Eldar Mamedov - Iran War: The Northern Front | Ep 525, Mar 22, 2026 [EP525]

Scheduled for Sunday, Mar 22, 2026 | Category: Iran, Politics | Series: cog, video

Groong Links:

Guest:

Eldar Mamedov

Topics:

Iran at War
The Northern Front: Turkey & Azerbaijan
Changing Nakhijevan’s Constitution

Episode 525 | Recorded: March 20, 2026

#GroongPodcast #EldarMamedov #IranWar #Azerbaijan #SouthCaucasus

Show Notes

In this episode of Conversations on Groong, we speak with Eldar Mamedov about the widening regional dimensions of the Iran war, with a focus on Azerbaijan’s role, the risk of a northern front, and the strategic interests of Israel, Turkey, and the United States. We examine whether there are any realistic offramps to end the war, how tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have evolved after the Nakhijevan flareup, what Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel may mean in practice, and how recent constitutional changes in Nakhijevan may reflect deeper geopolitical shifts.

Main Topics Addressed

The search for realistic offramps in the Iran war, and the conditions under which the main parties might consider negotiations.
Azerbaijan’s officially neutral posture toward Iran, and the recurring moments when tensions break into the open.
Eldar Mamedov’s argument that Azerbaijan is unlikely to directly join the war against Iran, despite inflammatory rhetoric and periodic escalation.
The March 5 drone strike on Nakhijevan International Airport, Iran’s false flag claim, and the broader significance of the episode.
The role of ethnic Azerbaijani rhetoric in Iran, and whether it reflects pressure tactics, domestic messaging, or a deeper strategic shift.
Azerbaijan’s close relationship with Israel, including military cooperation, oil supplies, and possible indirect involvement in the war.
Whether Azerbaijan serves Israel as a logistical asset, intelligence platform, or potential northern front against Iran.
Reports of an Israeli Air Force strike on Iranian naval sites on the Caspian Sea, and speculation over possible launch routes.
Divergences and overlaps between Turkish and Azerbaijani interests in the context of the Iran war.
Recent constitutional amendments that reduce Nakhijevan’s autonomy and remove references to the treaties of Moscow and Kars.

Key Questions Discussed

Under what conditions might the sides accept negotiations rather than continue the war?
What are the incentives and goals driving each side in the conflict?
Is the current situation between Azerbaijan and Iran under control?
What explains Aliyev’s aggressive escalation and subsequent de-escalation?
What evidence suggests that Baku will stop short of direct military engagement?
How should Aliyev’s language about Azerbaijanis in Iran be understood?
Does Israel view Azerbaijan as a logistical asset, an intelligence platform, or a potential northern front?
How much influence do Washington’s neoconservative circles have on Azerbaijan’s posture toward Iran?
If Azerbaijan does not formally join the war, what forms of indirect involvement or escalation are most plausible?
How have Iranian and Azerbaijani media portrayed the reported Caspian Sea attack?
Where do Baku and Ankara’s interests diverge, and do they view the Iran war through the same lens?
Is Azerbaijan’s hosting of US and Israeli presence in Nakhijevan and occupied Artsakh a concern for Turkey?
Could Azerbaijan play a role in any future dismemberment of Iran, and under what circumstances?
What is the significance of Nakhijevan’s reduced autonomy and the removal of references to the Moscow and Kars treaties?

Referenced Articles & Sources

Wrap-up

Links and Resources

That’s our Week in Review, we hope you found it helpful. We invite your feedback and your suggestions, you can find us on most social media and podcast platforms.

Thanks to Laura Osborn for the music on our podcasts.

Guests

Eldar Mamedov

Eldar Mamedov is a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute and a member of the Pugwash Council on Science & World Affairs, a Nobel Peace Prize–winning Track II diplomacy organization committed to pursuing a world free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.

Eldar has more than 30 years of professional foreign policy experience. As a Latvian diplomat from 1994–2003, he served in his country’s embassies in Washington D.C. and Madrid, Spain, where he focused on Latvia’s integration to NATO and the E.U.

From 2007–2024, Eldar served as a foreign policy adviser in the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium and Strasbourg, France, where he accrued deep expertise in the E.U.’s relations with Iran and countries in the Persian Gulf and South Caucasus. During this time, Eldar drafted and negotiated parliamentary motions on relations with these countries, organized multiple missions to Iran and the Persian Gulf, and participated in backchannel diplomacy.

Eldar is a regular contributor to Responsible Statecraft, The American Conservative, and Eurasianet.org, where he writes on E.U. foreign policy and the Middle East. Eldar has also produced publications for The National Interest, the Stimson Center, and Amwaj.media, and has provided his expertise to CNN International, Politico, Al Jazeera, El Pais, Deutsche Welle and other international outlets.

Eldar is fluent in English, Spanish, Russian, and Latvian.

Hosts

Asbed Bedrossian

Asbed Bedrossian is an IT professional, and for years oversaw the central IT enterprise infrastructure and services at USC. His decades of experience spanned across IT strategy, enterprise architecture, infrastructure, cybersecurity, enterprise applications, data center operations, high performance computing, ITSM, ITPM, and more.

Asbed founded the Armenian News Network Groong circa 1989/1990, and co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020.

Hovik Manucharyan

Hovik Manucharyan is an information security engineer who moved from Seattle to Armenia in 2022. He co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020 and has been a contributor to Groong News since the late 1990s.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by Hovik Manucharyan on the ANN/Groong podcast are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of his employer or any other organization.