In this Week in Review episode, Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian discusses the stalled Iran negotiations after the Islamabad talks, the renewed pressure around Hormuz and the naval blockade, Turkey’s posture toward Israel and the region; Armenia’s lower-profile participation in the Antalya Diplomatic Forum; Russia’s shifting rhetoric on TRIPP and the South Caucasus; and the June 7 parliamentary election in Armenia, including constitutional changes, border concessions, the gas pipeline rerouting issue, and the use of surveillance and arrests against opposition figures.
Warning: This is a rush transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.
Asbed: Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Armenian News Network Groong Weekend Review for April 19, 2026. Today we’re talking with Ambassador Dziunik Aghajanian, who has served in the Armenian Foreign Ministry in the past as a diplomat. Our main topics today, an update on the war on Iran since the talks in Islamabad, a brush through the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, and we will catch up with the developments as we head into the Armenian parliamentary elections in June.
Ambassador Aghajanian, great to have you back on The Groong Podcast.
Dziunik: Thank you for having me.
Hovik: Hello, Dziunik jan.
Dziunik: Hi, Hovik jan.
Asbed: Ambassador, you know that we have some of your fans listening on YouTube. They are always writing. Every time we interview you, they say, ah, my favorite guest. So we love to have you on the show.
Absolutely.
Dziunik: Well, I hope I’m helpful in giving some understanding of what is going on.
Hovik: And I promise that’s not me using a fake ID, but she’s my favorite guest too.
Asbed: So we’ll give a shout out to our listener who actually likes you so much. I think the handle is LisaHolt.
Dziunik: Thanks Lisa!
Asbed: Anyway, thanks for listening. Okay, let’s head into our first topic, the Iran war. After two rounds of U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad, There seemed to be an agreement that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a number of other conditions would also start being implemented by both sides. But as of today, Monday, April 20th, things don’t seem to be going well.
The U.S. has captured an Iranian cargo ship and kept the blockade on Iranian ports. So Iran has responded by closing Hormuz again and has cut off the talks. World markets seem to be reacting negatively to the news with concerns about renewed war and energy shortfalls. Ambassador, what is your read of the current status of negotiations and the possible continuation of the war?
Dziunik: Well, let’s be honest. The situation has calmed down from the state of exhaustive bombardments. to the possibility of some agreement over some kind of a ceasefire that will hold for a relatively long time. What helped the situation to calm down a little bit was that the US was not prepared for a lengthy war. I think they were ready for just a quick victory, which they hoped would come with the help of some kind of a revolution or rebellion in Iran after their bombardments that will help change the regime and bring them to their knees with the understanding that they have to do what the US and Israel tells them to do.
However, as I think in our previous discussion I mentioned, it won’t work because the type of approach towards Iran and Iranian people was wrong. They don’t understand their mentality. They don’t understand their goals, their aspirations. And this wrong reading of the situation brought to the state that we’re in.
I’m happy that some possible discussion was carried out in Islamabad. And as we heard from Iranian side, they went to the negotiation table with the willingness to really negotiate. But the US side, as I would expect, was not ready to really talk. They were ready simply to demand. and put forward certain demands, which are unrealistic.
They have no legal grounds. And of course, Iranian side would never even agree to discuss them. So that was the outcome of the first round of negotiations in Islamabad. And then later on, of course, the countries in the region, with the help of China and Russia, They kind of encourage the Iranian side to look into the situation and try again to do something.
And we know that the U.S. with the oil markets and a situation with their allies is not favorable to the continuation of the war, together with the resources for the weaponry that are being exhausted in in very fast manner without the possibility of replenishing them in the soonest possible time that would help continue the war. So they were eager to make an attempt. But as we have seen with this administration and usually with the U.S., approach, it’s simply deadline and take it or leave it approach being presented to the negotiation table, which is not negotiation per se. They think it’s a deal, but Iranians are not working for a deal.
They are working for a resolution, which means not a temporary pause to the situation, but a final resolution of all the outstanding issues that would guarantee peace and prosperity for the region in the coming decades, not just two months, three months, six months, one year, and then another attempt to subjugate them. So this is what is happening. With the attempt of the blockade, the Trump administration, Trump himself, thought that he’s doing a favor to the negotiations, but actually he’s He’s pulling the leg out of the table. So this is not going to work because the Iranian side has the upper hand in this situation.
They have the support of their public. They have the support of the part of the world that is just sick and tired of the American hegemony and this kind of a stick approach that we have seen during the last decades, the possibility of just deciding that I don’t like this leader and that he or she has to go or even kidnapping them for their own desire to grab the oil resources of that country. So the Iranian side has the support, possibly not vocal in many instances, but they have the support of this part of the world. And the U.S. support is just dwindling and melting away with every passing day.
I think today was a telephone discussion between the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers and the encouragement from the Russian side to do everything to continue the negotiations and not to allow the military encounter resume. So we will see this kind of a drag situation. But I think that is also favorable for the US side, because they are not ready for a lengthy war, and especially boots on the ground, which is something that will be devastating for the Trump administration. I think in the near weeks, we will see this a pro attempt to discuss something, then an escalation a little bit, but not really resumption of military activities.
Asbed: Ambassador, what’s your assessment of Pakistan’s role in facilitating these talks? And as you were talking about what the United States is doing right now, I can’t help but think, are they Well, maybe even Defense Secretary Hegseth had said, are they using, is the United States using these talks as an opportunity to reload for the next phase of more aggression?
Dziunik: Definitely. I think he’s now called Secretary of War.
Asbed: Yes.
Dziunik: Yeah.
Asbed: And he’d be out of a job if there wasn’t a war.
Dziunik: Well, I don’t know about that, but I think that’s their understanding of world leadership and hegemony. They are trying to reload, but the thing is they cannot reload fast enough to continue immediately. They need at least six to 12 months time to get really prepared. given first the elections that you’re going to have, the midterm elections. Secondly, the production lines, they are not ready for this kind of, according to different experts from the military side, stating that the resources are not enough for the production as fast as they can.
And I think the U.S. is thinking of some kind of a defense strategy against unmanned aircrafts, as well as the possibility of forcing the neighboring states eventually to go with their commitments and participate in the ground attack. So this will take time. I think starting from May, the real election campaign will go full force. And in that situation, to have a losing war at hand is not something that Trump administration can afford.
So we are speaking about this eagerness to keep this high note of tension in the rhetoric, but in real time, they are trying to do as much as possible to extend this period without any real agreement, but also having some chance of opening the Hormuz Strait in order for the cargo ships commuting without any hindrance. But Iran is definitely not going to play what the U.S. wants it to do. They are going to maximize their position and strategy, both at the negotiation table and on the ground right now, the upper hand that they have in the situation.
As for Pakistan, I’m happy that at least there was one country that could agree to host talks because of the situation of tensions between the Arab neighbors. And the U.S. wouldn’t agree to go to talk in Russia or in China. So Pakistan was a more or less acceptable country in that situation. And Turkey is not even being considered because Turkey is part of the equation.
Turkey is part of the plan. So, and let’s not forget that the Iranian officials have to think about their security as well. And I think that even during the last travel to Pakistan, they were really worried about their safety.
Asbed: That’s right. I read today that the Pakistani, I think, was it the prime minister had called Trump and had said that the blockade of Iranian ports was not leading to peace. So Trump had apparently responded that he will consider that.
Hovik: Which blockade? Was it the original blockade? The blockade of the blockade or the blockade of the blockade of the blockade?
Asbed: The current ongoing blockade.
Dziunik: The U.S. blockade and especially their attempt to show Again, that they can force some kind of a peace deal, as they call it, as usually. It has become a derogative now, the word peace deal. And I think that they don’t understand the situation at all, and they are not even eager to look into the situation. They are not even listening to people who are trying to explain them.
And whatever steps they are taking is just hurting back to the U.S. situation and the U.S. prestige.
Asbed: I had a question about Russia and China standing idly by, if they can actually stay outside. But given the Pakistani call and response from Trump, it’s maybe more proper to ask, Pakistan as an ally of China, are they channeling China’s concerns about the blockade because they are obviously recipients of Iranian oil and the blockade would hinder that?
Hovik: Also, Pakistan, I just want to, before doing answers, Pakistan is a close military ally of Saudi Arabia.
Asbed: And the United States, actually.
Hovik: Yeah, so its loyalty goes multiple directions.
Asbed: Correct.
Dziunik: Well, I don’t think Russia and China are sitting idle. They are helping according to their understanding and the best way they can support Iran, but not without getting directly involved. in the situation. They were very helpful in strengthening the Iranian defense capabilities after the 12-day war last year. And I think they are doing a lot without even showing it.
They don’t need to show it. And both of them understand that if Iran falls, it will be devastating for both of them. It would mean immediately military actions in South Caucasus, which will be the second front for Russia. And you can imagine what it means.
And then the vector of attack will quickly move to China. So both of them prefer stopping this kind of attitude and actions in Iran rather than allowing it to spread even further. Besides, I heard that China decided to send their military escort ships to escort the oil vessels that are taking oil from Persian Gulf to China. And that is also a responsive action to the so-called blockade by U.S.
So if U.S. decides to attack any ship that is taking oil to China and which is being escorted by Chinese warships, then you can imagine what it means. So it will be also some kind of a deterrence in that situation. So they are trying not to allow the tensions to expand, and they are taking actions that would on one side put the US in a difficult situation of continuing that kind of a war rhetoric and on the other side safeguard the transportation of oil from the Gulf. So let’s see how it develops.
I think in the coming week or 10 days time we’ll see a little bit of movement forward. I can imagine that Iran would definitely agree to some kind of control from IAEA over the enriched uranium for their monitors and experts to come and assess the situation on the ground, have some kind of a container that will be safeguarded by the IAEA, but on the Iranian soil. I don’t think they will ever agree to some kind of exportation of this uranium from Iran. And I’m not even speaking about US in this case.
And these are some kind of agreement possibilities that can be there. But I think today also Israel attacked Lebanon again. So we have this third player in the equation. And for Netanyahu, No military action equals to him being taken to court.
So he’s doing everything not to allow the kind of a ceasefire to work. With Netanyahu, we will see this periodic attacks over Lebanon, over Gaza, over Syria. So we will see this attempt to keep the heat up and not allow it to cool down. because he has his own plans and he’s not eager to give them up, both for his personal reasons and for his, I don’t know, greater Israel project that they are trying to implement at the expense of the neighboring states.
Asbed: I have to say that while I understand that there will be some compromise to allow the IAEA to come in and do some oversight, I’m a little surprised that Iran would give in to this because in the past they have already accused the IAEA of spying for Israel on Iran’s capabilities.
Dziunik: Well, they can have, say, Chinese and Russian experts together with other experts. Well, if the enriched uranium is kept in Iran, then it is less of a danger than agreeing. Well, I don’t imagine them ever agreeing to have it exported or taken out of the country. The maximum that they agreed was to stop enrichment for a certain period of time.
And you know that according to IAEA, enriching uranium is not against the convention. So it’s not an illegal action. It’s just the U.S. wants it to be considered an illegal action, but it’s not an illegal action. It’s a different thing that they have an ally called Israel who has actually developed a nuclear weapon, and I think their own experts are giving in the information, giving away the information.
And in that case, if they are really talking about international law, they have to first look into Israel and put them into IAA control mechanisms rather than look into a neighboring country, which they want to subjugate, but they cannot do it up until now.
Asbed: great resilience in surviving this war. And of course, as we know, the TRIPP project in the south of Armenia crosses a lot of Iran’s stated red lines. What do you think the future of the TRIPP can be after this war?
Dziunik: Well, you know that TRIPP project is part of that pan-Turkic project.
Asbed: What they call the Zangezur Corridor, essentially.
Dziunik: Yes. And the plan was to have Iran fully encircled with non-friendly elements, let’s call it elements. And in that case, they decided that having probably an American oversight over that area would not raise concerns in the Armenian public. But for the Armenian public, it doesn’t make any difference knowing well that Turkey is considered to be a good ally, especially for the Trump administration.
And their ambassador, Barrack, was speaking about that after the First World War, certain nations got independence, which they shouldn’t have had, meaning Armenia shouldn’t have got independence, and they should have been still subjugated to the Turkish rule. I don’t know where his expertise is coming from, but I can imagine that him having this from the Turkish side and from the Israeli side with their ultimate plans of having the whole Middle East under US/Israeli oversight. So I think that TRIPP, you call it TRIPP, they call it Zangezur Corridor, is really something that will be devastating for Armenia and for Armenia’s independence.
I hope that in the coming elections, which is June 7, we will managed to change this government.
And with that, change the whole perspective of any kind of communication with Azerbaijan or Turkey and have something that will be under full Armenian control that will not raise any security concerns for our neighbors, especially Iran, that has been traditionally for the last 200 years very friendly to us and very attentive to the Armenian community, Armenian cultural heritage that is located, you know, that part of historic Armenia is currently in Iran, in the Islamic Republic of Iran territory, and they are just taking excellent care of our monuments.
Even some of them are put under UNESCO World Heritage Site, So I hope that we have this chance of turning the table and making it possible for both Armenia to stay intact because implementation of this TRIPP project would mean cutting part of Armenia and putting it under some foreign occupation. And I’m using the word occupation because it would mean occupation. And with that also, but making Armenia target for the coming military actions that are being planned by the US and Israel right now against Iran.
So if this plan is being implemented, it would mean that military forces, equipment will be transported by that route to the occupied territories of Artsakh, which is currently under Azerbaijani rule and from where they expect participation of forces and also of mercenaries that they have taken even during the 44-day war to those parts that they will attack Iran from the northern side. So we will have to be very careful and I think June 7 elections will be very decisive in the sense that whether we have Armenian Republic in its full composition or we will have it as a target in the coming war.
Hovik: Yeah, indeed, Dziunik. So let’s come to Turkey for a short while. So this year, neither Pashinyan nor Mirzoyan attended the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, and Armenia was represented by a deputy foreign minister. This is the first time, I believe, since 2022, when Armenia didn’t have a high-profile representation in that forum.
That forum was actually started in 2021. So anyway. Armenia, as I said, was a really zealous participant in this annual forum and this year’s absence essentially was very glaring from that perspective. Why did Armenia decline to participate this year?
Dziunik: Well, as I said, we have coming elections and there’s meetings with Turkish officials and every meeting of the prime minister or foreign minister in the past years was very much criticized by the public. So they decided to send somebody who is part of the team. He is well accepted by the Turkish side. He knows all the details.
He’s also part of the negotiating team. So he’s not something that is simply an irrelevant person in this particular case. but who wouldn’t raise many questions. Also, they had the Speaker of the Parliament there as part of the inter-parliamentary union gathering. So in that sense, they kind of compensated the lack of the political leadership by the representatives, both representatives there.
But they know that additional criticism in the public would kill even this minute possibility of getting some votes from their side. And they decided not to add oil into the fire in this particular case.
Hovik: Some analysts were theorizing that Armenia was not happy with Turkey basically not providing any support for Pashinyan’s elections. Many were expecting that Turkey would do some kind of minimal border crossing opening negotiations. But I don’t think we’re going to see that. I mean, or if it happens, then it will happen in the next month or two.
But what do you think about that theory where Pashinyan was expecting more from Erdogan in terms of diplomatic gestures and he didn’t get it?
Dziunik: Well, those were simple expectations. But people who know the Turkish policy and the way they act, have always said that they are not going to do anything. And the Turkish side had said that they would consider opening the border after the signing of the peace agreement. And you know, the Azeri preconditions, those that are being articulated now, and the list goes on that is not being presented in full.
So they would try to get as much as possible before they do any positive step toward normalization of relations. And honestly, they don’t want normalization of relations. They want to get Armenia under their full control, be it politically, militarily, economically, but without kind of make a dependent Armenia on their wishes and wills rather than have normal relations with Armenia. So if you take this mentality, of course they won’t do anything, especially they know that given the public attitude towards the current prime minister, it won’t help much.
If they knew that that step would change the public discourse and bring him into winning positions, maybe if it was honestly Biden administration, you might have got something there. But with Trump administration and with the current situation in Iran, I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Hovik: It’s unique, John, I’m really disappointed. I was looking forward to Erdogan campaigning with Pashinyan and Yerevan, eating piroshky together and going on the happy bus. I’m disheartened to not see that happening.
Dziunik: After piroshky, he will be hospitalized. So let’s keep him alive.
Hovik: Well, I don’t know.
Dziunik: Maybe something healthy, like biking around Yerevan.
Hovik: Yeah.
Dziunik: Well, you notice that no matter what this guy does, he kind of discredits it. And nobody accepts because he is so false and fake in his actions. It’s not coming from his… real intention and everybody understand that it’s just a theatrical play and they
Hovik: just don’t don’t accept it they don’t… Yea, i mean last year he was a fitness guru on a bike this year he’s a piroshki eating like glutton you know part of the regular public you know blue collar people…
Dziunik: Now he’s playing the drums so now he’s a
Hovik: Rock star, yea.
Dziunik: He is trying his best to gain some attention. And it’s, see the poor guy, it’s not working. Even his hat is not working.
Hovik: Anyway, so let’s go back to the Antalya Diplomatic Forum. Hikmet Hajiyev was there representing the Sultan of Baku, and he declared that regional countries should set their own agenda without any external interference. Now, that’s rich coming from the Azerbaijani government, who is the key beneficiary of TRIPP, which is basically a U.S. regional interference project, nothing else. So while Iran has already hardened its rhetoric against TRIPP, Russia, which had initially a more cautious approach, also appears to be shifting.
And after Nikol’s trip to Moscow, basically overtook, invoked the Treaty of Turkmenchai, of all treaties, and said that basically Basically, this TRIPP disrupts the regional balance that has been in place since 1828. So two aspects. To what can we attribute this new rhetoric that now we’re against regional interference? Is it recognition that Iran has essentially been victorious in this conflict so far?
Or maybe some kind of an overture towards Russia as well? What are your thoughts?
Dziunik: Well… Aliyev knows that our prime minister is fully in his hands and he has no way to disappear and he is fulfilling all his demands without even considering the legality of his actions. So that’s a preferred action for Aliyev. And Russia has fully understood the Western intentions of turning Armenia into anti-Russia. and using Armenia as a foothold for their actions both against Russia and against Iran.
So in that case, of course, Russia’s position has become more open than it was before, especially Pashinyan raising the question of the management of the Armenian railways. And the next step would be for the Russian military bases being closed in Armenia. And I don’t exclude that their plan is to organize something like 2022 Jermuk action in order to engage the Russian forces in military actions to open the so-called Second Front. And if it doesn’t work, then say, OK, park your suitcases and get out of here.
So this is part of this taking Russia out of the region equation that has been in place with the Western slash European efforts to bring into reality for the last eight years and for which Artsakh was presented as a bonus to Azerbaijan. So for Azerbaijan, having this no mediators, no third party situation is the best thing because they know that our current leader sitting in the prime minister’s chair has no way to escape from the situation.
So I’m not surprised that we get this kind of rhetoric from them, but I don’t think this is going to work because the situation, especially with Iran showing so much resilience and actually coming out much stronger in the political sense as a regional leader, I would even call, from this situation is going to change the situation. And it’s not to Azerbaijani benefit because they have become a stronghold for Israeli forces and for the Western project. So this is not something that they want to happen, but let’s wait and see how history goes.
Hovik: Zunik, you mentioned that Pashinyan actually wants to take Russia out of the equation.
Dziunik: It’s his commitment.
Hovik: It’s his commitment, yes. But we get that part, but I want to understand what are Russia’s playing cards? Because we know that Overchuk, was in Azerbaijan and also occupied Artsakh, in Kovsakan last week, where he announced Russia’s intention to take part in reconstruction. Also, Azerbaijan and Russia have publicly announced that they have closed the AZAL issue.
Does Russia still have playing cards to play in the South Caucasus if things remain the same? And I’m more concerned about carrots and not sticks. What carrots can Russia offer to Georgia to Armenia and even Azerbaijan to keep the South Caucasus free from outside intervention instead of allowing them to be the countries to be used for as tools for outside intervention?
Dziunik: Well, so far, Russia has presented carrots to all these countries and given the vast economic market that it has, plus the Eurasian economic market that is there. And we’re talking about two thirds of the world population.
So it’s an enormous opportunity for all these countries, small countries that have benefited so far from the economic cooperation with Russia and the possibility of building on the industrial and scientific advantages that Russia has developed during especially the last several years, given his military refurbishment of the whole industry and like everyday change and advancement, tuning of his own military capabilities to the current challenges.
I think you won’t find an army right now that is capable of standing against Russian army in the current type of a war, because they have become masters of this war, both in defense sense and in attack offensive capabilities. So from economic perspective, you were talking about an enormous market. which does not usually present any political preconditions for your participation in this market. It just asks for equal normal relationship. Second is the scientific development, and we’re talking about two huge countries, Russia and China, from which those countries can benefit.
Third, the military capabilities. And the fourth is the resources, oil resources, oil and gas resources.
Hovik: Armenia gets extremely cheap gas from Russia.
Dziunik: Right now, it’s in consideration to what the rest of the world, especially the Western world, gets. It’s inconceivable the price that we’re paying for this gas and the security of this gas. used to have issues in the early 90s, but since then, and it’s not to Georgia’s benefit to risk the transportation of gas to Armenia in any sense. So they are doing their utmost to secure its safe transportation.
And in that sense, when we are talking about the north-south communication, Then Iran comes into play and then we are connected to the rest of the developing world, which to my estimation will be the fastest growing and advancing part of the world in the coming 20, 25 years. we are very competitive because then you don’t have this kind of Western quotas and Western sanctions and the Western double play that does not allow you to develop, but they want you to kind of become dependent on that and only serve their interests.
So I think for the public, for the countries, for their safety and security, I don’t remember Russia attacking any of their neighbors unless you risk their own security. So even for Ukraine, they were trying to do their utmost to secure some kind of a peaceful resolution to the situation. But they realized that NATO is actually putting bomb under their own borders and expecting Russia to simply wait and see when it will blow up the whole country. So this is something that we have to take into consideration with the U.S. administration and the way they act.
They just say, I don’t like the color of your eyes, so you have to go. In that situation, you have a much more serious, realistic, and trustworthy partners on this part of the world and on the Western part, where sometimes you look at these people and say, my God, where did they come from? So if you want some predictable future to be planned for your own country, for your own people, I think this part of the world is much safer, currently at least, than you would expect from the West.
Asbed: Ambassador, let me take us to domestic politics in Yerevan right now as we head into the elections in June. During the past month or so, Pashinyan has made a number of strange statements which simply do not fit in a democratic narrative, to say the least. For example, Pashinyan has said that if he is not elected, there is going to be a catastrophic war in September. He has said that civil contract must have a constitutional majority in the next parliament.
He’s also recently, just this past week, said Robert Kocharian and Hayastan Dashinq, Samvel Garabedian and strong Armenia, and Gagik Tsarukyan and his Prosperous Armenia must not make it into the next parliament. Now, Civil Contract people have warned that these three opposition forces that we just named could win a collective majority in the June election and oust Pashinyan and Civil Contract from being the ruling power in the country. But Pashinyan has said that the authorities will never allow such an outcome. So let’s look at some of these assertions one at a time.
Why does Pashinyan need to not only win, but also must have a constitutional majority in the next parliament?
Dziunik: Well, there are certain demands he has to fulfill. One of them is the change of the constitution and to make it according to the Azeri and Turkish likings, which means taking all Armenian issues, all Armenian aspirations out of that constitution and also attacking the Armenian church. So for that, he needs, as he called his own party members’ backpacks, to have his own backpack sitting there and just pushing the buttons according to his telling. So also he has to make some concession, territorial concessions as well, to which he has agreed and he has commitments against it.
So for that, he needs also a constitutional majority so that he can have all this agreement passed through the parliament without any hindrance and then go to the president, who is nobody currently, and he’s just a stamping body sitting there. And then for the constitutional court as well, not to say no or not to say that it is against the constitution. That is why he needs the constitutional majority to pass all the concessions, all the commitments that he hasn’t yet fulfilled against the Azeri and Turkish commitments to have them pass smoothly and without any hindrance.
Asbed: To this point, There was a news item about a month ago that Pashinyan has applied to the Georgian side to move the gas pipeline a few kilometers over into Armenia. Do you think that this has something to do with the territorial concessions he is planning to make after June? Or is there some technical reason why that pipeline must be moved at the cost of tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars?
Dziunik: Well, it has to do both with the concessions he already made in the current area and also those that are coming because this pipeline is crossing according to the Azeri drawing of our map. And I’m saying Azeri drawing because it has no legality. In certain areas, it crosses their territory. So he thinks that they are going to move it further further into Armenian territory so that they can easily and without hindrance give those territories to Azeris.
Yes, it has to do with all these commitments.
Asbed: I should mention that those maps, according to which they’re doing border delimitations, are entirely at the whim of Aliyev.
Dziunik: Yes, nobody has seen those maps. Nobody has seen those maps. They are claiming they are the general command maps from 1975 and some years which have nothing to do with the reality, and they are not opening those maps because if they open up those maps then people will see that these borders apparently have shifted somehow to areas where they shouldn’t and The funny thing is that initially they stated that these maps were passed to them by the British and the Americans, which are not the original holders of those maps.
The originals are in Russia, and Russia said that they are willing and they are ready to help with the maps, but nobody applied to them to get the real maps because that was not the intention. And with the current technologies, you know how somebody can just simply redraw a map and then present it as if it is closer to the original. So nobody can trust those maps because they have nothing to do with the reality.
And also, I think your public might have not heard that Armenian SSR and the Azeri SSR have carried out the delimitation of… in 87 finished and an agreement signed in 88 with every single meter being delineated and even in certain areas even these poles have been demarcated and the poles have been up until now they are standing there. People can show it so this has been put aside because this is not to their understanding. And according to these agreed upon maps, Kirants was not supposed to be crossed into two. So there are certain areas that Azerbaijan has to return to Armenia, and I’m not even speaking about Sev Lich and other areas.
Hovik: Right, right. It’s ridiculous because looking at the principles of demarcation and delimitation, you’re supposed to take into account the interests of the populations on both sides of the borders and not create a pretext for future war. I mean, that’s one of the main interests. But what we’re seeing with Washington…
Dziunik: first you have to take into consideration the existing legal documents if you put those legal documents aside and you take somebody’s presented some kind of a map that nobody knows where it came from, who drew those maps, and just try to convince your own people that we have to give this area and that area and this area and that area when the people… I’m sorry, their grandparents have been living in that area. They have been living in that area. And they say, but we have never been part of Azerbaijan SSR.
Why these territories have to go to Azerbaijan? And there are even people who remember all this delineation process and all this disagreement that have been there and different kind of administrative officials have discussed all. And they remember that and they tell that. So when you have legal data, unlike many other countries, many other republics from the Soviet Union, we have two legal documents, one from 1926, the second one in 1988 in January, signed and stamped and legalized.
So you put all this aside and you go with something that nobody knows, nobody trusts, nobody believes that it has any accuracy.
Hovik: Even with that, right, I mean, if you take the principle of security of the populations, we have a situation where the Armenian government appears to have, the so-called Armenian government, the de facto Armenian government, has agreed for Azerbaijan to control basically territory that is within 100 meters from the North-South highway. So, Azerbaijani military has direct, I mean, it’s almost touching the North-South communication, one of the critical arteries of Armenia. What has Pashinyan done? He has built this tall… wall made out of metal, or whatever, a very thin
Dziunik: wall, it’s called the wall of shame actually, yeah and it’s not tall it’s a wire something that that has no not nothing to do with security so it’s a joke And let’s not forget that with this, there are actions, some people’s houses, the part of the house was left under Azeri control, part of the house.
Asbed: Kapan Airport’s runways are within meters of their posts.
Dziunik: Kapan Airport is only 50 meters, 50 meters. And in certain villages, the people cannot go even to cemetery to bury those that have passed away and even pay tribute to their relatives. So, I mean, let’s not start there. It’s a long story.
Asbed: So I understand that he wants constitutional majority in order to cut out the Armenian people from having a say in these concessions.
Dziunik: In order to fulfill all the commitment that he has against the Azeri.
Asbed: Behind the back of the Armenian people. I just want to be very clear.
Dziunik: Yes.
Asbed: So what does it mean when the Ruling party, civil contract says that they are not going to allow the opposition to come to power, even if they win a popular mandate, the popular vote.
Dziunik: Well, I think they are going to do everything, even violation of electoral processes, in order to not to allow for the real outcome to be registered. But I don’t think it’s going to work. We have some concerns that they are doing something with the electoral list. They are trying to convince people, give some promises in order to encourage them to vote for the civil contract.
You know, the enormous amount of so-called rewards that they are giving to public officials. millions and millions of Armenian drams, which equals to several thousands of dollars, which is unimaginable as wages or rewards for Armenian officials. So this is also kind of an official bribe that they are giving to public officials in order to encourage them to vote for them. So they are going to do everything, and they have a green light from the Europeans to do that simply in order to get reelected.
Hovik: So Pashinyan’s entire claim has been that he has brought peace to Armenia and irreversible peace. Let’s leave aside the fact that he brought multiple wars and every one of which he lost with catastrophic consequences for our nation. Then why is it that if there’s peace, then there will be war if he’s not elected?
Dziunik: Yeah, because there is no peace. And as I explained, it’s quite possible that they’re having plans to organize some kind of a border clashes and another attack from Azerbaijanis side in order to get the Russians out of Armenia. That was part of the plan in 2022. And as you saw, they said the collective security treaty out of the country.
So I don’t exclude these plans being there. And the first intention for him to say, if I’m not the one sitting at the helm of the government, then you’ll have war in order to bring fear to people’s minds. But I think that’s already a past issue for many in the public. Secondly, he simply kind of reveals that he has some agreements with the Azarian Turkish side. on how he’s going to implement the plans.
So whatever he says, one side is directed to Armenian public, the second side is directed to Azeris and Turkish side that, believe me, I’m going to do what I have promised. So this is something that we have to take from his words.
Hovik: One of the preconditions that we talked about or that you mentioned for so-called peace by Azerbaijan, or capitulation, I would say, is Armenia’s constitution, which Aliyev has demanded that Armenia change. That’s just one of the demands. And Armenia has committed, saying that, yes, the constitution will be changed, although they have tried to present it as, yeah, we’re changing it, not because of Azerbaijan.
Dziunik: Their own initiative, yeah.
Hovik: But what’s interesting is that while that’s implied that the Pashinyan will change the constitution, and they have said that they will change it After the elections, the Armenian government has said the draft for the new constitution is almost ready, and they actually promised for it to be ready before the elections. But now, all of a sudden, Srbuhi Galyan, has said that they’re still working on the draft, but it might not be ready before the June 7th elections. So why is there a secrecy around this? Why couldn’t the public be better informed on what exactly is Pashinyan trying to change?
Asbed: Let me make a quick note. It’s not that it’s not the draft is not ready. They have decided not to show it, not to share it with people.
Hovik: Well, Pashinyan walked back and saying that there are a few things that are not ready yet. So he did say that they’re not ready. But, you know, so why? But we’re understanding it as they’re trying to keep it secret because it’s going to be a horrible, horrible deal for us and humiliation.
But so Maybe that’s my opinion. I wanted Dzziunik to comment on that. And also, what can the opposition do in order to make this a bigger campaign issue? Because it seems like I think that Pashinyan is withholding that from the campaign because it will be a losing issue in the campaign trail.
Dziunik: Yes, you’re right. It will be a losing issue. It will be killing chances of him being re-elected and he doesn’t want to lose any of his possible voters. As I mentioned, it’s not only the independence declaration issue there, it’s not only Artsakh issue, it’s also about the church, it’s also about other issues and possibly the men and women being accepted as the only genders in the constitution.
So there are many issues there that will be playing against their chances of having the possibility of some kind of a positive outcome. And the public, even those that are still showing some support towards them, will just close the doors on their faces. I think what they initially wanted, stating that in March they will publish the draft of the constitution and they will open up for the public discussion, the attempt was to show Azerbaijan that they have really taken out the reference to the Declaration of Independence and other issues that they have committed to change according to their agreements with both Azeri and Turkish side.
But given their polling results, they decided to simply take it away right now. And then with the possible, they want, that’s one of the reasons that I stated, they want a constitutional majority so that after the elections, they can simply put it through the National Assembly rather than through referendum, which is demanded according to the current constitution.
Hovik: I want to also cover this one last issue today. Now, the contrast is hard to ignore. While Pashinyan publicly stages moments of personal intervention, you know, like resolving an elderly woman’s broken shower. This is a real, you know, this is not fake news.
He actually publicly on TV resolved someone’s broken shower issue and it was presented like as a great accomplishment. And he framed it as a goodwill rather than bribery. At the same time, his government is intensifying pressure on the opposition through arrests and bribery accusations. Last week, the Armenian government arrested 14 opposition members based on these accusations.
Now, this case involves the strong Armenia party. And even in the released recordings, we didn’t hear any evidence of wrongdoing. We just heard some discussions about buying pants or clothes for some women or for some people.
And there’s also this case that I heard very recently where an elderly diabetic woman was hauled off to the police station and they said, that we know that you have received uh insulin from one of the opposition parties um uh as a vote bribe but there was no such evidence and this woman later came to the talk to the media and said that the only thing i may have done is called one of the opposition parties asking for insulin because i need it for my medical condition um so while there is no clear proof of wrongdoing there is clear evidence of massive surveillance.
I mean, essentially, everyone from the opposition is being surveilled and wiretapped. And this raises serious questions about whether state resources are being essentially massively used for only one purpose, which is to stymie democratic competition. I mean, for what? I mean, in the light of this May gala that Armenia is holding for European countries, it’ll have two major European events in Armenia.
Would it be so easy, in your opinion, for Eurocrats to look past the arrests, the surveillance, while engaging with Pashinyan as a so-called democratic partner?
Dziunik: Well… The answer to your question, are the European bureaucrats going to look away from all this evidence? I’m answering yes. And because they want him to be elected because he’s the only person that can fulfill their demands and desires.
So don’t expect any fair assessment of the situation from them. Secondly, The repression is going to increase. We know that. And the intention of the current ruling party is to first depict strong Armenia as the party or the movement that does not have support and that simply they are buying support.
So, and secondly, with these artificial and faked attempts of so-called bribes being presented, as you mentioned, even in this surveillance materials, there’s nothing that, first, they have no legal right to surveil these people, but even though they have done that, even in that material, they cannot find something that has any criminality or any wrongdoing in it, but they want to create some kind of a legal basis for them not to register the stronger Armenia. one of the strongest current opposition polls out of the equation.
So this is their attempt, because they know none of the opposition parties by themselves will gain the majority, but they can work together. And they want to take one of the strongest parties out, simply trying to present that they are using money to gain support, which is considered, according to the electoral process, is criminal crime. So this is just an attempt to get some kind of a legal basis for their further actions that they are planning to take. But I think it’s not working.
I don’t know what else will come, but I don’t think it’s working. And people in strong Armenia, they know well that they are being looked and surveilled probably even during the time when they are sleeping and they are very cautious not to allow any kind of move or step that will be misrepresented and will damage their chances of being registered and taking part in the elections. And that goes both on other parties as well. So everybody in that area has to be cautious and has to be extra vigilant and not to allow any manipulation to give reason for any kind of legal action.
Hovik: So in the context of all these repressions, maybe as a parting statement, what can the opposition do and what are your hopes from the during elections?
Dziunik: Well, first, the opposition has to speak openly with the public and show the real face of this government, which, of course, they are doing. And they have to go into the regions. They have to talk to people. They have to explain the devastating outcome if this party is reelected. and the actual evidence that is in their hands to present to people and to explain what will be the next step with the more than 300,000 Azeris immediately thrown into Armenia, Armenia turning into Western Azerbaijan, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
And this will happen very quickly. So nobody will even have time to open their eyes and see what is happening. That will be very quickly until the people realize what they are facing. So they have to work with the people.
They have to explain the security risks. They have to explain the plans, how they’re going to put the country back into its feet. without revealing much of the details, but at least with the economic plans, with social plans, with their achievements that have their past positive examples to show what they can do and how they can engage people in the remaking of the country into one of the trusted and prosperous press members of the international community. So this is something that they have to do. And it’s a hard work, given the brainwashing that the people have gone through during the last two decades.
It’s not going to be easy, but I think many have already understood. And with this kind of expressions that we hear from the person sitting in the leading position in the government, the actual expressions that we hear both from Azerbaijani and Turkish sides. I think people are becoming more and more understanding of the actual situation and what the future they will face if they just choose the wrong side.
Asbed: Ambassador, thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your time and insight.
Dziunik: Thank you very much.
Asbed: Thank you.
Dziunik: Thank you.
Asbed: Hovik, that was our Week in Review, recorded on April 20, 2026. We’ve been talking with Ms. Dziunik Aghajanian, who has served Armenia through the ranks of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and most recently as a diplomat as Armenia’s ambassador to such countries as the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Indonesia. She received her education at Yerevan State University, Columbia University in New York, and Uppsala University in Sweden.
Hovik: All right. Well, this was another episode behind us. Don’t forget to COMMENT, LIKE, SHARE. And, of course, we’ll also be grateful if you can donate monetarily.
Podcasts.groong.org/donate is the URL. Thanks for all your support. I am Hovik Manucharyan. And I’m Asbed Bedrossian.
Asbed: We’ll talk to you next week.
Hovik: Have a great week.