Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed: Armenia is heading into parliamentary elections under a cloud of arrests, intimidation, and state pressure. Our guest today is just back from an international observation mission to Armenia, so stay with us to find out whether voters are still free to speak their minds, organize and cast their ballots without fear. Welcome to our second Conversations on Groong with Dr. Philippe Raffi Kalfayan, who is an international law expert in Paris, France, and has served as Secretary General of the International Federation for Human Rights, the FIDH, and as a legal expert for the Council of Europe’s Directorate General for Human Rights and Rule of Law.
Dr. Kalfayan, welcome back to the Groong Podcast.
Raffi: Thank you for your invitation. It’s a pleasure.
Hovik: Welcome Dr. Kalfayan.
Asbed: Yeah, and thank you for your very important work. We appreciate the time you take to talk with us.
Hovik: Dr. Kalfayan, again, thanks for joining us. IODA’s second visit, based on the contents of your press release, which we had a chance to read, appears to show a sharper and more dangerous election climate. Your first mission raised concerns about democratic backsliding, but your second mission points to a more direct pre-election pattern: arrests, intimidation, misuse of state resources, and fear among voters.
In the last few days, we read news that more people are being arrested from the opposition. From Strong Armenia, Alik Alexanyan. The Armenia Alliance also complained that their party offices and the offices of their supporters and the homes of their supporters also are being regularly searched by the authorities. Tell us what you saw in Armenia, especially I believe you were in the regions during your second visit.
What has changed between the first and the second missions?
Raffi: So thank you for providing me this opportunity to relate about this mission. Well, as you said, the first mission was very much concentrated in Yerevan. where we met a number of institutional and non-institutional organizations. Yerevan is known for being a quite urban place. It’s very difficult to have some political persecution on the people in Yerevan, on NGOs and so on.
And so our decision to go into the regions is in fact justified by two reasons. The first one, we always knew that during previous elections, the regions are much more subjected to intimidation and social pressure. Because we have a network, I mean, a landscape of small villages or provinces which are governed by some people who are very influential. In the villages, it’s even worse because you have what we we call the village chief.
I don’t know what’s the name in Armenian, but the chief of the village has a very strong social influence over the people living there and, of course, people living there and who are potential voters. So it was very important for us to visit these regions, and so we made it with a dual channel. So first of all, we tried to set up appointments with the permanent offices of political parties in different cities.
So we traveled to Hrazdan, to Sevan, to Dilijan, to Ijevan, Vanadzor, Gyumri and in all these places we have met with different political parties and so the local correspondents and sometimes candidates on the list of those political parties. So that was very interesting because We saw two aspects of the political climate. In some municipalities, the people from the opposition said, well, Our mayor is pretty much a liked person in all political circles, and he doesn’t bother us. But in some other municipalities, it was exactly the opposite.
So the mayor was very… harassing the citizens and how they harass the citizens. So they dissuade the people, so not supporting the incumbent ruling party, not to participate in the rallies of the opposition. Or even they watch whether They go to the shtab, so the headquarters of a branch of the opposition parties. So people are afraid to visit the branch office of the opposition parties because they know that they are watched and they may have some retaliation in their daily life.
Hovik: Dr. Kalfayan, I think this is very important. I was watching the news and I think in one day, supporters in the regions, also supporters of both Strong Armenia and Armenia Alliance, were beaten up by pro-government supporters. So that seems to be very pertinent to this discussion as well.
So it’s not just intimidation, right? It’s actual physical force as well.
Raffi: Exactly. So when we were there, there were not those beatings. But in fact, yesterday and the day before, we have seen and read about the beatings that you have mentioned. But the climate of intimidation and fear was already existing.
So now we are one step higher. We are in fact in physical violence. and not only that I mean the the so arrests of so quite major figures of the opposition shows that the ruling party is it doesn’t feel comfortable before the election and so they don’t want I mean, they want to have all the chances to get the majority. So that makes them nervous. And that’s why we probably will see more and more violence in this pre-electoral campaign, which ends on the 5th of June.
And maybe next week we can see other developments, because we can expect If the polls are not favourable to the incumbent party, ruling party, then we may expect more measures aiming at the prohibition of some political parties or alliances That will be a disaster for Armenia, I can tell you, because I’m not sure that the people of Armenia will accept such steps. So that may conduct to more serious consequences.
Hovik: Dr. Kalfayan, in your report you mentioned that you spoke to opposition parties, lawyers, observers, civil society groups and other local actors. What did you hear from the opposition and civil society groups and which civil society groups did you talk to? Is there a difference between one and the other?
What can you tell us about your discussions?
Raffi: Well, we met with actually two civil society organizations that are involved and registered as electoral observation organizations. One in Yerevan, with branches in the regions and one based out of Vanadzor and also having observers in the regions. Actually these two organizations had refused to meet with us during the first mission. So we have insisted to meet with them.
So finally they accepted. But the climate of the meetings was very, very tense. They obviously don’t trust us. We are very transparent on who we are, our mission statement, Goodwill and also the funding of our organization, which is very limited.
We are just funding the travel and expenses and that’s all.
Hovik: Speaking of funding, can you tell us also who funds these civil societies? Or civil society organizations because well I think that many of them I mean many of these organizations at least I don’t know which ones you talk to but it seems like all you know most of them receive funding from Western and European institutions and therefore they toe the party line.
Raffi: Well, I can tell you, well, the two organizations that we have met is Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly-Vanadzor, Artur Sakunts. And so we didn’t meet himself, but one of his right-hand person. And the other organization was Akanates, so Eyewitnesses. which is in fact also Transparency International Armenia this is the same organization they were very aggressive towards us very aggressive saying but why are you interested in these elections and and then with Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly-Vanadzor it was so tense that at some stage, the meeting went short, cut short, because we were not in dialogue between good faith people.
I mean, they refused to answer our questions. I mean, again, we are. What were you asking?
Asbed: Yeah, I was I was just thinking, what were you asking?
Raffi: Well, for example, so they said, well, we have testimonies that Strong Armenia is bribing people in Russia to come and and vote in Armenia. And so we said, well, how do you know? This was in fact one of the observations of our first mission. How do you know?
Especially when they talk about 80,000 people. So how do you know that there are so many people who have been approached to come and vote in Armenia? Did you call each of them to get a testimony? Well, no, but it’s not like this.
We have other sources. So we raised the question. What other sources are you talking about are you talking about intelligence sources actually this information went through the foreign intelligence services of Armenia which is a new intelligence service created by Western support and who is headed by a very close person to the prime minister and They didn’t want to respond, so we said, do you have any proof collected by these people?
And then they got nervous, because actually When we asked the opposition party to bring some proof, I mean material proof, or testimonies or pictures of letters that have intimidated citizens in municipalities or villages, nobody was able to provide us this. And they explained why. So we ask the same question. Do you have material proof of what you are saying?
And they don’t. They don’t have proofs. So they say, well, we know more than you. We have other sources that say that it is like this.
So this is not serious. I mean, we are fact finders. And when we talk about facts, we are talking about even having material proof. or being able to cross-check through different channels the information that has been brought to us. So when we don’t have, we are clearly saying we don’t have proofs, but The others don’t consider that as enough.
I mean, they say we have our sources and so this is like that. And so the discussion ends like this. Eyewitnesses, Akanates, was more serious because they admitted they don’t have proofs. at least primary proof so because they said well we have collected 80 interviews where so people people living in Armenia who told them who told them that their relatives living in Russia have been approached by different people who incited them to come and vote in Armenia. But we said, who are these people?
Are they Russian? Well, they said, no, these are Armenian businessmen in Russia. who are proposing money for the voters to to come and vote in Armenia, but we said it doesn’t make sense which Armenian businessmen are putting money for this. And well, so the response was well, but they are forced by the Russian authorities to do that. But they have no proof of this.
I mean, this is just hearsay. And even the testimonies collected in Armenia don’t show anything. So That’s why in our report, in the press statement we made, we clearly indicate that there is no evidence of direct involvement of Russian authorities in this process Dr. Kalfayan, I have a quick question.
Asbed: I don’t know where the truth lies in all these things. As you said, there’s no direct evidence. But if Armenian citizens in Russia were to vote in the Armenian elections, that is not an illegal thing, is it? Absolutely not.
Raffi: This is what we tried to explain them. And the second argument me and my colleagues brought to them is that they are offered a travel ticket, in case they are really offered. So they can enjoy the travel ticket, but who will know what ballot they will cast? And they have no response to that.
They have no response to that. So this is a ridiculous scenario and actually everything is possible, but as long as we don’t have evidence, all this is pure speculation and misinformation on all sides, on all sides. That’s why this is very particular to conduct missions in such conditions because misinformation is everywhere, everywhere. We have been obliged to select all the information that was emerging every day.
So for example, last week we saw emerging an article from a source which is called VT, Foreign Policy. which is a very unreliable source and they were so alleging so many things about the Armenian government so we rejected this we also saw video alleging that the spokesperson of the Prime Minister had been harassed sexually by the Prime Minister. Again, this was an unreliable source, so we just neglected all those things. But on the other side, this is the same.
I mean, so the same NGOs took as granted the article so disseminated by a review called the Chronicle of the Caucasus yes The Insider and so on so the Chronicle of the Caucasus issued alleged leaked documents from the Russian government, four leaked documents. And so this has been disseminated through the a site in Berlin, in Germany, which is managed by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former oligarch. His site is called Dossier, something like that. When you look at the documents, and this is what Factor.am did, they looked at the documents.
You have no signature on the documents. You have no stamps. These are just printed documents. And they present this as a leaked document from the Russian authorities.
I mean, this is not serious. And this is the same for the alleged leaked document from the Armenian Ministry of Interior. Yes. But contrary to the
Hovik: anti-Russian or let’s say Khodorkovsky documents all of the pro-government media ran with it and maximally posted it. I have to say I haven’t seen the fake news about Pashinyan against Civil Contract disseminated by reliable opposition outlets. I only saw a few mentions in Twitter and then but most people realize that this is fake, but on the pro government side they take this as for granted, and they have monopoly over public airwaves and even across public airwaves i’ve seen some references to it.
Raffi: Yeah, you know why this difference? Because if the opposition party disseminates such fake information, fake articles, fake news, they may be prosecuted. Yes, exactly. Why?
And this is one of the second major observations. We can see every day that all the investigations going on from the state agencies are against the opposition, but none against the ruling party, while, for example, it has been proven that the teachers of some municipalities and also the medical personnel of some municipalities have been forced to come and attend rallies of a Civil Contract Party in Gyumri and other cities and so nobody denied and so they were supposed to open an investigation about these events. The Anti-Corruption Committee and the Committee for Prevention of Corruption didn’t open the case.
I personally wrote to the CPC, so the Corruption Prevention Committee, because we have met them last week. I wrote to them, did you open an investigation about this case? They didn’t respond.
Hovik: Dr. Kalfayan, you also said in your press release that you talked to Civil Contract or you requested meetings with Civil Contract and you were denied. How should we read that refusal to engage?
Raffi: I don’t know. I think like for the first mission, I think they are wrong to do this because of course that discredits them internationally but actually they don’t care about the foreign observers because They feel so strong by getting the political support of the European Union and United States that they are having this arrogant approach to us. And actually, the same NGOs that I mentioned before continue to circulate fake news about us and about others in Armenia through Facebook and so on. And so, yeah, they feel strong because they have the support of foreign powers.
Asbed: Dr. Kalfayan, you mentioned that you have documented reports that schools, teachers, students, cultural institutions, and in general public sector employees are being drawn into Civil Contract campaign activities. You also heard that there are repeated accounts that voters, especially state-linked workers, fear dismissal, pressure, inspections and other retaliation if they support the opposition. So how serious is the misuse of state resources in this election?
Does it look isolated or is it pervasive and appears to be part of a broader campaign, platform, method, pattern, whatever?
Raffi: Yeah, it’s a pattern which is inherited from the Soviet legacy, which has been perpetuated by the former authorities, the former presidents. Unfortunately, if we escape this pattern in 2021, because it was still too fresh after the alleged revolution, today they feel they need this pattern to be reactivated. and actually this is very sad to see that we are going back to the bad years and that will leave strong and deep traces on the population and you see they practice this pattern so harshly that people are not dismissed, they fear dismissal.
They fear so much that they are having a kind of self-censorship. by not participating in the rallies, by not visiting the branch office of a political party of the opposition. And so that’s real intimidation. That’s real fear. That’s right.
Asbed: We’ve also noticed, by the way, that they fear responding to polls.
Raffi: Yes, exactly. The last poll from the International Republican Institute, I mean, only 16% of the people responded. I mean, this is terrible. That shows that people don’t trust and they are afraid of responding to the surveys.
Yes, that’s true.
Asbed: Especially when they know there’s pervasive surveillance of phone conversations and everything. They simply don’t want to indicate that they support the opposition.
Raffi: And in fact, everybody in all the regions told us they are wiretapped and they explained how they know that.
Asbed: Yeah. Dr. Kalfayan, so if these people, if all these public servants and their relatives, we’ve actually heard that their relatives are also fearful of this employee losing their paycheck, essentially. If all these people are concerned that their jobs and their safety depend on not supporting the opposition, can the elections be called free?
I’m sorry to ask a leading question here.
Hovik: Can I also just add, I mean, Pashinyan himself said, I mean, they, for instance, in the case of Gagik Tsarukyan, they dismissed a lot of police officers or patrol officers who were deemed to be relatives of Gagik Tsarukyan or party supporters.
Asbed: Yeah, or from the region, basically.
Hovik: Pashinyan backed it up saying that, yes, if there’s any public servant or if there’s any police officer that is a relative of Gagik Tsarukyan or the Prosperous Armenia Party, then I will fire their supervisors if they don’t fire those employees. I mean, is that also in line with Asbed’s question?
Raffi: In fact, we have visited the municipality where it happened. Four police officers have been dismissed from their job, but they didn’t want to give us their names. So we said, but did they sue their authority for this dismissal? They said, look, in the situation of a judiciary where there is no more independence, Nobody now believes that it’s worth suing their employers or their legal authority, because they know that their case will even worsen if they go for such a step.
But yes, I confirm that we have visited the municipality where it happened.
Hovik: So, I mean, just to repeat, ask this question. Are we still like, are we participating in a… Come on, say it.
Asbed: A sham election.
Hovik: Are we participating in a fantasy trying to portray the image that this can still be a free election? Can these elections still somehow be called free?
Raffi: Well, obviously the arrest of opposition members, this climate of fear and intimidation does not does not show that it will be fair at least. Free, I don’t know, because the voters can still make their choice. In the end, unless there are cameras in the in the cabin where they will cast their vote, their ballot, they are still free to choose. But this is a theory because in major cities, We are free to do that.
In small villages, that’s almost impossible. Because in small villages, we have been reported as a systematic pattern that the head of the village knows in advance who is going to vote for whom. So if some ballots are missing for one candidate, he knows exactly who has betrayed his promise. So in the regions, the social pressure is so much more important than in Yerevan and major cities.
Asbed: So all of these events and issues that we’re discussing are happening prior to the election, obviously, which is this coming Sunday. Your first mission actually occurred about a month and a half ago, and the second mission happened just now. It seems to me that a lot of the international monitors basically come in approximately a couple of weeks before and leave sometime soon after the elections. How difficult is it for them to see these patterns of problems pre-election distinguish them from on-election day issues?
Are these issues just as damaging? Are they easy to detect? Can you tell us how to monitor this stuff?
Raffi: Yeah. So there are two kinds of observers. There are groups of long-term observers. So basically this is mainly the OSCE, so participating states who are delegating long-term term observers who are hired in the different countries of the OSCE.
Actually, we have met two of them in Yerevan and we had met before going into mission, so virtually, so online, the coordinators of this unit of long term observers. The The people we have met in Yerevan, long-term observers, were very interested in our observation. We have debriefed together. Of course, they have an obligation of reserve.
I mean, they don’t say too much about their own findings, but they agreed at least on one worrying aspect of this pre-electoral campaign is that they also expect tensions after the election. So that was very interesting that even these people who are not Armenian have felt that there is something quite violent coming on. I don’t know if they will report it. They will report about this.
But at least in off-the-record discussions, it was very clear and they share our worries. And so you have long-term observers and you have short-term observers. The short-term observers are the ones coming two, three days before the election and they leave one or two days after the election. These people are basically tourists.
Of course, they can learn from the reports of the OSCE and read about everything, but this is why we have created this initiative of IODA. The day of the election, you don’t see much. All the frauds existing before, ballot stuffing and so on. It’s much more difficult to do that today.
Asbed: I have to say that I want to ask you about your level of confidence in, for example, the OSCE, ODIHR observation missions that have been sent. From my perspective, these people are funded by people, the Europeans, who have explicitly and directly supported Pashinyan. They are not Impartial superpowers or anyone. They’ve actually explicitly endorsed Pashinyan.
They were here for a giant Civil Contract campaign one month ago. And we talked about a week ago with a member of the parliament, Arthur Khachatryan, who basically said, When you have the prime minister going around saying that he is going to kill or bring to their knees all the opposition leaders and nobody will investigate and preliminary reports by the OSCE have not included such issues as part of the campaign problems. Meanwhile, he said if anybody from the opposition was to say something like that, 90 minutes later they would be in jail for the next couple of months. on pretrial detention forever.
What is your level of confidence in these people observing the elections in Armenia?
Raffi: So the OSCE in general, When you look at all their observation of elections, they sometimes report some small fraud or whatever pressures on the voters. But very generally, and I have never seen any exception to that, maybe in Moldova, They consider that the influence on the vote, on the outcome of the elections, is not significant. So there is no need to reconsider the outcome of the elections. So basically this is what they will say.
And you are right. OSCE is an intergovernmental organization. The outcome of the elections, the report they will make, will be dictated by diplomats. The OSCE, like the Council of Europe, you have always two branches.
The people who are the technicians, who are doing their job, who are reporting and you have the political branch which decide what will be saying, what will be said, what will be released in the press. And so we can expect that the OSCE, because of these a very anti-Russian campaign internationally, they will certainly not so criticize this election outcome and the climate in which this election happened, that’s for sure. But it’s better than nothing. This is my assessment of this.
Asbed: I mean,
Raffi: it’s better to have these observers, even if their political branch will decide what to say after the elections. than nothing. I mean, this is the game. You know, it happened in the past. It will happen again in the future.
So, of course, this is in favor of incumbents. But unfortunately, that’s the real situation of the intergovernmental organization in the world.
Hovik: Dr. Kalfayan, your findings describe a pattern of arrests and prosecutions tied to criticism of Pashinyan and his government. The cases, I mean, the examples you mentioned, which we all talked about in our podcast before, but it includes the young Minasyan brothers and the charges that they’re being arrested for are like hooliganism, incitement, obstruction of campaigning, being used to punish speech and suppress opposition voices. Do you have legal analysts on your staff or have you consulted with legal experts on the veracity of these charges and the proportionality of them?
Are pro-government supporters also being arrested for things like this? And one pattern that I see, maybe it’s being misreported, but it’s like always if you’re pro-opposition and you say something, then they will put you in jail for two months by default. Is there a balance to this on the pro-government side?
Raffi: Of course not. And so just come back to legal principles. So when it comes to political speech, political disputes, even political aggressive speech. The European Court of Human Rights does consider so that any punishment for such speeches is a violation of freedom of expression.
When it comes to political sphere, and especially when one citizen or one opponent criticizes, even in a very aggressive words, the policy of a government, nobody has the right to arrest him, nobody has the right to even indict him. Of course, if it is a physical aggression, this is a totally different picture than it is a criminal proceeding. But freedom of speech in a political environment is strictly forbidden by the European Court of Human Rights. Remember, it’s even worse, it’s even worse, it’s even worse.
It’s a blatant violation of freedom of expression and of opinion. So the second part of the question was Do the supporters of the Prime Minister, when they attack with violent speeches, the opponent or even the Artsakh refugees are also investigated? The response is no. I mean, when you have the candidate Pashinyan saying, well, I will kill this leader, I will bring them to their knees. and others.
And when he’s saying to Karabakh refugees, why are you there? Why are you here? Why are you still alive? You are not dead in Karabakh.
I mean, this is incredibly violent. And Okay, he’s a candidate. He may have a right to also a freedom of expression in the course of this political battle, but he’s at the same time a prime minister. He’s the head of a state.
I mean, you cannot behave Like an ordinary citizen, you are the head of a state, you are the head of all citizens of Armenia. How come you can have such aggressive speeches against your citizens? And this behavior, of course, is not investigated. Of course not.
Hovik: Dr. Kalfayan, you mentioned Artsakh and in your press release you also raised concerns about Pashinyan’s public confrontations with citizens, including displaced Artsakh Armenians and opposition supporters. This matters because rhetoric from the head of the government sets a tone for the entire state. But I want to ask you maybe your own personal observation.
Why is Pashinyan’s rhetoric towards Artsakh refugees and government critics so serious in this election climate? Why target people who have been displaced from their home? Why tell them, you know, why aren’t you dead? Is this like an electoral strategy in your opinion and what can be done about it?
Raffi: Well, first of all, well, this is, let’s say, a little beyond the mission of IODA because this is a kind of political assessment of a speech. Mr. Pashinyan is a populist leader and is playing with the, in fact, hidden xenophobia in part of a population of Armenia. who have always considered Artsakh people as foreigners, I mean as Turks, even as Turks. And here he’s playing with one very dangerous Let’s say rhetoric, which consists of saying, well, you Artsakh people have been the cause for the loss of 4,000 of our young soldiers.
And then the opposition party is assimilated into this rhetoric. So Kocharyan, Karapetyan, and so on, allegedly pro-Russian leaders, and also allegedly having intention to put again on the table of negotiation the right of the Artsakh people to return. So he’s playing in this field to make the population believe that the opposition is elected, so they will first of all defend the rights of Artsakh people And secondly that they will conduct another war So that’s the mindset of the incumbent prime minister. And yes, this is dangerous because that creates a real xenophobic atmosphere in the country because people believe in him.
Hovik: Because I just don’t understand the difference between Artsakhtsis, someone from Gyumri, someone from Vanadzor, why isolate Artsakhtsis? They’re already vulnerable people. They already have been displaced. Yes, exactly.
Raffi: And in international law, in fact, this is a particularly serious violation when you attack vulnerable people. This is strictly prohibited as well.
Asbed: Dr. Kalfayan, may I also insert one comment? Because there have been no names and no numbers published about the losses, human losses from the Artsakh War, we do not know how many soldiers from Armenia versus how many soldiers from Nagorno-Karabakh have died.
Hovik: The bottom line, though, is I think that that type of rhetoric should be rejected completely. I am ashamed as an Armenian to even witness it, but this is a government that is fanning it.
Asbed: It’s built on divisions. It’s like you said, Hovik, Gyumri soldiers from Syunik. What difference does this make?
Raffi: So, yeah, this is quite disgusting, as Armenians, to hear such things. They don’t, I mean, Artsakh people don’t deserve that. I mean, they have been forced to leave. They have been betrayed, not only by Mr Pashinyan but also maybe by their own leaders and so they don’t deserve that that kind of of speech so yeah this is a quite dramatic aspect of a campaign but unfortunately there are some people who are applauding this and that’s dramatic
Asbed: Dr. Kalfayan, we talked about how European leaders and United States leaders have explicitly endorsed Pashinyan. Have you seen any evidence of that kind of direct meddling into Armenia’s elections from Russia? I certainly haven’t heard Putin endorse anybody.
I haven’t heard anybody from China endorse somebody in the opposition in Armenia. And yet the West is the one that’s making a huge deal in these elections about hybrid wars, hybrid information war, Russian meddling, etc. What was your observation?
Raffi: Well, actually, the interference of Russia is very open. It’s very open. I mean, they say, well, They don’t talk about the elections, by the way. The only place and the only time they have talked about the election was in Moscow, when Pashinyan and Putin met in front of the cameras, where Putin said clearly, well, it would be bad if I don’t know whether it was a provocation, but when he said the pro-Russian candidates are prohibited for participating into the election.
For me, this was like a theater. I don’t believe in what has been said that day. Actually, I don’t even believe that Russia is so unhappy with Pashinyan.
Asbed: When you say direct meddling on the part or open meddling by Russia, are you talking about the economic coercion, that it is the trading issues that it has raised?
Raffi: Exactly, exactly. The real coercion is there on the economic side. But Russia knows that if they want to make collapse the Armenian economy, they can do it very quickly. And the current government will not have time to find substitution scenarios.
So that’s why yesterday in the panic the Prime Minister said, well, I can guarantee some export markets in the West for your agricultural products. But I mean, this is not so easy. You cannot substitute an export market like that in one day. It’s a long process.
It goes through administrative and sanitary processes. So that’s not so easy. So for me, Russia is playing very open interference. The West is playing differently They openly say, well, this is our candidate And they give money to counter the alleged hybrid threats coming from Russia Or even against us, I mean, who are independent observers We are harassed by journalists, some of them are not even Armenian, trying to interview us and asking why we are interested in the Armenian elections, who are our sponsors and so on.
That shows that the European programs are spread across the whole spectrum of any institution, any force, any independent people who can challenge the current policy of Europe against
Asbed: Russia. So, Dr. Kalfayan, based on your observations, IODA’s observations, what is your level? What’s your hope?
What’s your expectation? What’s your level of confidence that Armenia’s elections can be described as free and fair? And what’s next for your organization on June 8 and beyond?
Raffi: Well, I have almost responded to the first question. If we want to be purists, we cannot today seriously say that it’s fair and free. But let the election pursue its process. Many things can still happen.
All will depend on the outcome on Monday. If the Prime Minister, who is supposed to arrive at the first rank amongst the political parties, is not in a capacity to to build a coalition to get the 50% necessary for gaining majority of the parliament, then we will see even tougher measures in the political sphere. He is certainly not ready to give up power Giving up power for him means either going into exile in foreign countries or going into jail So he will not choose any of these two scenarios So he will try to keep his power at any rate. That’s why it’s dangerous.
I think that he’s not ready to play the democratic game. So our organization I would prefer that we stop after the election, but unfortunately we are going to witness what will happen. And so we are ready to have also a rapid intervention team to go in Yerevan to intervene in this scenario, and maybe also propose some mediation services between all different political forces. At least my colleagues are in favor of that kind of interventions in the future.
Hovik: Okay, and if the government retains power under these conditions, what should be the response from those who care about democracy or democratic legitimacy in Armenia and outside Armenia? I mean, what do you expect?
Raffi: Well, you cannot expect anything from EU, from the United States, because they have made their choice by closing their eyes on democracy. I mean, they don’t talk anymore about democracy. during the European Political Community Summit and during the EU-Armenia Partnership Summit, no word, no single word about democracy has been said. Not a single word. So that’s a sign. of what will be their behavior after the election.
Russia will not move as well. Russia is just concerned by the settlement of Western armies and Western weapons into Armenia, and also in the settlement of foreign intelligence services in Armenia. For an example, We knew since two years that many foreign intelligence agents are present in Armenia. They are even controlling part of the institutions in Armenia.
The personal protection of the Prime Minister is ensured by the CIA and the French intelligence services.
Hovik: Yeah, that is an article in Reuters citing three different sources, so it’s very much a valid, you know, true article No, no,
Raffi: but it’s sure, we know it since two years at least And the next ambassador of France in Armenia is a former intelligence service high-ranking officer So you can see that the West is investing and is going to control all this But the worst is not even that Today I have been interviewed on the document that has been signed by Marco Rubio and Mirzoyan last week so during a half an hour stopover in Armenia by Marco Rubio so he signed and approved the document about the TRIPP agreement when you go into the details so as a lawyer this is what I did I analyzed the document legally this document is just a colonial so takeover of a band of territory which is going to be conceded to TRIPP development.
Hovik: We talked exactly about that last week on our own podcast, so thank you for confirming our…
Raffi: And even worse than that, this document says quite clearly that the agreement, so the company which is going to be created, not yet created, the TRIPP Development Company. Yeah, the TRIPP Development Company. Yes, the TRIPP Development Company is a company under American law, under the jurisdiction of New York State. So when you know that they own 76% of a share and this company will be ruled under American law.
What sovereignty are we talking about? There is no more sovereignty. So the Prime Minister was insisting that This TRIPP agreement will not affect the sovereignty of Armenia. But this is the first violation infringement of sovereignty.
Asbed: And it is explicitly mentioned that the TRIPP Development Company’s laws supersede the Armenian laws.
Hovik: But they mentioned the word sovereignty in the agreement 75 times.
Raffi: So it must be true. And, in fact, this is the most worrying aspect that you have just mentioned, Asbed. I mean, this commercial contract has precedence over Armenian laws and the constitution. So that’s incredible.
I have never seen that. I mean, an international treaty has precedence over national laws and constitution, but not a commercial contract.
Asbed: Okay, well, these elections are coming up this Sunday, June 7, 2026. Dr. Kalfayan, let’s all hope that there will be some kind of a positive outcome for the Armenian people. That’s all I can say right now.
Yes. Thank you for joining us today.
Raffi: Thank you very much. Thank you, Dr. Kalfayan. Thank you to you.
Asbed: Okay, folks, that’s our show. Today is June 3rd, 2026, four days before the elections in Armenia. Hovik, you said you saw the word sovereignty 75 times in the document for the TRIPP with Marco Rubio. I hope you’re not going to get fact-checked by Daniel Ioannisyan.
Hovik: We might, and he might say, well, it’s not 75, it’s only 74. It’s not 300,000 Azerbaijanis who are going to come to Armenia. It’s only 299,000. But on a more serious note, folks, it’s very easy to be discouraged and tuned out of Armenia.
I think that in reality you should take all of these news as a battle cry. It is an existential moment for Armenia.
You have no right to not do everything in your power. to convince first of all if you can vote to go and vote and second of all if you can’t then make sure that everyone that you know who can vote goes to vote that is the minimum you can do and it’s going to be a very tough moment and when your children or your grandchildren ask what were you doing in June or even before that like right what were you doing you can tell them with a clear conscience that you tried your best if you’re not I mean of course you’re not watching this then you we can’t communicate with you but if you’re watching this and you just ignore us then I think that part of the responsibility is among all of us including yourself if you’re not doing your best to get everyone out to the voting booth
Asbed: Yeah, at least everybody across the spectrum of politics in Armenia agrees. You, citizen of Armenia, have the right to vote. So there you go. Exercise your right to vote.
Go vote on June 7th. No matter who you’re voting for, that’s your choice, but please go and vote. We’ve been talking with Dr. Philippe Raffi Kalfayan, who is a lawyer based in Paris.
He lectures in international law and is a former Secretary General of the FIDH, the International Federation of Human Rights. He has also served as legal expert for the Council of Europe Directorate General for Human Rights and Rule of Law. You can see more information through our show notes, podcasts.groong.org slash episode number. Follow the links for the people and other links we will have in there.
We will definitely link to the press release by the IODA organization that Dr. Kalfayan leads.
Hovik: Like, share, comment, subscribe, and donate if you can. We really appreciate it. And I’m Hovik Manucharyan.
Asbed: I’m Asbed Bedrossian. Let me also emphasize that this is a very important show. As Hovik said, if you are not watching us, we can’t communicate with you. Share this with your friends.
We want to know that they can vote if they are citizens of Armenia. Please, please, please share the show with your circle so that more people will see our shows. Bye-bye.