in Saudi Arabia on Saturday for the first time since I think this summer when escalations started happening. They’ve also attacked Aramco facilities. This is a huge Saudi Arabian oil company.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: And yeah, yeah. And they’ve basically blocked a number of straits in the Red Sea. There is the Bab el-Mandeb choke point strait, and that’s essentially blocking Saudi oil flow through the Red Sea. Where is this conflict headed?
Do you see a path to de-escalation or are we going to see further if things are getting worse?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, things will get worse, much, much worse than we can even imagine. This is what happened with the Houthis taking over, as you rightfully mentioned, the choke point in Bab el-Mandeb, is part of the whole plan of defense against the U.S. plans of trying to take full control of the whole region and break down all resistance that exists there to their hegemony. So this is part of this preparation plan. Of course, Iran and all these, I would say, resistance actors are preparing for the worst to come, and that will be starting to happen.
I was thinking the U.S. is planning for the end of the year, the earliest, and beginning of next year, the latest. But I think with what happened in August, plans are being pushed towards more beginning of next year. So they are preparing for a new and much bigger scale attack with possible ground attack organized as part of that. And that’s why we’re seeing now also these military exercises next to our borders with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan being part of it in the Caspian.
So we will see more of those things being prepared for the upcoming ground attack. And also that is one of the reasons that we see both the Houthis attacking Saudi facilities so that they will not be in a position to support the U.S. plans and also Iranians attacking the Iraqi regions where the U.S. has a stronghold. region blowing up, I would say, and I hope that it won’t be long and if that lasts for a long period of time, then the world is in chaos and that will spread to all other regions as well and that will engulf South Caucasus as well.
Asbed Bedrossian: You mentioned the military exercises in and around the Iranian northern front. What are the risks for Armenia?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, Armenia will be just stampeded over because according to the initial plans, and I think the same plan is still in place because that’s why they rushed into this TRIPP project, In fact, the south of Armenia was supposed to be used for the transportation of weaponry and personnel for the attack from the northern part from the occupied Artsakh territories that became part of Azerbaijan.
Interestingly enough, Aliyev , during one of his last interviews, spoke about their plans during the 2020 war to occupy the so-called Meghri Corridor, the Zangezur Corridor , because that was part of the plan. during the war to occupy it and then blame it on the Armenian soldiers that they were not in a position to defend it. So then we have to work out in diplomatic ways to bring back our territories. So this is what is happening.
Luckily enough, our soldiers did not allow those plans to fulfill to the maximum of their expectations. is still there, that’s why they first pushed away the Russian proposals of opening all of the communications in the region and then having the Russian control over the communication from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan over Armenia, and then replaced it easily with this TRIPP project. The plan is there, according to this plan, Turkey and Azerbaijan have to participate in the ground attack.
But for their commitment to participate in this ground attack, Turkey and Azerbaijan are putting on more and more demands for the opening of the border with Turkey. Turkey is requesting, as you have seen and heard on multiple occasions, that Armenia fulfills all Azerbaijani demands.
And then now part of those demands are the so-called exclaves or enclaves in Armenia, which have no legal ground, which have never been part of Azerbaijan. and according to the delineation and demarcation that was carried out from 1984 to 1988 and proper documents were signed between the Armenian SSR and the Azerbaijani SSR these are entirely part of Armenia so there is no legal ground
Dziunik Aghajanian: for this Also, Azerbaijan will be pushing forward for the so-called 300,000 Azerbaijanis to come back to Armenia, again, with no legal grounds, because first, there were no such numbers living in Armenia ever. Secondly, these people left Armenia with all their properties intact with no harm caused to them. And also, not only, well, about 85% of their
Asbed Bedrossian: I believe their real estate was also compensated.
Dziunik Aghajanian: houses or apartments were exchanged or sold before they left. And this 15% that was not exchanged was compensated with 72 million rubles at the time by the Armenian SSR. so they cannot put any claim also because during the Soviet time you didn’t have any ownership rights you were just given the right to live in those apartments and houses for an extended period of time and once you changed your residency place you lost any rights that you had for your former place of residence.
So there is no legal ground for any kind of request except for political pressure and demands coming from Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey for the fulfillment of their commitments that they have according to those global plans.
Asbed Bedrossian: Ambassador, I want to ask you about these exclaves and the enclaves issue.
Asbed Bedrossian: Is this basically a land grab on the part of Azerbaijan because of the defeat of Armenia in 2020 and 2022 and 2023? Or does this issue at all tie into the surrounding and attacking of Iran? Is there value to any of these enclaves in the issue of surrounding Iran from the north?
Dziunik Aghajanian: No, there is no value to that, and this is a land grab, and also it has nothing to do with the defeat in 2020 or later on. It is just taking advantage of this capitulative
Asbed Bedrossian: Right. Advantage of a weak leader on Pashinyan.
Dziunik Aghajanian: attitude from our current government and the person sitting on top of it, simply because I think he has commitments and he cannot escape from those commitments. And in order to survive, he’s giving everything that he’s being told to do so. Otherwise, he could have easily cheated on these people as well as he does on everything else. But these areas have no leverage. which, of course, the Zangezur, and you could say, might be used for the Russian military to easily get to the south to support Iran, but there are other ways for Russia to get its military support to Iran without even crossing any territory, and the Caspian is one of those.
So we can only consider this as taking advantage of the group sitting on top of our country and the policies that they are carrying out right now, give everything in order to survive. Just for them, not the country’s survival.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. Ambassador, the Russian military base, you know, it took everyone, I think, all the analysts by surprise when it was mentioned by Putin after the Bishkek summit. Why is it being played out publicly in front of everyone? I mean, I think many, it would be very easy to guess that this would be a card that Armenia plays in trying to remove the remaining sort of nodes of power that Russia has in the South Caucasus.
But why did Putin himself bring this up? sides essentially are saying that this base is not important for us. and we can leave if you want us to. Russia is saying we can leave if you want us to. Armenia is saying it’s not important for us. You can leave if you want to.
But no one is saying, you know, I’m going to go or Armenia is not saying please leave. Why are they dancing around this issue? And when I say Armenia, of course, I mean the Pashinyan regime. Who needs it more?
And what is behind all of this high stakes public bargaining? Thank you.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, of course, we needed definitely, otherwise we wouldn’t have asked them to stay even in 1995 when Russians were ready to leave and we asked them to stay and we gave them the rights of using the base without any payment for the rent. So even we are covering half of their expenses because they were the ones that were providing security for Armenia as part of the overall security structure that we had against Turkey. This is exactly why the base was there.
It has never been considered as part of the security structure for the protection of Nagorno-Karabakh because, as you know, officially we never recognized Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence. and as a result also never became part of the overall structure that could fall either within the Collective Security Treaty Organization responsibilities or even bilateral Russia -Armenia responsibilities officially.
So is definitely still to be considered despite the fact that Pashinyan announces Turkey as our dearest friend and the one that is just dreaming of having a very prosperous Armenia in its neighborhood, which is just a joke, historically, legally, militarily, whatever you consider. But let’s be honest, Russia is not going to get out of this region because it’s part of its north-south communication.
Otherwise, it wouldn’t have come up with the Eurasian Economic Union having Iran and free trade agreement being agreed within the union, but also as part of the possibility to get away from all the communication lines being controlled by Western countries. Of course, the Western countries, Europe and the US, are just dreaming of having South Caucasus without any Russian presence, and that’s a push, that’s a pressure coming from the European partners. But there’s another aspect that we have to look into, and that explains why Putin announced about the possibility of taking out the base if it is of no need to us.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Thing is that Armenian side, with its current government, has been manipulating with the Russian presence, trying to get them engaged in military actions. First in Nagorno-Karabakh when they had the peacekeepers there. Then when it didn’t work in 22, they kind of organized these Jermuk events that Armenia’s proper territories will be attacked so that under the Collective Security Treaty, they would have military operation in Armenia, which will give the possibility for the second front against Russia to be opened.
Russians did not react the way the Armenian government and the people who came up with this plan envisaged it to happen. and that’s why they were very disappointed to see that some of our territories were occupied by Azerbaijan without any political results that they were expecting from such an action to happen.
Hovik Manucharyan: Can I just take a pause here?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: I think to understand what you’re saying, essentially, Armenia, in collusion with Azerbaijan-Turkey, has been desperately trying to, Armenia, I mean, Pashinyan, has been desperately trying to open a second front with Russia. and the events in Jermuk, where we don’t even, they didn’t even publish the names of the dead
Dziunik Aghajanian: Nope.
Hovik Manucharyan: so many years after. Do you believe that this was also, Armenia was in on it, and this was a deliberate step in that?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Yes, it was orchestrated, but it was orchestrated by the Western countries, U.S. part of that, and together with both Azerbaijan and our government.
This was orchestrated, and it came at exactly the time when Russia, in the Russia-Ukraine war, was at its weakest. and as you remember during the last two years the Georgian government as well as government representatives also disclosed the information that they were also being pushed to open up a second front against Russia exactly at that time so this was part of that plan to have a second front opened against Russia and by the opening of this front all the hot spots around the belly Russia’s belly have been immediately put into action from Baltic Sea up until Japan. And that would have been simply blown up the Russian state.
With the same understanding, they operated later on. Also in 2023, we saw what happened to Artsakh. and later on we saw that they were trying to get the Russian military that were standing on the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line. There were 70 points where Russian soldiers were put simply to keep the sides apart and when last year you might remember, I think it was in May after the meeting with Putin, the Russian side announced that they are ready to take them out from there because they understood that they will be manipulated again into some kind of a military action.
So this is why I think Putin announced about their readiness to take the base out simply to close this possible discussion. of coming up with some kind of a plan, getting Armenia’s territory into some kind of an aggressive state and then demanding Russian side on the basis of the bilateral defense agreement to participate in the defense of Armenia, knowing that this government plays simply a puppet role in the hands of Western countries.
Asbed Bedrossian: Ambassador, I want to follow up on the logical thread of what you said about when they came into Jermuk, it was an operation designed to actually instigate Russia into a second front, and they didn’t. Knowing that they would not, why would Azerbaijan stop at Jermuk and not just take whatever they wanted? Is there any kind of an agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia as to what the
Dziunik Aghajanian: No.
Asbed Bedrossian: border actually is?
Dziunik Aghajanian: They stopped. Actually, Azerbaijan was trying even to go forward and open up this corridor at the narrowest point that we have there, from Jermuk up until Nakhijevan.
Asbed Bedrossian: There were something like 37 kilometers, I think, from Nakhijevan.
Dziunik Aghajanian: I think it’s less than that. It’s like 27 kilometers. And now they have come closer about seven kilometers. They are in very strategic positions now.
They wouldn’t because there was reinforcement at Jermuk and simply the army fought back. The army did not, against the commands that they had, the army fought back and pushed the Azerbaijani side back.
Asbed Bedrossian: Against the commands that they had from Pashinyan’s government.
Dziunik Aghajanian: and apparently against the desires to have some kind of a situation where the Russians would be forced to engage. And as you remember, then later on they were blaming that the Collective Security Treaty Organization did not come to their defense and did not bring in the military to protect Armenia against the responsibilities that they had under the CSTO agreement. But the fact is that the Russians, simply understanding what is being played out, did not swallow this pill, though they had to take the blow to their prestige on the actual outcome of the situation.
But that was orchestrated, And the main reason for that was to bring under the Collective Security Treaty Organization Russian participation in the military action. and afterwards to take this particular situation and to use this particular situation to push Armenia outside of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and bringing the pro-NATO forces into the region, which we saw under this binocular team that came from the European Union to guard our borders.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, so who put up the resistance at Jermuk? Was it Armenian forces?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: And were they backed by CSTO, not CSTO, Russian forces from the base?
Dziunik Aghajanian: No. No. No. They were the Armenian forces.
Well, there is a lot of discussion, a lot of talk about the support that the Russians gave at the time. But they don’t come out openly to state that. I think because of political reasons, they don’t open up all the information. But according to different military experts, Russians did support without getting themselves engaged militarily in the operation.
They supported our army without themselves participating in the fight, which was the total goal of the whole operation.
Asbed Bedrossian: Okay, well, I’m just thinking,
Dziunik Aghajanian: So this is the same, the same can
Asbed Bedrossian: why didn’t they just continue and kick them out entirely out of Armenian territory?
Dziunik Aghajanian: It was stopped. It was stopped. Simply according to… They saw that the plan is not working and they simply stopped.
Of course, probably… No, but Azerbaijan had very big losses at the time, even during those two days. They had, I think, more losses than even our people did, despite the fact that most of our losses were, as a result of the bombardment of the military personnel that were asleep at the time. They were not on the line of action.
They were just in the barracks and where these young guys were simply gone to sleep during the night.
Asbed Bedrossian: Okay, Ambassador, one final question in this base issue. Times have changed. Okay, obviously the politics of the region, the geopolitics of the region have changed. At this point in time, who would you say this base is most important to?
Is it Armenia or is it Russia?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, I can consider it from the Armenian side. It is important for us, definitely. It keeps Turkey at bay and gives some kind of understanding that we’re not entirely alone. If the base is taken out, then we will be totally alone.
And given the policy of the current government simply to kill our army in any way possible, with even a recent bill that is being put forward, we can discuss it, it even furthers the chances of having no army at all or some kind of a semblance of it just having the name without the content. then we can say that at least this gives some kind of a feeling of security that we have, that there is, despite the fact that we have tensions among Armenia and Russia, but still this kind of a support is still there.
Asbed Bedrossian: So, we’ve been talking about the 102nd base in Gyumri as a tension between Armenia
Asbed Bedrossian: and Russia. There’s also the issue of the railroad concessions that’s going on. And Pashinyan has ramped up his campaign to confiscate properties of illicit origin. He says it’s a judicial process aimed at recovering $1 to $2 billion in assets accumulated by former officials and other individuals.
And of course, these individuals, allegedly, of course,
Dziunik Aghajanian: Allegedly.
Asbed Bedrossian: these individuals very often happen to have some kind of a, let’s say, dual citizenship between Armenia and Russia, or they have business, vast businesses in Russia, or they are politicians who are not against having a good relationship between Armenia and Russia. So we’re talking about Gagik Khachatryan, Gagik Tsarukyan. He’s attacked Robert Kocharyan ’s family. I’m not even going to go in all the polemics that he said in the parliament this past week about the Kocharyan family.
Anyway, the issue has acquired a second dimension. We’re thinking about it as basically a third front that Pashinyan has opened domestically in the de-Russification that he’s leading in the country. What do you think about this?
Dziunik Aghajanian: would separate Gagik Khachatryan from the rest because the rest are definitely opposition leaders and he’s clearing up the field to have it as actually he’s beheading, trying to behead the possible opposition protests once he goes forward with his plans that steps, The row of steps that are in front of him that will be just killing our state step by step. So Gagik Khachatryan is a different case, though the way they treat him is just disastrous and it’s just a total example of torture, which I think will be considered in the coming reports as part of the illegal action against a person who is being persecuted.
With the rest, I would state that in most of the cases, the cases have very little to be discussed and they are simply fabricated in order to keep them in prison and away from the political field or the possibility of having them generate, resent and generate protests once certain steps are taken. The de-Russification or trying to depict Russia as the total evil, it’s not a news in the Western politics. They have been playing this card for the last 20 years. successfully have washed the brains of people in many countries.
Ukraine is the ultimate example of the result of such actions, and we see a very prosperous, beautiful, rich country being devastated and put into ruins, and millions of people killed for the sake of the Western plans to further their
Asbed Bedrossian: Look at prosperous Ukraine.
Dziunik Aghajanian: hegemony. Yeah, very prosperous, I would say, in brackets. It’s just a pity. It’s just a pity.
I remember my father describing Ukraine, saying that it’s one of the richest countries in the world. If you put your finger into the ground, it will start blossoming.
Asbed Bedrossian: Haha.
Dziunik Aghajanian: So, and now, yeah, just to show how fertile the ground is and how prosperous this country can be. And in the USSR, it was one of the richest countries among the republics. And see what has happened to Ukraine now and what will be the end of it. The same with Moldova, the same with Georgia.
See what happened, what kind of promises they gave to Georgia and what was the result. we will see this policy being carried out. It hasn’t started today. It has gone through different waves. This is another wave, but I think we have come to the part when it will be hurting the people in Armenia more, actually killing our budget.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, I think it’s actually already doing that,
Dziunik Aghajanian: So I don’t know…
Asbed Bedrossian: but there’s a certain layer that is doing well under Pashinyan,
Dziunik Aghajanian: It has started to do that, but I think, yeah,
Asbed Bedrossian: and that’s where the spin is.
Dziunik Aghajanian: once you will feel the actual impact only closer to the end of the year when people will be counting their losses and what they are left with.
Asbed Bedrossian: But Ambassador, you said, you know, people will see the crimes against, for example, Gagik Khachatryan and things like that. But what can happen here with the judicial system, the police system,
Dziunik Aghajanian: There is no judicial system.
Asbed Bedrossian: everything under one person? Yeah, I mean, what do you expect?
Dziunik Aghajanian: There is no judicial system left. There is no judicial system left. There are just, I think you can count these fair judges in the fingers of your hand only, huh? 75% of the judges are appointed by this government and by this political group. and you see simply the orders coming from above and they’re being fulfilled no matter what kind of a legal case you have in front of you. Just have a look at the case that was put forward against the Catholicos.
It’s just, I mean, if it wasn’t so serious, I would say it’s a joke. this is something that you can describe in any legal case as a taboo as nothing that you can, in this particular case you can take as an example you can take as an example how not to judge somebody how not to create a legal case this can be a very negative example of something that has been put in the legal system to be considered even against the Council of Europe decisions and clear court decisions in Europe. So this is something that we will see in bigger scales, because the West has tapped into the last chapter of its plans.
Unfortunately, it will bring only devastation to people, not only in my country, but also in my region, in the world, also in Western countries and the US as well. And I hope that all this suffering will force people to ask questions and by asking questions they will come to realization that they have been manipulated into very disastrous situation that if not stopped will bring total chaos to the world. But I think the realization is coming gradually and we see the first signs in Germany, not the first signs, but the signs we see in Germany, though it will take time for the overall political landscape to change into sober minds.
But I think in the coming year with the elections going on in many of the countries, we will see this more alertness and more real understanding of the manipulation that I have been undergoing for years, if not decades, make force people to vote for their interests and for their survival.
Hovik Manucharyan: Ambassador, you being a former diplomat, I think this is a good question for us to ask to you. So, we’ve covered Hikmet Hajiyev’s genocide tour of occupied Artsakh, Gandzasar and all the other areas. and, you know, EU diplomats, Western diplomats giggling at his horrible, you know, hateful jokes. And we’ve seen the reaction and horror from Armenian society as well.
Now, following this news, the Armenian, Azerbaijani Armenian civil society Track II diplomacy. essentially it seems to have been put on hold and not by the Armenian side who should be sort of walking out of any process it was put on hold by the Azerbaijanis who cancelled their visit to Yerevan which was supposed to happen I think today or tomorrow now after this incident, after not Pashinyan, all the Pashinyan regime officials remained silent but because the opposition expressed their disgust at what was going on Aliyev and Azerbaijanis have increased their hateful rhetoric against Armenians uh there is news now that uh Azerbaijan may seek legal action against Armenia to return khachkars and other Armenian Christian artifacts that Armenians rescued from the war i mean if you’ve seen imagery of the war we’ve seen Azerbaijani soldiers shooting at uh khachkars we’ve seen Aliyev himself ordering the destruction of Armenian writing on the sides of these ancient monasteries and of course who could forget the destruction of the medieval cemetery of Jugha, the Jugha cemetery
Dziunik Aghajanian: In 2005.
Hovik Manucharyan: 2000
Dziunik Aghajanian: Five.
Hovik Manucharyan: was it 2005?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Yes.
Hovik Manucharyan: yeah so Aliyev
Dziunik Aghajanian: The last effort was in 2005.
Hovik Manucharyan: yeah Yeah.
Dziunik Aghajanian: That was even criticized by the UN Commission for the Protection of Heritage. And it was under this current Azerbaijani president.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, and let’s also, I want to also, I mean, we can go on, but I also do want to mention one thing. Former foreign minister of Azerbaijan, Zulfugarov, and he actually used very rude words. and he actually used very rude words. I think he used the word “kozyol”, meaning goat. Hey goat, stop swimming in our lake.
And, you know.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, in English, it’s a different one, starting with A.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah. So what does this mean for this so-called durable peace? Is there such a thing? And why is this happening right now?
I mean, it seems like at least the Azerbaijanis have all they want. Why are they now escalating? And what does this mean for Bashkend?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, as I explained, the current Armenian government representatives have commitments against Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan is taking advantage of the situation to pressure over him to go forward and fulfill those demands.
They are trying, on the other hand, to put down the Armenian public, kind of break our spirit by bringing up this kind of issues. but I don’t think it’s working anymore I think we have already hit the bottom and we have started to come out of this understanding of hopelessness and trying to resist on the public level giving no hope that the government will act in any way that will be defensive of our interests and supportive of our country First, they have no right and no ownership rights over any Armenian khachkar or any Armenian heritage.
This is just simple rhetoric that they are being trumpeting over our own public in order to emotionally make it very painful for us. secondly they are just reminding these people sitting in the government of their promises but I don’t think that people are swallowing these pills anymore they are just regurgitating those things emotionally and I think over the time and this time is not far away that will turn into certain actions solutions.
Hovik Manucharyan: Dziunik, I know that we previously have said that we’ve asked you about the
Hovik Manucharyan: strategy of the Armenian opposition and their decision to take up their mandates. but honestly i am not seeing any predicates for the opposition to um start up a mass movement i mean any of these things that have happened already whether it’s the Tigranashen uh Pashinyan’s talk about handing over, using Azerbaijani fake place names for it, or this incident with the Gandzasar genocide tour, should have been triggers to get people on the street to protest. Are we going to see another five years where the opposition just takes notes and asks very tough questions in parliament without any serious action?
Dziunik Aghajanian: No, I don’t think it will last that much. There is one thing I want to mention. Karki is not an Azerbaijani name. It’s just an Azerbaijani pronouncement of a former Armenian name.
Hovik Manucharyan: Karamian.
Dziunik Aghajanian: The same way Zangezur is not an Azerbaijani name. It’s just simply they are trying to use it’s an Armenian name. So there are multiple occasions when they are trying to, well, when they cannot pronounce the proper Armenian name, they mispronounce it and then try to present ownership of the place.
Asbed Bedrossian: Can I add one to that?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Nakhichevan is not a name either.
Dziunik Aghajanian: No, Nakhichevan, and yeah, the same, mispronouncement, yeah, mispronouncement of the
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s a fake misunderstanding of Nakhichevan.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Armenian name, which is of biblical age.
Asbed Bedrossian: Right.
Dziunik Aghajanian: So, there are so many of those names. So, also, by using it, the people are, well, those who are using this kind of names, they are trying to put salt on our open wound. But I think also by explaining the public and explaining the people that they have no right of any claim over any Armenian territory, especially legally, they cannot do that under any jurisdiction. I cannot do that because first, Azerbaijan was not in existence about 100 years ago, and it is very nicely articulated in the League of Nations documents.
So this is something that I think sometimes we have to remind our neighbors, exact explanation of who they are and how they came to being as a political entity. but coming back to your question about opposition I think there are certain things that have saved us historically and one of those things is that no one can chart down exactly when Armenian people will go out and protest and then bring down any government this is something that nobody can calculate Neither the opposition. The opposition has to be ready when the public shows it to lead it and lead it properly.
And in the past years, we have seen that when people have come out to the street, the opposition was not ready for that, and then the protest went away. So this is something that they have to be ready. And also, the same understanding is with the people sitting in the government. They cannot touch it.
They cannot understand the public emotions properly. They are trying to manipulate it, but they cannot understand it properly. That’s why they are reluctant in both putting the so-called new constitution forward for the adoption or even going forward with their promises of giving Tigranashen to Azerbaijan, which they have no right to do so, or even the areas that they have promised under the name Enclaves in Tavush region to go forward and under even the guise of delineation to pass it to Azerbaijan. So I think this is something that is holding them back, and I hope it holds them back for a long time.
But why am I saying they will not stay there for the full term?
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, uh,
Dziunik Aghajanian: Because the changes that I described in both our southern neighbor in Middle East and also with Russia-Ukraine developments, they are changing the atmosphere, the expectation, the political landscape, on everyday basis. So that will force changes also in Armenia and this government will not last the full term. But I hope we don’t have any more losses. So we keep at least what we have right now without any more losses.
Asbed Bedrossian: Ambassador, I’m a little discouraged by some of the stuff that I’ve heard, not just here, I’m talking about from talking to people. You’re saying that the opposition has to see when the people are ready. In reality, I think that the opposition has to prep the people. You can’t lead from the backseat.
You have to lead if you have a vision of where you’re going. We’ve had a situation for years now where enclaves are given and they don’t have the right to do that. they steal the vote and they don’t have the right to do that. At what point is somebody going to stand up and say, this is not right and I want 100,000 people on the streets until the government comes in?
Dziunik Aghajanian: I fully agree that the…
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s not happening. Do we have the right opposition and the right energy for leadership against this government? I’m not sure we do right now.
Dziunik Aghajanian: I fully agree that the opposition has to work behind the scenes to get people ready when they think the time is right for the protests and the protests with the actual result that we’re expecting it to happen. but it’s kind of difficult to force people to go out into the streets and this is something that you have to weigh properly because every time we have this opposition protest then as they say the steam is released and then to get it back takes time and the government and those who are charting these global plans, they are taking advantage of the situation.
Asbed Bedrossian: Right.
Dziunik Aghajanian: And then we are facing with losses. The same happened in 22, the same happened in 23, the same happened in 24 and in 25. So we have to be very careful with this. And also the elections were kind of release of the steam.
So I fully agree that the opposition cannot just simply sit and wait for the time to be arrived. They have to work to make the time right. But also, yes.
Asbed Bedrossian: Absolutely. And the times have changed. I mean, we have a situation of massive surveillance, of the massive use of misuse of judiciary with the arrests and the pretrial detentions until the times, like you said, the steam is released and then those people can go back to their lives. this is a misuse of government and I’m not sure at what point the people will stand but the opposition
Dziunik Aghajanian: No, this is not a simple misuse.
Asbed Bedrossian: has to lead them there
Dziunik Aghajanian: This is actually brutal gross violation of constitutional order.
Asbed Bedrossian: Gross Abuse
Dziunik Aghajanian: It’s a disaster. And it’s something that we have worked for decades to advance certain systems in our country. It is not even back to 90s. I don’t know where else it is now.
We haven’t had certain cases even in the 90s in the worst time that we had with regard to rule of law or democracy. So this is disaster. And as I said, I fully agree that the opposition has to work. They have to work behind the scenes.
They have to work to come up with the right plans. So the next time when the situation is ripe and they ask people to come out the streets, then we have the right outcome that all of us expect to have. So this is something it’s not easy. I have talked to many of them and saying that this is not even daily work.
It’s just minute by minute work that has to be done. and explaining people the devastating situation that we are in, the existential threat that our state is in, our country is in, and we as a nation are in. So this is something that has to be explained to every single person in our country, no matter in which corner he or she lives. So this is a very hard work. Some of them even have the idea how to do that, but I think the understanding of the necessity of such work is already within most of them.
So this is also the positive side of it. But of course, sometimes we can plan, but the things develop at such an unexpected speed that you have to be ready to lead the flow when the time comes or when the flow goes out into the street. And that’s the part that we, as Armenians, we have seen in our history on multiple occasions. Go back to 1918, when people went out and helped to push the Turkish army back.
So also in Karabakh War, nobody expected us to win the war, but it was the people’s support all over the world as well that helped us to
Asbed Bedrossian: Hmm.
Dziunik Aghajanian: overcome it victorious, but regretfully we created such a disaster amongst ourselves that was ready to serve others’ interests rather than his own people’s.
Hovik Manucharyan: Wow. I can’t believe how time flies when we’re talking to you, Dziunik. Thank you so much for joining us
Dziunik Aghajanian: Welcome.
Hovik Manucharyan: today, and we look forward already to our next discussion.
Asbed Bedrossian: Thank you.
Dziunik Aghajanian: I hope next time we come up with more positive news. Though my analysis gives a totally different expectation.
Hovik Manucharyan: Bum, bum.
Asbed Bedrossian: Heh heh heh.
Hovik Manucharyan: From your mouth to God’s ears, as they say, but
Asbed Bedrossian: Heh heh.
Hovik Manucharyan: yes, we have to be more realistic.
Dziunik Aghajanian: I hope I’m wrong in this analysis.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s our show.
Asbed Bedrossian: This episode was recorded on September 23, 2026. We’ve been talking with Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian. She has served Armenia through the ranks of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and most recently as a diplomat as Armenia’s ambassador to such countries as the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Indonesia. She received her education at Yerevan State University, Columbia University in New York, and Uppsala University in Sweden.
Of course, for more information, podcasts.groong.org slash episode number. Click on the links and check people out.
Hovik Manucharyan: I’m loving these great discussions. I hope you guys are as well.
Hovik Manucharyan: I have to say, though, I am a little bit underwhelmed by the number of donations we have received over the last few months. It used to be more, and we do have long-term recurring donations. So thank you for all those who have done their share.
Asbed Bedrossian: We really appreciate that. Yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: yeah but if you can at all uh you know uh subscribe uh on a monthly basis please do it helps us a lot we’re um back in the red in terms of our budget and our budget has increased because we have more needs to do um you know to to to do cloud expenses and all expenses that go into producing this podcast and And of course, comment and like and share. And thank you for all those who have already done all of the above. If you haven’t, it just takes a few minutes or a few seconds. Thank you very much and have a nice day.
I’m Hovik Manucharyan.
Asbed Bedrossian: I’m Asbed Bedrossian and we’ll talk to you soon.