David Davidian - Armenia’s Foreign Intel Service Annual Report | Ep 511, Jan 29, 2026 [EP511]

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Guest:

• David Davidian

Topics:

• Return of Four Hostages
• Pashinyan vs. Church
• TRIPP
• Armenia Parliamentary Election

Episode 511 | Recorded: January 28, 2026

Show Notes

Summary

David Davidian reviews Armenia’s 2026 External Security Risk Assessment from the Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) and argues it reads like a generic public document, not a usable intelligence product. He and the hosts discuss why the FIS was split from the National Security Service, what a real risk assessment should deliver (priorities, methods, and actionable guidance), and where the report falls short. The conversation also covers how the report uses “hybrid threats,” how it frames Azerbaijan and the risk of escalation, and why the technology section (AI, data centers, GPUs) raises security and civil-liberty concerns if the state lacks data safeguards and governance.

Main Topics Addressed

• Why Armenia created a standalone Foreign Intelligence Service

  • The case for separating foreign intelligence from internal security functions
  • Questions about institutional maturity and leadership background

• What a public-facing intelligence report should do

  • State clear priorities and define what “risk” means in practice
  • Explain methods behind judgments (not just labels)
  • Provide actionable guidance, not only thematic coverage

• Probability language and analytic rigor

  • Critique of how the report assigns probability categories
  • What is missing: ranking, justification, and triggers that would change an assessment

• “Hybrid threats” versus soft power

  • “Hybrid” treated as a catch-all category
  • Is “hybrid” used as a political frame instead of an analytical lens?

• Azerbaijan and the “escalation is unlikely” framing

  • How the report treats escalation risk after the Washington track (August 8 meeting in the White House)
  • Emphasis on hard-security realities raised in the discussion, including continued occupation of Armenian territory

• TRIPP and strategic exposure

  • How TRIPP-related dynamics could shape Armenia’s risk landscape under regional escalation scenarios
  • Trade-route vulnerability and leverage risks tied to corridor politics

• Technology, AI, and data centers

  • Skepticism toward “AI/data center” messaging without a national strategy
  • Data custody, governance, and exposure to foreign leverage
  • Concerns about surveillance systems, personal data misuse, and weak safeguards
  • Concerns over the lack of policy, and good practice

Key Questions Discussed

• Why split foreign intelligence out of the NSS, and what problem was it meant to solve?
• What should a national risk assessment deliver that this report does not?
• How should probabilities be justified, audited, and updated?
• Is “hybrid threat” being used as an analytic category, or as a political label?
• How should Armenia assess escalation risk with Azerbaijan, and what gets underweighted?
• What does “AI” mean as a security issue for a small state, and who controls the data?
• What safeguards exist, or should exist, against misuse of surveillance and personal data?
• How should Armenia assess TRIPP-linked exposure if a major regional escalation unfolds?

Referenced Articles & Sources

• Critical Evaluation: Strategic Deficiencies in the 2026 External Security Risk Assessment of Armenia (David Davidian, Shadow Diplomat)
• Annual Report on External Security Risks of the Republic of Armenia for 2026 (FIS, English PDF)

Wrap-up

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