Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hello everyone, welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Week in Review for July 19, 2026. Folks, just a quick reminder that we are always inviting you to support us financially as well as morally and in spirit. We love the comments that you make on our shows and we really appreciate the likes, although we could definitely see more shares, a lot more shares. So share our shows, but definitely visit podcast.groong.org slash donate and consider becoming a sustaining member.
It would be awesome for all of us, not just Groong, but yourself as well.
Hovik Manucharyan: And thank you for those who have supported us in the past, or who are actually continuing supporters. Thank you from the bottom of our hearts. It means a lot. Absolutely.
Asbed Bedrossian: Okay, on with the show. Hovik, what do you have?
Hovik Manucharyan: The war in Iran, given that Armenia is Iran’s northern neighbor. Now, if there was any doubt that the MOU, the memorandum of understanding that was signed on June 17th between U.S. and Iran was dead, this week marked the decisive and bloody collapse of that MOU. The escalations started, I guess, on July 7th, and slowly, in a tit-for-tat manner, they’re now spiraling out of control.
Many publications that we’ve read, or at least that I’ve read and I watched, the YouTube was full of interviews by John Mearsheimer and many others this week, lead me to conclude that there is no end in sight to this conflict and there is no clear victory for either side. I think John Mearsheimer put it more formally that the U.S. has no theory of victory. And I’m using his quotes. So by the end of the week, the conflict has reached a grim milestone.
On the night of July 17th, three days ago, Iranian ballistic missiles struck the Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in Jordan, hitting the troops, billeting that area with high precision. And the attack resulted in the deaths of four U.S. service members, including also destroyed and damaged aircraft, Black Hawk helicopters, F-15s even.
Now, the week concluded with vertical escalation by the United States, which struck a nuclear plant in Darkhovin that was under construction, and that triggered warnings from the IAEA to stop attacks against Iranian officials also reported that the U.S. air strikes heavily damaged the Bunji desalination plant in the Hormuzgan province, disrupting drinking water for the population there of about 10,000 residents and 20 villages. And Iran also responded to that by bombing desalination plants and power plants in Kuwait, threatening the freshwater supply for millions in the region.
Now, that is very curious to me why the U.S. would strike desalination plants, because Iran relies on 10% of its drinking water from desalination plants, probably even less, less than 10%. Now, the Gulf states, which Iran reciprocated against, Kuwait, for instance, is 90% run on desalination. I think Saudi Arabia also relies very heavily on desalinated water. And so does Oman.
And it was exactly those states that reportedly called up Trump in panic, requesting that Trump de-escalate. But then the question becomes, why did Trump escalate against desalination plants and other civilian infrastructure to begin with? Another word that, a less formal word that Mearsheimer used is the U.S. is just flailing in the wind, as he said. And so what is the U.S. endgame, Asbed?
What are your thoughts?
Asbed Bedrossian: You know, I do not know. It just feels to me like there’s no plan at present. I think right now we’re kind of a holding pattern as we head towards October for the Israeli elections and then in November when there will be the U.S. midterm elections. But not everything is closed.
I think that even at this time right now, there is a delegation from Iran that is headed to Islamabad and they’re going to be continuing the talks. And I believe that interestingly, while this what I call the controlled escalation that we have seen, both of the countries have not closed the diplomatic path. So I think that what they are doing is they’re using the war escalation as a means for negotiation upper hand. Does that make sense, Hovik?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, but that would imply that, I mean, at least one of the sides would see that escalating would be beneficial. And my just thoughts are, it seems like the U.S. was the primary responsible party for breaking the ceasefire, and why would the escalation be good for the United States right now? What did it do? It attempted a 40-day strategic bombing, it attempted a naval blockade , and those didn’t yield any results.
What will escalation change this time?
Asbed Bedrossian: I think that the Republicans have a lot of problems in the United States. There are problems with popular discontent about Inflation, other economic issues. And right now, when there’s war, hardly anybody really has the time to talk about those things. And another thing that I want to mention is that in Switzerland, reportedly, and I got this from, I think it was Drop Site News, the Iranian delegation let J.D.
Vance know that the American negotiators are taking personal financial advantage of these negotiations through market manipulations. They were saying that these negotiators and others in their circle are making about $9 billion in market manipulations. Of course, this has been denied, and Iran has said in due time they are going to publish all the evidence for this. So for me, the interesting thing is that while they’re on the offensive in negotiations, we are hearing a lot less about the initial reasons why this war even started.
Supposedly, Iran’s nuclear power, enriched uranium and stuff like that. We have gone very far from that. And now we are talking about a deep lack of trust in the negotiation process, rebuilding trust in the process. This is going to take forever and a half.
Hovik Manucharyan: Is this going to be like essentially another forever war?
Asbed Bedrossian: It seems to me, yeah, we talked to one of our friends this morning and that was exactly the question. We want to, when we record that show in a week or so, we are going to ask, is the United States in a brand new forever war with this Iran business?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah.
Asbed Bedrossian: Let’s see how it goes. In any case, I just don’t see that we are going to have a full-blown war. We’re just going to have this simmering escalation or controlled escalation at least until November. And the two sides are just going to exchange.
Hovik Manucharyan: Why would why would Iran allow the U.S. to escalate and then allow the U.S. to quietly de-escalate? So we have actually two very interesting interviews by Mearsheimer that we’ll link in the show notes. And that was it was very interesting that basically Mearsheimer is arguing that the Iranian position right now is more favorable, stronger than June 17th. And any negotiation that happens right now will be more beneficial to Iran.
And Iran essentially has this coercive leverage, right? It can tank markets at will just by blocking Hormuz. And the question then becomes, okay, Does this brinkmanship by this billionaire class, the robber baron class, is it eventually still going to be beneficial for them? Because if the global economy tanks, their assets also will be destroyed or reduced.
I mean, it seems like even out of self-interest, they should seek a solution, a negotiated solution, but that’s not happening.
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s not Iran going and bombing the United States or anything. They’re sitting 12 time zones away from the United States and getting bombed. I believe that the Iranians want this thing to go away completely, but I’m seeing that the retaliation is having some effect. Now they’ve got Gulf countries on their side saying, telling the United States to stop it because if their desalination plants are taken out, there’s going to be some very serious repercussions for these countries.
I think you said it’s like an existential problem for them if they’re not going to have any drinking water for millions of people. So Iran is putting the kind of pressure it believes that will end or stop or pause for a very long time this issue. While Israel and the United States are basically making threats saying that they’re locked and loaded, they have plenty of new ammo, and they’re wanting to continue, but they have political issues at home. So I see the current state just continuing on and on for a while.
Hovik Manucharyan: But thinking more strategically, do you agree with Trita Parsi, who in a very interesting Substack post argued that essentially the era of U.S. military dominance in the Middle East is over? And he argued that this conflict has revealed stunning limitations of the American security umbrella over the Middle East, at least. Do you agree with that?
Asbed Bedrossian: Who am I to disagree with? Trita Parsi. I think he is quite amazing. So obviously, yeah.
But when I read the stuff that he had written, I went to look, I think a few weeks ago, I mentioned that a country like Iran, double the size of Turkey, you just can’t bomb it into submission. It’s a huge country, huge resources, 90 million people. It has the kind of resources. It has to absorb a lot of pain and survive.
And it’s obviously done this for 6,000, 7,000 plus years. But I did go into some AI and did a little bit of math, Hovik, just to see. I just wanted for our listeners to put a little perspective on Iran’s size. How would Iran compare to France, for example?
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, I think Iran is the size of all of Western Europe combined. That’s right. So I just kept adding huge countries in Europe.
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s the size of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the UK, all of them together. The top five countries in Europe, all of them put together. Basically, it’s 1.65 million versus 1.75. So it’s a tiny little bit more for all those five countries.
But just to give you a perspective, you would have to bomb all of continental Europe.
Hovik Manucharyan: Did the U.S. military not know this when they attacked Iran in January?
Asbed Bedrossian: Yeah, well, I don’t know what the U.S. military knows.
Hovik Manucharyan: Enough rhetorical questions. Someone should have handed them a map. Maybe it was the scaling of the map, you know how it’s always… That’s right.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, the northern countries look very, very… Maybe they were looking at a map of Greenland. I know that we are laughing about it, but it’s very serious considering both Iranian and U.S. troops are dying. I think you mentioned a little bit earlier.
I think the number of U.S. servicemen who have died is 17. I’m American. It hurts me to know that. These kids did not need to die.
And dozens if not hundreds of Iranians have died as well in these bombings and that’s not nice either.
Hovik Manucharyan: Of course, this was all preventable, it’s regrettable, but in the age of when swords are doing the talking, I think that Iran has so far proven that it can stand on par with the biggest superpower in the world. And all signs are pointing to a resurging Iran, which I would only welcome, not because I’m pro-militarist but I think that it will actually bring more peace to the region. It will tame Israel, it will tame Turkey and it will tame Azerbaijan. And I think that a strategically strong Iran that emerges after this will be very beneficial for Armenia as well.
People all over the Middle East and around the world deserve a little peace right now. So our prayers are with them and we hope that peace comes to the region soon. And I for one, I think that will be very beneficial for Armenia as well. An Iran that emerges strong after this with a peace deal in hand in the United States.
And unfortunately, it seems that it has to come through the price of But let’s see what happens.
Hovik Manucharyan: What’s going on in Armenia, Asbed?
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, Hovika, actually, it’s a little, very little is going on, other than the opposition announcing that they’ve decided to take up the mandates in the parliament, despite the fact that they say the elections were falsified. There is currently not much going on on the political scene in Yerevan. It’s hot. It’s summertime, it’s vacation time, and a lot of people are probably not there.
And usually, you know, Yerevan politics heat up in the fall, as they say. So in the middle of summer, you really can tell there’s not a lot going on. If you were to read government press, whether you look at their television and radio or whether you look at Armenpress articles, most of it is stuff going on in Europe. It tries to give you the impression that Armenia is part of Europe.
So they are reporting on fires in Spain, stuff going on in France, heat wave here, whatever. It’s all Europe, Europe, Europe. So you can really tell that there’s not a lot going on in Armenia.
Hovik Manucharyan: It’s kind of surreal talking about summer vacations in the midst of a falsified election. I think a lot of people in the opposition were dissatisfied and disillusioned with the results of the election. So what happens?
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, so the interesting thing is that I think there were some expectations that the opposition leaders were going to do something more. So what do you expect? What did you hope expect from the opposition or the opposition leaders?
Hovik Manucharyan: Look, I no longer know what to expect because these elections were clearly falsified and it seems like no one gives a damn. We talked about how the OSCE head was pranked into criticizing their own electoral observation mission. And in an environment like that, I would never advocate for apathy or just anarchy. But I think that in this environment, to me, some of the statements and the opposition statements still make sense.
I would love to see more evidence that their plan is bulletproof. They’re saying essentially, right now, it would be an inopportune moment in the middle of the summer heat to hit the streets and do what? Like everyone is in vacation, all the government offices are in vacation, Pashinyan is probably on vacation as well. And Samvel Karapetyan was saying that street movements will coincide with, and the escalation from the opposition will coincide with the trigger.
That makes sense to me. And I know a lot of people are dissatisfied. A lot of people are now like, you know, yelling. Well, you know, everyone has that uncle, right?
Asbed Bedrossian: I’m also one of those dissatisfied people, but for different reasons. Sometimes it feels to me like the opposition really doesn’t even know how to take opportunities that come along. For example, these persecutions of Tsarukyan that started and they closed down What was it? 70 of his enterprises and tens of thousands of people ended up out of their jobs. A lot of people started protesting.
So there was a clear labor issue. It was popular as well because people just flooded the streets in their areas. This was not a major Yerevan scene thing. A lot of people started protesting and I’m thinking, wow, this could be just a popular movement.
If only there was a leader who just decided to galvanize it and do something with it, but nothing. And the government certainly is very, very savvy about these things. If they see that these people just want that factory open, they’ll open that factory and take out the air from that protest and let it fizzle away while they’re managing their crisis. You know what?
The opposition sort of reminds me of this Toumanian story. What is it called? I think Ghent Marta, right? This guy gets promised happiness and riches and then goes through a number of little adventures, meets a beautiful woman, says, oh, no, I can’t stay with you because I’ve been promised happiness and riches and finds a pot of gold, just leaves it alone.
And then at the end is left with nothing. And God says, what more can I do for you? I sent all these things your way and you didn’t take them. So I feel like the opposition is a little bit like that.
Hovik Manucharyan: Look, it’s easy to criticize the opposition. We’ll talk more about the number of opposition members in jail right now. And I am empathetic to the fact that Armenia is now a totalitarian country. If not totalitarian, then it’s definitely on its way.
In a totalitarian regime, eventually it will break, but power has to be used strategically and conservatively. I always argue with my friends. I don’t want to recite Pashinyan’s argument that if there is a street revolution in Armenia, if in 2018, immediately when that happened, it received the applause from the West, if there’s a street revolution in Armenia and Samvel Karapetyan comes to power, do you think Russia will recognize that government? The first thing that will happen by the West is unilateral sanctions and also multilateral UN sanctions if, let’s say, Samvel Karapetyan leads a protest movement.
So Armenia needs diplomatic backing in the United Nations, at least, to prevent multilateral sanctions. I don’t want to say it’s all out of our hands. I don’t want to deny Armenia agency, and I don’t want to deny the opposition agency, but Armenia needs the right external conditions to have a revolution. I think that’s also one of the calculations in the opposition playbook.
Call me cynical, call me denying, excuse me of denying agency to the opposition, but I think all the things need to align, and as long as there’s a war in Ukraine , Russia is very actually cognizant of not opening a second front in the South Caucasus , and also that’s a risk. Pashinyan says there will be war in September, I don’t want to recite his threats, but yes, once Samvel Karapetyan comes to power, what next? Do you think Aliyev will sit calmly or will he try to escalate here and there? And again, we have to turn to Russia and Iran for some…
And Iran has its own war going on. So I just think that the stars are not aligned right now, but that doesn’t mean that we should be satisfied with the opposition’s actions right now. But okay, can we prove that they’re not doing anything? And I don’t think that’s also possible.
Asbed Bedrossian: Well, I’m not saying that they’re not doing anything. Or they’re not preparing. We should just agree to disagree that enough is being done, maybe. Or maybe I feel like you’re giving them too much credit for the patience they’re showing, whatever.
Frankly, it’s been five years of patience and no results. And I do expect more, and I hope they have that. I am a person who has no agency on Armenian affairs. So there you go.
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, actually, as a diaspora, you should have agency, but you’re being denied that agency by the Pashinyan government. But that’s a separate story.
Asbed Bedrossian: We talked a little bit about labor issues and things like that. There is a new boss in Armenia. There’s a guy who purchased the second-largest mining enterprise in Armenia. And there is enough evidence that he has the levers that he can yank this government’s chains as well.
Konstantin Sokolov, why don’t you tell us a little bit about his new exploits in Armenia?
Hovik Manucharyan: Well, Konstantin Sokolov, I think that’s the name in the media this week, and he’s an American investor. Now, Western media like to preface it by saying he’s a Russian-born American investor, somehow to diminish his pro-Republican, pro-Trump credentials. But essentially, Konstantin Sokolov, who was born in Russia, has Jewish roots, has been appointed chairman of the new TRIPP+ Enterprise Fund, a U.S. State Department-backed investment vehicle that we’ve talked about before, which will oversee at least 200 million in projects for Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia as part of this whole TRIPP thing.
Asbed Bedrossian: And if it’s successful, I’ve heard that this might actually go up to 400 million plus. Yeah. So that’s almost half a billion dollars to be spent in the South Caucasus. Yeah.
Hovik Manucharyan: And the news is that in the same week, the same guy acquired the second-largest mine, copper mine in Armenia, the Teghut mine. And he’s not new to Armenia. He’s also a controlling stakeholder or shareholder in Viva Armenia, which is one of the telecommunications companies in Armenia. Is it just Viva or is it VivaCell?
It used to be called VivaCell, but the name of the company is Viva Armenia. So it used to be VivaCell before. So he acquired 49.9% in the Teghut copper-molybdenum mine from another Russian entity, the state-owned VTB Bank. But is that the end of the story?
Of course, the U.S. side of things is more interesting, right? How did this guy get appointed to oversee all those funds in TRIPP?
Asbed Bedrossian: I’m glad you asked. Sokolov has also donated more than $12 million to the Republican campaigns and political groups during Trump’s second term. Reportedly, this includes $11 million to Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC and half a million dollars to the Republican National Committee. He was also among the donors to Trump’s planned White House ballroom.
We don’t know the exact amount. I know that.
Hovik Manucharyan: What a nice ballroom. We actually don’t know how much money he donated. The ballroom and the war in Iran. The ballroom and the war in Iran.
Asbed Bedrossian: I mean, yeah, those are the top news. So he gives all this money, Hovik, and then suddenly he’s appointed to run TRIPP+. All these government appointments. He’s not the first person.
I mean, the Trump administration is ripe with these things.
Hovik Manucharyan: It’s not just the Trump administration. Have we forgotten the exploits of Hunter Biden and the 10% for the big guy? It’s just a rising robber baron class that seems to be making profits left and right from any geopolitical deal that the United States puts its military and geopolitical power behind.
Asbed Bedrossian: Is there any kind of control oversight on this entity, this TRIPP+ Fund? What have you heard about this?
Hovik Manucharyan: If you ask the State Department, then yes, but this is a guy. He has very important interests in telecommunications and mining in Armenia, and he is going to be handing out money for telecommunications and mining projects and transportation projects in Armenia. So you tell me. I think that that’s a rhetorical question, in my opinion.
Asbed Bedrossian: So at what point does this stop looking like an independent economic development, Hovik, and start looking more like a division of Armenia’s strategic assets, natural resources?
Hovik Manucharyan: I think we’re way past that point. It’s happening right in front of our eyes, and it’s nothing more than just neocolonialism with a tinge of billionaire class sort of It’s not it’s not countries that are colonializing now. It seems to be individual billionaires that are taking.
Asbed Bedrossian: I know with the rise of these billionaires turning trillionaires, it’s very I mean, they can buy entire countries and and not like peanut countries either like Armenia. They can buy sizable countries. Elon Musk, for example, with a trillion dollars. Well, it’s not in the bank, but enterprises and everything is a huge amount of power that he can wield everywhere.
Hovik Manucharyan: Let me ask you a question, Asbed.
Asbed Bedrossian: Okay.
Hovik Manucharyan: So you always say that if you were the president of Armenia… So if you were the president of Armenia, if you were Armenian leadership, who apparently has veto power over TRIPP, would you accept this person leading TRIPP or leading the distribution of funds for TRIPP?
Asbed Bedrossian: Hovik, I don’t believe that I would have, as President of Armenia, I would have the agency to say yes or no. Here we have a very unequal partnership between Armenia and the United States. First of all, they have 74% for the next 49 years, and then they’re going to have something like 51%, I think, for the next 99 years. And I don’t believe that Armenia could at this point say, no, we’re not going to do this.
It’s going to take a major geopolitical shift for Armenia to be backed by some regional friends to come and say we’re not going to do this.
Hovik Manucharyan: There you go denying agency to the Armenian opposition.
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s not the opposition. I’m denying agency to the Armenian government that’s going to represent or going to be at the table with the United States, with these Sokolovs, with these Aliyevs. They’re going to have way more agency than any Armenian is going to be able to wield. I do want to point one thing out here about TRIPP.
The more that the United States protracts this conflict it has with Iran, the less likely it is that this TRIPP thing is going to be realized. I’m not saying it’s not going to be realized, but the longer that this war is going on, the less leverage America has in Armenia, because nobody’s going to plop millions, hundreds of millions of dollars in a place that is right on the border with Iran. And ready to be destroyed with, let’s say, some ballistic missiles. It’s not going to happen.
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, I mean, even just looking at the investment climate in Armenia. You know, in 2018, there was a healthy amount of foreign investment in Armenia. All of that has dwindled down to zero.
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s evaporated.
Hovik Manucharyan: And any businessman who is against the government is being persecuted. So if all things were equal, if there was an even playing field legally, then no businessman, foreign or domestic, So that’s, I think, the other clue that we are missing. But I think the right answer, I still want to go back and say that, okay, if the Armenian opposition takes power, do we have to just rely on foreign powers to undo TRIPP for us? We got ourselves into this mess a little bit.
I think there is some agency and I think Armenia could have, with the right leadership could have argued for a more impartial, a more, what do you call it, a person with less conflicts of interest to be at least doing this.
Asbed Bedrossian: So that was a key term that you used, with the right leadership, which I don’t believe that we have at present. We don’t have a person who is able to say no to things that go counter to Armenian national interests.
Asbed Bedrossian: Let’s do a final word on this topic, Hovik. Have you ever read the term about Sokolov saying Russian-Jewish-turned-American billionaire Sokolov? No. I’m sure you have not.
Every time there is an article that talks about Karapetyan, it says Armenian billionaire, as if that’s basically either a warning or an insult to the guy. So at every point, they are going to say Russian-Armenian and they’re going to say billionaire. I mean, nobody says billionaire Elon Musk or billionaire Sokolov or something like that, but for
Hovik Manucharyan: Especially if you read the press about Armenia. Now, I mean, in the U.S. political context, I guess there might be some left-leaning press that would use that term, but for the NGO-backed media in Armenia, that is like, okay, yeah, foreign investors, so-called, versus Russian billionaire, got up again. Sometimes they don’t even omit Armenian. But since you mentioned it, Samvel Karapetyan truly, I think, has been one of the biggest benefactors of Armenia.
In my opinion, he’s the most pro-Armenian diaspora, and he’s also an Armenian citizen, but we put Kirk Kerkorian on a pedestal for the right reasons, and Samvel Karapetyan deserves an equal, if not larger pedestal, because Samvel Karapetyan’s contributions have been significantly more, I would say, or maybe even equivalent, let’s say. Okay, let’s agree it’s equivalent. And all the projects that Samvel Karapetyan has done in Artsakh, in various regions in Armenia, have Before he was essentially pulled into politics, he was doing it out of the goodness of his heart, I believe.
I don’t know about his political capabilities, but it seems like Pashinyan is leaving no choice but for these very powerful people to go into politics to have some way to counter him.
Asbed Bedrossian: Hovik, we like to talk about mostly news and things like that. So that doesn’t mean that we should forget about the fact that there have been Armenian prisoners both in Armenia and Baku for weeks and months and years at this point. And one of them, of course, is Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, who was suddenly released from pretrial detention to house arrest. And that happened on June 4th.
After 344 days in pretrial detention, he was released to house arrest. Well, we thought that was a little bit out of the blue, but okay, at least Galstanyan can sleep in his own bed. He was charged with terrorism and other ridiculous allegations following his peaceful movement to protest the unilateral territorial concessions that were going on at the time in Tavush , if you recall. This was a couple of years ago in 2024.
The holy movement that he led on foot, walking over to Yerevan, which is not very different from what Pashinyan tried to do in 2018, walking from Gyumri to Yerevan. But of course, because this time it was Galstanyan doing that, he was charged with terrorism, thrown in jail. There was no trial. There were not even charges that were really pressed.
There were just allegations that just lingered for 344 days, and then he’s now released under house arrest, which doesn’t mean that the charges are gone. It’s just basically this sword of Damocles over his head so he cannot do anything.
Hovik Manucharyan: They’re very clever because 344 days is really interesting, right? Because I think there is this magic number where pretrial detention cannot be… If it’s anything longer than a year, I think that it goes into some statistics that are… If you have to hold someone in pretrial detention for a year, and there’s so many people in Armenia who are under that condition…
Dozens. Yeah. What does it say about your country? Essentially, we’ll have a talk about this, but Armenia is experiencing, I think, its own version of the Red Terror that happened after the Bolshevik Revolution in the early days of the USSR.
There were executions back then, but short of executions, Pashinyan is doing everything possible to put people behind bars. And now they’re doing it in a smart way. They’re putting pretrial detention, you know, we’re going to try you for five years. And then during that five-year trial, we might put you in pretrial detention for a few times, you know, and release you again.
Asbed Bedrossian: So all they have to do is renew it every two months because that’s the maximum pre-detention period, but they can renew it. And you know that the courts are packed with judges who are complete cronies of this government, so every two months they go through some paperwork and they renew, and the guy’s been in there for 10 months. Anyway, the point I want to make, he was released at the start of June.
In the middle of May, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, the OHCHR, I think, that’s if I have it right, informed Pashinyan’s office that the terrorism charges were not consistent with Armenia’s international HR obligations. This would have been a major problem for them. It still is a major problem for them. But we’re guessing that as a response to this notification, they decided a couple of weeks later to move him from jail to house arrest.
So they sort of commuted his sentence to become house arrest.
Hovik Manucharyan: I mean, there have been instances where they have done that, but then they found, oh, we found new evidence, and then they get them back in pretrial detention.
Asbed Bedrossian: It’s pretty amazing that Europe, which is the backbone of this Pashinyan government, comes back and says, what you’re doing is not consistent with democracy and your It’s not Europe,
Hovik Manucharyan: it’s the UN, but do you remember what European embassies and what the U.S. Embassy said, the statements they made in July of 2024 when Bagrat Galstanyan was leading his protests and the government used these unapproved stun grenades that actually resulted in people losing limbs. And what did the U.S. Embassy say?
What did European ambassadors or European offices say? They said, we advise all sides to avoid escalation. And some, I think it was the U.S. Embassy, that even criticized the opposition for using violent tactics.
So it is very difficult because these are real lives that are being ruined. These are real livelihoods that are being destroyed, families that are losing their heads of household.
Hovik Manucharyan: And we want to mention, we talked about this last week, but Aregnaz Manukyan, a mother of an underage child, I believe she has more than one child, but she was put in pretrial detention for high treason and espionage. Look, I’m going to bet that none of these cases eventually will lead in any guilty verdict. And if they do, they’ll be overturned by the international courts. But that is the tactic of the Pashinyan regime, which seems to suit perfectly the Europeans, because they need Armenia subdued and tamed, Armenian opposition.
Asbed Bedrossian: This is their way to remove opposition leaders from the streets, from freedom, so that they cannot lead a true opposition. This is basically their way to deflate any kind of an opposition.
Hovik Manucharyan: Anyone who can mobilize opposition. I have had the pleasure of meeting Avetik Chalabyan, and we’ve had the pleasure of interviewing him on our podcast during the protests, I believe, in 2022. I mean, he, looking at his education credentials, looking at his business credentials, exemplary. He was arrested in June and accused of inciting foreign officials to ensure that the opposition wins.
What does incitement mean when you have the evidence of J.D. Vance, Kaja Kallas, all the European Eurocrats, parading in Yerevan, singing Kumbaya with Pashinyan. And endorsing him as
Asbed Bedrossian: Prime Minister. And here they’re accusing one guy who he met in the Russian Embassy?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, so by foreign, the only foreign to Armenian is Russian. So, Macron is not foreign. J.D. Vance, you know, they’re ours, but Russians are foreign.
You know, I have to
Asbed Bedrossian: add one more thing. They accused them of inciting or soliciting support for the opposition, therefore bringing in foreign interference, etc. So, Avetik Chalabyan, I believe he said, So he went to the embassy because they had requested an update from the opposition. I am willing to bet, Hovik, that the NSS, the Investigative Committee, have everything recorded.
If there was anything to it, it would have been leaked and he would have been completely incarcerated. But that didn’t happen. Just a bunch of bullshit allegations to remove the guy from the streets for a few days.
Hovik Manucharyan: And it’s completely normal for foreign diplomats to talk to all corners of power in a country. I mean, God knows that all media people, all opposition people in Armenia have been in discussions with foreign diplomats because foreign diplomats have a right to know and it’s a free discussion. So if they’re wiretapping these foreign diplomats, then that’s also an issue that goes beyond just internal affairs of a country.
Asbed Bedrossian: Also in the news this past week was Vardan Ghukasyan, the mayor of Gyumri. He has been in jail for nine months. In pretrial detention. I call this Pashinyan Purgatory, basically.
The way we’ve talked about it, it should be clear that’s what it is. And he was moved to a house arrest this past week.
Hovik Manucharyan: And just to illustrate what I mean by this game they’re playing, we all know Armen Ashotyan . He served, I think, a year in pretrial detention for an existing case. And suddenly, they released him, and they put ankle bracelets on him, and they let him go under administrative supervision. Then just after the elections, or just the day of the elections, I think, or maybe a few days before, they arrested him again with new charges.
So they can always just throw new charges at you, which resets the clock, and they can put you in pretrial detention again. So they can do that until the end of your life. Unfortunately, a lot of this type of news is being drowned out by election-related scandals and election-related news. And in general, I think in the diaspora, a lot of apathy about following news in Armenia.
This last week,
Hovik Manucharyan: Major-General Davit Manukyan who incidentally happens to be brother of Gegham Manukyan, of the Hayastan Alliance. He was a commander of the Artsakh Defense Forces, and he is now a POW or a political prisoner in Baku, depending on how you look at it. And he slammed Pashinyan in a letter from jail. He said he’s being accused of, of course, various different things, like crossing the Azerbaijani border without permission, seizing part of the country and things like that.
And he basically said, if you don’t agree with these accusations, in essence, he said, then I urge you to respond. And your silence means that you are complicit with the regime in Baku. I mean, we’ve seen many evidences of complicity, so I have nothing but agreement with Davit Manukyan. And also like a month back, Davit Ishkhanyan sent a similar message to Pashinyan where basically they were told that the Armenian government has disowned you.
So there’s no reason to believe that the Armenian government is doing anything to advocate for the return of our POWs and political prisoners.
Asbed Bedrossian: And during press conferences every now and then, the media still asks either Pashinyan or Mirzoyan whether there’s any news on that front. And there’s a whole bunch of platitudes on their part that the Armenian government is diligently working on bringing these prisoners of war back. Nothing is being done. In fact, this is my feeling.
It’s just me saying it. To me, it’s clear as day that Pashinyan does not want these POWs back. He does not want them released, period. They are very popular leaders in Armenia.
They are very popular, there’s a huge amount of empathy, and they will spell trouble for Civil Contract politically if they are released and they come back to Armenia. And we cannot exclude the probability that Pashinyan and Aliyev are definitely on the same wavelength regarding these Artsakh leaders in jail from the very start.
Hovik Manucharyan: All we can say is freedom to our political prisoners and POWs, whether they’re in Baku or the colony of Baku, Yerevan today, and freedom to Ruben Vardanyan, freedom to Davit Ishkhanyan, freedom to Davit Manukyan. We cannot name all of them, but we empathize with their families and we can’t wait for the day when they will return. We can only sort of live with that hope and also carry on their struggle because the struggle lives on, at least in the little embers right now, here and there, in our podcast, in the opposition. But that is the form that the struggle has taken right now.
Asbed Bedrossian: That’s all we have, Hovik. Any further comments?
Hovik Manucharyan: Yeah, I’m looking forward to another week of no news next week in terms of Armenian politics. That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to talk about, but I have to give you a little bit more credit that, yes, I think that in my heart of hearts, I want to see more done by the Armenian opposition. Maybe I’ve been too jaded and I don’t know what they could do in this environment. Let’s hope that there is a sign of a movement picking up.
We’ll see where it goes. But it’s clear that the Armenian opposition right now is biding its time. I really believe that. But I think they need to reassure Armenians that they are in control of their plans.
Asbed Bedrossian: Thank you. That was our Week in Review, recorded on July 20th. Actually, we’re now finishing it on July 21st, 2026. For more information and all the links, everything we have, we’ll put them in the show notes, podcast.groong.org slash episode number.
I’m Asbed Bedrosyan.
Hovik Manucharyan: And I’m Hovik Manucharyan.
Asbed Bedrossian: We’ll talk to you next week.
Hovik Manucharyan: Bye-bye. Have a great week. Bye-bye.