Eldar Mamedov - The Global Geopolitics Surrounding the South Caucasus | Ep 492, Dec 1, 2025 [EP492]
Posted on Monday, Dec 1, 2025 | Category: World Order, TRIPP | Series: cog, video
Groong Links:
Guest:
Topics:
- US and Venezuela
- Potential for New War on Iran
- Is Azerbaijan a “Middle Power”?
- Europe’s Confused Geopolitical Identity
- Armenia’s Confused Geopolitics
Episode 492 | Recorded: November 29, 2025
#IranCrisis #AzerbaijanPolitics #EuropeanGeopolitics #ArmeniaSecurity #SouthCaucasus #GlobalPowerPolitics
Show Notes
This Conversations on Groong episode features Eldar Mamedov, former Latvian diplomat, non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, and member of the Pugwash Council on Science & World Affairs.
We discuss rising global tensions following Israel’s war on Iran, Azerbaijan’s expanding geopolitical ambitions, Europe’s unclear foreign policy, and the risks Armenia faces while trying to reposition itself in a turbulent neighborhood.
Topics Covered
- Breaking developments around Venezuela and U.S. military signaling
- The potential for a renewed Iran–Israel conflict
- Azerbaijan’s Middle East strategy and ties with Israel
- Europe’s fragmented and reactive geopolitical posture
- Armenia’s uncertain turn toward Europe amid regional instability
Key Questions Discussed
- What does Washington’s move on Venezuelan airspace signal?
- How likely is a new Iran war, and what did the June fighting reveal?
- How does Azerbaijan’s partnership with Israel shape Iran’s threat perception?
- What role might Turkey or Azerbaijan play in a worst-case scenario inside Iran?
- What is Baku trying to achieve in the Middle East?
- Why is Europe resistant to diplomatic off-ramps in Ukraine?
- Can Europe act as an independent geopolitical force?
- What can Europe realistically offer Armenia in security terms?
- What posture should Armenia adopt amid rising regional risks?
Referenced Articles & Sources
Armenia’s Self-Defeating Path https://www.theamericanconservative.com/armenia-treads-a-self-defeating-path/
Azerbaijan in the Middle East (Le Monde Diplomatique) https://mondediplo.com/outsidein/azerbaijan-middle-east
Westerners Rushing to Defend Azerbaijan Against Russia https://braveneweurope.com/eldar-mamedov-westerners-foolishly-rush-to-defend-azerbaijan-against-russia
Aravot Interview / Commentary https://en.aravot.am/2025/08/10/361837
Is European Lobbying of Trump a Sign of Strength or Weakness? https://quincyinst.org/2025/08/20/is-european-lobbying-of-trump-a-sign-of-strength-or-weakness/
The U.S. and Russia Come Together on Syria https://quincyinst.org/2025/03/11/the-u-s-and-russia-come-together-on-syria/
Interview in The European Conservative https://europeanconservative.com/articles/interviews/europes-getting-sidelined-and-its-got-itself-to-blame-policy-expert-eldar-mamedov
Reuters on Venezuelan Airspace Closure https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-venezuela-be-closed-its-entirety-2025-11-29/
The Intercept on U.S. Caribbean Buildup https://theintercept.com/2025/11/25/trump-caribbean-venezuela-military-troops/
Wrap-up
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Guests
Eldar Mamedov
Eldar Mamedov is a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute and a member of the Pugwash Council on Science & World Affairs, a Nobel Peace Prize–winning Track II diplomacy organization committed to pursuing a world free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.
Eldar has more than 30 years of professional foreign policy experience. As a Latvian diplomat from 1994–2003, he served in his country’s embassies in Washington D.C. and Madrid, Spain, where he focused on Latvia’s integration to NATO and the E.U.
From 2007–2024, Eldar served as a foreign policy adviser in the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium and Strasbourg, France, where he accrued deep expertise in the E.U.’s relations with Iran and countries in the Persian Gulf and South Caucasus. During this time, Eldar drafted and negotiated parliamentary motions on relations with these countries, organized multiple missions to Iran and the Persian Gulf, and participated in backchannel diplomacy.
Eldar is a regular contributor to Responsible Statecraft, The American Conservative, and Eurasianet.org, where he writes on E.U. foreign policy and the Middle East. Eldar has also produced publications for The National Interest, the Stimson Center, and Amwaj.media, and has provided his expertise to CNN International, Politico, Al Jazeera, El Pais, Deutsche Welle and other international outlets.
Eldar is fluent in English, Spanish, Russian, and Latvian.
Hosts
Hovik Manucharyan
Hovik Manucharyan is an information security engineer who moved from Seattle to Armenia in 2022. He co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020 and has been a contributor to Groong News since the late 1990s.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by Hovik Manucharyan on the ANN/Groong podcast are his own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of his employer or any other organization.
Asbed Bedrossian
Asbed Bedrossian is an IT professional, and for years oversaw the central IT enterprise infrastructure and services at USC. His decades of experience spanned across IT strategy, enterprise architecture, infrastructure, cybersecurity, enterprise applications, data center operations, high performance computing, ITSM, ITPM, and more.
Asbed founded the Armenian News Network Groong circa 1989/1990, and co-founded the ANN/Groong podcast in 2020.