Show Notes

Summary

Fyodor Lukyanov joins Groong to discuss how Moscow reads a fast-shifting global landscape, from the U.S. raid in Venezuela and maritime seizures at sea, to Trump’s Greenland rhetoric, the stalled endgame in Ukraine, the likelihood of a renewed Israel-Iran war, and how TRIPP and “unblocking” disputes in Armenia’s south fit into Russia’s regional priorities.

Main Topics Addressed

Venezuela, U.S. power projection, and what Russia can (and cannot) do in response
Greenland and U.S. territorial rhetoric, viewed from Moscow
Ukraine war endgame, Europe’s posture, and Russia-West negotiations
Russia-Iran relations after the June 2025 Israel-Iran war, and prospects of a second round
TRIPP, “Zangezur Corridor,” Nov. 2020 point 9, and Russia’s expectations in Armenia’s south
Armenia’s June elections and foreign influence narratives

Key Questions Discussed

Venezuela

What is Russia’s perspective on the U.S. abduction of Nicolás Maduro?
How does Moscow interpret “our hemisphere” thinking and open U.S. coercion?
What is Russia’s reaction to U.S. and UK-backed seizures of Russian-flagged tankers at sea?
Are there parallels between U.S. claims in the Americas and Russia’s position on Ukraine?

Greenland

Does Moscow see Trump’s Greenland rhetoric as serious, or as political theater?
Does Greenland matter to Russia’s Arctic security calculus?

Ukraine war

Why is the war still going on as it approaches year four?
Where do Russia-West negotiations stand right now?
Does Putin see Trump as negotiating in good faith?
What would “closure” actually require, and what are the realistic off-ramps?
Has the war made Russia more dependent on China, and did it open space for the West in places like the South Caucasus and Central Asia?

Russia and Iran

Is a second Israel-Iran war inevitable, and is Iran more prepared this time?
Has the Venezuela episode changed Russia’s calculus on how far it should go to help Iran?
If Russia will not intervene militarily, what non-military tools does it still have?

TRIPP and Russian-Armenian relations

What does Russia expect regarding east-west “unblocking” in Armenia’s south and the wider “Middle Corridor” debate?
Why might Russia be re-engaging in the South Caucasus now?
How important is the Armenia-Iran border and the north-south corridor to Russia’s interests?
Does TRIPP risk inserting U.S. or Israeli assets near Iran, and does Moscow view that as a strategic problem?
How does Russia view disputes around Russian Railways and Armenia’s rail concession?

Armenian elections

Does the outcome of Armenia’s June elections matter to Russia?
How does Russia view EU-funded programs framed as countering “foreign influence,” especially “Russian influence”?
Is Pashinyan’s administration still a workable partner for Moscow?

Referenced Articles & Sources

US actions in Venezuela ‘constitute a dangerous precedent’: Guterres (news.un.org)
United States Action in Venezuela Puts Sovereignty of States, International Law at Stake, Many Speakers Tell Security Council (SC/16271) (press.un.org)
UK confirms military support for U.S. seizure of tanker (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)
Paris Declaration: “Robust Security Guarantees for a Solid and Lasting Peace in Ukraine,” statement of the Coalition of the Willing issued by France (consilium.europa.eu)
Aliyev Confident About ‘Zangezur Corridor’ Through Armenia (azatutyun.am)
Pashinian Insists On Repairs Of Armenia’s Rail Links With Azerbaijan, Turkey (azatutyun.am)
Armenian Government Seeks Pre-Election ‘Help’ From EU (azatutyun.am)

Wrap-up

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Fyodor Lukyanov - Russia in Evolving Global Geopolitics | Ep 502, Jan 10, 2026 [EP502]

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