Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed: Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Armenian News Network, Groong Week in Review for July 5, 2026.
Asbed: Hovik, should I wish you a happy Constitution Day under the current circumstances?
Hovik: What a cruel joke yes uh July 5 was Armenian Constitution Day and the kangaroo court Or whatever it is to be called issued their verdict one day before That uh clear um you know trashing of the Constitution if there ever was in Armenia But we’ll talk more about that later today uh so it’s one Of our topics let’s get going
Asbed: Yeah but first folks thanks for listening to our show. Your confidence nn us rewards our dedication to bring you intelligent and independent coverage Of Armenian news there are no corporate Or government shills here no political associations Just the two of us, Hovik and me, and our honest and informed beliefs. And that is it. Our mics.
Please consider supporting us. Go to podcasts.Groong.org And ideally you would become a sustaining supporter we can really use your help thank You let’s get on with the show Hovik, take the first topic today okay so
Hovik: The Armenian Constitutional Court We had talked about this in episode 563 the previous episode to this one With Dziunik Aghajanian about the aftermath of the elections there was a limbo period Where the Constitutional Court held I don’t know the obligatory hearings but That didn’t change any of the results that we all feared the On July 4th Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled to uphold the Results of the election and essentially deprive Prosperous Armenia of its votes And specifically in the form of invalidating the results from three precincts Which were a majority support for Prosperous Armenia and thereby cutting the votes For Prosperous Armenia by a few hundred votes which was just enough to put them Under the 4% threshold
Asbed: A million and a half people voted and 200 votes short to kick them out of
Hovik: The parliament I always try to stop myself from being too ranty It’s plain to everyone’s eyes how this happened and it poses a very tough choice for The opposition which we’ll talk about but as a result of this what I would say many In the opposition consider unconstitutional Theft of the elections Civil Contract will have 64 seats in The parliament giving them exactly The three additional parliamentary seats they need in order To achieve three-fifths majority in parliament And they will essentially not need any help from the opposition In lawmaking they have a carte blanche in most laws they want To pass they also gave one additional seat to Strong Armenia And Armenia Alliance each putting the combined parliamentary opposition At 41 seats that’s just one seat short of the power to block the government From making critical appointments like The Human Rights Ombudsperson and other constitutional appointments we can talk About the Supreme Judicial Council The Prosecutor General there are certain constitutional positions that are defined In the Constitution that require a three-fifths majority at the same time The regime can now pass any constitutional law constitutional laws are different Than the Constitution itself Many changes in the Constitution can happen with three-fifths majority But some portions of the Constitution require two-thirds which so far The government does the regime doesn’t have and that is basically the going to be The sticking point it seems like July 2nd was the last session of the The previous sitting of the National Assembly so my fear was that they would rule For elections now because they had two-thirds majority already and By elections I mean a constitutional referendum so that is the key sticking point That the ruling regime doesn’t have and I believe that they will continue to strive For by now the persecutions against the opposition that we’re seeing So with Dziunik Aghajanian basically we discussed whether The three-fifths majority might give Civil Contract enough power To actually make changes to the Constitution itself I honestly don’t see A direct way but other than changing some constitutional laws to be more In their favor
Asbed: Hovik, do you think that there is enough opposition power in the parliament To stop eroding Armenia’s sovereignty through further concessions to Azerbaijan?
Hovik: It’s not like the Pashinyan regime had any constitutional approval to do all of The previous concessions that it has done, Including, For instance, The handing off of the Goris-Kapan highway, Which is part of Armenia, to Azerbaijan without any Basically the Armenian Constitution mandates that any transfer of land be done Through referendum so if the Armenian government ever wants to formalize The transfer of land And transfer of territories which it already has de facto given to Azerbaijan a lot Of them it would require the ratification through a referendum at least If everything was done by law and I’m not a lawyer but that’s what I ascertain From watching the media and so the only thing that the What the regime currently lacks is a two-thirds constitutional majority and what The constitutional majority would be useful for is changing the Constitution parts Of the Constitution itself that the parliament is able to change And also authorizing constitutional referendum Now I don’t know uh we talked with Dziunik and I don’t know if she um she says that The government can still find a way to do that uh through To changing the laws here and there.
I think one thing that the government has already started To do in preparation for a referendum Is to reduce the list of voters Directly in the face of Armenian law, Which guarantees all citizens The right to vote regardless Of their residency status. Now they say that if you…
Are going to be absent from Armenia for six months then you will lose the right To vote and that is we know who that is targeted at and that is directly targeted At maybe Armenians who travel back and forth to Russia either for migrant work or For other purposes it’s easier to travel to outside of Armenia for A longer period closer to Armenia closer to the region than the United States For instance but that is the situation now but at least By the letter of the law, the regime currently lacks the Constitutional majority. So it remains to be seen how they will go forward with a referendum.
I still see that maybe sometime in the future after banning the opposition parties or maybe You know they will authorize a new election by Pashinyan resigning twice And they will then try to have a new election to get The constitutional majority they need or the other option that The Pashinyan regime will now have I think is to coerce to through compromise to Through threats through uh jailing continue continue jailing of The opposition leaders to coerce some of the um Members of the opposition parties to join their side and to at least For some important issues, such as a vote on a constitutional referendum.
I believe they know and they need a handful of votes, Maybe less than six to go from a three-fifths majority to a two-thirds majority.
Asbed: Right they have 64 right now as you mentioned and they need 69 votes I believe To form a two-thirds majority one of the things that was up in the air
Asbed: Until actually today was whether the opposition well Strong Armenia And Armenia Alliance were going to pick up their mandates in The parliament what happened there
Hovik: So both Armenia Alliance and Strong Armenia announced That they will take up their mandates they issued A lengthy I think both parties issued justification for their decision and Essentially they are framing it that the being in The parliament will give them more chances to continue the fight And both I believe mentioned that this needs to be coupled with a street movement That will come at an opportune time now When we talk about a street movement it can happen in two ways it can happen in The way that Pashinyan came to power which was through paralyzing the government And forcing the regime to resign at the time which led to fresh elections or After one year, because Armenian law requires a one-year period after if Pashinyan is elected, If the new prime minister is elected.
There can be no vote of confidence during the first year.
Asbed: So do you think that at present the opposition and When I say opposition it’s those two parties right that got Into parliament Strong Armenia and Armenia Alliance do you think that The opposition actually decided that it’s better to work through The legislative system taking up their mandates in parliament and That street action was not a viable option why is that well I think
Hovik: That street action alone Is not viable and my I can only speculate because we don’t know all the details But you know at the same time i defer to the leaders of the opposition Because they’re the only opposition we have so they must know something we don’t But I think that any change of government in Armenia just like it had happened In 2018 will require not foreign support but at least foreign acquiescence right So my thing my thinking is that If there is a revolution through the streets, Then there will need to be recognition of those results by friendly countries, Including Russia.
Because the first thing that will happen is EU and the West will rule for sanctions Against Armenia both on a country level and on the level of the United Nations So Armenia needs someone who can veto any at least U.N. level resolutions And I believe that regional powers and mainly I’m talking about Russia At this point are probably I’m wary of picking a fight with the West over Armenia at this point in time Although all the logic dictates that the West meddling in Armenia is not permanent Permanent meddling in Armenia and permanent conquest of Armenian by the West is not In the interests of Russia but I just think that they are prioritizing everything Towards Ukraine And unfortunately no revolution has happened anywhere without foreign support or at least
Asbed: Foreign acquiescence do you think that with the 41 seats of opposition in parliament
Asbed: Moscow feels that they have enough legislative veto over any kind of a peace That Pashinyan could try to sign with Azerbaijan so essentially let’s say that The 41 they have some kind of confidence that no peace deal will be struck Between Pashinyan and Aliyev in the next whatever years five years
Hovik: What we’re talking currently passion is narrative about peace is About complete capitulation to Azerbaijan and Turkey and thereby any projects backed By those forces and their wider network of backers including EU and the West and That includes TRIPP that includes a complete reorganization of transportation systems And political affiliation um I don’t think per se Russia would Be against any sort of peace deal but I don’t think that’s her primary concern As long as Russia’s interests are accounted for Then you know Russia should I don’t feel Russia is inherently against peace And again as I said right now is not going to be peace it is going To be capitulation and continued concessions by Armenia to Azerbaijan Turkey and The West To answer your question more directly I mean Russia I don’t think looks at elections In terms of how many seats it had and I don’t consider the 41 seats That got allocated to the opposition Are considered so-called Russian seats there are many voices in the opposition That are not blanket pro-Russian but Russia’s interests need to be accounted for and As long as Armenia is going against them then they’re playing With fire thereby also harming Armenia in the future which is my main concern
Asbed: Samvel Karapetyan proposed last week that The country’s leading opposition forces must set up some kind of A equal coordinating council that would discuss and take joint action against The Pashinyan government. He said he expects to meet these other leaders and finalize some kind of An arrangement after the Constitutional Court ruling, Which happened over the weekend. What do you expect? Do you expect anything?
Are these talks going on?
Hovik: Out of the interest of survival of The opposition those talks must happen I don’t I can’t guess as to The nature of the talks I don’t think anything has been public but I think The opposition will have some coordination they must have this coordination But it seems like at least in the forthcoming period in The let’s say next six months the opposition will will take their seats and And will try to Towards the upcoming battle. Like I said, I don’t believe that the entire opposition is subdued. I think that the fight continues. It’s just that the timing Of the next battle will be carefully planned.
And I think that may come around the time of when Pashinyan, Who has indicated already, He will hand over Tigranashen, Which is right in the middle of north-south communication on the Western side Of Armenia, And also the two so-called enclaves on the eastern side of Armenia as well, Pashinyan has indicated that he will hand over The opposition will coordinate its activities around those times so For now I think we can expect a tumultuous period there will be more arrests And Pashinyan will do everything to chip away at The opposition seats any way they can including We will mention those in a moment.
Asbed: They’re not coming. They’ve started today, as a matter of fact.
Asbed: Let’s take a break from that for just a moment. Let’s talk about European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Who visited Baku and Yerevan on July 1 and 2.
To advance the EU’s Peace Through Connectivity agenda aiming to integrate the region Into a transport corridor from Central Asia to Europe in Baku she focused On EU energy partnerships And unveiled this 200 million euro Global Gateway investment package prominently Featuring the Nakhichevan railway network In Yerevan, She countered Russia’s trade embargo on Armenian products By offering something she called Autonomous Trade Measures, Proposing to free 80% of Armenia’s exports to the EU from EU tariffs And additional financial Assistance as well. Now, for me,
Asbed: What was interesting to hear was the 200 million euro funding for A Nakhichevan railway network.
I couldn’t understand if the EU is trying to fund TRIPP, some of the the infrastructure that is being planned for TRIPP or is this A parallel project are the EU and the US actually in sync on who’s doing what With transit tracks in the South CaucasUS or alternately are we looking at some kind Of a quiet intra-Western competition between the US and the EU over The future infrastructure that’s going to use also transit through Syunik Have you heard about this I mean this was the first time i had actually heard about The 200 million euro um whether it’s a grant or a loan I don’t know quite
Hovik: Yet I think the EU has made its bet And I think earlier this year EU started vocally speaking about TRIPP and I think The entire east-West communication through Turkey And later Azerbaijan and Central Asia is the core of EU’s transportation strategy And as such I think that this is in preparation for that so we’re looking at The TRIPP that is only the Armenia part of this Middle Corridor But I believe this is basically EU’s efforts to make That Middle Corridor robust enough to handle its needs which is preparing For future war with Russia preparing for more um you know offloading Of any Russian gas uh And the EU has and energy dependencies.
Asbed: Let me also mention that you and I were actually talking to A nuclear industry expert yesterday and he was mentioning that the majority of The uranium being extracted these days is from Kazakhstan.
And we’ve heard a lot about natural resource extraction in a lot of the deals That are even though the one for TRIPP With Syunik had a component of natural resources between the US and Armenia So this Middle Corridor that some people also call The Pan-Turanic corridor some people also call The Zangezur corridor you know it doesn’t matter what you call it the deal is That they’re trying to extend all the way from Europe to The soft underbelly of Russia all the way to Kazakhstan, Central Asia to make sure that they have access to all those resources instead Of just Russia and also Russia should be preparing for war, to be honest.
Hovik: Yeah so this is an outright attempt to take over Russia take Over Russian um influence in the Central Asian region Which I think is more concerning to Russia than Armenia Because uh Central Asia has become more important actually I would say not more not For as much for the US but for the EU because If you remember two years ago France lost Access to nuclear energy markets from Africa multiple countries kicked France out of The out of their country in Africa so France made an immediate pivot and I believe That was also one of the considerations that led To Macron essentially influencing Pashinyan or forcing Pashinyan Or coercing Pashinyan to Announced that he you know that Artsakh is not part of Armenia So I believe this strategy strategy is is more important to EU than anyone else And this mainly it’s not just about nuclear but nuclear you know material And uranium and and Is going to be very important for EU in the future.
So this is the lifeline that the EU is building.
And as you mentioned, Our friend did mention that currently, Even in the US, Most of the US produced nuclear material and enriched nuclear material Is only allocated for federal or military use So civilian power plants civilian nuclear reactors are forced to look For other sources of obtaining the material Especially the enriched material and I believe that Central Asia is going To be really important for that as well so US plus EU are building that That lifeline and it’s not just about uh nuclear but also gas and energy Which I think those are also more important for the EU than than the US well so
Asbed: In Baku von der Leyen praised Aliyev for promoting peace and cooperation and I know, Hovik, That you would expect von der Leyen to also say something About human rights concerns in Baku, And that includes, Of course, Armenian POWs still held in Baku, The ethnic cleansing of Artsakh , The destruction of Armenian monuments, Christian churches and heritage. But did she do any of that? There was none of that.
So what’s interesting is that this peace and cooperation that she’s praising Aliyev About six years ago if we were to go back there were a lot Of complaints documented complaints from all quarters of Europe in the middle of The 44 day war but all of that is now gone and it’s peace and prosperity at The same time in Yerevan the West is backing Pashinyan’s government despite the fact That there is a huge and ramping Authoritarianism going on The stolen elections post election arrests we will talk just a little bit about That it’s it’s kind of crazy what’s going on in Armenia But they’re absolutely oblivious to any Of these things yeah I mean I don’t i I guess I don’t really have A question I’m just ranting as usual that the EU is prioritizing transit corridors For their own energy resilience Above all else especially Armenia security it is such a disposable commodity For them it is it makes me sick
Hovik: You know, and I think that’s an understatement because it’s really tough to be An Armenian nowadays and to be concerned about Armenia security And see all this happening around us.
Essentially we’re being trampled over And you know I would say Armenians consider themselves one Or more democratic countries in the region But democracy has lost its meaning completely completely has lost its meaning Completely we’re being sold at a slave market at the cheapest price possible To satisfy European desires and many would say that has been Europe’s modus operandi For all the last 500 years and any illusion About affinity with the West yes Armenia had a lot of cultural affinity Armenia has A lot about affinity to the values of Europeans at least the ones That were published in books in literature But all of that needs to go out the door Because we’re living in a new world And it is freaking tough To be an Armenian right now And to maintain a straight face.
And that is haunting us, I’m sure most Armenians.
Asbed: Hovik, von der Leyen said You can count on us. That’s a direct quote. She said to Armenia you can count on US let me be a hundred percent clear If war breaks out involving Armenia Armenia is going to get stomped and there’s not A damn thing that Ursula von der Leyen can do or the EU can do or even The United States can do to help Armenia there’s not let me tell you let me go more
Hovik: If if Ilham Aliyev kills off 99 of The Armenians EU will thank Ilham Aliyev decent prosperity For saving that 1% for the museum you will praise Aliyev for peace and cooperation And it is sickening but we’re discussing this with a straight face I don’t know how To convey those emotions without breaking down but at the same time it reinforces That Armenia must build up its own strength and not count on anyone To save them but it should build up allies and I think that there is some light at The end of the tunnel in terms of you know Russia being freed From future Ukraine you know military pressures as well as Iran resurgent Iran And those are our national allies like it or not If the alternative is going to be a servitude a thousand year servitude to Turkey And Azerbaijan and as a maximum as a province of Azerbaijan Under Aliyev’s rule not even Turkeys because Turkey even probably wouldn’t care About Armenia as much as Aliyev would So that is my emotional probably assessment of where things are but also I think That there’s a segment of pragmatism you know that I think that we all need to take Into account we yes we all feel insulted by The various geopolitical realities around US but To be insulted and then to commit suicide just to spite Russia or just To spite those powers that we thought would come and save US on a white horse.
I think that’s the wrong idea to have about Armenia right now.
Hovik: And to talk about the bailouts, right? So EU is waiving Customs fees on 80% of Armenian exports we talked about this you know For perishable goods Armenia has no reliable way of economically sending them to The EU it’s going to take two months to send any fruit any vegetables and some Of like especially flowers for instance Armenia had a For whatever reason Armenians decided to invest in a flower industry flowers are The worst type of thing you can invest in because If you can’t export fish, At least you can reprocess them and make them into canned fish and sell them.
You can make prunes out of apricots, but For flowers which is huge in Armenia for whatever reason that it also talks About how short-sighted Armenia’s investment strategy And development strategy has been in the last you know five eight years Under this regime that we’re not prioritizing industries that are more resilient To export issues
Asbed: Well, there’s a lack of ramping up alternative markets. If Pashinyan, For example, Really just wants to pivot, Doesn’t want to have anything to do with Russia, This is ignoring the fact that Russia is the biggest consumer of Armenian products And it’s going to take years to ramp up the markets that are resilient, That are dedicated to Armenian products. And none of that has happened.
Alternative I see right now is that let’s say these products are not going To make it to the market they’re going to die the only way that you’re going To keep these farmers or other businessmen in business it’s going to be bailouts And we’re seeing that already the 34 million dollars that immediately was sent To Armenia as an emergency for as it was essentially a bailout Okay that’s great but for how long how long can you do that
Hovik: And these are not free this is not free money this is not even uh uh you know Financial Your next generation is going to be paying for it and and even if it comes in The form of aid that means your hands are you know more commitments more concessions To the EU for whatever projects and I think that you know we talked About this last time but I don’t want to you know more political favors to the EU Against Russia so whether it’s in support of Ukraine and whatnot So so so i you know Armenia has no clear vision of where to go And it is completely now being dictated these policies are being dictated by the EU And Turkey and Azerbaijan all right so let’s move on uh the um now that
Hovik: The Constitutional Court has issued its verdict um the next day at 7 25 a.m Hundreds of National Security Service officials armed with machine guns And other deadly weaponry stormed various businesses and the home belonging To Gagik Tsarukyan he was arrested over 70 sites were simultaneously raided Uh and uh it was a spectacle uh if you can think about the number of people Who would be involved in such an operation
Asbed: And Hovik let’s emphasize these are masked uh automatic-rifle- And uh machine-gun-carrying people, SWAT teams
Hovik: Yeah i want to emphasize there are reports that Armenians in some positions In some border positions are not even allowed to um you know they need To be strip searched by Azerbaijan to go to their position or somehow they need To be uh approved to go but uh All of Armenia’s military might is being turned against the opposition So 2 000 agents uh I think as a conservative estimate were mobilized To do this operation against Gagik Tsarukyan and uh that’s double the amount That Russia used to do the Chechen terrorist operation uh you know so When there was a Chechen terrorist operation in Moscow and these are supposed
Asbed: To be I was trying to say that Hovik these are White-collar crimes these are not terrorist operations I haven’t seen a single site
Hovik: Where you know Gagik Tsarukyan had any illegal arms or was offering any resistance So it was all like you know they were allowed complete entry but just for The spectacle of it just to parade them in front of The media they use you know they use theater like this to scare people yeah And, of course, that is not the end. Serzh Sargsyan is now being threatened. His bank accounts, his assets are raided. It was also announced that there are fresh allegations of vote-buying against Hayastantan Dashinq and more suspects were arrested.
None of these have ever reached a court verdict and many of these have been Cases where the suspects were later released but it’s all this show is continuing And most Western media again I want to underscore this most Western media are are Playing along with Pashinyan and trying to present this as some kind of A objective you know he said she said thing and we need to give it time and That includes media funded by the West in Armenia
Asbed: So is this going to be life for the next five years?
Hovik: I don’t know. What are your thoughts?
Asbed: I’m terrified by it. Just from the perspective of doing a podcast every week that talks About this bullshit, week after week just terrifies me.
Hovik: Yeah, I think we are all concerned, but I think that this can’t last forever. This kind of repression can’t last forever. Once geopolitical realities change a little bit, there’s a shift. We will see Pashinyan’s regime crumble.
The the only issue is yes how long it will take And how many people will suffer how many people will lose their freedom in The meanwhile while taking part in this struggle and to be honest for many Armenians And you know I normally live in Armenia. I’m currently in the US, but I’m concerned, of course, about my own freedom as well. I know many friends who are now in jail. Sadly, the life of someone who doesn’t agree with Pashinyan is maybe sadly, Maybe it’s an honor actually to know these people, but maybe we’re next.
Maybe we will also be targeted. To me that’s a fight worth having and to many Armenians I think that this is a fight That you can’t give up so the only issue is when and how it will start to boil
Asbed: Over yeah well Hovik, Pashinyan himself was in Russia today and he that he was there
Asbed: To formally attend an EAEU industry policy council conference in Yekaterinburg and For the past two weeks Pashinyan has been trying to call Putin but No dice he hasn’t been picking up the phone So he finally called up Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin who met With him today as a matter of fact the Russians said that they expect The post-election government of Armenia To develop ties with Russia and maintain friendly And neighborly relations beneficial for both sides and there was news That Russia again proposed to build The next Armenian nuclear power plant now this news itself was not directly Correlated to any of the visit or anything like that but I found it interesting that On the same day the news surfaces again and gain some currency so you know In my mind there’s some kind of an association The Armenian side said there is no desire to exit the EAEU, The Eurasian Economic Union, And wanted to develop ties to get past the recent issues, Which was kind of interesting to hear that there’s an admission on the part Of Pashinyan that there are issues between Russia and Armenia Yeah, so that’s what I read from the visit.
Did you pick up anything from that visit?
Hovik: A few things. So, Putin is still holding off his recognition or congratulations to Pashinyan on his election.
But I think that that will eventually come and the sign that Mishustin is meeting With Pashinyan is an indication that yes that will eventually come but I think The next term that Pashinyan holds will be Will contain a lot of tension more tension between Armenia and Russia And Pashinyan will on one hand be coerced by EU To have more anti-Russian stances meanwhile out Of self-survival he will probably try to see how we can accommodate Russia and If there is any accommodation to Russian interests it will be at At the cost of Armenian interest so more Armenian sovereignty I’m not sure how That will take shape but you know the EU clearly is on a war footing with Russia So i I don’t see how how this is resolved other Than Pashinyan giving more concessions more promises to Russians If Russia accepts any of these promises I don’t think they will take them At face value but they might Work to delay some of the decisions and forthcoming sort of policy moves By Pashinyan that are going to be more outright pro-European.
Thinking more about the internal Civil Contract, you know, Armenian regime kitchen.
Hovik: I don’t know how interesting it is to me but I think we should mention that The Civil Contract party is already picking who its top leadership Is going to be, both in parliament, you know, various appointments. And the most visible element of that In Armenian media was this Rubinyan versUS Simonyan affair, right? Alen Simonyan is currently the head Of the Armenian parliament, the speaker of the parliament.
And there is indication that he was expecting to keep his seat but The Civil Contract party voted to appoint Ruben Rubinyan as The next parliament speaker and Alen Simonyan was clearly shocked he said That he would continue to support Pashinyan but he would leave politics There was also some news that he might be in line for the next president of Armenia, Which is a figurehead position.
Asbed: I think he declined that.
Hovik: He said he was not interested in that. And Rubinyan’s appointment is interesting because Rubinyan was the key person In negotiations between Armenia and Turkey we talked about his questionable past From previously when he was a student at Turkey but it’s clear That he has strong support from the Erdogan regime And this may have been essentially a concession to Turkey And more direct Turkish influence in Armenia meanwhile I think That still many see Alen Simonyan as a an aide or an ally of Pashinyan so when when
Asbed: The media asked Pashinyan about this Pashinyan said the decision by The Civil Contract party was a surprise to him so he didn’t really know what The next steps were I’m not sure how much I’m buying the fact that he doesn’t know. If he didn’t know, And there are a lot of analysts who actually believe that the demand to get Rubinyan On board was an external demand, like Turkey wanted Rubinyan. Do you think that Pashinyan’s Turkish and Azerbaijani allies actually blindsided him? And came up with this request and he didn’t know about it or is he bullshitting And he actually knew about it but he’s just saying you know yeah it was a surprise
Hovik: To him well it’s clear that the only reason that Pashinyan is in power today is Because of Turkey and Azerbaijan So I think they do have influence now maybe he was blindsided I don’t know I don’t Think Pashinyan by himself can maintain totalitarian rule so the The power for his rule comes from Turkey Azerbaijan EU and The West now all those forces decided that Ruben Rubinyan should be The next parliament speaker is Yeah I’m not sure I’m not sure if Pashinyan was blindsided or If he um unwillingly uh you know agreed to this uh But yeah it it doesn’t matter I think in the end it’s it’s it’s like he’s he’s part Of he’s a vassal and he will do what he’s told externally okay well
Asbed: Yeah well I’m a little surprised when you started the segment you said That maybe you weren’t that interested in it frankly I was interested In hearing all this I was thinking that Groong should offer to host a cage match Between Rubinyan and Simonyan you mentioned the uh look
Hovik: I don’t know which one is worse Alen Simonyan is known for ordering his bodyguards To hold ordinary passers-by who called him a traitor hold the hands and spit On them I don’t know if Ruben Rubinyan he looks a little bit like a llama So he may have that spitting instinct still in him but maybe it’ll be like A spitting match between Alen Simonyan and Ruben Rubinyan I don’t know You know especially with that beard I don’t know that That is his nickname i I cannot take any uh any official of this regime seriously But I think Ruben Rubinyan doesn’t have that brash um behavior that alain simon has But I think he’ll be expected to uh rule the parliament with an iron fist So there will be more repressions of the Armenian uh opposition in the parliament And but but Alen Simonyan had a way of doing it that he didn’t care about it he didn’t care When he was called a camel because of his spitting I don’t know if Rubinyan will be That resilient to insults or criticism so we’ll see It’s important to note that many of these people, Including Rubinyan, I believe, Didn’t even have a job prior to coming to power That’s right Their resume reads as, I was born and when I turned 18 or whatever, You know, When I finished my education I am now a leader of Armenia What is to be expected From people like this, Asbed?
I don’t know It’s a farce, It’s part of the Armenian tragedy that we’re living through They’re not
Asbed: The only people Yeah
Asbed: Okay hopefully for the final segment I think we should talk about this issue Of IMEI hardware devices we’re both technologies so this is An interesting area Armenia is moving towards A mandatory nationwide IMEI cell phone registry By 2027 Pashinyan’s government argues that massive amounts of hardware is entering The country undocumented bypassing customs and Uh that this this thing that he wants this project that he wants to set off would be A vital tool to crush the billion dram black market And capture lost tax revenues Pashinyan defends the initiative as A standard civilized regulatory practice but if you look at uh The world globally central state-run IMEI registries are completely absent In North America and Western Europe where would you say they are present
Hovik: I think I read about Turkey, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, and Pakistan as being It’s a pretty interesting company, right?
Asbed: Yeah, absolutely. We wonder where these ideas came from to Pashinyan. So the question that comes up is, Is this genuinely a routine economic cleanup of the shadow economy That Pashinyan is undertaking? Or is the timing at a time right now Where there are deep regional domestic instabilities in the country That this is indicative of A government that’s quietly seeking tighter internal social control what do you
Hovik: Think it’s obvious to me that this is all intended to make Armenia more more of A surveillance state it’s already A widespread surveillance you know it already has all the tools of A surveillance state we saw how opposition is being wiretapped left and right So this is just to cover The gap of anything anyone they want to essentially ensure that anyone any device That connects to the Armenian telephone company network is registered and they know Who it belongs to which will make it very easy to target for surveillance purposes But that comes I mean we know that for sure right I mean you can still do encryption And you can still do Signal and at least your communication might Be encrypted point-to-point but they will know who you’re talking to they will know Who owns that communication endpoint and that is a concern and more Than surveillance the concern is how the Armenian government plans to secure this Because it will also it is a gift to the attackers we saw how The data belonging to Armenian citizens was compromised during the war.
And even before and after the war, Azerbaijan regularly targets And Armenia’s enemies regularly target Armenian data.
If a foreign entity whether it’s a cyber criminal group or if it’s A foreign government they will know exactly which devices to target based On this data and knowing the track record for Armenia to secure data belonging To its citizens it is going to be one of the easiest one of The loWest hanging fruits for foreign attackers This reminds me that we should talk to Ruben Muradyan who we’ve had on our podcast Before he’s an expert in cybersecurity but I heard him speak on Armenian media And this is his concern as well not just surveillance itself but how this is A wealth of information that in the wrong hands it will be used To target Armenian citizens and you can bet That uh Azerbaijan is already developing plans and not just Azerbaijan but Even a midsize or A country like Azerbaijan can easily do this um Hovik some other cybersecurity
Asbed: Experts uh people like Samvel Martirosyan Artur Papyan have also pointed out at The the real deficiencies and weak points Of this project I mean essentially we are building a data lake here Of everybody’s digital footprint so if you were to get access to this data And it’s inevitable somebody will get access because Armenia is not that good At cybersecurity at present at least not the government um you will know Who is exactly where and how they got there and their their entire trajectory And just imagine if this falls into enemy hands
Hovik: And from a legal perspective, Legal analysts have also criticized this law for not being specific enough. For instance, I believe it talks about, First of all, the registry is going to be managed by a private corporation. So what kind of an auditing requirement are you going to have? What kind of security requirements are you going to put forth in front Of this corporation to ensure that they hold up all the privacy And security guarantees?
And the law also has some What do you call it a vague wording in it That you know this company could also provide some other services to the government And it’s not specified what other services so you know I’m pretty sure that The government is already building in capabilities to have real-time access To this data through this company and I’m pretty sure which companies are going To be involved maybe we’ll know soon but it’s the same companies that for instance Yeah, I’ll stop there, But it’ll be companies that are very close to the Pashinyan regime as well.
Asbed: Well, Hovik, You are very nice in not saying anything, But the cynic in me was thinking maybe just outsource it To Baykar Aerospace Industries, You know, Then you cut out the middleman so that the drones know exactly where you are At all times to target whoever they don’t like.
Hovik: Even if you had goodwill towards this type of policy, Knowing that the entire government is in the hands of foreign entities, It’s very difficult to trust even something that might be legitimate. But this This policy is illegitimate and we should say, To be fair, you know what the Armenian government’s justification for this was? They’re implementing this law to be compliant with EAEU standards
Asbed: Eurasian Economic Union okay well that’s that’s ridiculous look Hovik a lot Of people may be lost in the details of something like this Because they feel like oh this is technology jargon I don’t understand let’s just Let’s just make sure my Facebook app is working If your phone is lost for example you just call your telecom carrier And you say my phone’s gone help me can we recover it if we can’t recover it Then what can we do about it you you you do something right here Everything is falling in the hands of the government. The government can block you. You have to register with the government.
You can be blocked by the government if they decide that you are talking to people That they don’t like, saying things that they don’t like. Posting Facebook posts that they don’t like. All of this is going to be possible for them simply because you are required To register with them. The issue shows that Armenia’s government has become used to turning To these centralized digital control methodologies To solve routine economic problems.
And this is fundamentally shifting the power balance between the citizen and the state. For someone like me in the United States, that’s just unacceptable.
Hovik: And our advice to opposition oriented people is don’t store anything on your phone That you wouldn’t agree to hand over to the army and government especially When entering the country and even when inside the country and you would not like To be listened to even though you might believe that your conversations are private Metadata about your conversations is going to be monitored And is already being monitored I would invest in burner phones I would invest In more security and that’s why even though I don’t have anything to hide all Of my Signal chats have a default expiration that’s a very useful feature That you know you can implement that on WhatsApp also
Asbed: And various other messaging apps so look into those things if you are interested
Hovik: Expect the Armenian government to be more controlling a lot of people still sort Of assume That communications are you know just what do you call it inert you’re just saying Something but we know that this government is also you know taking things out Of context editing recordings just for the convenience of arresting you parading you In front of cameras and maybe they’ll release you in a year or so Or maybe they won’t but their interest is to put maximum pressure against The opposition right now
Asbed: All right let’s leave it there for now I just want to say if i become president Of Armenia I am dismantling the surveillance state that’s going to be job one all That AWS money that was granted to Armenia uh that went To putting together this entire surveillance state I’m dismantling that stuff i hope The next let me help you do that we can do
Hovik: That yeah i’ll be your uh yeah your security czar and i’ll do that
Asbed: Thank you for listening to this Week in Review. I know we’re ranting a little bit. It’s July 6, 2026. We’ll talk to you next week.
I’m Asbed Bedrossian.
Hovik: And I’m Hovik Manucharyan. Bye-bye. Keep fighting. Bye.