Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed: Armenia’s election is now one week away. The ruling party Civil Contract is getting open support from Washington and Brussels while the opposition faces pressure, arrests and harassment. At the same time, Russia has begun taking actual economic measures in response to Pashinyan’s push towards the EU. Yet much of the Western press is focused on this hybrid war trying to keep Russia out.
Hello, everyone, and welcome to this Conversations on Groong episode. Mr. Arthur Khachatryan from the Hayastan Dashinq joins us today.
Hovik: Of course, Hayastan Dashinq for Armenia Alliance is ballot number 17, if you are interested, one of the four opposition parties that is vying against Civil Contract. This is going to be a very interesting discussion, so please stay tuned. And without further ado, on to the show.
Asbed: Mr. Khachatryan, welcome back to The Groong Podcast and thanks for taking the time from your busy campaign schedule to talk with us.
Arthur: Well, always a pleasure being with you and thanks for the invitation.
Hovik: Thank you, Arthur, for joining. I know you’re very busy nowadays. Let’s start with Armenia’s election circumstances. The campaign is being conducted under very strenuous circumstances.
Just last week, Marco Rubio, stopped by Zvartnots for a 40-minute, highly publicized signing of agreements and at the same time endorsing Pashinyan, Trump endorsed Pashinyan a few days ago as well, with flying colors. JD Vance did the same back in February. And EU’s leadership was in Yerevan earlier in May to put Pashinyan on a pedestal. Now, Hakan Fidan finds Pashinyan an acceptable candidate.
So does Ilham Aliyev. And to top it off, the EU has sent Pashinyan millions of dollars, tens of millions of euros actually, for a so-called hybrid war rapid response team, which is essentially a code word for keeping Russia out. It’s a big question if Western observers will mention any of the numerous circumstances of abuse of administrative resources by Pashinyan. His government has been arresting opponents on trumped up charges.
There’s evidence, literal recordings, instructing school teachers and administrators to attend campaign rallies and even bring their students, that’s minors, and we can only imagine the level of implicit and explicit pressure on state employees to participate in Civil Contract rallies as well as vote on June 7, for Pashinyan, of course. So, given all of this, can the June 7 election be free and fair, given this level of foreign interference and meddling in Armenia’s internal affairs?
Arthur: Well, yeah, basically, you said it all, so we could have finished the interview and wish you can wish me a good night and I can wish you a good day. Absolutely true. We see endorsement from across the ocean and from the European Union, particularly from France. We read the preliminary statements from so-called Western observers from Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe that we issued a statement condemning that document because this was absolutely unacceptable.
You know, what we tell them, they say allegedly, or we heard complaints, only a few of the complaints, however, when they listen to the government, they take it as, you know, 99-proof gold, so this is not acceptable. The preliminary statement by the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly was particularly unacceptable we met with them we met with the head of the observation mission. I told her explicitly.
I said many years ago I was an international observer of parliamentary elections in Tajikistan on the same day there was an election in Kyrgyzstan I know how it works okay I know how you develop your statements, but this time I hope you will be impartial. However, I was crying in the wilderness, you know. I told them literally. I said, Pashinyan said Rob, I’m going to kill you.
And in Armenian, there is a very nasty word, you know, “satkatsnel.” It’s much worse than kill. I said, if I use this language, I couldn’t get to the door, I would be arrested. She looked at me, they took note, but there was nothing included in the statement. I told them that for tearing posters, which is obstructing the campaign, maximum punishment is a 100,000-dram administrative fine.
They arrested a person who had torn Nikol Pashinyan’s poster. They put him in a psychiatric institution and he hanged himself. And when you report on the election environment and without even very lightly addressing these issues, it already says what kind of final statement it will be. Well, depending, of course, on the outcome of the elections, of course.
Well, Fidan and Aliyev, I mean, Turkey and Azerbaijan endorse him. That goes without saying, it’s so obvious. At the beginning of the year, Erdogan said that closer to the voting day, we will have symbolic gestures to reinforce Pashinyan’s position. Aliyev’s statement like about a week ago that, you know, everything is quiet, there’s no threat from Azerbaijan, we are in good relations with Armenia, but there are opposition forces that we are not very happy with.
So, he has the endorsement from Turkey, Azerbaijan, and from the West. He understands that he has, because of the lack of legitimacy and lack of support, he needs these guys from outside so he can use them as a trump card in this big game. That’s it. But I hope that the people, you know, will go and vote against him.
The same situation was in Hungary. You remember one week before the elections, the U.S. endorsed Viktor Orban.
Hovik: So coming to the election day or even before, I mean, it seems like we’ve said everything that, you know, we’ve seen everything that could be done. What do you expect on election day? And do you expect any more evidence that this election could be falsified by Pashinyan? What is the opposition doing about that?
Arthur: Well, basically, of course, we We started, not an office, but we started collecting data, information about abuse of administrative resources, abuse of public finances, using a brutal voice, starting criminal cases against opposition politicians, just to have a dossier to have a file. So that will be used and we hope it will be useful. But obviously, everyone understands that election is a three-stage process. This is campaigning, voting, and counting the votes.
So pre-election, election, post-election. So if Pashinyan decides to set up the elections, basically to stage a coup d’etat, I believe that the people will go to the streets.
Asbed: That’s exactly my question, Arthur. The opposition looks like it needs a clear playbook for the scenario where there may be a falsified election, some sort of a stealing the vote. The latest MPG poll that we saw about a week ago said that about 46% of the respondents are ready to take some kind of street action if such a situation arises. And Samvel Karapetyan has said just as recently as this past week that he is ready for street action if the election is falsified.
Robert Kocharyan has also made a similar statement. Is Hayastan Dashinq ready and willing to take sustained street action to defend the vote? What is plan B basically?
Arthur: That’s what I’m asking. If it were not you, I would be really offended from this question because we are the first party that went to street rallies against Pashinyan, back in 2019. There is no good except Allah and Muhammad, his prophet on the earth. And in Armenia it was there is no God except God and then Pashinyan is his prophet on the earth, on the planet.
So we’re the only force to go against him and rallying against him. We’ve been on the streets in 2019, 2020, and after the war. No major street protest campaign was without us or around us, to be more precise. So I think that no one doubts that if something goes out of joint, we’ll be on the streets.
Hovik: Arthur, we’ve been following many of the polls during this campaign and they show a fractured and uncertain political field. Now, Civil Contract still leads, and opposition support is spread across several parties and alliances, while many voters remain undecided or unwilling to answer honestly to the pollsters. This latter category, you know, we look at various polls and there are responses like, you know, I’m undecided, I refuse to respond, and also a very diminishing response rate on the polls in general. It’s very alarming and it goes in a negative direction from poll to poll.
So we’ve been trying to understand the disparity in order to interpret accordingly. How much should we trust polls? Are voters hiding their real preferences because of fear, distrust or pressure? Why?
Arthur: Well, it’s a very, very correct observation. The response rate is extremely low. And as far as I remember, the response rate at a call that International Republican Institute reported was about 80% or so?
Hovik: 16% response rate. So 84% refused. That’s right. So imagine.
Arthur: So basically, Pashinyan and his company, they tried to make a showcase like, look, 49% of our supporters, but 84% refused to respond. This means it shows a total atmosphere of fear. If I were not a member of party, if I were not a member of the parliament, if I were not an exposed person, basically, if someone calls me and says, you know, we are from XYZ marketing agency or public opinion research company. Would you be kind enough to answer?
I would politely shut the phone, because you know you don’t know who is the guy at the end of the line What are they looking for? You know, people work. Many people work for public service. People have their relatives in the public service or municipal service in military and police, and they are afraid of that.
Like recently, 72 patrol officers were fired because their relatives are on the list or they’re paying for one of the opposition parties. Yeah.
Hovik: So I believe that was Gagik Tsarukyan’s party, right? And Pashinyan actually even backed it up saying, if I know that their relatives are working as patrol, I will fire their bosses if they don’t fire the civil servants,
Arthur: which is… Yeah, basically because this is mafia because, you know,
Asbed: 72 people, 72 people can be
Arthur: relatives to 72 completely distant people, different people. Okay. So, so this is it. And we see again, we see like was recently framed and Samvel Karapetyan is under house arrest Arthur Sargsyan from our list a key person especially down in the south, is under house arrest.
Member of our Supreme Council Igor Sarkisian is under house arrest his eminence Bagrat Srbazan is in KGB dungeon you know the threat to start cases against many opposition politicians Pashinyan uses the The vocabulary, this is more suitable for a street hooligan, for a street gang member. You know, I’m going to kill you, I will bend you down, I will knee you down. You know, and in Armenian, you know the word , which is maybe the cruelest- Like beating someone to death. Yeah, and you know, to kill someone with extreme cruelty and humiliation, okay.
I really don’t know whether in other languages there’s a synonym for that word. But basically, if I use that in this interview, even before it is aired, because I believe that what I’m saying is being wiretapped and there’s a KGB officer somewhere listening to what I’m saying uh you know I will be in jail but Pashinyan walks free and Pashinyan walks free and his people walk free and Tavros Sapeyan walks free who says you know if Pashinyan got elected you have to leave the country to a woman from from Artsakh, an Artsakh refugee. So Pashinyan has basically created an atmosphere of fear in the country, both internal fear and external fear.
Internal fear is: you’ll be jailed, you will lose your job, your relative will lose your job, you will you know face the consequences you will taste the power of the government that he. You remember he Say that phrase to Samvel Karapetyan. You will taste what the statehood means. And also the external fear.
If I am not elected, then in September, we will see a war from Azerbaijan. So basically, guys, he says we are an independent country, we are a sovereign country, but you, the proud citizens of an independent country, you do not have the right to vote for the candidate you like because If the candidate you like is being disliked by Turkey and Azerbaijan, they will launch a war against Armenia.
Hovik: Yeah.
Arthur: And basically, Azerbaijan echoes to him. They echo to him. So this also sent a very clear message that Pashinyan is a puppet prime minister. It’s a marionette state for Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Hovik: Arthur, now the silver lining from some of the polls, like MPG, shows that there’s a scenario under which the opposition can collectively get more votes than Pashinyan, but some kind of power-sharing and leadership-sharing will be necessary. What we’ve seen, and I’m not singling your party out, but what we’ve seen from various members of the opposition is red lines about who we will not work with, who we won’t work with, specifically in terms of who will be the Prime Minister’s candidate.
But also the polls say that while our Hayastan Alliance is, at least the MPG poll says that you are clearing the threshold, some in the opposition are also complaining that uh you know Hayastan Dashinq is not clearing the threshold and if they don’t then they will vaporize the votes uh are you concerned about uh meeting the eight
Arthur: percent threshold uh to get into parliament well uh start with yeah uh well I said that we cannot trust the polls but nevertheless okay uh if you take like a few words excuse me a few polls uh Then from if you combine the results or you analyze the results of this polls, you will see that you are clearing the threshold. That’s that’s true. As far as I understand, there is only one party saying that you are going to vaporize the votes. And this opposition, well, a group of people, let me say this way.
They say that you are vaporizing the votes, only that. And I can give you the names, okay, like Samvel Farmanyan, Narek Malyan, and so on, that allegedly are being close friends to Mikael Minasyan, allegedly. Nevertheless, the others do not have this kind of concerns. We do not have this kind of concerns.
Not the United, I tend to agree with you, not the United opposition, but the combined opposition. can get more votes than Pashinyan alone. We understand that Pashinyan satellites will not clear the threshold, you know, the Republic Party for the Republic Party and these minor parties. Our position is, okay, whoever from the opposition gets the majority, you know, relative majority of the votes, the rest of the opposition has to vote for that party. And we are ready to do that.
It was exactly the case what happened in Gyumri. This is why the opposition managed to win the municipal elections and beat the Pashinyan’s candidate. But today, I think that these two, three opposition parties, maximum three besides us, I think they want to create an image that they are not associated with the formers trying to get votes from the ones who say that you know whatever happens we are not going to vote for the former for Kocharyan and for the ARF and so on but I think when these opposition parties face the dilemma Anyone from opposition or Pashinyan, I think that they’ll be on the right side of the force.
Hovik: Given the necessity, I would say, the existential nature of this election, shouldn’t the opposition have some kind of a declaration, a combined declaration that agrees on a transition plan, a prime ministerial candidate before the elections? I understand it’s very difficult with the personalities involved, but everyone says, I’m going to we’re gonna get constitutional majority we’re we’re going all the way shouldn’t there be a more pragmatic vision that is no but but look at this okay uh look look
Arthur: at this okay take take like any 50 countries anywhere parliamentary elections okay none of the opposition party says you know uh if you if you clear the threshold you are going to give our vote for party x another member of the opposite another opposition parties this is not how it works okay you don’t you you won’t say okay you know uh if I pass if I get into the parliament I will vote for Hovik Manucharyan to become the prime minister because in an ordinary you know citizen would say okay why should I vote for Arthur Khachatryan If ultimately it’s going to vote for Hovik Manucharyan, I don’t need an intermediate, you know, the intermediator.
I will vote for Hovik directly. So this is a global phenomenon. It’s not an Armenian-specific phenomenon. Well, of course, you can say that, you know, in Georgia, it was a different way when Ivanishvili gathered every opposition party under his umbrella and so on and so forth.
But these are unique cases usually all the parties that participate in the elections they said that they are going to win okay no one says that you know we have we clear the threshold and I will be voting for candidate from one other party you know this is this is parliamentary public parliamentary constitution there is a procedure and logic behind creating a coalition government
Asbed: Arthur, I want to ask you about this amnesty issue that both Hayastan Dashinq and Strong Armenia have talked about to provide to former ruling party members and stuff if they lose power. Can you tell us a little bit more? First of all, is there a difference between the kind of amnesties that are being proposed by Uzhegh Hayastan, Strong Armenia, and Hayastan Dashinq? Are there any red lines by Hayastan Dashinq as to what kind of amnesty is being provided?
Is it complete blanket, get out of jail free, or? Tell us more. No, no, basically no.
Arthur: Well, what we say is that there are lots of people who are in jails now. The jails are overcrowded for any minor offence. People get their terms in prison. So after the elections, we’ll have an amnesty and people who have committed crimes.
Of course, I’m not talking about the grave crimes. I’m not talking about manslaughter or rape or pedophilia.
Asbed: I’m specifically talking about the political aspect. The political aspect? No, we don’t say- Amnesty being proposed for Civil Contract, possibly even just Pashinyan himself.
Arthur: What we are saying is, anyone who has committed a crime from Civil Contract, ARF, any party shall face a fair trial. okay unlike today when we see like politically motivated sentences it’s a free trial no one will have to get you know no one will be uh untouchable however if someone from Civil Contract or any other party does get a prison term but there is an amnesty then you know he or she will be free under the amnesty okay but if someone has committed grave crimes Then, excuse me, why? Okay.
Asbed: I’m also asking exactly that because, for example, there has never been a war commission. There has never been anything looking into the 44-day war. What kind of issues are those? What kind of crimes were committed?
Well, the war commission is a shame. There’s been no accountability for that war, for example. So do these people just walk?
Arthur: No, this war commission is a complete shame. It’s just a shame. uh basically there is no report by the war commission so when when the civil Contract people in Parliament and in the executive say there is a commission on the you know uh excuse me the report of the Commission on the 44-day uh war they are just bluffing. It’s a despicable lie because, under the Constitution and the Charter of the of the Parliament uh The Committee on Defense is the investigative commission. The committee has 11 members.
Four out of seven have signed under this report. It’s a paper signed only by four people. It cannot be classified as a report by the commission or report by the defense committee. So we are going to have a very thorough investigation on the 44 day war on how it happened that Azeris managed to storm into Armenia like in Jermuk or Sotk was remember a few days before Azeris invaded into Armenia in spring 2021 she has said we had so well equipped frontiers that no Azeris neither the enemy nor the opposition, could support it.
Other than that, there was no appropriate investigation how COVID was managed. Given the political aggressiveness of then-healthcare minister, I think he shall be asked, you know, what were the consequences of his stupid policy? Okay, that, you know, COVID is no more than a flu.
Asbed: Yeah, right, right.
Arthur: So basically, what I said is, anyone who has committed a crime, a grave crime, shall, you know, get its punishment.
Asbed: It’s like Dostoevsky, okay, crime and punishment.
Arthur: Don’t understand, Dostoevsky is not very favored now. Any Russian author is not very favored in today’s Armenia, but nevertheless…
Hovik: People should read it, nevertheless.
Asbed: Everyone except the Armenian ruling party will read him.
Hovik: Maybe when they’re in jail, they’ll have more time to read.
Arthur: Inshallah.
Hovik: But I want to… Let’s talk more about your platform, Hayastan Dashinq’s platform. And specifically, I want to start with issues concerning security, the army, diplomacy. I think we’ll also want to cover economy outside and state institutions.
But how would you uh describe like the key pillars of your platform.
Arthur: Well it’s basically a strong army, combat-ready army, flexible and proactive diplomacy, reliable allies, and sustainable economy. These are the four pillars of national security. We do not have any of them uh Right now when I’m talking to you, I think on air on the public television was a debate on whether Armenia shall join EU or stay in Eurasian Economic Union. And I asked the TV host, I said, okay, are you going to stay with the public television or are you going to leave for BBC?
And she said, is anyone at BBC expects me? I said, no, that’s exactly my point. I promise if it’s on air or when it’s on air I’ll cut that piece and send it to you so that’s exactly my point is anyone at European Union waits for you okay like they keep Turkey on the doormat you know for 40 years already you see what happened with Georgia and then Georgia said okay if you don’t want us we don’t want you no one knows what’s going to happen in Ukraine and Moldova other than that if you want to sell anything to the European Union, you have to manufacture something to sell to the European Union.
You know, you cannot sell the Dutch flowers back to me in the Netherlands you can sell them in Russia but the Russia doesn’t let you in anymore okay and other than that all these businessmen, so these businessmen know about the Russian market, the European market, and the Asian market and American market and African market and Middle Eastern market. If they prefer to sell their cherries, apricots, or tomatoes in Russia, this means they find it easier to do business in Russia. The margin in Russia is higher.
So before shutting the gate and channeling the people, telling them on the map like this is where Belgium is and this is where the Burkina Faso is, You have to ensure that the products meet the standards of the European Union. Other than that, and you know how tough the European Union is, especially on its agriculture policy. I was interviewed recently by a Polish journalist and I said, you know, the story of Polish apples is well known.
Will you be happy to see Armenian apples? in the European Union after what happened to Polish apples in the European Union and he just smiled and did in us so this is it okay the the the Russians have shut the the door today okay and the and the and you know unlike like uh people who work on salaries like with how agriculture works is that okay you work the whole year you harvest your crop you sell and you got a lump sum remuneration for all your labor and the people have worked the whole year. Now they want to ship their cherries to Russia and the doors are closed.
They cannot wait for 10 years before they are allowed to go to Brussels or Amsterdam or Paris.
Asbed: Arthur, I want to ask you, because on this very issue I was reading that there was a meeting of the farmers and businessmen with Minister Papoyan, and the answer to these people with having all these problems shipping anything to Russia is, well, you have to find other markets now. Is this the right message from a government that doesn’t seem to have the right solutions for all these people, doesn’t want to negotiate rational choices, give people time to…
Arthur: Let’s go to the basics of the statehood. Let’s go to the basics, basis of the statehood, okay? How states are being created, how the power is being created, authority is being created. People delegate a group of people, okay, to represent and to manage that.
Everyone knows that if I cannot sell my strawberry in Pakistan, I may try to sell them in Uzbekistan, for instance. Everyone who grows anything, everyone who manufactures anything, who renders service knows that.
If the minister tells me, okay, if you cannot sell your perishable goods, okay, in Russia try to sell them somewhere else how why on earth people pay taxes pay to the government if the minister says get rid of me try to find another another market this is not how it works and I hope the farmers when they go to to the voting persons they will remember what says if I want to like take my strawberries in a suitcase, for instance, and fly to Paris and try to sell them right in front of the Champs-Élysées, the presidential palace, so that Mr. Macron can come and buy a few of these fragolas or phrases, basically, sorry.
You know, fragolas is Italian. They will not allow him to sell.
Asbed: We understand the EU.
Arthur: Yeah, you know, he will not be allowed to sell his strawberries in France because the European standards, sanitary standards and norms are extremely high. So basically, that’s basically, return back to what I said, okay, you have to prepare the manufacturers to manufacture something that meets the requirements, that is demanded. and the government also has to open the doors, you know, through trade negotiations right so we are living in interesting times peace through strength and so on but until recently trade wars were more common than ordinary wars between the U.N. U.S. between the U.N. Asia Asia and the U.S.
So I can recall only Boeing and Airbus, the other trade wars were on agriculture, full agriculture products.
Hovik: Well, I just hope that Marco Rubio was able to take a few suitcases of strawberries with him, given that they were turned away at the Russian border. Now, Pashinyan in 2020 was saying that the Armenian army is the most capable in the region. But roughly a week ago he said that he inherited an army in shambles and claimed that he is rebuilding the military from zero, including the equipment. And in response to criticisms of the humongous 8 billion ballooning debt that Armenia has, he promised to show off those 8 billion dollars that were spent on military equipment at the military parade, or what he calls the accountability parade.
Now the parade came and went, so I wanted to ask you, what are your impressions? Did Pashinyan prove to you that he spent $8 billion on the military?
Asbed: May I also add one more thing, Arthur, before you answer? Over the past years, Armenia has been receiving hundreds of millions here, hundreds of millions there, mostly in loans, of course, so it’s adding to national debt. Has Pashinyan ever justified it as a loan towards the military? There’s always some, I’ve never seen it, never seen it.
So it’s either that we’re being lied to, that this money went to the military.
Arthur: Well, let’s start with Hovik, I’ll come back to your aspect. Okay. So a few days before the war, in Sardarabad, Pashinyan said, this military victory and the liberation of “Courageous Position” (“Anvakh Dirk”) in Tavush show that the Armenian army confirmed that’s the most combat-ready, most powerful army in the region. That was a few days before, like a month before the war.
Literally a few days before the war, I think six days before the war he introduced a document which still can be found on the government website Armenia 2050, the reform or transformation strategy, and it says Armenia shall be among the top 10 most combat ready armies per capita what does it mean combat ready army per capita No serviceman was able to explain it to me. I’d asked too many, to generals and colonels and so on. It was a strange time. But nevertheless, he said, the army is going to be one of the most powerful armies in the world.
And now he says, no, what I inherited was crap. Let me remind you that when the war started, the Minister of Defense was appointed by Pashinyan. the Chief of Staff was appointed by Pashinyan the commander of the Artsakh Defense Army was appointed by Pashinyan or by Armenia’s military okay so they you know all the commanders were appointed by Pashinyan, and the ex-commanders who were decorated military generals who have a very long track record of successful combat operation were just dismissed from the army.
Other than that, let me remind you that Aliyev himself told that Armenian army was the largest supplier of ammunition and weapons to Azerbaijan and he had opened this shameful park of trophies where on display displayed what kind of uh uh our military arsenal Armenia had like the long-range missiles and uh and uh long-range guns and so on and for many years for for at least past four years I’ve been trying to get an answer during the budget deliberation or budget execution report deliberation whether the power of Armenia’s army today in any metrics whether it’s a higher it’s more efficient or more combat ready more powerful than it was as of September 26, 2020. uh what I i didn’t see well it’s interesting basically he showed that the the weapons that he had bought after 2022 or 2023. if he had also demonstrated what he had inherited Iskander, Smerch, Solntsepyok and so on then people would see, okay, because having these nice little robot dogs uh it’s interesting it’s fun especially for the kids but uh what’s the efficiency in real combat?
No one has seen that uh back to your question about uh no he basically that was when he said I spent eight billion dollars to buy weapons uh that was an answer to my question when I said isolate the loans eight billion dollars and tell what will be the situation with the economy if not these eight billion dollars because you have to do that okay so it’s it’s it’s uh it’s not extremely sophisticated economic uh calculation it’s it’s doable But they didn’t do that. Instead, they go to the demagoguery and says, I paid $8 billion to buy weapons. Okay, I understand that. You can channel the budget support loans to buy weapons.
You can do that. But when you go to Asian Development Bank and say, okay, give me like $500 million or $20 million, I’m going to build a tunnel that will link Sisian to Kajaran. you know this this tunnel shall be built otherwise you have to pay back all the loan to Asian Development Bank or European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or International Development Association, which is part of the World Bank so basically this was just a bluff this was just pure bluffing. Exactly.
And other than that aspect basically you know if you can buy a rifle for let’s say $200 and I buy a rifle for $1,000 okay and I spent you spent $2,000 and I spent $5,000 it doesn’t mean that my military arsenal exceeds yours okay because by $2,000 you can get 10 rifles by $5,000 I can get only five rifles So this is pure manipulation. Of course, no price tag is attached, but if you read the open sources, especially the French equipment, which is of course a good one, it’s not very cheap. That’s right. Other than that, okay?
You have to harmonize that with your existing arsenal, you know?
Hovik: Not to mention that it’s all NATO standards. You can’t manufacture the artillery shells, the bullets, the ammunition.
Asbed: Well, I do wonder, Pashinyan was saying we have weaponry from seven countries. I do wonder what the interoperability is for some of these things, but…
Arthur: That’s exactly what I said, okay? They have to be, you know, compatible. But there is a NATO standard, the Warsaw Pact standard, and you know, you cannot use these bullets for your AK-474.
Asbed: So I want to talk a little bit about foreign policy, which is a defining issue also for Armenia, and the TRIPP project, which is central, it’s a central concern, and it’s a Pashinyan signature so-called achievement. Raising issues of sovereignty, national identity and more. What is Hayastan Dashinq’s position on TRIPP? Because I know that Robert Kocharyan has proposed a possible renegotiation of this project for an expanded version of the project.
Can you describe it for us? What’s your stance on this?
Arthur: For the infrastructure to be a unifying element and not a confrontation element, all the major stakeholders in the region shall have a stake in this project. Because today, when TRIPP is under the US management and the setup of the company raises many questions, The management of the borders raises many questions. The customs raises many questions. The tax exemption, the litigation jurisdiction, and so on.
It raises many issues, but obviously Iran is very concerned because If they say that we are going to, for instance, we are engaging a private security company to border the, to guard the borders, okay, it always raises issues. Who are these private military guys there? Are these U.S.
GIs or religious mercenaries there to hire for a standard military, private military organization? the same with the Russia of course they understand that the United States is getting through their back door so to avoid this we said that shall be breaks and Russia and Iran and the U.S. and European Union that’s our position other than that even if the rails of the railway are made of 24 karat gold this doesn’t lift the blockade of Armenia okay just guess From Horadiz through Meghri, then it goes to Nakhichevan Then from Nakhichevan. So you cannot get from Meghri to Ararat to Central Armenia.
So there’s no interconnectivity Within Armenia, we gave them unimpeded access controlled by the Americans. But instead we don’t got anything. Just a very minor transit Other than that there is
Asbed: As far as I know, Pashinyan has promised a reciprocal kind of an agreement. We haven’t heard anything about what we are getting. Are those going to be part of the negotiations by, let’s say, a Hayastan Dashinq or a coalition that Hayastan Dashinq is part of? to deal with this issue. I mean, right now it seems like a one-sided affair.
I’m also concerned about the percentages of ownership. 74%, was it 74 or 76%?
Arthur: 74 to 26 for the first 49 or 50 years, but they are also largely tax exempt.
Asbed: So, I mean, you wouldn’t get any penny or very little from that.
Arthur: When we first wrote this document, we said that, okay, the document says Armenia gives unimpeded access or unhindered access to Azerbaijan for mutual benefits. What are the mutual benefits? Anything can be classified as mutual benefits. Back in 2001, Pashinyan published an article saying that we can give them a corridor and then they pay us transit fees.
Transit fees can be mutual benefits.
They get access, they get unimpeded passage, we get money for that. uh and this and uh the Civil Contract uh politicians members of the Civil Contract and Pashinyan were saying that no mutually mutual benefits means that we will get access you will get access now we see there is no access when we say but there is no access they don’t give us an unhindered access we cannot travel through us through to Armenia they said okay yeah that’s because the Armenian Railroad is under uh Russian concession so it’s on the Russian concession that’s why the westerners are not interested in that so we need to get uh sell the concession to another country this is of course illogical because you know uh having the rail passing through Syunik okay it passes to Syunik if it’s a Russian concession why did Americans and Turks and Azeris agree so this means they’re up being part of Russian concession is not an impediment and the same is here okay or they can say that the existing railroad destinations can be managed by the Russian uh railways this part is managed by a completely different company and the same algorithm can work for Sadarak, Yeraskh, Yerevan, Gyumri and then to Kars.
So this bluff is just being circulated just to justify Azerbaijan for not providing corridor to Armenia. I see.
Asbed: Okay, I’m going to move to a question or two about the economy. I know you’re an economist and I’d like to hear your views and Hayastan Dashinq’s views of how the current state of the economy is and how you would manage the economy going forward. And one more question so that I can be done, part two or second question is, all of the money that’s being borrowed, this $8 billion that we have borrowed, has it gone to capital investments, assuming that it hasn’t been spent on defense, because I don’t believe that it has. Has it gone into capital investments that are going to keep paying off for the country in the future?
And if not, where has it gone?
Arthur: Well, two extremely important issues. No, I haven’t seen capital accumulation. The majority said, okay, the capital investments amounted to X, Y, Z. When you ask, where exactly this capital ran.
This is mainly mining industry, the Amulsar, that after dragging the effort for seven years, they gave license to Lydian after Lydian donated to the government 20% of its shares. And then they include the asphalt, the pavement into these capital investments.
Okay. and also when they speak about foreign direct and foreign investment it’s also very interesting they refinance foreign debt, and they also classify the refinancing as foreign investment okay so they can borrow from open market like half a billion dollars to refinance a more expensive debt which is a smart move, and this is usually done in the world but no one else classifies this borrowing or debt refinancing as direct investment so uh there was no accumulation and I don’t think that the numbers that the economic potential has gone up this is not true at all uh and the other thing is okay what me as economy you know the largest section of sector for me as economies retail and wholesale trade, the repairing of cars and bikes.
So we do not manufacture anything exportable Okay, it’s just a consumption-based economy, even the bank loans. Two-thirds of the bank loans are in consumption; they fund consumption, not manufacturing. So we have to change the structure of the economy, it shall be more manufacturing oriented, you know, the economic growth based on the competitive advantage of the nation. Plus, More support to Armenian manufacturers and a very big support package aimed at development of small and medium enterprises.
And plus, of course, the import substitution. Because we speak about the services, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, but look what’s happening in the U.S., okay? All this tariff issue is just an attempt of the U.S. president to bring part of manufacturing back to the United States. We have lost all our manufacturing.
Hovik: Arthur, while Pashinyan was holding his accountability parade in Yerevan, Meher Grikoyan was in Astana at the EAEU Summit, where he said that Armenia intends to fully continue its cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union this obviously flies in the face of logic since Armenia has declared its intention to join and Russian officials have said basically they’re done with Armenia trying to sit on two chairs but actually that is very logical.
More than a decade ago, the EU has said that you cannot be in a European Union and in a Eurasian Economic Union at the same time Now, at the summit, the four presidents of the EAEU have signed a joint statement or a letter to Pashinyan, the contents of which are not disclosed. What is your impression of the summit itself, and what do you think is in that secret letter? Do you think it’s some kind of an ultimatum to Armenia by the presidents of the Eurasian Economic Union?
Arthur: Well, to start with, I agree to what you said. and I bring this example even on the floor of the National Assembly I said imagine you go to your wife and you said you know my dear wife I have a girlfriend I want to marry her but she doesn’t agree yet so until she agrees will you be kind enough to cook me dinner and to wash my clothes of course she will say no Okay, so you cannot say I’m bound for the European Union, but until they open their doors for me, you know, I’ll meet the benefits of being a member of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Of course, the Eurasian Economic Union will say either or. okay just make up your mind you cannot sit on both chairs and also the second issue I was actually the member of an expert team hired by European Commission’s DG Trade Directorate-General for Trade to do the trade sustainability impact assessment so I was not politically involved back in 2013 but on a technical level I was involved in the trade sustainability impact assessment and you are right when uh On the 3rd of December, Armenians made an announcement that’s joining the Eurasian Economic Union.
There was an immediate reaction from a European partners saying that you cannot sit on both chairs. And no one said, you are just blackmailing. But now the Pashinyan and his party says Eurasian Economic Union blackmails us. Well, they said, you know, we have our national interest.
You are not a part of the team. You are not a part of the club. So why shall we sell you natural gas at these highly subsidized rates? Other than that, okay, why shall we open our markets for your products, for your farmers, and so on and so forth?
So I think this shall be somehow worded in a letter to Pashinyan. I don’t think that it can be… very ultimatum-like because of at least one country who is a very powerful lobbyist of Organization of Turkic States. I’m talking about Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan, of course, denied Pashinyan’s offer to buy the concession from the Russians on the railway.
But nevertheless, I think that The leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union have made it clear that they are not going to tolerate this anymore and should have called Armenia to make up their mind. However, you know, when we say Eurasian Economic Union, we understand that, you know, not too many things we sell to Belarus or buy from Belarus or to Kazakhstan. The majority of the trade goes to Russia. Okay?
Armenia can, you know, formally they cannot kick Armenia out of Eurasian Economic Union, but Russia can stop selling gas to Armenia at subsidized rates. Russia can deport Armenian immigrants, like what the U.S. is doing or Germany is doing. And you understand there’s all kind of these inspection agencies that operate in Russia they are also part of their Ministry of Foreign Affairs, if not Ministry of Defense. Okay?
So Rosselkhoznadzor, Russia’s agricultural inspection agency.
Hovik: I was just doing a quick back of the napkin calculation, and just for the gas alone that Armenia pays, if it paid the market price, the price the Europeans pay, that would be an additional $1 billion a year price tag for Armenia. Now the Russians have also said that the nuclear plant’s lifetime will be reduced by five years, so instead of 2036 it will be 2031, but I think the most significant actually is the You know, tens of thousands of Armenians migrate or go as seasonal workers in Russia. They fly to Russia to work and they bring their money back home. And Putin explicitly mentioned that as well.
And like, has anyone done a combined analysis of what the economic impact to Armenia would be? I mean, we know $1 billion just from gas. What is the total price tag for Pashinyan’s misadventure?
Arthur: Well, I’m afraid no one has done this exercise. Maybe it’s worth doing. Or the government has done that, but of course they will not disclose the results of this analysis. The Russian President Putin said, Armenia will lose 14% of his GDP.
But obviously, you know, if they sell gas at European prices, And we understand that it will have a very systemic inflationary impact on Armenia because, you know, we use gas not only to heat houses, but also to bake bread.
Asbed: Arthur, can I, for reference, give the prices? I believe that Armenia gets it for $177 per cubic meter and Europe gets it for $633, I believe, today’s prices. Just a near quadrupling of the price. Yeah, no, I agree.
Arthur: I agree. This is awful. Okay, this is awful. And, you know, the prices that are quoted are the prices on the board, right?
The consumers will get, like if Armenia buys gas at $660, I think the households, it will get to the households for nearly $1,000 because it’s VAT plus the fixed cost plus the markup of the, yeah, the fixed cost, the overhead plus the markup. So we will be buying it at $1,000 instead of like $250, $300 today. And plus again, okay, the other factories, okay, they use the natural gas to manufacture their goods. I mean, it’s not very competitive these days, especially the agriculture is not very competitive because like the Iranians and the Turks have much, much cheaper gas.
And then we’re talking about the economy of scale, but only the energy is much, much cheaper. So the products, the crop out of the greenhouses is much cheaper. So we will lose, completely lose our industries.
Asbed: Now we know why Russia is taking these negative trade actions at present, but in the context of the elections, is it actually helping or hurting Pashinyan or is it helping or hurting the opposition more?
Arthur: Well, we listen to different opinions. of course many say that, okay, you see that the Russians are not our friends, we need to protect our country from Russia’s aggression and so on the others say, okay, you know, what you say is very nice words but people are going to lose uh all their expected income and the people are going to uh be heavily indebted, will not be able to pay back the loans that they borrowed to grow the crops or to manufacture their products. They have to be realistic, okay?
Again, Europe will not admit us to the European Union tomorrow, but tomorrow already, today already, you are not being able to sell your products to Eurasian Economic Union. The time, like I think they announced that starting from 30th or 31st, They will limit the import of Armenian fruits and vegetables. I don’t know what will be the impact, but today we’ll see lots and lots of trucks on the border crossing and we’ve seen that many people were not able to sell their strawberries or cherries.
They brought them back to Armenian wholesale markets, you know, Of course, it will be easier to buy the cherries for the town folks, but if it’s not profitable for the farmers to grow these crops, they will not grow them next year. So this will be a problem. What will be the reaction? I really don’t know.
We need a few more days to see how it boils.
Asbed: Okay. Well, Mr. Khachatryan, thank you very much for joining us today and good luck on June 7.
Arthur: Thank you. Thank you. The pleasure is mine and see you next time. I don’t know.
Asbed: Soon, I hope.
Arthur: After the elections. Okay, gentlemen. Have a nice day. Bye-bye.
Bye-bye.
Asbed: Okay. Well, that was our show recorded on May 30, 2026. We’ve been talking with Mr. Arthur Khachatryan, who is an MP, a member of Parliament from the Hayastan Dashinq, Armenia Alliance, a member of the ARF, Dashnaktsutyun.
In the past, he has held government posts such as Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration and Development, Governor of Shirak, and Minister of Agriculture. He’s also an economist. For more information, go to our podcast episode page. That’s podcasts.groong.org slash episode number.
Hovik: Don’t forget to like, comment, and share, folks. It’s very important. Hopefully, you’ll consider it the least that you can do to boost us. And there’s also this hype thing, so feel free to hype us as well.
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Asbed: talk to you soon have a great day