Groong Links:
Guest:
Mr. Balian’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Peacemaking-Nagorno-Karabakh-Opportunities-Rethinking/dp/3032124891
Topics:
- US-Iran war and failed diplomacy
- TRIPP and Armenia’s security risks
- Karabakh negotiations and missed chances
- Pashinyan’s Artsakh policy reversal
- Armenia’s June elections and monitoring
Episode 538 | Recorded: April 30, 2026
#HrairBalian #Groong #Armenia #Artsakh #NagornoKarabakh #TRIPP #ZangezurCorridor #ArmenianElections
Show Notes
Summary
Hrair Balian joins us to discuss his book Anatomy of Peacemaking: Nagorno Karabakh Conflict & Missed Opportunities, the failure of diplomacy around Artsakh, and what Armenia should learn from the long collapse of the peace process. The conversation also looks at the Iran war, US and Israeli goals in the region, the TRIPP/Zangezur Corridor and its security impact on Armenia, and the role of outside powers in shaping outcomes in the South Caucasus. The episode closes with a discussion of Armenia’s June parliamentary elections, opposition repression, election monitoring, and whether international observers will judge the vote by facts on the ground or political convenience.Main Topics Addressed
- US-Iran relations and failed diplomacy
- Israeli and US interests in the Iran war
- Prospects for a negotiated end to the current conflict
- TRIPP, also known as the Zangezur Corridor
- Armenia’s sovereignty and security risks
- Iran’s red lines in the South Caucasus
- Hrair Balian’s book on Karabakh negotiations
- Missed opportunities in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process
- Secret or unreleased negotiation documents
- Russia, the West, and the South Caucasus after 2014
- Pashinyan’s shift on Artsakh
- The future of Artsakh and the right of return
- Armenia’s June parliamentary elections
- OSCE/ODIHR election monitoring and political bias concerns
Key Questions Discussed
- Did modern US-Iran tensions begin in 1979, 1953, or earlier?
- Was there ever a serious diplomatic effort between the US and Iran?
- Do US and Israeli interests align in the war on Iran?
- What is the end goal of the US-Israeli war on Iran?
- Is a negotiated solution still possible?
- Does TRIPP provide any security guarantee for Armenia?
- Can a future Armenian government renegotiate TRIPP with stronger safeguards?
- How does TRIPP relate to the November 2020 ceasefire statement and Russia’s assigned role?
- What lessons should Armenia draw from regional war and failed diplomacy?
- Why have parts of the Karabakh negotiation record remained secret?
- What were the main reasons the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks failed?
- After 2014 or 2018, did the US prioritize conflict resolution or pressure on Russia?
- Was Armenia’s post-2018 course toward the West a sound strategy or a dangerous misread?
- Was the loss of Artsakh unavoidable?
- What should be made of the 2019 proposal to Armenia?
- Why did Pashinyan’s position on Artsakh shift so sharply after 2021?
- Is the Artsakh chapter closed, and what would it mean if it is not?
- Can Armenia’s June elections be judged free and fair under current conditions?
- Will international monitors assess the election based on facts or politics?
- How should Armenia’s opposition work with election monitoring organizations?
Referenced Articles & Sources
Երևանում ԵՄ գագաթնաժողովը եզակի հնարավորություն է՝ բարձրացնելու գերիների խնդիրը
European summits in Yerevan mark a unique opportunity to seek release of detainees in Baku
Wrap-up
Links and Resources
That’s our show, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.
Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.
Guests
Hrair Balian
Hrair Balian has served in leadership positions with the UN as Director of the SG’s High Representative Office in Ivory Coast (2006-2008), the OSCE/ODIHR as Head of Elections (1998-2003) and NGOs, including with the Carter Center as Director of Conflict Resolution (2008-2022) as well as with the International Crisis Group as Director of its Bosnia and Herzegovina field office (1996-1998).
During a 35-year career in public service, he has worked on conflict resolution, elections and human rights in the Balkans, Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East and Africa. Hrair Balian has also taught conflict resolution, negotiations, and mediation at the Emory University School of Law (2008-2018). Book publication – Anatomy of Peacemaking: Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict & Missed Opportunities (Palgrave Macmillan, Feb 2016). Armenian title of the book: “ԱՆԱՎԱՐՏ ԽԱՂԱՂՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ - Ղարաբաղյան հակամարտությունն ու բաց թողնված հնարավորությունները (April 2026, Newmag).
Hosts
Asbed Bedrossian
Asbed Bedrossian is an IT professional, and for years oversaw the central IT enterprise infrastructure and services at USC. His decades of experience spanned across IT strategy, enterprise architecture, infrastructure, cybersecurity, enterprise applications, data center operations, high performance computing, ITSM, ITPM, and more.
Asbed founded the Armenian News Network Groong circa 1989/1990, and co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020.
Hovik Manucharyan
Hovik Manucharyan is an information security engineer who moved from Seattle to Armenia in 2022. He co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020 and has been a contributor to Groong News since the late 1990s.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by Hovik Manucharyan on the ANN/Groong podcast are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of his employer or any other organization.