Show Notes

Summary

In this first Week in Review of 2026, we’re joined by Hrant Mikaelian as we examine three developments shaping Armenia’s political environment and regional context. We begin with the unprecedented U.S. abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the implications for international law and smaller states. We then turn to the escalating confrontation between the Armenian government and the Armenian Apostolic Church, including renewed efforts to restructure the Church ahead of 2026. We conclude with a detailed review of the latest MPG poll results and an assessment of Armenia’s economic performance and rising national debt in 2025.

Developments in Venezuela

The United States carried out a special forces operation in Caracas that resulted in the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from his official residence. The operation was widely condemned as a violation of international law, while several Western leaders publicly welcomed the outcome. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez signaled conditional cooperation with Washington, amid reports that elements within the Venezuelan leadership may have coordinated with the U.S. through intermediaries.

China and Russia criticized the operation and called for emergency discussions at the UN Security Council, but neither appears prepared to intervene directly. The episode raises fundamental questions about the collapse of international legal norms and the strategic logic behind Washington’s move.

Key questions discussed:

Is international law effectively dead?
Will Russia and China respond meaningfully, or accept the precedent?
Could Venezuela become part of a broader geopolitical trade-off, such as Ukraine?
What lessons should Armenia draw from this incident?

Attacks on the Armenian Apostolic Church Continue

Christmas Day in Armenia unfolded amid heightened tension as state media ignored the official Christmas Mass in Etchmiadzin, while Pashinyan attended a parallel service led by renegade clergy. Days earlier, the Prime Minister and a small group of bishops released a renewed “roadmap” for Church reform, including removing the Catholicos, appointing a vicar, renaming the Church, and imposing new governance mechanisms.

Critics argue this mirrors the government’s earlier approach to the judiciary and reflects either a personal vendetta or a broader attempt to neutralize an independent national institution ahead of the 2026 elections.

Key questions discussed:

What political stage is being set for 2026 between the state and the Church?
Why have a small number of bishops sided with the government?
Is this campaign driven by geopolitics, personal grievance, or power consolidation?
Are these reforms genuine or punitive?

MPG Poll Analysis

Methodology

The MPG poll was conducted using CATI methodology with a sample of 1,000 respondents and a margin of error of approximately ±3 percent. The survey captures public attitudes toward national direction, social cohesion, trust in institutions, and political participation.

Slide 3 – Most Important Issues Facing Armenia

MPG Slide 3

National security remains the top concern for respondents, followed by high expenses and low wages, the overall state of the economy, unemployment, and inflation. The dominance of security and economic issues suggests persistent public anxiety despite official narratives of peace and economic growth.

Slide 4 – Direction of the Country

MPG Slide 4

A plurality of respondents believe Armenia is moving in the wrong direction. Only a minority feel the country is on the right track, reinforcing perceptions of stagnation and uncertainty.

Slide 5 – Public Mood in Recent Months

MPG Slide 5

More than 60 percent of respondents describe the political situation as “very tense” or “rather tense.” Only a small fraction report calm conditions. This aligns with visible polarization, elite conflict, and the state–Church confrontation.

Discussion points:

What are the consequences of prolonged societal tension?
How does this square with the government’s “peace agenda”?
Why has poverty remained high after eight years in power?

Slides 6–7 – The Voice of the People

Slide 6 – Ability to Influence Decisions

MPG Slide 6

A slim majority believe they can influence political decisions, while a large minority feel powerless. This points to mixed civic confidence.

Slide 7 – Fear of Expressing Opinions

MPG Slide 7

Most respondents report they are not afraid to express their views openly, suggesting a degree of social defiance or optimism despite political pressure.

Discussion points:

Will this translate into higher turnout in the June 2026 election?
Could participation alter the political trajectory?

Slides 8–13 – Solidarity and Trust in Institutions

Slide 8 – Overall Political Situation

MPG Slide 8

A majority perceive high polarization, while a significant minority still see harmony and calm.

MPG Slide 9

Nearly 90 percent agree that Armenia needs greater social harmony across political divides.

Slide 10 – Obstacles to Solidarity

MPG Slide 10

Respondents cite fake news media, lack of social security, political polarization, and low trust in government as the main obstacles. Religious and cultural issues rank much lower.

Slide 11 – Trust in Institutions

MPG Slide 11

The Armenian Church ranks highest in public trust, while the media ranks lowest. Government institutions perform poorly but are not at the bottom.

Slides 12–13 – Leadership for Healing and Unity

MPG Slide 13

Respondents express limited confidence in political figures to lead social healing, pointing instead toward institutions outside formal politics.

Discussion points:

What does high trust in the Church amid a state–Church conflict reveal?
Is the confrontation politically miscalculated?
What does low trust in media imply when most people consume pro-government outlets?

Armenian Economy in 2025 (January–October)

Against the economic anxiety revealed in the poll, we review findings from the Luys Foundation report. Major underperformance is recorded in capital expenditures, particularly in defense, infrastructure, education, tourism, and digital transformation.

State debt has increased sharply, adding roughly $1.4 billion in nine months and more than doubling since 2018. Despite rising debt, there is little evidence of corresponding capital projects, job creation, or wage growth.

Key questions discussed:

How does underperformance affect ordinary citizens?
Should rising national debt be a major concern?
If debt is rising, where is the money going?
What does this say about the efficiency of public administration?

Referenced Articles & Sources

Venezuela, US Special Forces Operation, International Reactions

Armenia, Church-State Confrontation

Armenia, Economy and Public Finance

Wrap-up

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Hrant Mikaelian - Venezuela, Attacks on the Armenian Church Continue, MPG Poll Results | Ep 501, Jan 4, 2026 [EP501]

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Show Notes

Summary

Developments in Venezuela

Attacks on the Armenian Apostolic Church Continue

MPG Poll Analysis

Methodology

Slide 3 – Most Important Issues Facing Armenia

Slide 4 – Direction of the Country

Slide 5 – Public Mood in Recent Months