Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed: Hello everyone and welcome to this Conversations on Groong episode we’re catching up with former ambassador and diplomat to review the latest developments in Armenia. Ambassador, welcome back to the Groong podcast. Well, good evening
Hovik: Let us start this discussion by quickly talking about the Iran-US memorandum of understanding I started my morning today by reading an interesting article by Trita Parsi on Substack where he argues that Tehran now fears that Israel may restart the war before the October elections that are scheduled to be happening in Israel and Parsi suggests that Iran may view the new MOU not as a path to peace but as a pause that gives Israel time to reposition in southern Lebanon, weaken Hezbollah’s deterrent role and also rebuild the military and later essentially force Washington’s hand into backing a renewed confrontation So What do you think about this?
Was this a trap for Iran and did Tehran accept a diplomatic off-ramp or did it agree To restraint while Israel and the US gained time to prepare for more war?
Dziunik: Well, I think Iran did not get into any trap.
They do understand the situation realistically and they know that the current proposal of any Memorandum cannot serve as a basis for lasting peace it’s just a pause imposed by The US simply because there are elections coming and the Trump administration needs To strengthen its base back at home which has been shattered because of the Iran war And the As the Western powers and Israel so I think on all sides this is just a situation Where each of them has approached it with the clear understanding That this is simply a temporary situation trying to get the best out of it and For Iran I think the best is first Ensuring that the control of the Strait of Hormuz is registered politically as well As something that Iran and Oman would be carrying out And nobody else no other country will have any say in that particular situation some Of the frozen assets Iranian will be released A fund will be established which will guarantee or at least work Towards reconstruction of not only Iran but also some of the Gulf states That have been affected by the war so there is something they are taking out But they are looking at the situation I think realistically And they are recuperating whatever they have lost during the war and getting ready For a much bigger show that we will see sometime at the end of the year or beginning Of next year after the elections in the US and the US together With Israel is currently preparing for the For the next attack part of which will be a ground attack which didn’t happen At least the way they wanted it to happen it didn’t happen during this past period Of military actions that we saw against Iran and you’re right That Netanyahu wants continuation of the war but nobody’s going to let him do that Because that will be affecting Trump administration’s position there Netanyahu is trying to get as much as possible from this no-attack situation From Lebanon and also from probably position in Syria which we don’t hear much But I think in the background there are some things going on there as well
Hovik: Yeah it’s interesting to Trita Parsi’s opinions about the timing of all this Because the elections in the US Which are as you said are critical for Trump happen in November but the elections In Israel will happen in October uh so so you believe that Trump has uh the ability To hold off Netanyahu even let’s say until after the November elections do you think That will you know um i think so
Dziunik: I think so and I think That Netanyahu will be reelected no matter how many violations of electoral law Or anything needed for that purpose will be carried out the same as we saw In Armenia so in that particular situation I think it’s just that this rift That we see in the media between Trump administration and Netanyahu is simply Put there to bring some support back to Trump rather than keeping Netanyahu By his side he will be losing more and more votes which he doesn’t want now to do So we will we’re seeing different kind of scenarios being played out some for The public in order to get as much support as possible both For the elections in the US and also in the elections in Israel.
But again, None of them, Neither Trump administration nor Israeli administration, Are willing to swallow this bitter pill and forget about that, Especially knowing well that their positions simply rely on continuation of war.
Asbed: Ambassador, Iran probably knows 10 times as much as we do, So they also know that The US and Israel may be reloading for phase three Of this conflict, let’s say from December on, whenever it happens. How are they preparing for the next phase?
Dziunik: Well, I think they are preparing by, again, reconstructing The military sites and capacities.
Also, I think they are preparing plans knowing well that that might entail ground attack On the ways that they can respond so that they could stop that particular plan In its first instances And as well they are preparing for the country and the public for the continuation Of the war because they know that unless the public backs the government and The administration the regime in the country it will be very difficult to continue The defense of Iran and it will be easier for the enemies to blow up the country From inside We don’t hear much but I think they are working also on revealing The hidden cells in the country that are working against Iran and supporting The intelligence services both in Israel and the US like we saw last year after The 12 day war millions of Afghan migrants were sent out of the country Because they have been They have become the support base for Mossad and other actors.
So both militarily, Politically, Of course, Economically, Because all these frozen assets that will be released will go towards reconstruction Of the sites and the parts of the cities that have been devastated as a result of The bombardments from US and Israel.
But also working out on logistics of oil transportation when say The sea transportation will become more difficult like we saw with US blockade so As far as I know they’re working with Pakistan towards ground transportation routes To China which will be utilized For the support of all the necessary equipment materials and also export of the oil Which is very needed for China and the money that will be needed for Iran So they are working out different scenarios to make their position stronger in The coming third phase of this
Asbed: Are you detecting any changes in Iran’s red line around its northern frontier
Dziunik: With Armenia, with Azerbaijan, no, no i don’t think so Of course diplomatically they will show that they are ready to work And that’s why we saw Ghalibaf visiting uh Baku uh but i think what we don’t hear is The warnings that they gave to Aliyev That Iran will be very resilient in responding to any kind of action from the north That will be coming from Azerbaijan because we know On both instances Azerbaijani territory was used for attacks Against Iran Iran didn’t retaliate simply because it didn’t want to open A second front which was the intention from the US and Israeli side And I think this second front or the military or The ground military operation is the point upon which right now Israel And Turkey are fighting each other showing it as a step towards recognition Of Armenian Genocide so this is something that plays in the background and in The front we see This hurting each other’s position which is simply the cover up for
Asbed: The story well ambassador let’s turn our attention
Asbed: To Armenia’s post parliamentary election limbo sort of we we are currently In we probably don’t need to litigate The entire election campaign election day we we know where we are and at this point The Constitutional Court is hearing appeals from seven political parties challenging The June 7 election results. The court case turns on several questions, Whether the vote was free and fair, Whether the invalidation of three precincts changed the composition of The parliament or the incoming parliament, And whether the broader climate of arrest, Pressure, Selective justice before, During and continue until today made the election fraudulent.
What would you expect from this Constitutional Court? Do you expect a legal ruling? Do you expect a political one? Actually, What kind of a fair outcome do you expect from a court that is 100% packed With Civil Contract appointees?
Dziunik: Well, you rightfully mentioned that no one is expecting any kind of fair ruling From this particular Constitutional Court that was packed by the appointees From this Political party and even the process of appointment was done in violation of The Constitution and the laws in Armenia so the process itself was a brutal stampede Over the laws in Armenia and definitely the membership of The Constitutional Court does not give any reason to expect any kind of a Fair legal judgment coming From their side we know it will be politically imposed judgment probably veiled With some legal explanation registering the demands from the parties That have brought the case to the court but we don’t expect any kind of a change in The position because as many have expressed and I have stated it On multiple occasions This is part of this global game and those that have brought these people to power In Armenia are really reluctant to lose their position when they are When they think they are in the last chapter of their efforts to turn the tables And make the game favorable for themselves so I think That what we hear will not change the situation But the most important thing here is the public opinion and The public opinion is unequivocal that violations were unprecedented the steps taken By the government to ensure their reelection were illegal and unprecedented And there is no legitimacy in this coming government No matter how much our foreign partners as they call them will declare About their support and try to convince our public that these elections were fair And expressing the real opinion and the vote of the people it has nothing to do with The real opinion of the people it has nothing to do With the real voting we saw that and according to different estimates from 160,000 To more than 300,000 votes were violated so It brings many questions to the table But I don’t think with this composition of the government and the legal system That we see we will get Honest answers to these questions.
But for the public, the issue is closed. The government is illegitimate. So whatever steps they take will not get their support. And it makes the steps that they need to take upon the pressure both from Aliyev And Erdogan and as well as the European partners.
It will be difficult for them to take. Because the public will not digest it easily The Constitutional Court, as stacked
Hovik: As it is with full Pashinyan supporters I’ve seen a lot Of opposition members put some trust in the fact That these individuals will eventually hold true to their legal oath That they have taken rather than being complete loyalists To Pashinyan I was watching the Session and one of the most important aspects of it which is very clear-cut For anyone to see is that simply by invalidating the results of The three precincts they denied Prosperous Armenia their place in parliament And therefore Irreconcilably they have altered the the intent of the people and the makeup of The parliament so it seems like a very open and shut case and on Whether these elections truly represent the will of the people do you think That this issue, do you think that Prosperous Armenia has a chance Of getting their votes back as part of this session at least maybe like as A minor outcome i mean Pashinyan will still have a majority But it’s very clear that he’s going towards if not A three-fifths majority he’s going towards A two-thirds constitutional majority what do you think about is there some hope For maybe Prosperous Armenia getting their stolen votes back
Dziunik: I would love to see That happening but I don’t think that will happen and The matter of fact is that this current government is getting ready for The referendum for the change of the Constitution and for That purpose they cannot allow a simple majority in The Parliament I think they have some scheme worked out in their mind together With their Western mentors how to Circumvent the law requiring direct referendum public vote on the change of The Constitution and that they have to achieve through different changes in The legal structure.
So for that they need the three-fifths to carry it out And that’s why I don’t believe that they will easily give up This possibility that they have created openly and explicitly showing That elections were violated and the votes of The people were simply discarded making the full election totally unrepresentative Of the will of the people But because, As I said, They have some tasks that they have to fulfill, Commitments that they have to fulfill, They are in need of holding these three-fifths in order To pass these legislative acts.
And that’s the reason that they just threw the Prosperous Armenia out of The parliament to ensure the three-fifths that will guarantee this kind of a very Dubious but a possibility for them to bring the text of the Constitution The full future Constitution that they want to pass to the table And possibly have it voted in the parliament rather than going to the referendum Which is required for the change of the Constitution but but
Asbed: That is unconstitutional right
Dziunik: It has to go through the parliament but then if they change certain laws To may bring the possibility of accepting it without going to referendum And they will claim it as legal But they will need two-thirds majority Not necessarily they can change the law To make it pass By three-fifths rather than two-thirds or they hope that they can get some of The probably opposition members to their side in order To garner this two-thirds vote. I have no clue what they can do but nobody I think in their mind In Armenia can think that they will be stopped by saying it’s unconstitutional.
Brutally violated the Constitution already several times even By giving Armenian territories to our enemy And nobody no matter how many times we shout That it’s unconstitutional they simply do whatever they are told to do that’s The democracy that we’re facing right now
Hovik: In very big quotes and So given the outcome that is apparent to many of us is
Hovik: The opposition ready for the next phase and what what would A serious next phase even look like because many are criticizing We’ve heard some say that there is a secret plan for the next stage if The Constitutional Court sides with Pashinyan but we’re not seeing any evidence of That on the ground so is the opposition too late or is it not preparing the streets For the upcoming battle or everything is still in front of us as they say
Dziunik: Well I think we’re too late in stopping some of the things developing And we have been too late already five years even during the 44-day War we were too late But things are moving as they are moving so the public understanding of The situation changes it changes very slowly Regretfully and it changes every time when we get some something just dropping On our heads unexpectedly and I think this outcome of the election for some of The opposition members were that shock that they experienced and they are coming out Of the shock right now The positive thing is that they right now understand that it’s not a party issue or A certain movement issue it’s an overall national survival issue and That will help them to get together in working out some kind of a cooperative plan Or cooperative Actions that they will have to carry out together otherwise we will not be able To stop this government from just bringing our country to its demise So I think they are putting some hope probably in the ruling of The Constitutional Court but as I said those who know this government and The people sitting there well They understand it’s unrealistic and also it’s not part of this global plan As I explained we have a bigger war coming probably beginning of next year and for That they need this government here that will provide them with the TRIPP To support militarily through transportation logistical support The occupied territories of Artsakh from where The ground attack is supposed to happen against the northern parts of Iran So nobody is going to give up those plans simply because our opposition wants To have a legal ruling you know how these global powers work and the centers that are charting these plans they don’t care whether there will be Armenians living In this territory or not they have their own hegemonic plans And they want them carried out So I think that we will see another disappointment in some parts of opposition Which is natural to happen but that’s part of the recovery mental recovery The psychological recovery for the people of Armenia those Who naively believed any words that these members of the government were Trumpeting During the election campaign period I think they will come to their minds After calculating their losses as a result of the restrictions that The Russian Federation put on the export of Armenian produce.
So I think that will come in the next several months and that will bring The discontent and the criticism in the country to unprecedented levels. And I think that’s where the opposition has to be ready to take Action when the right time comes.
I think this government is trying to instigate some kind of a unrest that will bring The opposition to the streets in order to Decapitate the the movements and leaders are in order to take them out of the of The streets that will kind of neutralize the opposition field and make their efforts In passing this kind of a unconstitutional new Constitution into into referendum But I think that that understanding in the opposition is very Very vivid and they know that what’s the real intent of this kind of actions that The current government is trying to take to bring the opposition to the streets But I don’t think they will give in to these efforts very easily
Asbed: Ambassador, Many analysts have pointed at the opposition as a force that’s reacting to Pashinyan And the ruling party, But not offering a vision of its own for the future of Armenia. So can this current opposition form a common vision Of Armenia encompassing relations with Russia, the EU, The so-called peace process that’s going on with Azerbaijan, And even this normalization with Turkey?
Dziunik: You know I don’t think it’s an issue of a common vision The common vision is there it’s just a matter of explaining it to the public and The danger of the actions that the current government is taking And their continuation for the survival of both the country and The nation I think that’s what the people don’t want to believe That this devastation that this Demise of our nation will come if they continue supporting this government. Because some of them are dependent on the positions that have been provided by this government. Some of them have prospered during their reign. Some of them are really afraid to lose their jobs.
Some of them have their sons serving in the army and they are afraid that any kind Of military action will start and their sons will have to go to fight So there are different different cases and different issues and it’s very difficult In many instances to convince to bring to that full understanding That whatever they are being presented by the current administration Is just another lie simply to gain their support they will understand it as I said When they get hurt regretfully that’s the situation we saw that With small businesses I think last year we had many coming out and saying That we were wrong in supporting this government in 21 and I think we will hear The same rhetoric in the coming months from different producers Be it the agricultural producers or the processing of these agricultural Products Or small businesses or even big businesses or large businesses that will not be able To export their products to their usual market and get the money That they were accounting on And start understanding that Europe is not going to open their doors wide And say please come in and do whatever you want Because they will be losing their own farmers and their support And they have their own elections coming so it’s a big and difficult scheme That we have been put into but that’s part of their plan they want To get Armenia out of the Russian orbit And as I mentioned in some of my interviews they promised cold winters and The devastating economic situation to Armenia and Armenian people both in the OSCE By the US ambassador there and many others.
So this is what is coming to our people and Until this happens they will not probably come to their minds.
Asbed: So so we’ll talk a little bit about the Russian warnings in a moment But one final question on this topic of post-election if as we expect The court is going to make a ruling that is going to continue the current status quo And Civil Contract is going to become the ruling party again Should the opposition parties take up their parliamentary mandates even If they consider the vote was fraudulent? What’s your opinion?
Dziunik: Definitely. I am against them not taking their mandates because first they have A much bigger role now in the parliament than in the previous one.
And secondly, this is a weapon they can use To when the time comes to oppose the current government and also I vote it not For them to just throw the mandate away the fight goes on the battle goes On nobody said that it will be an easy job I know it is sometimes very insulting When you hear this Rhetoric from the ruling party and they do it on purpose to insult people On personal level but I think that’s what and you know it in the US That they are just washing their dirty linen out in the public but that’s part of The political establishment if you go into political struggle you have to be ready For all of that and not take it personally I think that’s another thing that our opposition is not yet used to Because you know respect dignity is something that they are used to And also expect others to behave accordingly But these people this group has been trained and orchestrated To use these particular tactics to make them Very hurt and get their way in passing whatever they want to have passed But that’s part of the game they have to send people to the parliament Which have thicker skin as we say and which can respond to properly and we have some That have already got this training through difficult times And I think they can be very good tutors to the newcomers But I am totally against them even thinking of not taking the mandate because And they try to explain that if you take the mandate you make their kind of The elections and the government legitimate I’m I don’t think so it has nothing To do with it they are the owners of the votes that were given to them and they have To work out for those votes right
Hovik: Dziunik can I just make a commentary about the this belated realization That people are starting to feel and will be probably even feeling more one Of them is going to be the Rushed health plan that the government introduced there’s already news That it is already out of money so they pumped in like millions of dollars more Into it but there is wide-scale acknowledgement That come come the fall they are actually going to change the coverage so That people who are lower socioeconomic standards will not make it So they will they will probably reduce the coverage of some of the people by and try To balance the budget for that plan that way but you know they got they got they got The boost they needed for the government got the boost they needed from From this during the election so I believe there will be many more things like That coming but one of the ones I think it’s worth covering I was just following
Hovik: The Facebook and there is a lot of panic about this new plan that The government wants to introduce where if you have a phone that you know all The phones have to have their IMEI number registered with the government Or else it will not work in Armenia So that’s a new plan that this government is planning on introducing it is alarming But where were all these people who are now commenting on Facebook when all of The opposition was being wiretapped without any restraint When they were publishing pictures of Robert Kocharyan trying to leave the airport And yes it didn’t affect them it affected Robert Kocharyan but Do you believe that Armenian society still has any kind of self-defense mechanisms Because it seems like people react only when it personally hits their pocketbook And it personally hits them granted also I want to say that this this this mechanism Of blocking the IMEI unless it’s registered with the government is A completely totalitarian measure and it’s only in place in it’s not in place In any country that would consider itself democratic even if That word lost its meaning nowadays it’s clear that we’re in totalitarian regime In Armenia but why are the people so late in waking up and Do you think that it’s too late for people to wake up?
Dziunik: I don’t think it’s too late for people to wake up, But it’s normal and natural for any human being to think That whatever happens will bypass them and they will not be affected. And that’s the reason that we saw these election results as well.
The worst thing with this registration is that all these numbers will be Capped with a private company and it’s not only government it’s a government rule That will be passed but the company that will be the provider is going to be A private one so there are multiple issues Of control surveillance Probably providing this data To foreign intelligence services There are a lot of doubts there and questions but one thing can be stated That security personal security of the people in Armenia will be at risk So there will be no privacy there will be no thinking that you are not Under surveillance though even many who who have Being critical of this government they they do really understand that they are Under total control I mean surveillance from this government but that is also part Of this fear campaign which will be providing which will be trying To create the right atmosphere for the outcome of this coming referendum That they want to create So this is another step towards that so people would think oh we are Under control we’re under surveillance they would know what we do Who we meet how we behave so let’s be very cautious and not do something That will hurt us so this is part of this campaign as well all right well
Hovik: The Armenia Russia rift is entering a more dangerous phase and uh June came And went by and Pashinyan was saying well after the elections I already have a meeting With Putin and I will go to Moscow and I will sort everything out but nothing like That happened in fact in June Russia expanded restrictions Of Armenian exports culminating in a ban on all fish farms Or all fish farms serving the Russian market it is a very large amount of exports From Armenian agriculture production.
In the past week, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin warned that Armenia cannot deepen ties with The EU while retaining the benefits of the Eurasian Economic Union Membership suggesting that Yerevan should choose between the two exclusive paths And he also asserted that Russia had legitimate interests in the TRIPP route saying That TRIPP would benefit from Russia’s participation and Realization seemed unlikely without it given Iranian And Chinese concerns i haven’t heard chinese government officials speak about TRIPP But there is this widespread speculation or i guess belief That this TRIPP project is also an attack against Chinese trade routes Meanwhile the national security chair Dmitry Medvedev added warnings About consequences of a break with Russia and said that the West is using Armenia as A tool against Russia has Pashinyan crossed certain Russian red lines And what are they because we’re trying to understand them and Or is it moscow drawing new ones to adjust to new realities in the South Caucasus For example trying to get a piece of TRIPP In exchange for accepting Pashinyan, another Pashinyan term in Armenia.
Dziunik: Well, I think that Russia was tired of the lies that this administration was presenting To them, Trying to cover up their actions that were actually targeted Against Russian interests in Armenia. And very steadily moving towards the West and towards NATO, NATO’s presence in Armenia If they believed after the war and before the war that this government is comprised Of people who are not knowledgeable not skilled so they are making mistakes etc So this kind of a naive belief was encouraged also by Pashinyan’s acts and Performances that they put there.
During the war, They were, I think, Fed with the information that this is the way they are trying to fulfill the plan That the Minsk Group has put forward.
But Russia saw that it’s not the plan, But it’s resulting in the full loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. and later on they were thinking that they have time until 2025 in order to kind Of calm down the situation and keep control of the development and they suddenly saw That in 23 Armenians were ethnically cleansed from Artsakh and The full blame was attempted to put on the Russian peacekeepers Whereas the full intention of those actions were trying to Get the Russian military Into action and opening up a second front against Russia in our region And we saw later on the Georgian officials stating that they were being pushed also To open up a second front against Russia in that particular period So I think this accumulative information, Understanding, Real analysis of the situation and comparison to what we see in reality and The state of affairs on the ground brought them to the understanding That they have been too compliant in a way With the Armenian government which resulted in the wrong understanding in The Armenian public of the support from the Russian side towards this government And all the Vectors were directed at the Russians and which was being manipulated also By this government to increase the anti-Russian sentiment in the country So this was enough as we say this was the last drop in the cup and they decided To play it openly because they know also that this Western As i explained this Western plan has entered its last chapters And when Europe is openly stating that they are getting ready for the war With Russia Russia simply cannot close its eyes And say no no no we don’t see anything happening in Armenia When Armenia is being prepared to become a ground for anti-Russian actions so That way they said i’m sorry we are not going To finance your anti-Russian movements it being Presented in a different picture but that’s the intention if you are getting money From us if you are using our market if we are financing your country If you have benefited from this war by redirecting the Exports from our country and using it to gain money and you are using it Against us we will be just stupid to continue this effort And that’s what’s being presented and I I think the Eurasian Council was pretty clear that guys, it’s your decision But make sure we know exactly what you’re doing so make a decisive action And say we are standing with Eurasian Economic Union or we’re moving Towards European Union because you are saying one thing to us and Then doing another thing which is hurting our security which is Actually bringing many issues to the table which bring into question Where your loyalties are so this is something that we have to be clear on When we’re not going to play your game in this particular situation So this is what is happening the rift is there the rift will continue until there is A clear understanding from our side that Yes we are either staying with Eurasian Economic Union or we are putting it To public decision and then we’re clearly moving to the European Union anybody In their mind knows that it’s not there is no prospect of any membership for Armenia In any European Union and European Union is a big question whether In 10 years there will be such a union in place Or in whatever shape that union will be Because right now they have lost their political and economic power And I’m not speaking about military and they are trying to stand on the surface and stay On surface and stick themselves into some negotiation table so That they will be part of the coming Global structure and have their position there so this is these are big questions And they are not going to lose anything or waste anything from their side in order To support Armenia that’s not their intention
Asbed: Ambassador the current Russian measures are already painful enough but what happens If Russia escalates from the current restrictions to the issues Of gas pricing remittances labor migration banking Or even freezing Armenia’s Eurasian Economic Union access what kind Of options does Yerevan have
Dziunik: To mitigate those issues you know we don’t have any options it whatever the Whatever the government presents will be more dependence on Azerbaijan Which will be getting money from us to enrich their own coffers by reselling us The same Russian gas so the same way Azerbaijan resells the Russian gas to Europe And Europe claps and claims Aliyev to be their trustworthy partner in the region So I think it will simply increase the economic dependence on Turkey and Azerbaijan Which will mean more demands from our sides and from Armenia and what we will hear From the current government is that in order for us to survive we have to give it in That that’s the that’s the Type of behavior we saw last seven years and we will be seeing in The next coming years if things don’t change.
Asbed: So if we don’t have any real options, Would you say that Pashinyan has essentially miscalculated or At least mistimed this Western pivot?
Dziunik: No, that’s what West wants from us. They want cold winters and devastation of Armenian economy simply out Of Russian participation and presence.
That’s what they want the same situation that Moldova is in now they want it In Armenia so they want total dependence on their wills and they want Armenians to And you know Armenians If economic situation is not good enough they will migrate out in order To get some place to Finance the survival of their families so it will mean depopulation of Armenia And then repopulation of it by the so-called Azerbaijanist change Of demographic situation so they will have Full control of the area by divide and rule policy so this is The total plan no Armenia for Armenians it will be just a territory in which the The West will be in full control and they will do whatever they want
Hovik: Yeah i think that you know Asbed to answer also your question i think The other another way to ask your question is is Pashinyan trying to calculate With Armenia’s interests in mind and i think Dziunik’s answer was that it’s uh The regime is basically implementing uh the policy of the EU
Asbed: Which essentially i i heard what’s going on is pure colonialism so um the south Is basically being middle easternized where you know it’s a bunch of roaming tribes With uh no nations Lines arbitrarily driven by england and france and whoever um so yeah so Ursula von der Leyen
Hovik: Is going to be in Armenia tomorrow July 2nd and then she will fly off to Baku Where she will meet with the true strategic partner of Europe what is she going To say and do in Yerevan what does she really want with Armenia well i think
Dziunik: The first visit is to Azerbaijan and then to Armenia oh okay yeah today she is In already in Baku And I think that’s the main purpose of the visit, not Armenia. Armenia is just an attachment to that visit in order to show their support To this so-called European course of Armenians that were registered during The last election according to their interpretation of the situation. But I think the main issue that they will be discussing is Related to the supply of gas to Europe. You know that the situation with gas and gas storages is becoming more and more critical.
And I think that they will be also talking about certain conditions that The Azeris would like to have fulfilled.
For the for the implementation of their own commitments that will be paid off From our side so this is this is again playing out the same chain that Azerbaijan And Turkey are putting demands for the implementation of the commitment That they have against this Western powers which will be paid off by Armenia So this plan is being played out And our current government has put itself, our country and our nation In this I don’t even know what to call it this survival pattern from Which we cannot get out of unless we just break it off and get them out of The governing positions so this is what is happening she is coming to Armenia simply To show Some support to Pashinyan and also to showing the Russians That this is our territory that’s another issue so this issue
Hovik: Of cold winters I mean it’s not it’s not only rhetoric right it’s not a joke Both Biden administration officials have said Armenia must endure A few cold winters I think I’ve heard commentaries I mean well it’s not hard for me To imagine that the brutal cold winters we had in the early 90s will sound And feel like Disneyland compared to the potential that Armenia is going To face right now Is the Armenian public being told the real cost of Armenia’s geopolitical games And adventurism and what will it take for Armenians to understand what will it take For the opposition to be able to make this drive this point to the Armenian public And help change course before things you know go too far
Dziunik: The opposition was making this point well enough during the campaign period And i think Many people understand the real cost that we will be facing As you rightfully mentioned whatever we have seen in 90s will be just an easy game In comparison to what we can see now because what the plan is is To make us totally dependent on others which we didn’t have in the 90s and also in The 90s we had this moral Understanding of why we are suffering this situation and paying this cost Because we had a bigger national idea of survival and of a part of our homeland That is struggling for self-determination and we have To support support it nowadays is just killing your identity that’s what put on The table You don’t have to be an Armenian you have to forget about your history you have To forget about any kind of independent thinking you have to simply be subservient To Turkish and Azerbaijani wishes Open your doors to whoever wants to come in and get whatever they want from you.
So this is totally against any Armenian understanding of our nature. So this is just turning yourself inside out. It’s impossible to understand. But I think for many in The public they don’t really believe whatever they’re being explained that’s that’s The real issue here and I think they will start believing only when As I said something hard drops on their heads and they wake up And say oh we have been told this But we didn’t believe this will happen that’s why we supported and wanted voted For this People.
I think what the Russian restrictions are doing and will do in The coming months is just opening the eyes of those many that didn’t want To believe whatever they were being presented and they took it as something that, Okay, They’re just saying it because it’s a campaign period and then they want To gain votes.
But just to bring you the news from today on even the The water supply is being restricted so we’re already starting to go back to the 90s With worse situation because then we had a government that was a national one And serving the national interests of our people and our country now we have A government that is providing services to our enemies
Asbed: Ambassador, Since you and Hovik took us to the stone age since independence, Back to the early 90s, I want to take us forward, I guess, to the middle ages. Back in 2013 Serzh Sargsyan did a sudden about-face from years of negotiations with The EU for an association agreement.
And then Sargsyan met with Putin in September of 2013 and together With him announced that Armenia was joining the Russian-led I think it was called the Eurasian Customs Union back then and then A year later it got renamed to the Eurasian Economic Union That whole affair was really kind of sudden it felt to many people That happened overnight it pissed off Brussels even Though Sargsyan later hammered out CEPA a comprehensive And enhanced partnership agreement with the EU in 2017.
Um you’ve been there throughout all these things you you were a diplomat even back Then Does the current turmoil on rush in Russian Armenian relations bear resemblance Or any kind of parallel with those events back then except that you know In my view Pashinyan is willing to gamble the house so to speak While Sargsyan was not willing to cause as much pain in fact i don’t believe That Sargsyan was known to for any kind of a pivot to the West he was continuing And expanding the foreign policy of complementarity that started In Kocharyan’s administration well
Dziunik: Yes there was some kind of an unexpected element there with the announcement That we’re joining the Eurasian Customs Union but The direction was not a surprise we have never said that we’re even inclined At getting any membership in the European Union so The thing was that European actors looked at this process As something like stepping point towards becoming an associate member To European Union as if taking a political direction towards the European Union And becoming a satellite to this organization which was not the case in our side So and I think this whole Noise that we heard then was because Of their understanding that they have succeeded in getting Armenia under their orbit And suddenly Armenia just drop off from there but that was not the case now Where they succeeded in bringing A group to power in Armenia which is actually doing what they wanted then to be done And that’s what is causing concern on the Russian side because they saw the result Of those actions both in Ukraine and in Moldova and they were doing the same In Belarus and we saw in 2020 their attempt at Color revolution there which did not succeed and the same plan was working there So I think the comparison is not right because we have a group here that from The first day on when they got to power they have been doing what the Europeans Or not simply Europeans because they are also part of this Western global scheme This scheme has charted for us, for our country and our people and that means An anti-Russia and anti-Iran under total Western control and becoming a platform For their future actions for the continuation of their hegemonic power and For control over the Natural resources not only in the Caucasus in the Caspian but also in The Central Asia so this is this is part of this whole scheme as i explained and The comparison is not is not correct in that sense because though we have The same actors but the intentions and the way of action and the direction is not The same
Hovik: Let me play a devil’s advocate role and say that back in the 2010s Armenia Of course despite besides having a non-treasonous leader also had Artsakh control Of Artsakh and that was a major playing card and a major source of support For its being a subject in geopolitics rather than being an object Now with the loss of Artsakh how would you respond to criticism saying That Armenia no longer has the leverage to have some kind of a balance and it needs To choose a side and many are saying that even choosing The European side is legitimate and if Armenia had A responsible non-treasonous leadership
Hovik: What would a responsible foreign policy look like and we have to acknowledge The facts on the ground Artsakh at least temporarily is lost so Armenia has lost A lot of physical leverage and agency but given this degraded status Of Armenia geopolitically what would The Armenian responsible foreign policy look like today?
Dziunik: You know the degraded status is not simply because Artsakh was lost but Because it was given away it was given away and given away by your own government And that’s that’s that puts your government into very Doubtful situation in the eyes of international actors so there’s no question
Hovik: That this government is treasonous and they need to be prosecuted to The maximum extent of the law but assuming that happens assuming we have A new responsible leadership that comes along we have new facts on the ground
Dziunik: And how to deal with that well if you have new and responsible leadership That acts according to your national interest You will be able to regain your legitimacy as an independent actor in The international field by simply serving your own interests And Armenia’s interest means that you cannot simply take sides especially a side That is currently sinking and the side that is sinking is the European Union The European side the West is sinking the world is changing The multipolar world is already in place whether we want to accept it Or not it is already in place and luckily according to the policies carried out By former Armenian government Armenia happens to be in the beneficial part Of this multipolar world so we have to take advantage of that position But it doesn’t mean we have to stop working with either European actors Or the US Or any other actor the world is very big we have at least in more Than 85 countries diaspora communities which are very honored and trusted members Of their countries so we have to work with the majority of the world and That will bring Armenia back to its feet because the diaspora does not want the loss Of their own motherland Yes ours are we are weakened extremely weakened by the loss of Artsakh but what is In plan right now with this current government is the loss of Armenia In its totality And with the responsible government you can survive And small countries can survive better than the bigger ones Because you can maneuver easily and given as I said The presence of our communities in many countries especially in The Western world we have a legitimate leverage to present our positive relationship With those countries to our partners without raising any concern That this relationship will be worked out or used against them as Against their security or against their economic Positions so this brain puts Armenia in a very unique situation that will If you work properly will even turn out into a political bridge in certain cases Between these polarized parts of the world that will eventually come Into this multipolar structure and try to work out some Rules of behavior and patterns of actions for the whole world community to go on in the future.
So we have powers that are currently purposefully being demolished By this current government because these are our strengths. And they make Armenians very strong in their positions And our positions have usually in The past were very legally justified it was difficult to argue against our positions Because they were based on international law they were based On historical legal grounds which were undoubtful and you cannot argue against them
Asbed: Okay ambassador we have one final topic and that is the Israeli recognition of The Armenian Genocide which happened over this past weekend the government voted To recognize the Armenian Genocide and soon the full Knesset is going to Foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar had announced last week that he would bring The recognition to a cabinet vote and the bill passed unanimously. He said that Israel joined 32 countries that have fulfilled a moral duty By recognizing the historic Truth and rejecting attempts to deny it. He also said that the facts of this horrifying genocide which took place over A hundred years ago are not up for debate.
When asked by the media what he thought about it, Pashinyan responded that no response was needed by the Armenian government and That weaponizing the Armenian Genocide was not in the interests of Armenia. First of all, Please share your thoughts about Israel’s recognition and why now, What’s in it for whom, and what’s going on with this act?
Dziunik: Well, first I would say that it’s shameful that Israel hasn’t yet recognized The Armenian Genocide. They had to be one of the first countries to do so, Knowing well where even the term genocide came from.
And based on which case it was created by Lemkin I know that Israeli government In different occasions during the last decades has taken up the issue but In all those cases it was politically motivated and regretfully this time it’s not An exception I look at it as a bargaining chip between Israel, Turkey, and the US In the preparation for the coming war against Iran and forcing the participation Of Turkey in the ground military action so this is my take on The situation i don’t believe any true intentions from either Netanyahu Or his government i want to be wrong i wish to be wrong But let’s wait and see I don’t think this is the time and the case when Netanyahu Or his government are honest in their position even with the intent Of clearing up their mess that they have created in Gaza or the accusations That they get as a cabinet or an administration That is carrying out genocidal policy
Asbed: I meanI fully agree with your assessment But I just haven’t figured out exactly why they would do this Because it really doesn’t harm Turkey and none of the real trade And defense activities have stopped or anything so it’s not like you know it’s An annoyance to Turkey but it’s not really harming them no it’s
Dziunik: A very painful issue it’s a very pain it’s the most painful issue for Turkey And the way Erdogan reacted shows that it has got to the target that they wanted it To go and this is just as i said it’s not a direct bilateral one it’s a triangle And here we have just remember that US recently promised F-35s to Turkey again Which i think will be coming sometimes in 2014 40, 45 Or 50 because there’s a big list of countries that need to get that but behind The doors there are negotiations as I said and there are plans being charted for The ground operation in which Turkey was supposed to take part in And they withdrew their participation not only they withdrew But they forced Azerbaijan not to respond remember the case with Nakhichevan The so-called this Drones being suddenly hitting something there and people just standing And waiting expecting that to happen in order to take the pictures so I think That this is going on behind the doors and this is just action That is showing their determination determination to go Forward with this political action which will be hurting Turkey Of course it will be hurting Turkey and hurting Turkey’s position currently Which attempts to present itself as the leader of the Muslim world and the one That is standing there as an innocent actor with no crimes committed and closing The world’s eyes over the crimes that it committed both in Iraq In Syria with its own support towards the Islamic State and the rest so And I’m not speaking about the Armenian Genocide so let’s just be more vigilant over The development I think we will see more development in the coming month, month and A half but I don’t think that the Knesset is going to vote on it because as I said It’s a deal being prepared and negotiated and all elements are being used for That regretfully Armenian Genocide issue is again used by Israeli government To put salt on the open wound in Turkish politics and try to get as much as possible From the situation yeah But let’s be honest most of the countries That adopted Armenian Genocide condemnation resolutions acted according To their political situation and demands and the same goes with the US The Biden administration adopted it simply or Biden used the word genocide simply To get over it and to Start working with Turkey easily without that hindrance that was always put in front Of him now Trump decided to go another way but uh i don’t think that when The time comes he will uh resist using the word genocide simply because they want To force Turkey to do what it has committed to
Hovik: I do have just one point on the issue of the Knesset.
I was reading in the Armenian press that actually it’s not so certain That they will approve it because Technically, they have very little time between now and October to Hold sessions and it depends on whether they do it as a law or a resolution Has different weights and after October if Netanyahu goes then And it will be a completely different So I just want to say that I don’t believe that it is very certain that The Knesset will approve and in my opinion the biggest impediment To worldwide recognition including potentially court cases against Turkey And actually legal repercussions has been Israel with its lobby in the United States So Maybe I’m wondering where you what you think about that that would be the the future That Israel is trying to show to Turkey if the Israeli lobby support doesn’t exist Then Turkey faces all the potential follow-up actions from this which is removal Of any impediment to taking this to the courts and obtaining US support to take this To the courts because we know that the only thing That has been stopping US recognition has been the Israeli lobby
Hovik: The other question I was going to ask is do you think That this issue will affect Israel-Azerbaijan and Israel-Turkey relations Or I think you mentioned earlier that this is just a game that is being played By all sides what is the repercussion on Israeli-Azerbaijani relations And Israeli-Turkish relations?
Dziunik: I think Azerbaijan is too dependent on Israel to have serious repercussions on The relations and of course on the level of public statements Azerbaijan is trying To calm down the situation but I don’t think this is the case Yes you rightfully mentioned that Israeli lobby was one of The biggest impediments both internally in the US And also in the court but also Israel was also an impediment when we were trying To pass resolutions on Armenian Genocide in the UN In international organizations so that’s one of the reasons That i think they are using it as a stick against Turkey Knowing that it is very painful but here we have regretfully a government That is not going to take advantage of the situation because if we had a government That was serving the Armenian national interest then immediately A resolution will be put forward in one of the UN bodies in Which Israel would support based on the government adoption Of this particular decision So I think that in this particular case as I said this is also another proof That this is part of this bargaining deal that is being worked out in details behind The scenes which we don’t hear about but certain details will come out as The time passes Knesset is going for vacation And this is also an opportune time to bring up this issue because it will be hanging As a stick without any possibility legally of it turning into any decision Or withdrawing it so it’s the time plays into the hands of Israeli government In this particular case and I think they that they took that into consideration As well when they passed the decision exactly at this time not a month ago not But at the eleventh hour so that it will be hanging as a stick over the heads of The Turkish government explaining in multiple details what the repercussions of The passing of this decision will be for both Turkey and the Turkish politics.
Asbed: Ambassador, so what did you think of Pashinyan’s answer?
Dziunik: He couldn’t say anything else. A person who is trying to close the chapter of Armenian Genocide And trying to count those that have been killed in order to justify the rhetoric That is coming from Turkey. I don’t expect any other answer.
His actions are fully described by the Genocide scholars who rightfully mentioned That he has joined the Genocide denialist camp and just trying to implement their policies in Armenia In a country that is full of survivors of Armenian Genocide So this is this is not surprising regret As i said regretfully this is what he could have he can’t say anything he can’t say Something that will be Damaging his position in the public because he has a referendum that he has to pass. He cannot criticize Turkey because there are his supporters and his partners In bringing current Armenia to its demise.
Asbed: You’re absolutely right i mean this he’s basically adopted the language of denialism And the Turkish narrative i mean how is an Armenian who is trying To affirm their own existence their own history and ancestry weaponizing
Dziunik: The Armenian Genocide no i don’t know first to use the word that does not exist In Armenia and it shows that He has got probably his instructions from again English speakers And he couldn’t find the right word to the right Armenian word to use So it’s another evidence that he’s carrying his instructions From other centers yeah somewhere else but also it’s not a secret That any issue is used by any country for political purposes Of course it is being used for political purposes Whether internal or external political purposes but whether you use the opportunity To advance your own cause by using the chances that open up in front Of you that’s what countries do to advance their interests And advance their positions but for this government the only positions and The only points that they advance is just Very easily coinciding with the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey And going contrary to Armenian interests.
And that’s not even a theory, It’s already an axiomatic truth that is understandable to most of the people here.
Asbed: Okay, so let’s leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us, Ambassador Aghajanian. It’s always a pleasure to talk with you.
Dziunik: Thank you again.
Hovik: It was an unusually long show, but we missed you since last time.
Asbed: Your fans are gonna love it.
Dziunik: Thank you so much. Thanks a lot.
Asbed: Okay, that was our show. This episode was recorded on July 1st, 2026. And we’ve been talking with Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian. She served Armenia through the ranks of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs And most recently as a diplomat as Armenia’s ambassador to countries like the Netherlands, Malaysia, Indonesia she received her education At Yerevan State University Columbia University and Uppsala University in Sweden For more information please go To our show notes podcasts.groong.org slash episode number and click the links To find out more
Hovik: Tell us how we’re doing drop a comment I saw some interesting responses To my previous episode already but go ahead and like comment And share anything you can do to help increase our reach
Asbed: We try to keep up with all the comments we try to keep up with the people commenting On our shows we like the dialogue we’re having with you on in those In those comments So please keep it up thank you all right take care I’m Asbed Bedrossian talk To you soon bye take care