Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hello, everyone. Thanks for joining us for this Conversations on Groong episode. We have one of our most popular guests today, former Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian joins us. We want to discuss some of the geopolitical developments surrounding Armenia and some of the political developments inside Armenia.
Ambassador Aghajanian, welcome to the Groong podcast.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Good evening, everybody. Thank you.
Hovik Manucharyan: Thank you for joining us today.
Hovik Manucharyan: So Dziunik, let’s begin from our region and we’ll come back to Armenia at the end. Ten days after Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a joint defense pact in Mecca, Donald Trump effectively endorsed the deal, saying he doesn’t mind if Middle East powers find ways to defend themselves. There’s a lot of concern in terms of the nature of this pact, so we wanted you to help us break it down. What is your read on this agreement by three allies of the US, Turkey being a NATO member and the rest not?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, you know, I have heard different opinions on this Mecca agreement, some very eagerly trying to explain it as But I have an awkward feeling that this is probably a double-sided sword. On one side, you might think that these three countries are getting together in order to come up with some kind of a new forward-looking architecture for their security. But I see, I’m sorry to say, I see US ears behind the scene and I’m more inclined to look at it as an anti-Iranian action, trying to separate Pakistan and Saudi Arabia from their support of Iran in this particular game, I would call it, because we see different roles being played out.
And as you rightfully mentioned, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been allies to US for decades. Turkey is a NATO member and definitely cannot dance away from its responsibilities as well as they fully understand that they have been grown into a NATO arrow that is targeting both the Russian interests and the Middle Eastern interests and forwarding or pushing the Western agenda in those directions. So I have this awkward feeling that this is kind of a game being played out in order to create an auxiliary structure that will be supportive of U.S. interests in the region because they see these Abraham Accords are going nowhere.
U.S. attack on Iran showed that U.S. is not capable of defeating Iran and Iranian people and their plans of restructuring Middle East and actually Deconstructing Iran did not go anywhere. It vice versa created situation when the people came together and stood in support of their government. So let’s look at what they are going to do. But I have this awkward feeling that this is something created by the U.S. for the purposes of pushing their own interests against Iran.
Hovik Manucharyan: Dziunik, that’s a very interesting train of thought. And I tend to sort of agree with it. But, you know, we know that essentially in the Middle East until now, the most favored nation status belong to Israel in terms of the U.S. partnership. Now, how does this affect the power balance in the Middle East as far as Israel is concerned?
Doesn’t it demote its role in the Middle East? What could you tell us about that? You said it’s geared against Iran. Is this also in preparation for…
Could we eventually see Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan fighting against Iran on behalf of the US?
Dziunik Aghajanian: I think it is in the US-Israeli plans and it was in the US-Israeli plans. But it didn’t play out the way they envisaged it to work during both the 12-day war and the 40-day war this year. You mentioned Israel. Israel has gone nowhere.
Its reputation is downgraded and given the upcoming elections in the US, I don’t think there will be much of a talk about support to Israel, knowing that the public opinion is totally against and it’s growing disappointment against the US support of, I would say, unequivocal support of whatever the Israeli government is doing. I think it’s a future oriented, but not that far future. We’re talking about probably several months to a year future oriented action because the US would love to have all of the Iran neighbors participate in the ground operation. And this is in preparation for that, I assume.
Hovik Manucharyan: Okay, that’s clear to me now. I am scared to ask this question, but is Armenia doing anything to prepare for any, you know, how does this alliance affect Armenia? Because there were some rumors that Azerbaijan may be a candidate to join this alliance as well. Do you think that will materialize?
And what are the threats to Armenia?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, I don’t think Azerbaijan would join this alliance. If it is an alliance, in fact, we have to Live up to that and see what comes out of it. I think that Azerbaijan has its own role in that and it cannot get away from that. So with the US and most of the Western I would say Deep State has its own leverages on Aliyev, so he cannot escape his own commitments.
As for Armenia, regretfully, TRIPP is part of this project and Armenia is artificially put into this situation when It will become part of the structure that is being created against Iran. So I hope that situation would develop to a different direction and we would somehow escape being targeted as a result of the irresponsible actions from our government. But I think the plan is to have this TRIPP, or as the Turkish-Azerbaijan side calls it, Zangezur Corridor , as part of the ground attack tactics that is being developed right now by the U.S. against Iran.
Asbed Bedrossian: You see this alliance primarily as an anti-Iran alliance. Are there any other modalities to it? Is it possible that there’s a Sunni versus Shia aspect to it? We’re talking about a country or rather an alliance of about 400 million people here that exceeds America at this point, eventually it could get its own head and its own brain and it may not be controllable by either America or Israel.
Could this become a threat back to the people that you think have masterminded it?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, usually Sunni-Shia difference is being put forward as a veil covering the real situation. I don’t think it’s in reality, the real cause of this alliance. Besides, both Turkey and Saudi Arabia are trying to become the main actors in the Sunni world. So they are, in that sense, rivals rather than allies.
But with the US push, given the fact that both of them, actually the three countries, are somehow dependent on the US and have been working with the US both intelligence and defense services for decades. I think they are just creating some kind of a legal structure in order to act under this guise. If there is any attack, they would get into the ground attack scheme and have a legal ground for the participation in this operation. I think this is the main reason.
I don’t think Sunni and Shia division has any role to play. And for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to give the other the advantage of being the main force in the Sunni world, I don’t think we will see in our lifetime. As for the 400 million population, maybe it’s a good force to come up with a military that would participate in the ground operation. We know that Iran has more than a million ready force plus several million ready to join in case there is a ground operation and the US lacks this capacity.
So maybe these are the countries that would provide this manpower. I don’t know.
Asbed Bedrossian: And access, because if you look at the
Dziunik Aghajanian: geography… Access is the main reason they are selected for that. They surround Iran. Yes, they are not only these three, but also Afghanistan and United Arab Emirates and the others.
But for the military manpower, this is something that I would say rivals of Iran lack. And in that sense, these three countries, given the fact that they have participated in different operations, legally or illegally, they can get this force in place and make it part of this ground operation.
Asbed Bedrossian: I just have trouble seeing why a country like Pakistan with a huge border with Iran would risk attacking its neighbor for the interests of somebody else. There are no real issues between the two countries.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, of course, if it was left to Pakistan, it wouldn’t do that. And that’s why it got into the mediation effort to stop this fight.
Asbed Bedrossian: Are they stupid enough to wreck their country for the sake of the interests of another country that is 12 times?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, but they have done that in the past. Let’s remember the 20 years of Afghanistan. They have been the What do they call it? The home base for the Taliban and the rest or the fighters that have been trained and have been armed and then sent to Afghanistan.
It’s not news. I agree that Pakistan has stepped into a different phase of its development and it would love to have a peace surrounding so that they can prosper eventually get into some development economic activities, given the support of China to Pakistan currently. But I don’t think U.S. would leave Pakistan to its own to do whatever they want, given the fact that they have, I would say, very forceful leverages over both guarding people and the military there. So let’s see how it will go.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, we should not forget the never ending series of regime changes in Pakistan, the most recent being in 2022 with the removal of Imran Khan and imprisonment. So many consider Pakistan to be currently, I mean, the regime to be illegitimate there and essentially controlled by the US,
Dziunik Aghajanian: which Well, if I’m right in understanding what happened with Imran Khan, he did not agree to participate in any US drone activities and that was one of the reasons he was removed. And they brought a government that is thankful for getting into power to the US. So let’s wait and see. So there is time when you have to pay the debt.
And I think this is the time US is asking for to pay the bill in that sense.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, if they ever thought that Afghanistan was a vector of instability for the past quarter century and going on, wait until if Iran ever gets destabilized. They’re going to have 500 years of instability on their border.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, I hope it never happens because then the whole world will get destabilized because after Iran, we will see China and the rest and the whole world will be blown up. I hope with Iran, and I have this understanding that many countries understand that Iran is this stop button that could stop this whole devastating development, at least in this phase. Of course, it’s at the cost of Iranian people and their suffering, but we have seen that happening. So in a smaller scale in our country, And I think now people are seeing it in the Russia-Ukrainian War.
But this is something that has to stop. And the only way to stop it is the strength of Iran supported by all the countries that do not want to be subjugated to hegemonic power and its, I would say, stupid wishes of controlling the world and getting the revenues and the resources under their own control.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, speaking of Iran, Ambassador,
Asbed Bedrossian: while official statements are still more or less cordial between Iran and Armenia, it’s clear that not everything is well under the surface. Sporadically, some Civil Contract member will say that the TRIPP poses no danger to Iran, and then Pashinyan will say that he’s ready to address all of Iran’s concerns about the TRIPP. And then we end up hearing from Iranian officials that they remain concerned about the TRIPP.
And then we get moments like when opposition member Levon Zurabyan goes to Tehran and security officials over there tell him that if the TRIPP becomes, or rather they probably mean when the TRIPP becomes a national security issue, they’re going to deal with it the same way that they have dealt with American bases in the Middle East and the Gulf countries. We wanted to know, how are the Iranians really looking at the TRIPP? Instead of just reading between the lines, tell us how, what they think about the TRIPP.
And is Pashinyan tone deaf or is just basically instructed to appease Iran at any cost because, you know, somebody else will take care of the bigger issue?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, the Civil Contract is expressing their wishes, I would say. And in Armenia, we call they are trying to put a soft pillow under the head of Iranian leadership. That means that they are trying to, in a way, to lie to the Iranian government and gain time up till the moment when the TRIPP will be already factually in place. But I don’t think that Iranian officials are naive enough to keep believing what they are being told, seeing the way the US is acting, and that there is no way that whatever they are being explained or presented by the Armenian officials has any base.
And they are just giving their warning that they will not tolerate any Western, moreover, US presence in their borders . And they have been very clear and vocal in their position for the last two, three years. And especially after last year’s August 8 signing of this so-called TRIPP, they know that it is something that will try to choke the country and encircle it with all rival forces that will only work towards killing Iran and the country. And trying to, as I said, to deconstruct it.
I don’t think our leadership is naive to believe that whatever they say is being taken by the Iranian leadership on their word. It’s just they have to do that and they are doing it. We saw the same situation with Russia and now we are in a situation when the Russian side is demanding a clear positioning on where we stand. And I think the same will come from the Iranian side.
Hovik Manucharyan: Dziunik, the position of Civil Contract is obviously understood. I mean, many would say that it is a foreign-controlled force in Armenia. But how would you characterize the reaction of the opposition in Armenia to TRIPP? Both Strong Armenia and Hayastan Dashinq have offered some versions of support to TRIPP or some modifications under which they would support TRIPP.
But is it possible to put lipstick on this pig and call it something that will be amenable to all parties in the region?
Dziunik Aghajanian: If we look at it theoretically, it is possible, but then you have to have the right negotiator that will negotiate on the implementation of TRIPP and put forward projects and demands from the Armenian side that will make TRIPP really a communication project rather than a strategic one that it is currently. So theoretically that is possible and that’s what the opposition parties have been trying to explain and kind of push our government to put those demands or those suggestions on the table and try to make it really work as a communication or inter-regional connectivity project.
But the thing is that, as you rightfully mentioned, our government is foreign operated and foreign controlled government and they cannot do anything. They are just signing whatever they are told and they are doing whatever they are told. So I think what opposition is trying to do is to show both the public and also the American side or the Western side that if you want that implemented, you need to look into these aspects of the Armenian interest as well. Otherwise, you will have problems implementing the project.
So this is what they are doing. I don’t think it will work because I know how West thinks right now and the US thinks right now, but that might create a situation when the project is delayed because of the public discontent. And that will gain us time to come to a stage when we will be in a position to put forward our demands on the possibility of operating this, either this route or the passage of this route. So there are many options for that.
But as I said, we need to have government or leadership that will be acting solely on behalf of Armenia’s interests rather than serving the Western and Azeri and Turkish interests in this particular case.
Asbed Bedrossian: Ambassador, so given all this situation that’s going on right now, do you think that Pashinyan and his government have done enough to inform the citizens of Armenia about the risks that we have taken with this project?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Vice versa, they are trying to close the public eyes on the actual risks that this project presents and they are trying to present it to the public as something that has fallen from heavens to us and will help us become part of this bigger global connectivity issue project and will bring money to Armenia. But interestingly enough, one of our former prime ministers was giving an interview and he was giving the actual figures that the operation and I think that was given by a Turkish analyst in Forbes in an article that if this TRIPP becomes a reality, Turkey’s trade will increase threefold.
With the operation of TRIPP, Central Asian countries in their totality will have close to 500 billions of trade and they will think about what they can offer to Armenia. So you can understand that Armenia will gain nothing from this and only Turkey, Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries will gain from this project. And that’s where you need to have leadership that is negotiating on behalf of the country rather than serving somebody else’s interests.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, like you said, we do not hear a lot of real information and all sides of the story about TRIPP from our government, but if you listen to Ilham Aliyev , You get a really good picture of who is benefiting from this project.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Not only that, I think there are confidential documents that are not being released. There are many issues that the government and the officials do not speak about, like what is going to include in this connectivity project? Is it going to be road and railroad? Or will we get additional things coming in their interviews or briefings?
We don’t have any idea what would be the length of it, what would be the legal status of it, what would be the actual access infrastructure for the Armenian citizens. How would be the connection with Iran organized? These are multiple questions that we never get answers. Where our officials will be on that road?
Will people be able to even walk on that road. So these are things that we never get an answer to. But I think these are already agreed upon in the documents that are being kept secret from our Republic.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, if I’m to think about a Zangezur Corridor the way Aliyev talks about it, it’s going to include everything. It’s going to include pipelines, it’s going to include railroad, it’ll have a road, of course, there will be the fiber that we’ve actually seen agreements between Team Telecom Armenia and AzerTelecom that there are some agreements and those fibers are going to be laid across Syunik and other places. So it’s going to be very extensive. It’s so extensive that if you look towards Iran, you may not even see Iran.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, I don’t know, but the public is not informed about that.
Asbed Bedrossian: No, no, I don’t believe that. Certainly the Armenian public in Armenia, I don’t get the sense that they are fully informed.
Dziunik Aghajanian: If we who live in the country are not informed and we’re getting information from interviews of different people or information that is being leaked out, how can the diaspora people be aware of all the details of this deal? And you know what is really frightening about this? We have never had this kind of a situation. Whatever project was negotiated or any kind of, especially this kind of a big project was being put forward to Armenia.
All details have been presented to the public in their entirety. We have never had this kind of a very secretive atmosphere under which the project is being implemented and this atmosphere itself shows that whatever is being presented to the public is not the reality. It is meant for something else.
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah. Ilham Aliyev talked extensively about the militarization of Nakhichevan. None of that has made it into the mainstream media inside Armenia, as far as I can tell. If you are to look at the geography, of course, we do, Ambassador.
There’s Nakhichevan, there’s Syunik, there’s Artsakh , Nagorno-Karabakh. This is one important region as a whole. And it’s completely being militarized. So one of the things that Aliyev mentioned is that various expert teams, specialists from Azerbaijan had come to Syunik and they had scoped out, canvassed the territory to understand where they were going to be putting various infrastructural items like electric poles, cables and stuff like that.
And apparently all of that work is done. Now, when this broke out in the past week, And Pashinyan essentially tried to avoid it and then eventually agreed that this had happened and he tried to shuffle it under the rug by saying, oh yeah, but this is old news because the teams happened to come to Armenia earlier in the year. Why didn’t we hear about this from the Pashinyan government? Why do we have to listen to Ilham Aliyev to know what’s going on inside Armenia?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, the team came according to the information that was given in January. And you remember in January, this government announced that the U.S. is not interested in the implementation of the TRIPP project and it will be delayed. So, as I explained, there is this tactic that this government has played out during the whole period that they have been in power. They are lying to the public.
They are presenting different stories. They are just showing misinformation. And then when the thing is already in place, they are putting people in front of an actual fact and saying, okay, it is already there. We can’t do anything.
So this is the way they are acting. We call it, it’s a handwriting. It’s their way of behavior. So because they know that there are many issues with this project that are risking our security and even the existence of our country and the security of our people, They are just trying to, as I said, put a soft pillow under the head of our people.
Meantime, working behind the scene, all the details, trying to already implement the project, having it realized on the ground before the people can realize that it is already in existence. So this is what they are doing. What Aliyev said, and I think that the media in Armenia missed that part, and I have been stressing it during my interviews for the last several years, was that they were planning to actually occupy Meghri, and he said that they were planning to open up this corridor during the 44-day Artsakh war. So this was part of the project.
This was part of the plan. It did not materialize because Armenian soldiers fought and they did not allow the Azeri army come very close to Armenia’s borders, which forced this Civil Contract government and the one sitting on the top of it to start giving Armenian territories by signing this November 9 declaration and even beyond what was in the declaration quickly so that the people who were in the shock of the war, in the shock of the losses, wouldn’t realize what is happening. And when everything was done, they would be standing in front of a fact and they can do nothing about that. Thing is happening now.
So, and I’m not surprised that they have currently brought the trial against Catholicos right now because they need this noise, they need this information chaos that will keep people busy and their attention diverted from TRIPP and what is happening in the South so that they would use this period to materialize their commitments, to have things already in place. There is a lot of information that even the owners of the land have sold their property to the company who will be controlling the area. We don’t know how that would be done. Selling their land to or the property to who they are selling it.
No information coming, but they are cleaning up the area, opening up the area for the infrastructure to be put in place, both in the blueprint and in the organization of it. And we will see quick construction things happening because this has already become a very important part of, as I explained, this ground operation that the U.S. is currently planning. And as you rightfully mentioned, Nakhichevan is being militarized. The occupied areas of Artsakh are militarized, so the only passageway that is left is the border with Armenia, and they are trying to close it as well.
They are thinking that by encircling Iran and having it attacked from all the parts would put Iran in such a situation that it won’t be able to withstand the attack and they will be defeated. But I don’t think that will work out that way, but putting a country like Armenia in that position is just very devilish, both for those who have come out with this kind of a plan and our government that is blindfolded following their instructions.
Hovik Manucharyan: Ambassador, when the dictator of Baku was talking about sending electricity through Armenia, he was so magnanimous that he said that some of that electricity could be also provided to Armenia instead of passing through Armenia. Of course, the fine print was that, you know, that would come after Armenia closes down the Armenian nuclear power plant. Pashinyan immediately denied, you know, after confirming that, hey, actually, Azerbaijani experts were in Armenia. Old news, he denied that Armenia is planning on discontinuing the reliance on the nuclear power plant and he said that Armenia is planning on achieving 100% energy independence.
So I wanted to ask you how exactly is Armenia achieving 100% energy independence by alienating Russia geopolitically? Who provides gas and nuclear energy and refusing Russian offers to rebuild or construct a completely new nuclear power plant and dilly-dallying with this vaporware idea of small modular reactors from the US. How is Armenia exactly achieving energy independence?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, as I said, the main way that this government is acting is lying to people about their intentions and their plans and presenting it in very nice terms. Last year, they signed this agreement with the US on how they call it, this small
Asbed Bedrossian: Small modular reactors?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Modular reactors, yeah, which the US doesn’t have. And for the last several years, they have been playing around the possibility of starting the construction of a new nuclear plant for after the current plant operation is closed down. And we have seen different documents coming out that indicate that this particular construction will be after our current plant is closed down. So we understand that the plan is to drag the process to the period when it will be too late to extend the current plant.
Or already have the new one in place, close the current one and leave Armenia without any nuclear power plant, which is the dream of both Turkey and Azerbaijan, and make it totally dependent on this interconnectivity that Europe is currently trying to build under the project called Global Gateway. So this is something that, as I said, again, the public is being lied about. They are not presenting their real intentions. They are just giving different kinds of reasoning and trying to divert the public attention from the issue.
Meantime, working towards actually not having the opportunity of Armenia keeping the nuclear power plant as not only the very secure source of electricity, but also as a security guarantee because having the nuclear power plant provides real security to the country because neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan would think about attacking Armenia or even attacking the nuclear power plant because the radiation will kill people not only in Armenia but also in Turkey and Azerbaijan. So the effect will be on both countries besides Armenia. So this is something that is already in the commitments of this government.
They are not giving the real picture to the public, but behind the scenes they are working towards implementation of the project that Aliyev simply But let’s not forget that Azerbaijan does not have enough of its own gas resources and they are reselling the Russian gas. So with this kind of guaranteeing Armenia of provision of both electricity and gas means that we will be feeding the Azerbaijani budget and paying more than we are paying for the same resources and for the same products that we are currently getting directly from Russia.
Hovik Manucharyan: I’m not even sure if Azerbaijan has the surplus electrical capacity to provide Armenia. The plan is to bring Central Asian energy to Armenia.
Dziunik Aghajanian: They don’t have their own and that’s why they were eager to get the more than 30 electricity plants that were located in Artsakh. And even that is not enough for them to be self-sufficient. So there are different things. And I think Turkey is also counting on connecting Armenia as one of the consumers of their electricity because of the nuclear power plant that is being built currently in Turkey.
So this is something that they are trying to deprive Armenia of its own resources and make it totally dependent on the neighboring countries, especially Turkey and Azerbaijan, so that eventually it’s a political issue for them to close the Armenian cause forever by making Armenia and the Armenian people totally dependent on the wishes and wills of both Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Asbed Bedrossian: And let the irony not be wasted on anyone that they’re trying to sell Artsakh’s energy back to Armenia.
Dziunik Aghajanian: No, the irony is that Armenia was selling electricity to Turkey. For years, for decades, Armenia was selling electricity to Turkey. And now there’s discussion whether Armenia will be electricity dependent on Azerbaijan or Turkey. This is just incredible.
Hovik Manucharyan: Let’s move a little bit to Armenia-Russia relations. Given that Russia has provided an ultimatum to Armenia to hold a referendum by December 2026, or EAEU will take joint action including legal suspension or termination of EAEU agreements with Armenia. By that I mean the Eurasian Economic Union. Additionally, the CSTO, the military alliance led by Russia, will consider measures on November 11 to restrict Armenia’s voting rights and quota appointments due to Yerevan’s refusal to pay membership fees since 2024.
What happens if Armenia is frozen out both from CSTO and EAEU? How much should Armenians worry about these threats from Russian controlled organizations?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, the Collective Security Treaty Organization has provisions that if you do not pay Your membership fee for more than two years, then you cannot vote. It’s the same in the UN. You cannot vote if you do not pay for more than two years and then your voting rights are revoked. But I don’t think there is a provision in the organization that they can stop the membership of the country.
It’s solely on the country itself to ask for the withdrawal from the participation and the membership of this organization. What this government is trying to do is to come up with a situation when the withdrawal from the organization would be presented to the public as something that they have been thrown out of the organization rather than them being have created a situation when there was no way of continuing the membership. But I think the Russian side is fully aware of this thing and they will not allow this to happen this way. So it will be kind of a hanging carrot there somewhere.
Doing nothing. We will be formally a member, in fact, not participating in the work of the organization. But the rest of the members will have a full go because then Armenia’s vote will not be able to obstruct the work of the organization itself. So legally, there will be fully in position to adopt decision without even consulting with the Armenian government.
So that will be the situation I think it can drag for years without any further steps being taken. It’s a different situation with the Eurasian Economic Union because economically Armenia benefits enormously from that and there is no alternative to that. Honestly, there is no alternative to that in the world. So if there are difficulties created in the organization, then I don’t know what they will do economically, though, if I’m not mistaken, many Western officials have promised Armenia and the Armenian people hardship and devastation for years.
Hovik Manucharyan: Cold winters.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Cold winters, yes. And we remember very well the beginning of the 90s and the total blockade and the economic situation in the country. So I think it is going to that until the people in Armenia realize that this government is bringing only suffering, devastation, losses, lies. Security risks, even existential risks to both the country and the people, and eventually support the change of the government forces.
So this is going to that direction. We are still in the beginning of this process. The government cannot risk any referendum, but politically giving in to this kind of a demand will kill their reputation, though they don’t have any reputation. But nonetheless, it will mean that they are following instructions from foreign organization or foreign forces.
And moreover, they are not really clear on the outcome of this kind of a referendum. And the way they will act after this referendum is taken and they will be faced with the result of the referendum. Say the people come out and vote for the membership to the EU. So what would you do as a government if that is the result?
It would mean that you will have to stop your membership in the Eurasian Economic Union but you have nothing to do in the European Union and they are not going to open up their markets for your products. So you will be left with nothing. Say people come out and say we want to stay with the Eurasian Economic Union and that means they have nothing to present to their European masters. So this is the situation that they are forced to work out through.
And I think they are currently thinking of a way to maneuver and just delay the response time, come up with some kind of excuse that will give them a way of just putting the issue aside and trying to overcome the restrictions. That Russia has put forward towards the products that are going to Russia. So I think in the coming months, we will see more and more producers, business people, losses, counting their losses as a result of this irresponsible and foreign driven policy that has been implemented by our government. And then we will have to see what the public reaction to this whole situation will be.
Hovik Manucharyan: Ambassador, I just, I can’t not recall one of the recent things that one of our guests said, I believe it was Mikaelian, that there are very few situations in the world where your ability to export to a country is limited not by how much your customers can buy, but how much you can produce. Essentially, Russia right now is importing an unlimited amount, at least in Armenian terms unlimited, of produce and agricultural output. And the only limitation is Armenia’s own capacity to produce this. You mentioned that a referendum might result in Armenian people realizing that this is a serious economic issue for Armenia.
It’s a serious political issue. And a political issue. But I want to pivot to the role, the mandate to the opposition parties who have a mandate to demonstrate this issue to the people. The 9th Convocation of the Armenian National Assembly officially has begun its operations since August 2nd.
We’re now two or even more, two weeks into the sessions. It was a pragmatic choice to enter the parliament despite all the irregularities and the robbery of votes from Armenian citizens, at least those who voted for a Prosperous Armenia. We’re seeing the same unpleasant discussions we’ve heard in the past, but we’re also seeing a slight difference in terms of the opposition strategy. We’re seeing that Strong Armenia is trying to set at least some analysts interpret that Strong Armenia is trying to set a more conciliatory tone with the government.
We saw examples of that when Edgar Ghazaryan criticized the government in parliament, and rather than fully backing him, for instance, Narek Karapetyan from Strong Armenia said that they will discuss this in internal faction meetings, although he didn’t apologize for what Edgar Ghazaryan said. What is the opposition strategy?
I know that it was a pragmatic choice to enter the parliament, but if their mandate was to get rid of Pashinyan, and I would like to know if you agree with their mandate, what is the mandate of the opposition anyway, but if their mandate was to achieve regime change, which they have stated in the past, how are they going about it?
Dziunik Aghajanian: Well, let’s face the situation that the opposition did not gain enough votes to change the government, to get into the ruling positions. But they have enough votes not to allow this government to pass decisions that require a referendum. Or there are several decisions that the National Assembly cannot pass without the two-thirds vote. So what I think the parties are doing is trying to create a situation when it is ripe, they will gain additional votes from the other side.
So the opposition is trying to work in a way that would probably at the right moment get some Civil Contract members join their endeavor in saying goodbye to Pashinyan. I think in the coming months it’s not going to happen. And knowing how the Civil Contract selection was made, I don’t believe any of these people that are currently in the parliament would even risk doing that. What the Civil Contract is trying to do is first trying to show some kind of a semblance of legality of their being in the ruling position.
So they know that they have no legitimacy and the public does not accept the outcomes of the elections. So their legitimacy is questioned and they are trying to create a scene when it will be perceived as if there is some kind of a constructive work going on there. And with that, they think they will at the right moment have some of the opposition members join them. With the possibility of passing these decisions that would require two thirds of the parliamentary vote.
So I think this is the current game that is being played out there. Besides the parties positioning themselves and showing themselves and expressing their opinions on different issues, it’s also this underlying interest that is being played out from a different side. But I don’t think either side will succeed in that. As I explained, the selection of Civil Contract is done in such a way that all of them are dependent and they are under full control from Pashinyan and other forces that have leverages on them, so they cannot escape and do anything except for what they are told.
As for Strong Armenia, I think they are new in the parliament. They have still their belief that they will succeed in giving the understanding to the other side that working towards Armenia’s interest is more beneficial and then try to come up with some kind of a working scheme that would benefit all of us. With the Hayastan Dashinq, the Hayastan Dashinq, we know that they know the reality and they don’t believe in the lies that are currently being presented to them.
So I think this kind of either constructive working methods or opinion sharing with each other will go for a month or two months until the Armenian government is pushed to have the TRIPP document ratified and also the constitution, the new constitution that nobody has seen the draft of, now forced to be brought to the parliament, then we will see the real fight going on. And I think the rift will enlarge, get bigger, and we will see the real standing of all the parties and their positions. So this is just the beginning.
Don’t believe that there will be any kind of a constructive work given the commitments that this government has and the timing that is working against them in all of the issues that they are currently facing.
Asbed Bedrossian: Ambassador Aghajanian, that was a fairly comprehensive review of what’s going on in and around Armenia. We thank you for your time and your insight. Love talking with you.
Dziunik Aghajanian: Thank you very much. Well, I hope some of my analysis would not come true because I want both my country intact, secure, and my region also secure. I think it’s the only way to prosper and benefit from each other. But I don’t think this is the understanding that is overriding in the minds of the people who are charting all these plans.
And I think that we will be facing much harder situations, unfortunately, because, as I said, we are constantly being lied about both the situation, the commitments, the plans, and we’re just trying to work as a stopper rather than as a developer in the situation. And that’s not a beneficial state to be in.
Asbed Bedrossian: Thank you for joining us. We will talk to you soon. Thank you.
Hovik Manucharyan: Thank you, Ambassador.
Asbed Bedrossian: That was our show recorded on August 18, 2026. We’ve been talking with Ms. Dziunik Aghajanian. She has served Armenia through the ranks of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and most recently as a diplomat as Armenia’s ambassador to countries like the Netherlands, Malaysia, Indonesia, She was educated at Yerevan State University and then Columbia University in New York and Uppsala University in Sweden.
For more information, of course, you know, you would go to podcasts.groong.org slash episode number, click on the bios and read the show notes and the links and references that we provide. Thank you.
Hovik Manucharyan: Hope you enjoyed this discussion, folks. If you did, then consider supporting us, liking, commenting, sharing any way you can, including the methods that Asbed mentioned. Thank you very much. My name is Hovik Manucharyan.
Asbed Bedrossian: I’m Asbed Bedrossian. Don’t forget to go to podcasts.groong.org and help us out. Muchas gracias.
Hovik Manucharyan: Thank you.